Guild Wars 2

Nike.2631:

If you have a non-RNG way of getting loadstones (or even ectoplasm) without getting your face ripped off at the BLTC, I’d LOVE to hear about it…

There isn’t any, that’s why I’m kitten at the whole clover and ecto bullkitten.

Honestly, what part of the mats isn’t RNG? The dungeon gift, I guess…

Gift of mastery isn’t RNG at all. Gift of fortune is RNG personalized. Gift of Legendary X is gift of Farming.

And precursor is… you get my idea.

some more from me…

tens:
0/1
0/1
0/1
1/1

singles:
1/9
1/9
1/9
1/9

as you can see, my luck has dwindled from my initial posting

Iehova.9518:

Gift of mastery isn’t RNG at all. Gift of fortune is RNG personalized. Gift of Legendary X is gift of Farming.

Gift of Mastery has no RNG components? 500 WvW badges. You will face RNG with those no matter how you try to get them. Even the jump puzzle you have to face RNG.

How do you get the karma or fractal relics for the obsidian without RNG?

How do you get the exp for the skill points without RNG?

How do you explore the entire world without encoutering the RNG?

You cannot swing your sword, loot or salvage an item, play a DE, or interact with anyone without enountering a RNG. It is everywhere. People only complain when the odds of a desired outcome are low. The fact that the result is random doesn’t bother them until they don’t want to pay the price. If it wasn’t random, the complaint would be that the price is too high.

Fildydarie.1496:

Iehova.9518:

Gift of mastery isn’t RNG at all. Gift of fortune is RNG personalized. Gift of Legendary X is gift of Farming.

Gift of Mastery has no RNG components? 500 WvW badges. You will face RNG with those no matter how you try to get them. Even the jump puzzle you have to face RNG.

How do you get the karma or fractal relics for the obsidian without RNG?

How do you get the exp for the skill points without RNG?

How do you explore the entire world without encoutering the RNG?

You cannot swing your sword, loot or salvage an item, play a DE, or interact with anyone without enountering a RNG. It is everywhere. People only complain when the odds of a desired outcome are low. The fact that the result is random doesn’t bother them until they don’t want to pay the price. If it wasn’t random, the complaint would be that the price is too high.

by your definition, the whole game is rng, which is too broad.

but what i think everyone means by rng is the fact that you can’t reliably get 77 clovers within a reasonable amount of time…but the other components you can.

kiba.2768:

by your definition, the whole game is rng, which is too broad.

but what i think everyone means by rng is the fact that you can’t reliably get 77 clovers within a reasonable amount of time…but the other components you can.

That is sort of my point. People keep saying “RNG this” and “RNG that” but the whole game is based on the RNG. This is like getting a cancer diagnosis and blaming the doctor—the same doctor that treated all your other ailments.

The RNG is just the messenger. The whole point of clovers is that you have to demonstrate luck (in addition to hoarding karma and exp and exploring). A Gift of Mastery is supposed to represent grinding every aspect of the game—and luck is one such aspect.

People assume that getting worse than 1-in-3 means they are taking longer than the dev’s assumed would be required. Perhaps the odds were set based on 99.999% being successful within 500 attempts (or thereabouts—haven’t done the math, but you get the idea), rather than just declaring 1-in-3 is the way to go.

You can get 77 clovers in a reasonable span of time with a large degree of reliability. There are no guarantees, just like there are no guarantees on having DEs trigger how you want, or guarantees on enemies not spiking you to death over and over, or guarantees on loot received from enemies.

There is, however a reasonable expectation, and what is happening is that people are blaming the RNG because the expected level of effort is more than they want. Some people have much worse luck than others—that happens; luck is a fundamental part of any game. These people must expend additional effort, but the beauty of RNG-based systems is they have no memory. If you were colossally unlucky on your first attempt, the chance of having better luck on your second attempt is much higher (or, in the case of bernouli tests like this, the chances are unchanged, which is still ‘better than my average’). With accumulating success, you’ll get there eventually. Sure, it is possible to try to make clovers from now to the end of time and never get 1, but lets face it—chances are that won’t happen. At billion-to-one odds you’re looking at ~750 attempts for 77 clovers. This is not entrely unreasonable, it is just more than people want to do.

It’s for precisely this reason that I’ll never build a legendary. You can end up doing three times as much work for the same item as someone else because ANet apparently thinks RNG is OK. It’s a pitiful game dynamic and a total tease. No thanks.

Just be thankful anet didnt use the crappy Aion rng system. Case in point: you get all excited that your armor or wepon is at + 9 and you go for + 10. RNG FAIL. YOU ARE NOW BACK TO +0. Money and time waste and you are in worse position from whrn you started.

Fildydarie.1496:

kiba.2768:

by your definition, the whole game is rng, which is too broad.

but what i think everyone means by rng is the fact that you can’t reliably get 77 clovers within a reasonable amount of time…but the other components you can.

That is sort of my point. People keep saying “RNG this” and “RNG that” but the whole game is based on the RNG. This is like getting a cancer diagnosis and blaming the doctor—the same doctor that treated all your other ailments.

The RNG is just the messenger. The whole point of clovers is that you have to demonstrate luck (in addition to hoarding karma and exp and exploring). A Gift of Mastery is supposed to represent grinding every aspect of the game—and luck is one such aspect.

People assume that getting worse than 1-in-3 means they are taking longer than the dev’s assumed would be required. Perhaps the odds were set based on 99.999% being successful within 500 attempts (or thereabouts—haven’t done the math, but you get the idea), rather than just declaring 1-in-3 is the way to go.

You can get 77 clovers in a reasonable span of time with a large degree of reliability. There are no guarantees, just like there are no guarantees on having DEs trigger how you want, or guarantees on enemies not spiking you to death over and over, or guarantees on loot received from enemies.

There is, however a reasonable expectation, and what is happening is that people are blaming the RNG because the expected level of effort is more than they want. Some people have much worse luck than others—that happens; luck is a fundamental part of any game. These people must expend additional effort, but the beauty of RNG-based systems is they have no memory. If you were colossally unlucky on your first attempt, the chance of having better luck on your second attempt is much higher (or, in the case of bernouli tests like this, the chances are unchanged, which is still ‘better than my average’). With accumulating success, you’ll get there eventually. Sure, it is possible to try to make clovers from now to the end of time and never get 1, but lets face it—chances are that won’t happen. At billion-to-one odds you’re looking at ~750 attempts for 77 clovers. This is not entrely unreasonable, it is just more than people want to do.

what i think people mean is that in comparison, the 77 clovers is more of a gamble than anything else.

let’s look at the factors contributing to the rng aspect of clovers:
- salvaging ecto. i personally don’t believe that the ecto rate has been nerfed in any way…i’m still getting 1:1. what i see, however, is that people complain here on the forums about getting a streak of 0/10 or 2/20 or something like that. the problem here is that 20 is such a small sample in the bigger picture. do 1000 salvages and then maybe your results will have some credibility/weight. it’s the streaks of nothingness that makes people temporarily angry and go posting on the forums. how many posts about 0/20 do you see in comparison to posts about 25/20? i think that answers itself.

- obsidian shards. the fact that the temple of balthazar was bugged for the longest time was a source of grief for many players sitting on the 1mil karma they had banked. note, it is not the karma that is the issue here. karma is a naturally occurring ‘resource’ that accumulates while playing the game normally. unless you actively avoid gaining karma, i can’t see how you wouldn’t steadily gain some per day. dailies are great source as well. if you sit in lion’s arch and only flip on the tp…well that’s your fault for not playing the game. a legendary is a reflection of your mastery of the game, and your mastery of the tp will get you nowhere in terms of legendary acquisition.

in relation, everything else you need for the gifts is readily available IF you play the game…as in all aspects of the game. the mentality that many players have is one of entitlement, which paints a nasty picture when they realize that playing THEIR way will not get them a legendary. if anet intended tha 5-10% of the population ever attaining a legendary is to be respected, then, realize that not everyone will have one/want one. those that expect to have one will be sorely disappointed if they don’t meet the requirements.

Fildydarie.1496:

Iehova.9518:

Gift of mastery isn’t RNG at all. Gift of fortune is RNG personalized. Gift of Legendary X is gift of Farming.

Gift of Mastery has no RNG components? 500 WvW badges. You will face RNG with those no matter how you try to get them. Even the jump puzzle you have to face RNG.

How do you get the karma or fractal relics for the obsidian without RNG?

How do you get the exp for the skill points without RNG?

How do you explore the entire world without encoutering the RNG?

You cannot swing your sword, loot or salvage an item, play a DE, or interact with anyone without enountering a RNG. It is everywhere. People only complain when the odds of a desired outcome are low. The fact that the result is random doesn’t bother them until they don’t want to pay the price. If it wasn’t random, the complaint would be that the price is too high.

It’s true. But there are times when players can have RNG on their side with skill. I have over 1100 Badges and over a million Karma just from WvWing part-time. Just joining a zerg only gives you Karma. You gotta learn how to kill in PvP in order to get Badges. The better you are, the more chances you get at Badge drops.

More drops = more RNG chances.

when i tried for 100 shards one after the other i found i had a return of around 1 to 6.

I found that i would get better returns > if i tried for a few at a time (<5), then did something else for a while, then came back, sometimes changed character to make a few, changed forge location (pvp forge, wvw forge).

It may have just been RNG, but it seemed to work for me.

Im at abt 30% chance, doing the 1s. At 67 now, 10 more to go =)

Just got a lovely little run of 6 ectos from cracking three yellows I crafted, with those 6 ectos becoming 3 clovers, a loadstone, and 2 rounds of perfectly useful piles of t6 mats.

23 clovers so far, just kinda plodding along.

Now that I am in on the idea of crafting yellows for ectos, a couple of my crafters are comming along nicely also extracting crafting/adventure xp from the heaps of T5 mats I’ve been hanging on to all this time. 4 crafts mastered, no crafts left lower than 150. And I have about 8 of the yellow dowels left from my weaponsmith reaching 400 so my huntsman should see some explosive leveling once she reaches 375.

sitting a 44 clovers today, i felt like i was just too far away, so i bought a boatload of ecto and some coin to exhaust my supply of shards.

using only 10x recipes to get to 74:

0/1
1/1
1/1
0/1
1/1

then i used singles recipes

0/1
0/1
0/1
0/1
0/1
1/1
0/1
0/1
0/1
0/1
0/1
0/1
1/1
0/1
1/1

and now i have 77 =]

I have been lucky so far ^^ 20 shards used and 9 clovers. But that’s only a small part of everything I need, I’m sure it will catch up with my bad luck.

Just as a thought experiment… would it be a good idea to up the alternative drops? Apart from the mystic clovers, I feel it should at least be a money making gamble on the long run.

Fildydarie.1496:

Iehova.9518:

Gift of mastery isn’t RNG at all. Gift of fortune is RNG personalized. Gift of Legendary X is gift of Farming.

Gift of Mastery has no RNG components? 500 WvW badges. You will face RNG with those no matter how you try to get them. Even the jump puzzle you have to face RNG.

How do you get the karma or fractal relics for the obsidian without RNG?

How do you get the exp for the skill points without RNG?

How do you explore the entire world without encoutering the RNG?

You cannot swing your sword, loot or salvage an item, play a DE, or interact with anyone without enountering a RNG. It is everywhere. People only complain when the odds of a desired outcome are low. The fact that the result is random doesn’t bother them until they don’t want to pay the price. If it wasn’t random, the complaint would be that the price is too high.

When people speak of RNG they usually mean small chance/wildly different results.

When I swing my sword, my damage does not vary from 0-zomg1hitKO.
When I spend 1 hr killing stuff in WvW, I can expect a decent return on my time/badges (unless I’m alone in the tower scouting/guarding…then I expect nothing).
Skillpoints RNG…..wait wat. I commune, I get SP. I kill X mobs, I get SP. I do a dungeon, I get Y XP. Controllable and reproducable.
How do I explore a world without RNG? I CAN NOT FAIL TO EXPLORE IT. RNG in this situtation would mean, some people idk 2/3 would fail to complete world exploration…ty come again, pls make new character for your 2 gifts of exploration..

While strictly speaking you’re right, in the spirit of things…well, you’re not. RNG is something that can hinder your progress if you’re unlucky. And yes, I’m cranky because the sweet RNG decided I don’t deserve any mystic clovers (to put things in to perspective: I had 500 WvW badges+100% world+500 tokens + 250k karma at start of 2nd week of game). So yeh, that 0 clovers…fun game design from my point of view.

6 tries at 10x
40 tries at 1x

9 clovers…

This morning.
10 tries (10mc recipe) gave me… 10mc. 10%….. And if I would receive only T6 mats it wouldnt be so bad, but ancient wood planks twice, 10 treasure bags once, 20 crystals once… lost of time skill points and karma.

Ok, anyone who cares about a consistent return needs to STOP using the x10 recipe. You’re punching your mean deviation through the roof with that thing and then looking surprised that a normal result is nowhere near an average result (with pretty much only the people on the low side of the hump dropping by to record their observations).

10x is for gamblers.
1x is the safe bet.

Still, with 1x i needed 378 to get 67 clovers. I got the last 10 a few days ago using the 10x recipe, got lucky there.
So even with the 1x recipe you can still have big differences in the amount of effort someone has to put in. And i personally question the correctness of 33% chance to get a clover. All the wiki uses as a source for that number is 159 1x attempts. Not exactly a large sample. My sample is more then twice as big with less then half the dropchance (around 17%)

Terrahero.9358:

10x is for gamblers.
1x is the safe bet.

Still, with 1x i needed 378 to get 67 clovers. I got the last 10 a few days ago using the 10x recipe, got lucky there.
So even with the 1x recipe you can still have big differences in the amount of effort someone has to put in. And i personally question the correctness of 33% chance to get a clover. All the wiki uses as a source for that number is 159 1x attempts. Not exactly a large sample. My sample is more then twice as big with less then half the dropchance (around 17%)

I’ve questioned 33% for a while. Over a large number of samples, a small change in the base odds has a profound effect.

1/3 is what people tend to accept as the chance.
33/100 is straight-up 33%; only slightly less.
77/250 is 30.8%
3/10 rounds out the low end that I typically look at and is close enough to the top that people wouldn’t notice a significant difference over the short run.

Over 378 trials, the chances of any one result are pretty small, but the relative chance is easy enough to compare without an obscene number of decimal places:

• 1/3 -> Base
• 33/100 -> 2.4 times as likely as at 1/3
• 77/250 -> 546 times as likely as at 1/3
• 3/10 -> 3342 times as likely as at 1/3
• 1/5 -> about 5.8 billion times as likely as at 1/3 (2.85%).
• 17/100 -> about 10 billion times as likely as at 1/3 (5%).

I threw in some significantly lower yields to show the relative odds. I’ve seen a lot of results from people that suggest the yield is lower than 1/3, however, I have to admit sampling bias because people seldom come forward when they gave a good yield, only a bad yield. Right now I’m sitting at a 24/35 yield, which I know is not typical.

Fildydarie.1496:

33/100 is straight-up 33%, only slightly less.

What do you mean, slightly less?!

Anyway, accept it as completely random. The % chance is absolutely irrelevant to the players, because it’s independent for each try. Having in mind the drop table of the recipe, I’d say it’s less than 33%. My first 8 clovers took…dunnno…40-50 tries at least(got the very first clover after 20 >.<). Couple days ago, 76 tries -> 30 clovers. Next batch will be of 39 xD

1st legendary = 278 shards used (edit: or was 273 or 278 one of those 2; its been a while)
2nd legendary = 438 shards used

Rng….

TWMagimay.9057:

Fildydarie.1496:

33/100 is straight-up 33%, only slightly less.

What do you mean, slightly less?!

Well 33% is slightly less than 1/3 which is equal to 33.33333333333333….%

You all need a lesson in simple probability maths if you think the Gift of Fortune is RNG. It’s a large sample size with a large probability of success. I’m too tired to explain it properly right now but the chances of getting 77 out of 231 with a success rate of 1/3rd are pretty good, and even if you fail you’d only need a few more. What, you were planning to gather exactly 231 ectos, exactly 231 shards and exactly 231 coins?

To put it in perspective using an anecdote, me and some friends farmed some karka using the exact same route and MF amount for the exact same amount of time as an experiment on the drop rates. We all had pretty much the same amount of shells, as well as potent and powerful bloods. Are you going to tell me that drops are exactly the same every time now?

Raybunny.6190:

1st legendary = 278 shards used (edit: or was 273 or 278 one of those 2; its been a while)
2nd legendary = 438 shards used

Rng….

Either you’re flat out lying, you are extremely unlucky, or you’re doing it wrong. Goes without saying use the 1 clover recipe, using the 10 clover recipe reduces the sample size by a factor of 10.

What really is down to pure luck and RNG is the mystic forge precursor. The chances on that are small so you could throw in way more than the expected amount required and still not get it if you’re unlucky.

Berengar.6951:

TWMagimay.9057:

Fildydarie.1496:

33/100 is straight-up 33%, only slightly less.

What do you mean, slightly less?!

Well 33% is slightly less than 1/3 which is equal to 33.33333333333333….%

Yes, that is exactly what I meant. Upon re-reading my post, I suppose the context of “relative to 1/3” was omitted for brevity, although I had hoped it would be implied.

My goal was to point out that probabilities determined from experimentation in the short term are great for approximating small yields, but just a tiny variation that wouldn’t be noticed in a small run can throw off the probabilities of large sample sets by several orders of magnitude. That being the case, I glossed over some of the details both initially and when I proofread, and I apologize for that. I swear by Grenth’s hoary nipples it will not happen again.

Edit: went back and edited my previous post to use a semicolon instead of a comma. Hopefully that makes the meaning clearer. A full rewrite would, but I don’t have the time for that, sadly.

First time I tried, 17 misses in a row, then I finally got my 1st clover on the 18th try..

The first 77 took me 276 tries, 26/61 so far on the next set.

First 45 tries: 16 clovers

Next 10: 7

Next 20: 11

Rng is rng. Im expecting my bad luck streak soon.

I see these clovers as a long term project; yea, the return rate sucks for me as well, but I got a decent amount of t6 mats and lodestones in return. A lot of crap stuff as well, but overall, I’m not complaining. I’m now at 25 clovers I think, and still have a looooong way to go. I don’t have the precursor yet anyway; as I said, it’s a long term project. Some 600k karma spent on shards already, and I know I’ll still need to spend about 600k karma on shards until I can complete the clovers and the gift of mastery. Yes, that’s 1.2 million karma, I know. I don’t really care though.

I’m not in a rush. Legendaries should be a long-term goal. In a way, I’m glad mechanisms like these, ruthless as they are (to me in any event), ensure that legendaries are rare. If they nerf the return rate of good t6 mats and lodestones though…. I’ll be the first to scream murder.

The other day, I laughed a little when I got Obsidian Shards back. It was like Zommoros felt bad for just eating all of my karma.

I haven’t been having bad streaks with my luck. If I had to estimate, my return rate has been between 25 and 33%, but I’ve used the 10x recipe rather often.

I didnt even know it was RNG and i guess i got very lucky.

I gained 80 clovers in 9x trying o.o

I only kept track of the amount of ecto’s I used, which was approximately 180. used the 1x recipe and finally got my 77 clovers yesterday

Got my 77 yesterday. Feels good. Took around 200 or so shards.

150 shards ( more or less ) for my 77 clovers.
50 traits ( x1 recipe) and only 1 clover. Then, i craft 8 x10 recipe and get 70 clovers. Then, i need around 20 taits for 7 clovers.
Now i need a way for farm karma for the 250 shards >.<

Writetyper.1985:

You all need a lesson in simple probability maths if you think the Gift of Fortune is RNG. It’s a large sample size with a large probability of success. I’m too tired to explain it properly right now but the chances of getting 77 out of 231 with a success rate of 1/3rd are pretty good, and even if you fail you’d only need a few more. What, you were planning to gather exactly 231 ectos, exactly 231 shards and exactly 231 coins?

To put it in perspective using an anecdote, me and some friends farmed some karka using the exact same route and MF amount for the exact same amount of time as an experiment on the drop rates. We all had pretty much the same amount of shells, as well as potent and powerful bloods. Are you going to tell me that drops are exactly the same every time now?

Raybunny.6190:

1st legendary = 278 shards used (edit: or was 273 or 278 one of those 2; its been a while)
2nd legendary = 438 shards used

Rng….

Either you’re flat out lying, you are extremely unlucky, or you’re doing it wrong. Goes without saying use the 1 clover recipe, using the 10 clover recipe reduces the sample size by a factor of 10.

What really is down to pure luck and RNG is the mystic forge precursor. The chances on that are small so you could throw in way more than the expected amount required and still not get it if you’re unlucky.

Lying? Have you farmed the karma to get my clovers? NO so believe or not I couldn’t care less. That’s what I spend for the second 77 clovers and I’m sharing my experience. Same as some spent 80 shards and got 70 clovers out of that. Lying again? pls…

I can even add my last 5 clovers:
9 tries -1 clover
11 tries – 2 clovers
12 tries – 1 clover
4 tries – 1 clover

Raybunny.6190:

Writetyper.1985:

You all need a lesson in simple probability maths if you think the Gift of Fortune is RNG. It’s a large sample size with a large probability of success. I’m too tired to explain it properly right now but the chances of getting 77 out of 231 with a success rate of 1/3rd are pretty good, and even if you fail you’d only need a few more. What, you were planning to gather exactly 231 ectos, exactly 231 shards and exactly 231 coins?

To put it in perspective using an anecdote, me and some friends farmed some karka using the exact same route and MF amount for the exact same amount of time as an experiment on the drop rates. We all had pretty much the same amount of shells, as well as potent and powerful bloods. Are you going to tell me that drops are exactly the same every time now?

Raybunny.6190:

1st legendary = 278 shards used (edit: or was 273 or 278 one of those 2; its been a while)
2nd legendary = 438 shards used

Rng….

Either you’re flat out lying, you are extremely unlucky, or you’re doing it wrong. Goes without saying use the 1 clover recipe, using the 10 clover recipe reduces the sample size by a factor of 10.

What really is down to pure luck and RNG is the mystic forge precursor. The chances on that are small so you could throw in way more than the expected amount required and still not get it if you’re unlucky.

Lying? Have you farmed the karma to get my clovers? NO so believe or not I couldn’t care less. That’s what I spend for the second 77 clovers and I’m sharing my experience. Same as some spent 80 shards and got 70 clovers out of that. Lying again? pls…

I can even add my last 5 clovers:
9 tries -1 clover
11 tries – 2 clovers
12 tries – 1 clover
4 tries – 1 clover

http://www.thefreedictionary.com/either

310 shards so far here for 50 clovers.

i made 2months ago 50 clovers with 70 shards with the x10 recipe was pretty lucky.

with the 1x recipe it was like 1/10 lol

anyways going for 2nd legendary now let all the fun begin again x)

Getting this clovers, is too depressing for me….

I’m up to 44 clovers with the 30-33% feel very much still in place (2 seperate runs of 20 that produced 7). On a lark I tried out the x10 recipe. I got 10 Destroyer lodestones, so In a way that’s better than the clovers on that pull of the slot machine.

85 tries yeterday 22 clovers back.

250 Single Uses
I burned up over a stack to get but only approached Zommoros with 250. Everything is T6. In the end I came out with 75 Clovers

46 Fang 38 Blood
52 Claws 41 Scale
18 Bone 38 Dust
53 Totem 26 Venom Sacs

34 Leather 32 Ingot
21 Wood 19 Bolts
3 Piles of Putrid Essence
12 Crystals
2 Hidden Stash (Ruby and Sapphire)

2 Corrupted Lodestone
2 Crystal Lodestone
1 Destroyer Lodestone

I also got back these in which i created more.

12 Ecto 8 Obby Shards
20 Mystic Coins

I think everyone’s luckier the first time around. Or maybe its just me. I would often get a return of 30-40% on average. I’m at 40 clovers now, but main problem is getting skill points, so i’l leveling alts for the mean time :p

110 Shards for 80 Mystic clovers.
seems fair :P

i only used 10 by 1

I have 63 shards left over and nothing to do with them :/

So you have 313 shards?

Head start on your Legendary Number Two I guess.

(not sure why you would buy the fixed portion before knowing the outcome of the variable part)

seems some people have better luck than I am. I just went through 220 Obsidian shards (temple opened up on my server I just had to jump on it), and only got 61 out of it. definitely not in the 30% range for me, sigh.

It took me 23 crafts to get 80 clovers I did all 10s because over a large amount of data they have proven to have the better drop rate.

the 10 recipe worked a lot better for me. Got my 77 clovers, just wish that it was this easy to get the precursor as it was to get the clovers.