Guild Wars 2

So after ~120 shards I have total of 16 clovers…:(
Whatever site I found about it says chances are I’ll get 1/3 but my rates are not even close to that.
Any of you guys currently crafting your legendary had similar experience or I’m being trolled hard by MF?

in 132984598675094434549 attempts the average chances is 1/3.
However, just because you have 1/3 chance to get something doesnt mean you will get one every 3rd time you try. you may get 5 clovers in a row then not 1 in 10 attempts.

with 1/3 (33.33%) chance to get a clover you have 2/3 (66.6666%) chance of not getting any in every attempt

Gambler’s fallacy is the belief that the “universe” somehow carries a memory of past results which tend to favor or disfavor future outcomes. When the chance of getting a mystic clover is the same for every attempt. It is just bad luck. Yes I have wasted 50 shard without getting a mystic clover before.

Just today, after 242 shards I got 74 clovers.
Don’t give up until you finish a stack, and then see how you ended…

Though I must admit, it does sound like you had a stroke of bad luck there.

i got my clovers and i tested both 1x recipe and 10x recipe . i figured out that the 10x recipe has more rate to get your clovers i used about 80 shards for 10x recipe and i got about 50x clovers . however i used about+140 shards for 1x recipe and i got about 32 clovers

I have done 205 combines and have 53 clovers to show for it. That is roughly 1 in 4. Here are some of the spreads I got.

8 combines in a row 5 clovers.
11 combines in a row 0 clovers.
3 combines in a row 3 clovers.
18 combines in a row 0 clovers.
5 combines in a row 4 clovers.
6 combines in a row 4 clovers.
4 combines in a row 3 clovers.

As you can see, spells of good luck and spells of bad. You good sir have had a nasty spell O’ the bad. Hope you get a nice good spell soon. Cheers!

I did a mix of 10x and 1x initially on my big builk. Like 120 skill points, 200 plus shards. I did like 15 10x tries and the rest 1×. I ended up with 53 clovers

I then did 10 skill points and did 2 10x and 2 1x tries and got nothing

Then i did 5 skill points and did 8 1x tries and got 3 clovers

So at the moment i got 56 clovers

The forge is brutal, there is no other way to put it. Its the single hardest part of getting a legendary in my honest opinion. Once you pass that, everything else is directly up to your effort. But this part is all luck and could be a complete nightmare.

So im going to be doing 5 skill points at a time and eat away the remaining clovers. After that, just need remaining shards and got my twilight.

my question is How the hell are you guys getting that temple uncontested for shards?
Mine has been contested for like 2 weeks due to failures or glitches.

You can also buy them in the fractual dungeon. So the chances of temple of balthazar being open are gonna decrease with more people running fractual’s. Personally I haven’t stepped foot into FoTM, but that’s my choice.

77 out of 205, but I finished it 1 month ago. No idea if there has been changes, but it seems like they can make tiny code changes with lots of unintended changes in hundreds of different places. (ie. unintended increase of drops for unidentified dyes?)

I don’t really mind the failures

BUT

Why are ancient bones so common as a result for me? It is ridiculous how many ancient bones I have gotten. I have 250 of them and <50 of the others.

After only reading the 1/3 chance, I did a test batch of 3x ten times clovers and failed them all. (appx 3 weeks ago)
I did another test batch (a week later) for 55 individual clovers and got 0 Mystic Clovers.

So I’d say it isn’t 1/3 chance based on my results… BUT…. it is all a gamble to tell you the truth. I’m just hoping my next goal of 200-250 will be successful to score 77 clovers.

Took me roughly 300 shards, 7 with the 1 recipe, and 70 with the 10 recipe. The 10 recipe yielded nice mats, including batches of 10 lodestones when it wasnt clovers though, and a 50ish totems, and 50ish bloods, so all in all, not that disappointed.

So with simple maths, my rate of success was 25.66%

After 100 crafts i have 43 clovers atm. Just random.

yes the RNG GOD said.

Ulion.5476:

Gambler’s fallacy is the belief that the “universe” somehow carries a memory of past results which tend to favor or disfavor future outcomes. When the chance of getting a mystic clover is the same for every attempt. It is just bad luck. Yes I have wasted 50 shard without getting a mystic clover before.

50? sounds like fake RNG then
With a 1/3 chance to get one every try, the chance to get none in 50 shards is 9,5^{-10}, so really unlikely. Same with the chance to get 50 clovers in a row which is about 8,5^{-25}. So less likely than picking the correct atom from over 100 mol hydrogen atoms.

Just did another 8 1x shots and i got 5 finally a good streak

just did 10x recipe, and didnt get any clovers 13 attempts in a row. did get some on the 14th

Earlier people have reported better success rate with the 1x recipe compared to the 10x recipe.

Malediktus.9250:

50? sounds like fake RNG then
With a 1/3 chance to get one every try, the chance to get none in 50 shards is 9,5^{-10}, so really unlikely. Same with the chance to get 50 clovers in a row which is about 8,5^{-25}. So less likely than picking the correct atom from over 100 mol hydrogen atoms.

I used the 10 mystic clover recipes instead of the 1 mystic clover one. That was how it happened. I have alot of shards but few t6 mats so I do not care so much about failing.

I think I used about 230 shards to get mine. The first 30 shards gave me 3 clovers though, I was cursing and shouting, then I kept going and got 5 clovers in a row for a couple of times. Just keep going, you’ll get them eventually. I’d definitely agree that it’s 1/3 chance when I’m looking at my statistics.

Also, don’t use the 10 clover recipe. The chance of getting 1/3 averages out when you use a large sample. However if you use, let’s say 100 shards, you only have 10 tries. Getting none, or 10 clovers isn’t totally out of the question. You can afford to NOT get a clover when you use a one time recipe, but can you really afford to not get clovers when you use 10 at the same time?

Got 43 clovers over the course of about 130 shards, saved up karma for ages and bought 186 shards yesterday and used them all, by the time i was done i had 64 more clovers, all done with the 1x recipe.

Total about 310 shards used and 107 clovers returned, at least i have some spares if i decide to go for another legendary in the future.

I only need about 40 more and I have 240 shard but I forgot about the amount of skill point needed for the recipe. I wasted alot of them on random stuff for gold and WvW. Then again I did not expect to get 400k karma from karma jugs and drops. I expect to be done with my karma farm by the end of the year before their were karma jugs.

i got 60 clovers for 10 tries of 10 recipe…
try it at night

I got 70 clovers over 10 try with x10 recipe. imho it gives better chances… After instead, i went for the 7 more i needed with x1 recipe and took me 15 attempts -.-
Day or night doesn’t make a difference i think.

Kelvingts.2035:

i got 60 clovers for 10 tries of 10 recipe…
try it at night

Selenya.6410:

I got 70 clovers over 10 try with x10 recipe. imho it gives better chances… After instead, i went for the 7 more i needed with x1 recipe and took me 15 attempts -.-
Day or night doesn’t make a difference i think.

You guys are extremely lucky, the 10 clover recipe doesn’t have a better chance. And indeed day or night doesn’t matter.

if it helps some people, and doesn’t hurt others.. i hope. ; )) it’s kinda like wearing your lucky underwear on a big day. i’m personally going for the 1x recipe now and slowly amassing my shards and other mats.

quick and silly question, since i haven’t used the forge much. so say i have stacks of each item. and i just double click / drag them into the mystic forge. usually the entire stack goes into the 4 slots. if the recipe, for the 1x recipe for e.g. only uses up 1 of each and 6 stones… when i hit forge, it’ll take exactly that amount right?

in other words, i don’t have to separate the amounts manually using Alt + drag, etc?

and OP, may the lights of luck shine upon you soon.

Yeah about that luck… anothr 80 x10 and I got 10 clovers out of it.
I know someone will say that it was dumb way to try it but to be honest I’m tired of that toilett and just wanna be done with it so I can move on to next step.
I don’t find it fun or player friendly that half of the game and 90% of money that I made comes from throwing stuff in MF and if you know what to do regular Joe will never grind or play enough to earn that much money.
Same goes for playing TP as it seems only way to be rich in this game is to do either or both since devs are effectively shuting down grinding/farming.
/goes to buy more stuff from TP and throw in MF to get stuff to manipulate TP. l0l

Dont do the 10x recipe. Its just gambling High!

1st legendary = 77 clover with 1x recipe = 273 shards spent.
2nd legendary = 64 clover = 10x recipe + 14 1x recipe = Over 340 shards spent

Luck is… luck.

Play safe with the 1x recipe.

akamon.2769:

if it helps some people, and doesn’t hurt others.. i hope. ; )) it’s kinda like wearing your lucky underwear on a big day. i’m personally going for the 1x recipe now and slowly amassing my shards and other mats.

quick and silly question, since i haven’t used the forge much. so say i have stacks of each item. and i just double click / drag them into the mystic forge. usually the entire stack goes into the 4 slots. if the recipe, for the 1x recipe for e.g. only uses up 1 of each and 6 stones… when i hit forge, it’ll take exactly that amount right?

in other words, i don’t have to separate the amounts manually using Alt + drag, etc?

and OP, may the lights of luck shine upon you soon.

You can just drag the who stack in. It will only use one each combine.

Also on a more positive note…I took a look at my “failure” vs Clover rates and based on the current TP prices, The cost to craft the 53 clovers (ecto prices) was about 52g, but the value of the t6 mats I have gotten is almost 46g. That works out to about 11s each. Probably one of the cheapest items for the legendary.

(This is discounting the monetary value of the obby shards, coins, and skill points. I feel that I can do this due to the fact that I earn them for free while working on other things, farming, dungeons, etc)