Guild Wars 2

My last attempt:

200 lvl 80 rare daggers gave me 7 exotics that I used again in the forge, ended up with 1 rare dagger and 1 exotic… lesson learned not gonna waist any more time trying to make a legendary until ANet opens their eyes to this RNG bullkitten. (and no, I’m not gonna buy a precursor from the TP even if I had the gold to do so).

Anyway happy new year everyone (except the for the person responsible for this crap -.- lol)

You got 1 rare dagger from 4 exotics?

Thanks for taking the time to post your results. Good to know.

Renegade.6325:

You got 1 rare dagger from 4 exotics?

my mistake, it was 7 exotics, for a total of 2 exotic combines and ended up with 1 in the end that I have posted in the TP.

Just looking at the Wiki…

They (Legendary precursors) are obtained randomly at a very low rate from large chests rewarded for defeating Claw of Jormag,Tequatl the Sunless, and The Shatterer and for capturing Temples in Orr or from explorer mode dungeon chests. They can also be obtained randomly when placing four level 75 or higher rare or exotic weapons into the Mystic Forge.¹ If all four weapons are the same type, (i.e. four staves, four rifles, etc…) the output will also be that type. The higher the level and rarity of the items to be combined directly translates to a greater chance of getting a precursor.

I wonder if you have a better chance with the chests…or 200 exotics. Only time will tell.

I’m finally off work!!! HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!

Wait a minute you only got 7 exotics out of 200 rares? That seems like there might be a bug there, you should have somewhere around 15-20% chance of making an exotic from 4 rares (lvl80). But with 200 rares that’s a big enough sample size to tell something is wrong. But your original chances with lvl80 rares to get a precursor were slightly better than 1/1000.

Shuguard.7125:

Wait a minute you only got 7 exotics out of 200 rares? That seems like there might be a bug there, you should have somewhere around 15-20% chance of making an exotic from 4 rares (lvl80). But with 200 rares that’s a big enough sample size to tell something is wrong. But your original chances with lvl80 rares to get a precursor were slightly better than 1/1000.

7 plus the one from the last combine = 8. This wasn’t my 1st time doing this and I can tell you this is the most exotics I have ever got from the forge lol

I think I got maybe 2 exotics from way over 100 rares I made myself. IMO playing with MF is just a waste of time.

Mystic Toilet is just a means to keep rares and exotics valuable. They pull them from the economy. For the most part, people using it are just doing Anet’s work for them.

This mystic toilet thing is my only gold making thing right now. I noticed that i now have less and less exotics coming out.Like 1 month ago i got like 5-9 exotics out from forging 80 rares, now its like 4 exotics max from 80 rares and im forging 2 tiems a week. Well but this all thing is based on luck, one day you can be realy lucky and got good profit from MF and on next time you will fail.

It’s essentially playing a slot machine where the casino is able to change the payout rate instantaneously and does so constantly. Mystic forge is all server side.

I used to try my luck at the MForge/toilet, but now that rares have an abysmal drop rate (imo) I rather take my chances getting ectos, very depressing to put in 4 rare items, to only get 1 of those very same items back.

i spent 100g last month buying rare spectres to get the legendary , what was the result?? fail.
This month i bought it for 60g on Lion trader. Is better than trying.

got my spark from mystic forge yesterday

wasn’t that expensive, i was throwing past days 10-30 rares in there for fun cause i could craft them and that was the result

Shakki.3219:

got my spark from mystic forge yesterday

wasn’t that expensive, i was throwing past days 10-30 rares in there for fun cause i could craft them and that was the result

what kind of rare daggers you put in? what was the names of rares or all was same tipe. I heard that item stats also can increase precursor success in Mystic toilet.

TheFallen.8270:

Shakki.3219:

got my spark from mystic forge yesterday

wasn’t that expensive, i was throwing past days 10-30 rares in there for fun cause i could craft them and that was the result

what kind of rare daggers you put in? what was the names of rares or all was same tipe. I heard that item stats also can increase precursor success in Mystic toilet.

I don’t think it is possible anymore for specific recipe’s to have a greater chance of giving them anymore. I even once saw that there was a dev that blatantly said that some recipes were fixed that were giving better chances.

Gold sinks working exactly as intended

I got my spark like 1 and half month ago (might be wrong I can’t rememeber anymore when karka event was).

It was the day exactly after the karka event finished (in which i got the LB precursor) .

I was doing 16 rares a day , 16 daggers of the same type and all lvl 80. And spark came out. It was 4 berserker ones.

Just creating the post for reference. I wouldn’t waste exotics on the MF.

Oh and rare lvl 80 daggers sold for 19s back then. Custom price ofc.

Agenteusa.6380:

I got my spark like 1 and half month ago (might be wrong I can’t rememeber anymore when karka event was).

It was the day exactly after the karka event finished (in which i got the LB precursor) .

I was doing 16 rares a day , 16 daggers of the same type and all lvl 80. And spark came out. It was 4 berserker ones.

Just creating the post for reference. I wouldn’t waste exotics on the MF.

Oh and rare lvl 80 daggers sold for 19s back then. Custom price ofc.

If you were smart you’d craft greatswords instead of daggers.

Precursor greatswords always sell more than daggers (at least back then). You’d just have to sell the greatsword and you’d have enough money left to buy The Spark and other materials.

Yes but it just so happens that back then GS’s were way more expensive than daggers and also back then the Spark precursor was pretty much up to par with the GS precursors (wasn’t a big difference price wise).

Oh and btw don’t judge before you know the motivations mmmk?

now im up also for daggers. at least exotics can sell for min 3g each, so i got back some money..

Man it really comes down to luck.

I got my Spark the other day first try with just 4 rares. My advice to you is to slaughter a goat and say a prayer to the gods of chance.

Shuguard.7125:

Wait a minute you only got 7 exotics out of 200 rares? That seems like there might be a bug there, you should have somewhere around 15-20% chance of making an exotic from 4 rares (lvl80). But with 200 rares that’s a big enough sample size to tell something is wrong. But your original chances with lvl80 rares to get a precursor were slightly better than 1/1000.

its 15 to 20% chance per combine, hence, every 4 rares gives a 15-20% chance at exotics, so on average, at 15% every 26 rares gives you an exotic. Of course, thats if you have consistent performance with the average, if your unlucky it can be way worse.

phys.7689:

Shuguard.7125:

Wait a minute you only got 7 exotics out of 200 rares? That seems like there might be a bug there, you should have somewhere around 15-20% chance of making an exotic from 4 rares (lvl80). But with 200 rares that’s a big enough sample size to tell something is wrong. But your original chances with lvl80 rares to get a precursor were slightly better than 1/1000.

its 15 to 20% chance per combine, hence, every 4 rares gives a 15-20% chance at exotics, so on average, at 15% every 26 rares gives you an exotic. Of course, thats if you have consistent performance with the average, if your unlucky it can be way worse.

Right, he had slightly bad luck. He had about 65 combines(roughly) out of which he got 7 exotic, so he had about an 11% chance of getting an exotic(in this example). So in short just a bit of bad luck.

phys.7689:

Shuguard.7125:

Wait a minute you only got 7 exotics out of 200 rares? That seems like there might be a bug there, you should have somewhere around 15-20% chance of making an exotic from 4 rares (lvl80). But with 200 rares that’s a big enough sample size to tell something is wrong. But your original chances with lvl80 rares to get a precursor were slightly better than 1/1000.

its 15 to 20% chance per combine, hence, every 4 rares gives a 15-20% chance at exotics, so on average, at 15% every 26 rares gives you an exotic. Of course, thats if you have consistent performance with the average, if your unlucky it can be way worse.

15% or 20%? 5% is a big difference… and I would like to see where you got that data because as someone else said I was around the 11% and that is ridiculous lol

Letifer.4360:

phys.7689:

Shuguard.7125:

Wait a minute you only got 7 exotics out of 200 rares? That seems like there might be a bug there, you should have somewhere around 15-20% chance of making an exotic from 4 rares (lvl80). But with 200 rares that’s a big enough sample size to tell something is wrong. But your original chances with lvl80 rares to get a precursor were slightly better than 1/1000.

its 15 to 20% chance per combine, hence, every 4 rares gives a 15-20% chance at exotics, so on average, at 15% every 26 rares gives you an exotic. Of course, thats if you have consistent performance with the average, if your unlucky it can be way worse.

15% or 20%? 5% is a big difference… and I would like to see where you got that data because as someone else said I was around the 11% and that is ridiculous lol

don’t freak out man, it’s really simple. Basically the percentages have been found to be between 15-20% chance. Your example was on the lower end, meaning it was just bad luck. But if we preformed the same test maybe 20 (with about 200 rares and etc.) times you’d see the chance of getting the exotics to be between 15% and 20%. In short you had some bad luck that put you below the average.

Shuguard.7125:

Letifer.4360:

phys.7689:

Shuguard.7125:

Wait a minute you only got 7 exotics out of 200 rares? That seems like there might be a bug there, you should have somewhere around 15-20% chance of making an exotic from 4 rares (lvl80). But with 200 rares that’s a big enough sample size to tell something is wrong. But your original chances with lvl80 rares to get a precursor were slightly better than 1/1000.

its 15 to 20% chance per combine, hence, every 4 rares gives a 15-20% chance at exotics, so on average, at 15% every 26 rares gives you an exotic. Of course, thats if you have consistent performance with the average, if your unlucky it can be way worse.

15% or 20%? 5% is a big difference… and I would like to see where you got that data because as someone else said I was around the 11% and that is ridiculous lol

don’t freak out man, it’s really simple. Basically the percentages have been found to be between 15-20% chance. Your example was on the lower end, meaning it was just bad luck. But if we preformed the same test maybe 20 (with about 200 rares and etc.) times you’d see the chance of getting the exotics to be between 15% and 20%. In short you had some bad luck that put you below the average.

I’m not freaking out I just made a question, and this isn’t the 1st time I do this and have to say this is the most exotics I have ever got lol Those numbers aren’t even close so yes I would like to see that research.

Letifer.4360:

Shuguard.7125:

Letifer.4360:

phys.7689:

Shuguard.7125:

Wait a minute you only got 7 exotics out of 200 rares? That seems like there might be a bug there, you should have somewhere around 15-20% chance of making an exotic from 4 rares (lvl80). But with 200 rares that’s a big enough sample size to tell something is wrong. But your original chances with lvl80 rares to get a precursor were slightly better than 1/1000.

its 15 to 20% chance per combine, hence, every 4 rares gives a 15-20% chance at exotics, so on average, at 15% every 26 rares gives you an exotic. Of course, thats if you have consistent performance with the average, if your unlucky it can be way worse.

15% or 20%? 5% is a big difference… and I would like to see where you got that data because as someone else said I was around the 11% and that is ridiculous lol

don’t freak out man, it’s really simple. Basically the percentages have been found to be between 15-20% chance. Your example was on the lower end, meaning it was just bad luck. But if we preformed the same test maybe 20 (with about 200 rares and etc.) times you’d see the chance of getting the exotics to be between 15% and 20%. In short you had some bad luck that put you below the average.

I’m not freaking out I just made a question, and this isn’t the 1st time I do this and have to say this is the most exotics I have ever got lol Those numbers aren’t even close so yes I would like to see that research.

I’ll do some digging and see what i find, it is somewhere.
Edit: HAHA i found it, gosh that was painful.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At1gVbEnCATUdFZPNjJ3bHlSXzZOZDRMM3Vud1NTbXc#gid=0
and if you want more to read up on it
http://www.guildwars2guru.com/topic/67443-precursor-r-d-thread/page__st__60

Ninja edit:
“Total mystic forge attempts: 740
Total exotics obtained: 144
Exotic chance: 19.46%, which is roughly one per every five attempt.” quote from the guy with the spread sheet.
Note this is of course using lvl 80 rares, if you use anything lower the percentage will be lower.

Shuguard.7125:

Letifer.4360:

Shuguard.7125:

Letifer.4360:

phys.7689:

Shuguard.7125:

Wait a minute you only got 7 exotics out of 200 rares? That seems like there might be a bug there, you should have somewhere around 15-20% chance of making an exotic from 4 rares (lvl80). But with 200 rares that’s a big enough sample size to tell something is wrong. But your original chances with lvl80 rares to get a precursor were slightly better than 1/1000.

its 15 to 20% chance per combine, hence, every 4 rares gives a 15-20% chance at exotics, so on average, at 15% every 26 rares gives you an exotic. Of course, thats if you have consistent performance with the average, if your unlucky it can be way worse.

15% or 20%? 5% is a big difference… and I would like to see where you got that data because as someone else said I was around the 11% and that is ridiculous lol

don’t freak out man, it’s really simple. Basically the percentages have been found to be between 15-20% chance. Your example was on the lower end, meaning it was just bad luck. But if we preformed the same test maybe 20 (with about 200 rares and etc.) times you’d see the chance of getting the exotics to be between 15% and 20%. In short you had some bad luck that put you below the average.

I’m not freaking out I just made a question, and this isn’t the 1st time I do this and have to say this is the most exotics I have ever got lol Those numbers aren’t even close so yes I would like to see that research.

I’ll do some digging and see what i find, it is somewhere.
Edit: HAHA i found it, gosh that was painful.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At1gVbEnCATUdFZPNjJ3bHlSXzZOZDRMM3Vud1NTbXc#gid=0
and if you want more to read up on it
http://www.guildwars2guru.com/topic/67443-precursor-r-d-thread/page__st__60

Ninja edit:
“Total mystic forge attempts: 740
Total exotics obtained: 144
Exotic chance: 19.46%, which is roughly one per every five attempt.” quote from the guy with the spread sheet.
Note this is of course using lvl 80 rares, if you use anything lower the percentage will be lower.

Nice statistic you made. will do it myself also. Next forging is 500 rares for me..
BTW what kind of GS you put in Mystic toilet???

15% or 20%? 5% is a big difference… and I would like to see where you got that data because as someone else said I was around the 11% and that is ridiculous lol

I was 50% for mystic clovers, but I see some people reporting as low as 10%, where overall chance is meant to be 33%.

You can just fall on the part of the chance curve that sux, but that’s how casinos make their cash.

TheFallen.8270:

Shuguard.7125:

Letifer.4360:

Shuguard.7125:

Letifer.4360:

phys.7689:

Shuguard.7125:

Wait a minute you only got 7 exotics out of 200 rares? That seems like there might be a bug there, you should have somewhere around 15-20% chance of making an exotic from 4 rares (lvl80). But with 200 rares that’s a big enough sample size to tell something is wrong. But your original chances with lvl80 rares to get a precursor were slightly better than 1/1000.

its 15 to 20% chance per combine, hence, every 4 rares gives a 15-20% chance at exotics, so on average, at 15% every 26 rares gives you an exotic. Of course, thats if you have consistent performance with the average, if your unlucky it can be way worse.

15% or 20%? 5% is a big difference… and I would like to see where you got that data because as someone else said I was around the 11% and that is ridiculous lol

don’t freak out man, it’s really simple. Basically the percentages have been found to be between 15-20% chance. Your example was on the lower end, meaning it was just bad luck. But if we preformed the same test maybe 20 (with about 200 rares and etc.) times you’d see the chance of getting the exotics to be between 15% and 20%. In short you had some bad luck that put you below the average.

I’m not freaking out I just made a question, and this isn’t the 1st time I do this and have to say this is the most exotics I have ever got lol Those numbers aren’t even close so yes I would like to see that research.

I’ll do some digging and see what i find, it is somewhere.
Edit: HAHA i found it, gosh that was painful.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At1gVbEnCATUdFZPNjJ3bHlSXzZOZDRMM3Vud1NTbXc#gid=0
and if you want more to read up on it
http://www.guildwars2guru.com/topic/67443-precursor-r-d-thread/page__st__60

Ninja edit:
“Total mystic forge attempts: 740
Total exotics obtained: 144
Exotic chance: 19.46%, which is roughly one per every five attempt.” quote from the guy with the spread sheet.
Note this is of course using lvl 80 rares, if you use anything lower the percentage will be lower.

Nice statistic you made. will do it myself also. Next forging is 500 rares for me..
BTW what kind of GS you put in Mystic toilet???

I’m just the messenger, i don’t like gambling with these kind of odds personally. Also the kind does not matter, the only 2 parts that matter are level and quality/rarity (so named vs. un-named doesn’t matter).