Guild Wars 2

So I’ve been scouting the forums with regards to forging the precursor and I’ve only come to this conclusion: it’s total RNG with a huge variance. (Saw the guy who forged 12000+ rares throw in 8000+ Rares without a precursor)

According to the data he gave (I forgot to check his name) the chance of getting back an exotic from rares is around 20%, and according to gw2spidy.com, the min sale offer of the cheapest exotic shortbow (wanna craft dreamer) is 2g 40s at this point of time. Rares, on the other hand, cost 41s. That’s around 6 rares for 1 exotic.

I’m purely comparing items bought off the TP and not by crafting to simplify things, if not I would have to take into account individual material costs.

So my question is this: Developer Lindsay did mention that the higher the level and rarity, the higher the chance of getting a precursor is. So why not just get exotics directly (via crafting or TP) and mystic forge them for a higher chance? Yes. There may be a slightly higher cost in the long run, and much less forging attempts.. But isn’t it all worth it if you get your precursor earlier?

The chance isn’t much different from rares and exotics, but an exotic can be 6 to 10 times more valuable on the tp than a rare. If i can get maybe 1 or 2 more attempts off of selling an exotic. Then surely it can be more worthwhile to sell the exotic and get more rares.

i can tell you what happened to me: after some tries with rares (costs wasnt the actual one i spent a bit more) i tried exotics. 12 breath of flame and got dawn back.
of course the name of the exotics doesnt matter, they was just cheap.
i sold it and then i spent 60g of rares. nothing. 20g in exotics and got dusk.
anyway, theres a guy in the “post your legendary progress” that recorded his tries and found the colossus from 4 rares. i wouldnt try it, but i think if you dont have a lot of money to try rares are more affordable.
it would be really interesting to see if both dawn and dusk share the percent of other legendaries (for example they have 0.01%) or if they have 0.005+0.005.

Levitas.1953:

it would be really interesting to see if both dawn and dusk share the percent of other legendaries (for example they have 0.01%) or if they have 0.005+0.005.

I made a previous thread about that, but i couldn’t get a dev response on how two precursors of the same type were handled. But knowing how bad the rates can be i assume there is a coin toss to decide what is the precursor(if there are two greatswords).

Shuguard.7125:

Levitas.1953:

it would be really interesting to see if both dawn and dusk share the percent of other legendaries (for example they have 0.01%) or if they have 0.005+0.005.

I made a previous thread about that, but i couldn’t get a dev response on how two precursors of the same type were handled. But knowing how bad the rates can be i assume there is a coin toss to decide what is the precursor(if there are two greatswords).

I doubt they would put extra code in, they are probably just items on a table.

Ok.. So far I guess I’d still stick to using exotics I guess. cross fingers

Svarty.8019:

Shuguard.7125:

Levitas.1953:

it would be really interesting to see if both dawn and dusk share the percent of other legendaries (for example they have 0.01%) or if they have 0.005+0.005.

I made a previous thread about that, but i couldn’t get a dev response on how two precursors of the same type were handled. But knowing how bad the rates can be i assume there is a coin toss to decide what is the precursor(if there are two greatswords).

I doubt they would put extra code in, they are probably just items on a table.

Considering it deals with a very high quality item worth hundreds of gold I expect they would. Anet’s code can be sloppy at times, but they are being extra careful for something that could possibly damage their precious economy.

It’s the probably game you are playing with. Gambling on 2 chances, like putting all your money on a number AND having be Red color out of all colors if you use rares. YOu have to gamble if it will become an exotic first, then gamble on which exotic it’ll become so you are playing with 2 RNGs. If you use exotics, you are only playing for 1 RNG case so the odds are better.

well yesterday i got spark out of 128 gold, 70% were rare 40% were exotics(extra 10% cuz some rare turn into exotics)

It is difficult to tell which way is better, since there are some variables that you don’t know.

• Average Value of an exotic

• Average Value of an rare

• Probablity that rares will yield an exotic ( I guess 20% is a good value that is accepted by the community )

I wrote a little python script to look which is better. You can play around with the values to see when exotics are better than rares. But I think rares are better.
http://pastebin.com/CJpYDi07
I hope my math is right, altough I believe there should be an -1 somewhere in the rakeBack, since you won’t sell the precursor. It shouldn’t matter too much.
For the values there I get this output:
Rare: Average Number of attempts: 1000.0 avgCostPerPrecursor: 600g0s0c
Exotic: Average Number of attempts: 200.0 avgCostPerPrecursor: 1320g0s0c

edit:
Also this approach assumes that, if you get an exotic trough rares, the probability to get a precursor is the same as if you used exotics. Which might not be true, depends on how they implemented their tables.

edit2: An additional assumption would be that items, be it exotic or rare, all have the same level and type and even name? They are all the same I guess.

Nozdrum.2894:

edit:
Also this approach assumes that, if you get an exotic trough rares, the probability to get a precursor is the same as if you used exotics. Which might not be true, depends on how they implemented their tables.

I assume that they won’t discriminate exotics gotten from rares vs exotics you crafted/bought.. Cause that doesn’t make sense. An exotic is an exotic.

They already mentioned that the higher the level and rarity, the higher the chance of getting a precursor. Just that we obviously don’t know exactly how much higher.

I’m not 100% sure about your math and code, but from what I can see, you are assuming that the chance to get a precursor from both rares and exotic is the same. Which is untrue.

So lets say the chance of getting a precursor from exotics is 2x higher than from rares (a total assumption) then this will level ur costs of rares to around the same level as exotic…..

Which still doesn’t answer any questions, given that we will never know the chance of getting a precursor from either rares or exotics.

so i recently got a precursor gs finally from the forge, it took me roughly 1500-2k rares. From all those rares i received 2 named exotic greatswords, 1 dawn 1 ebonblade. I havnt really tested exotics the way i tested rares but from the 100 i did put in i still received no named or “special” gs back

I don’t think I understand what you wrote there, so I am going to explain a bit more.

Atroras.9481:

I’m not 100% sure about your math and code, but from what I can see, you are assuming that the chance to get a precursor from both rares and exotic is the same. Which is untrue.

What I do is:
chance of exotic * chance of precursor

For exotics this means “chance of exotic” is 1, since it will always yield an exotic.
For rare this means “chance of exotic” is 0.2, since only 1/5 of the time you will get an exotic ( Could be any number [0..1], not relevant here ), therefor the chance to get a precuros is lower infact 5 times lower.
So it is what I wrote in my assumption, that if you get an exotic it has the same chance of being a precursor, no matter how you got the exotic in the first place.

And then you write this

I assume that they won’t discriminate exotics gotten from rares vs exotics you crafted/bought.. Cause that doesn’t make sense. An exotic is an exotic.

Which is the same I wrote? I think?

What is interessting about this approach is that the actual chance to get a precursor is irrelevant and does not influence your decision about rares or exotics, all it does makes your precursor cheaper or more expensive.

The “20% chance to upgrade rarity in the mystic forge” deal seems to be a constant across other items like dyes too.

That said, the calculation should simply be “Can I get lev 80 rare weapons of that type for less than 1/5th the cost of lev 80 exotics of that type”? If the answer is yes, go ahead and use rares. You’ll probably need to craft them yourself to meet that criteria but that’s not a big deal.

Nozdrum.2894:

I don’t think I understand what you wrote there, so I am going to explain a bit more.

Atroras.9481:

I’m not 100% sure about your math and code, but from what I can see, you are assuming that the chance to get a precursor from both rares and exotic is the same. Which is untrue.

What I do is:
chance of exotic * chance of precursor

For exotics this means “chance of exotic” is 1, since it will always yield an exotic.
For rare this means “chance of exotic” is 0.2, since only 1/5 of the time you will get an exotic ( Could be any number [0..1], not relevant here ), therefor the chance to get a precuros is lower infact 5 times lower.
So it is what I wrote in my assumption, that if you get an exotic it has the same chance of being a precursor, no matter how you got the exotic in the first place.

And then you write this

I assume that they won’t discriminate exotics gotten from rares vs exotics you crafted/bought.. Cause that doesn’t make sense. An exotic is an exotic.

Which is the same I wrote? I think?

What is interessting about this approach is that the actual chance to get a precursor is irrelevant and does not influence your decision about rares or exotics, all it does makes your precursor cheaper or more expensive.

Ah ok thanks for clarifying. I think I get the picture now.. But I still do hope that u require less runs with exotics because the chance to get a precursor is higher I guess… Sorry for being stubborn. ;p

20% of getting a exotic back? Are you kidding me guys? I usually get exotic after 8-10 tries average. I can’t be that unlucky, I think chance is lower, at least 15%.

Anyway I’ve spent about 150 golds since now, obv no precursor. These are hard times to craft your precursor, rare staves costs about 40 silver, exotics about 2.2 gold.
Imho it’s better the rare recipe only because you get more satisfaction throwing into mystic toilets tons of weapons.

And this evening (if I’ll be able to relog) mystic toilet waits for me! About 90 staves into it again!

Guess i am one of those mathematical anomalies. I am at 334 rares and 948 exotics thrown into the MF, so far no precursor…

RNG is a kitten. Last night I spent roughly 50 gold and threw in 81 rares in the MF. Here are my results- 9 exotics, 6 of which were non named and the other 3 were Deathwish, Emberspire, and luckily The Legend

You are very lucky mate. I’m always between keep throwing rares and exotics into Mystic forge or save money and buy it at TP. Dunno if probabilities are from my side or not. Any advice?

Hmm try giving some lovin to Zommoros and maybe he’ll be nice to give you a precursor.

With T5 mats, mithril and elder wood being so easy to obtain with little effort required, crafting the rares and throwing them into the forge has never been easier. Yea exotics have higher odds but you’ll be at the mercy of the TP as you’re gonna have to buy your exotics.

Rashka.7304:

Guess i am one of those mathematical anomalies. I am at 334 rares and 948 exotics thrown into the MF, so far no precursor…

Sorry you have to be the outlier in the unlucky direction.

Also, your count for rares is off by 2. >_>

Iures.2894:

Rashka.7304:

Guess i am one of those mathematical anomalies. I am at 334 rares and 948 exotics thrown into the MF, so far no precursor…

Sorry you have to be the outlier in the unlucky direction.

Also, your count for rares is off by 2. >_>

Oh, a typo. I am off by 10. It is 344 rares which yielded 15 exotics, so a bit behind the curve there as well with 17.4%.

Rashka.7304:

Guess i am one of those mathematical anomalies. I am at 334 rares and 948 exotics thrown into the MF, so far no precursor…

A very humble estimate of 2g per exotic would easily set u back 500g… I wish u all the luck in getting the precursor, mate.

Do WvW bonus’ effect the mystic forge outcome at all?

Atroras.9481:

Rashka.7304:

Guess i am one of those mathematical anomalies. I am at 334 rares and 948 exotics thrown into the MF, so far no precursor…

A very humble estimate of 2g per exotic would easily set u back 500g… I wish u all the luck in getting the precursor, mate.

Thanks, it is the only obstacle left between me and the legendary. Cost in gold involved is a lot less than it seems on first glance though. It is more a question of time, not gold.

The other reason for my endurance is that under no circumstances i am willing to buy the precursor from the TP. From my perception precursor market is controlled and i am not going to support those individuals. I do have the necessary patience to carry on throwing items into the MF until i succeed.

Let me shed some light on this topic. I was a big victim of the mystic toilet and loosing gold. I first was going for Dusk/Dawn a few months ago and using lvl 80 rares and got screwed out of about 150g and I felt I was never gonna get a precursor. Today I felt the need to gamble so I went to the TP and bought what I thought was lvl 80 exotic hammers (50 of them for about 60g) but it turned out that they were level 71 exotics (derp). Oblivious to this I went ahead and started combining them and by some amazing luck I got The Colossus on my 6th try! I could not believe what I saw when I got it. Later I went to go sell the extra hammers I had left over and realized the ones I bought were lvl 71. Let me just say this is was VERY VERY VERY rare and lucky and I wouldn’t advise you to spend what little gold you have unless your determined. If you are so inclined I would recommend you use exotics, although they are more expensive, you will always get an exotic in return. So these exotics, from what I found, DO NOT have to be lvl 80! Not sure what the minimum lvl is but each time i used 71s I got an 80 back. Don’t hate me if you try and come up with nothing because believe me I know how it feels. But if you reallllllly want to give it a try id use exotics lvl 80 or not. Hope this helps and good luck to anyone who would like to give it a go!

The chance of getting back an exotic from rares is 20%.

The level of the rare or exotic you get out of the forge is based on the average level of the 4 rares you threw into it; it will randomly be between 5 and 12 levels higher than the average level of the rares you threw in. I have no data on what that distribution of levels is. If the average level of the rares you throw in is 75 or higher, you will always get a level 80 rare or exotic as a result.

However you got there, once you’ve made it onto the level 80 exotic table the odds are the same; you have a 1% chance of getting a precursor. That means a 1% chance per roll if you’re using exotics, and a 0.2% chance per roll if you’re using rares of at least average level 75.

sostronk.8167:

Do WvW bonus’ effect the mystic forge outcome at all?

No. Crafting Boosts and Magic Find do not affect Mystic Forge results.

the vid shows how to get precursor in 2min x)
something to share with community

Got my dusk after 12 exotic GS