Guild Wars 2

Is there anything wrong with the conversion rates? I’ve used over 200 of each items in the recipe( x10 recipe) and got like only 10 clovers in total. Shouldn’t the rates be better than this? I read about the rates being 33% on average, getting 10 clovers from 200 is more of 5%.

Wow, thats really horrible!
I did the 10x recipe 15 times and got myself 60 clovers, which is the average rate.
Many of our guildies had a average rate at 10:30.

If that’s the average rate, I got no clue why my rate is like 10 clovers out of 20 tries. =( Huge waste of gold and resource there =(

It could just be a bit of bad luck (bad rolls of the RNG). The estimate of 30% sounds pretty close to what I have recieved on mine.

From what I’ve read the method for 10 has a lower conversion rate than the 1 method.

I used 101 shards today and got 33 clovers.

Remember you have 66% chance to fail. The worst luck I had was 10 mystic clover out of hte 150 shards I used. The 33%chance was based off of all of the data player have stated about mystic clovers. The more attempts you use to better chance you have of averaging out to 33%, that is why the 1 mystic clover is the safest way to get mystic clover.

I got 154 clovers out of 434 tries with the single clover method. so: pretty much 33%.
U sir got very bad luck there, i dont envy you at all.

props and gl on further tries!

When people say that the 10 Clover Recipe is better, they are full of kittens. Why?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers

There is a bigger chance of you being screwed if you reduce your sample numbers. Using the 10 Clover Recipe, you gambled with 20 chances. Had you used the single Clover Recipe, you would have had 200 chances to gamble instead, increasing your odds of actualy getting to the average of 1:3 chances.

You got screwed by statistics my friend. Plain. And. Simple.

Use the 1 clover recipe not 10

I guess I was lucky. I used the 10x recipe to get to 70 and the 1x to get the 7. I didn’t do it all at one time.

The 10x only failed about three times. Getting the 7 was quite painful – took me about 20 tries to get 7. I got some useless crap like wood/leather/bones but I also got about 5 Destroyer lodestones, which were worth 1g 30s each.

I used the 10x recipe twice. Once I got 10 clovers, the second time I got 32 powerful blood.
For the rest of mine, I did the 1 recipe.
One thing you need to remember is that it’s not a compounding thing. You do one recipe, you have a 66% chance to fail that recipe. You do the next one, you have a 66% chance to fail. It’s not like you do 3 recipes and you have a 33% chance to get one out of those 3 recipes. The chance is for that ONE attempt.
So if you attempted 100, there’s no guarantee that you’ll get 30 clovers. I hope this makes sense.

I had a friend do nine 10x attempts. He got 60 clovers. It’s just luck and RNG.

out of 3 attempts using the 10 clover recipe I ended up with 20 clovers and a lodestone.

I’m sitting around the given 33% so far using the 1x recipe. If you look at the discussion wiki page for the clovers, you’ll see the perceived difference between using the 10x and the 1x recipe.

At a 33% success rate, you’d need 24 attempts for the 10x recipe, and 231 for the 1x recipe. You’re more likely to land around 33% success with 231 tries than 24.

So yes, you were unlucky, but you were taking the higher risk/reward route :/

Well plenty of people told me to do the 10-clover recipe before I start crafting. So I guess it’s just some poor advice there. I guess I would have to start saving up again and definitely try the 1 clover recipe when I got enough mats again.

With 1 clover recipes, you get more tries. With more tries, you are more likely to get a result closer to the actual probability of clover rate.

On the bright side, those failed attempts should yield some promising mats for you!