(edited by lackofcheese.5617)
Official Response: Drop Rate of Legendary Precursors
“In the past six days or so, the price has only gone up by around 200g in total.” Only 200g? If thats only for you, feel free to send me 200g. lol
Most people dont even have 100g, infact I seem to be (by far) the richest person in our guild and I only got 122g cash. And that sum will definatly grow slower now that university started again. So no farming 10h a day to keep up with precursor inflation
1st person worldwide to reach 35,000 achievement points.
Also, your claim that the price is rising by “hundreds of gold every single day” is an obvious exaggeration. In the past six days or so, the price has only gone up by 200g in total.
Somehow, even when it’s not an exaggaration it sounds huge. I know this is the spike because of the fix but somehow I doubt it’ll just stop there. It can still slowly rise and reach really absurd prices. Since there’s only 1 or 2 on the TP at any given time they don’t really need to rely on what people in general are willing to pay for it. They just need one guy.
The supply is the problem, with such a low supply the prices will never really stabilize.
That said, I don’t agree with some recent comments though. I definitely wouldn’t assume that everyone here is a cheater and I’m not calling out for bans. Frankly it doesn’t matter how much the godskull exploiters are actually involved, all that matters is the situation at hand.
“In the past six days or so, the price has only gone up by around 200g in total.” Only 200g? If thats only for you, feel free to send me 200g. lol
Most people dont even have 100g, infact I seem to be (by far) the richest person in our guild and I only got 122g cash. And that sum will definatly grow slower now that university started again. So no farming 10h a day to keep up with precursor inflation
Yep. You didn’t read the post you’re replying to, didn’t read ANYTHING BUT “only… 200g” and then replied to that.
Somehow, even when it’s not an exaggaration it sounds huge. I know this is the spike because of the fix but somehow I doubt it’ll just stop there. It can still slowly rise and reach really absurd prices. Since there’s only 1 or 2 on the TP at any given time they don’t really need to rely on what people in general are willing to pay for it. They just need one guy.
The supply is the problem, with such a low supply the prices will never really stabilize.
That said, I don’t agree with some recent comments though. I definitely wouldn’t assume that everyone here is a cheater and I’m not calling out for bans. Frankly it doesn’t matter how much the godskull exploiters are actually involved, all that matters is the situation at hand.
Did you forget my explanation for why there is a price limit already? PLEASE understand that even with a low supply there is a limit. Imagine the precursor is selling for 1000g on the TP. For 1000g it’s extremely likely that you’ll craft at least one precursor. Therefore people would MF instead of buying from TP. There’s your limit. Now whether or not that limit is too high, Anet is looking at that.
(edited by Wahaha.7938)
“In the past six days or so, the price has only gone up by around 200g in total.” Only 200g? If thats only for you, feel free to send me 200g. lol
Most people dont even have 100g, infact I seem to be (by far) the richest person in our guild and I only got 122g cash. And that sum will definatly grow slower now that university started again. So no farming 10h a day to keep up with precursor inflation
Perhaps you didn’t read the comment I was responding to, but I used the word “only” in response to the claim that prices have been going up several hundred gold per day. Considering that the actual increase has been closer to 30g per day, I think “only” is warranted by comparison when ChairGraveyard was claiming a figure that was an order of magnitude larger.
From what I’ve seen, the chance of getting a precursor is very low indeed, and based on what Linsey has said, that’s how ArenaNet intended it to be.
I agree that it would have been better if people had not benefited from the karma and Godskull exploits, and instead things had been the way ArenaNet intended from the very beginning. That would’ve avoided a lot of the trouble and annoyance due to people benefiting from ArenaNet’s mistake.
However, if that had been what happened, the main difference would be that there wouldn’t have been that many under 100g before. Perhaps a couple of people who just got lucky would’ve sold them that low, but as people realised the chances the price would still have steadily risen up until it reflected the actual odds. If anything, the price would be even higher now without those exploits, since there would be significantly fewer precursors to go around.
Based on what I’ve heard from other people so far, it takes, on average, several hundred exotic level 80 greatswords per precursor. If we take the figure to be 300, then that means it takes 450g to make one, and so in the long term it wouldn’t be even be worthwhile to sell one at less than 600g, once you take into account the 15% TP tax and the inherent risk involved.
The chances might be higher or lower than that, and maybe they are indeed too low and need to be increased. Either way, there’s a limit to how high the prices will go. Even if you don’t accept my argument (and Wahaha has made the same argument) that the drop rate inherently sets an upper limit on the price of a precursor relative to the price of exotics, I think Linsey’s word should be enough for you.
We have been watching the prices climbing on Legendary precursors and share your concerns about some of them becoming too expensive. We will continue to monitor the situation and will make any adjustments we feel are necessary.
(edited by lackofcheese.5617)
still 30g a day is still a lot to make in a day if you dislike trading. Most people probably struggle to make 10g a day even if they farm 10 hours.
650g is probably realistic, I expect them to peak at 1000g thought.
1st person worldwide to reach 35,000 achievement points.
Until the Godskull cheaters are banned, their gains and precursors revoked, and the Mystic Forge un-nerfed, ArenaNet absolutely is sending the message that the end game is only for cheaters.
Leaf of Kudzu has never been among the most popular precursor.
It has always gone for about 60-85g. The list of buy orders is still in the 60-85g range.
There are 4 selling for 225-250g. Only listed today.
My husband offered a theory today. What are the chances that the people playing the TP with these precursors, are gold sellers themselves?
WvW law #1: nobody in WvW can count.
(edited by florence.1674)
This needs changing no doubt because this is simply stupid.
About 3-4 hours ago I checked the prices for GS precursors: Dusk ~275g and Dawn ~200g
Guess what ? I check again 10 minutes ago: Dusk 400g, Dawn 350g.
I only checked the greatswords but probably a few other precursors prices jumped.
…
Just lost another 75g for LvL 80 exo GS + 200 rare LvL 80 GS + 1560 Dungeon tokkens for 4 Dungeon GS
I am at 500h+ playtime and all i got is nothing than beeing “unlucky” thx anet for a frustrating endgame. Lucker>cheater>Rest
My husband offered a theory today. What are the chances that the people playing the TP with these precursors, are gold sellers themselves?
They will never tell us, but they will know. At least chance it is very high some folks are playing with desires. Before Lindsays warning post they just bought up all they could get, just because they could not determine it’s price – now after Lindseys warning you can always see at least one sword listed and now it looks like “they” try to test what people are willing to pay. Why not? I mean if I would have a ton of gold I would always keep up the highest buy order – cost no tax – and sell only for profit. While there is a low quantity this is a pretty safe business – and it is always profit – you cannot lose gold right now. In addition you can now get two dusk and two dawn at exact same price without 1c undercut – that’s makes pretty much no sense if it is not the same person… However like I said before it is just guessing in the wild. That the greatswords are primary used lies simply in the nature of gamers buying those weapons, but that’s another story.
I said I would not post on this topic anymore, but I like to add one thing – some of you are discussing since page one/two – always with the exact same arguments – maybe it is time to have a break and let others speak.
it was written…
(edited by cubed.2853)
Just lost another 75g for LvL 80 exo GS + 200 rare LvL 80 GS + 1560 Dungeon tokkens for 4 Dungeon GS
I am at 500h+ playtime and all i got is nothing than beeing “unlucky” thx anet for a frustrating endgame. Lucker>cheater>Rest
Sorry that happened to you man, it’s a dang shame that ANet is prioritizing the satisfaction of Godskull cheaters over the entire rest of the player base.
It’s pay to win when the only winning to set yourself apart from others is the skins o the legendary.
Other MMOs have content requirements to get XYZ legendary. Anet requires RMT to get legendaries.
The only content required for a legendary is 1 week of WvW, 3 days of dungeons, and countless hours of grinding the same map (cursed shore) over an over hoping you don’t shoot yourself of boredom before its over. ( oh and lots of RL cash converted through gems if you are not a cheater and RMT I you are)
Other games = content based quests with goals and objectives requiring teamwork and the help of others (okay so gw2 is not this type of game I get that) but usually when seeking out to complete a legendary in other games there are side rewards along the way to victory.
In guildwars 2 instead of side rewards while working towards victory (precursor) there is nonstop feeling of defeat, hopelessness, questioning why am I spending so much of my Real World life on something that gives no joy or excitement and is more than likely not going to realistically happen because I’m just not lucky like some people. There is no attainable goal other than “the goal to get lucky”.
/clap for Silverghost
the endgame in other game is skill based… Here is RMT farmer based… I have karma point 500 token and all item where no need Gold to make it…. But now i have to ask to my phater a lot of real money for gem -.-’? It is true no Arena?
/clap for Silverghost
the endgame in other game is skill based… Here is RMT farmer based… I have karma point 500 token and all item where no need Gold to make it…. But now i have to ask to my phater a lot of real money for gem -.-’? It is true no Arena?
Skill based? Really? Let’s be fair here, PvE in other mmos is hardly skill based. At best it’s conditioning to learn the choreography of every boss.
As for the gold grind, the real problem is that your progression towards a legendary constantly feels like going backwards because of the precursors. For everytime the price goes up on the TP you fall behind in progress and for every time you throw weapons into the mystic forge without success you go backwards in gold. A system like that really throws off the appeal of mmos, except for the really hardcore ones like EVE.
Yeah the feeling of constantly moving backwards is ridiculous. It’s a forever moving goal post (unless you’re a cheater or buy thousands of dollars in gold to buy the cheater-inflated precursors).
It’s not fun, it’s not exciting. It’s boring and frustrating and annoying. It’s terrible game design to boot.
Yep agree with posts above. Farming karma, badges, tokens, mats whatever I know I am progressing and getting closer to the goal.
The prices going up constantly on TP and the forge fails just making me move backwards.
…
It’s pay to win when the only winning to set yourself apart from others is the skins o the legendary.
Other MMOs have content requirements to get XYZ legendary. Anet requires RMT to get legendaries.
The only content required for a legendary is 1 week of WvW, 3 days of dungeons, and countless hours of grinding the same map (cursed shore) over an over hoping you don’t shoot yourself of boredom before its over. ( oh and lots of RL cash converted through gems if you are not a cheater and RMT I you are)
Other games = content based quests with goals and objectives requiring teamwork and the help of others (okay so gw2 is not this type of game I get that) but usually when seeking out to complete a legendary in other games there are side rewards along the way to victory.
In guildwars 2 instead of side rewards while working towards victory (precursor) there is nonstop feeling of defeat, hopelessness, questioning why am I spending so much of my Real World life on something that gives no joy or excitement and is more than likely not going to realistically happen because I’m just not lucky like some people. There is no attainable goal other than “the goal to get lucky”.
fully agree here but :
prepare for fanboys to come and claim its FINE as it is because its good since they are “legRNGdarys” for a reason!
only fanboys and morons fail to see the problem here simply put. why does not everyone who puts in the EFFORT to make one DESERVE one hmm? explain. LOGICALY. you cant. everyone bought the game. everyone should have to put in the SAME amount of effort. not player A 1 day and player B 3 months. thats kitten just that.
it will NEVER be the case that everyone has a legRNGdary even if precusors where non RNG currently.
in 1-2 years maybe you will see lots of people having one but that argument does not really matter since guess what amount of more/cooler looking content may be added over that big timeframe that could require even more EFFORT to make?
currently tough generally speaking gw2s endgame (yes even wvw maybe except dungeons because of tokens) is way to much based on ingame currency like gold. thats just the perfect food spot for the goldsellers. can only hope anet will get away from this with time. its a bad design model today. you cannot beat these guys they are just to MANY. but you can DISARM them by reducing the NEED for what they offer.
First of all, thank you ANet for making a truly amazing game. This whole controversy has arisen because you made such amazing looking Legendary Weapons, and now many people want them. That’s the price of being good I guess.
In a recent post on the Guild Wars 2 website, they say the following about Legendary Weapons:
“Legendary Weapons are the end result of an epic adventure in Guild Wars 2. You’ll travel all over, collecting items and amassing materials to build your Legendary Weapon.”
To me this summarizes what a Legendary Weapon is intended to be; a symbol of an epic adventure, through all parts of an epic game. In relation to this, I believe that anyone who has made that epic adventure, should be able to enjoy the amazing skins the Legendary Weapons provide.
But enough about the Legendary Weapons because this thread is about the Precursors. I would like to quote the article from the Guild Wars 2 website again:
“Let me explain some of the process. It all starts with a base weapon—these are the extremely rare exotic weapons.”
This quote explains the conundrum we are now in. First, IT ALL STARTS WITH A BASE WEAPON. Many people would like to begin their epic journey towards a Legendary Weapon, but they want to acquire the precursor before they invest too much into the process. Many may know exactly which legendary they want, and will therefore stop at nothing to get the specific precursor. Others may be waiting to see which precursor they get. Either way, it all starts with the base weapon. That’s why there’s the level of interest in this thread at this time.
The second thing this quote explains is that these base weapons are extremely rare (aka low drop rate). So this is our problem. ANet did such a good job creating these amazing Legendary Weapons, so that many people want to work toward getting them, and are frustrated because the “first step” appears to be a lottery, with very low chances of success.
Because of the low drop rate, these precursors have almost become more legendary than the Legendary Weapons they build into. When the recipe for the first legendary weapon was discovered, I remember many people talking about how hard they will be to craft, with all the high level matts, Badges, Dungeon Tokens, etc… And I agree with them, this will be a hard thing to do. It will take a lot of time and effort to put together all the pieces of the puzzle, and eventually have your reward. However, I personally believe that ANet did a great job making those requirements legendary. It truly will require that we explore the world of Tyria in depth, and master many challenges. That is every part except trying to acquire a precursor through the Mystic Forge.
Even the RNG involved in acquiring the Mystic Clovers doesn’t bother me, because it’s a win – win situation. Either you get the clovers you need, or you get some matts that will help build your legendary. However, throwing expensive level 80 exotics into the Forge and hoping for the best is, as is demonstrated by the posts in this thread, frustrating to the extreme. The tone amongst many players is that acquiring all the matts, tokens, badges, etc… necessary for the legendary is the comparatively easy part. The hard part is getting the precursor.
Having said that, I want to share the conclusion I have come to. Be patient. The game has only been out for a little over a month. We still know very little about the drop rates and other factors involved in acquiring these precursors. As I mentioned, I believe that ANet has done a very good job on the rest of the Legendary recipe, and I personally think that there is a better way of getting the precursor than throwing in thousands of random level 80 exotics. We just haven’t discovered it yet. In relation to this, I agree with the OP, that sharing the statistics on acquiring these precursors would go a long way to satisfying the player base, without taking anything away from the game. Knowledge is power.
I also have a lot of faith in ANet as a company. I’m an old time Guild Wars fan, and they’ve always done an excellent job taking care of their customers. So I fully believe that if extreme RNG is the only way to get a precursor, they will take our input seriously, and consider setting up something better in the future.
So my advice is to be patient. If you are ambitious, you can invest time and gold into discovering a better recipe for acquiring these items. If not, spend your time gathering gold and matts to prepare for the rest of your epic adventure. Who knows, you might be able to pull your precursor out of a chest at the end of a temple run, or after slaying a lieutenant dragon. That would truly be legendary. But in the meantime, enjoy the colorful world of Tyria, enjoy the dynamic events, and enjoy the atmosphere of cooperation, and teamwork. Remember, all good things come to those who wait.
I’m wondering if Linsey or someone else from Anet can confirm whether or not you can get a precursor if you use a mystic forge stone as one of your ingredients.
Very good post Death by Osmosis. This is actually my favorite game right now and I’m certainly not trying to hate on Anet (the opposite in fact).
I’m really glad to hear just knowing that the prices are being watched by Anet and that they’re willing to change the situation if things become obviously problematic. I really love this game already and I honestly believe it’s only going to get better and better.
Good post by Death by Osmosis. Can’t quote. I just want to correct one thing. The mats used for the legendary are much more expensive than the precursor. Except for Dusk/Dawn/Legend. If people can’t afford the precursor or think it’s really expensive, then they’ve got a bad surprise coming.
I think this is where some of the crying originates too. The precursors have their price widely displayed in the TP, so that is what most people look at when thinking about making a legendary. Of course most people can’t afford it, which is normal. So they’re shocked and go complain on the forums. They probably don’t know that the other parts of the legendary are more expensive.
Your post offers excellent advice, and that is to wait and gather the other mats first. The other mats can be gathered starting immediately with no problem and guess what? if you do manage to get all of the mats besides the precursor then… the precursor is only like 1/3rd of what you already have. Doesn’t seem so expensive now does it?
Start with karma and mystic clovers guys, not the precursor.
The problem here is that no matter what you never have a guarantee on the precursor.
The clovers drop rate is about 1/3 which means yes you might have to invest more than someone else based on luck but you will get it and it’s not impossible.
The precursor’s are impossible without insane luck. You can’t just farm up the mats for it over XYZ amount of time. The only way to guarantee a precursor is to buy it from those who have them on the TP and the unfair part is those “selling” precursors, not all, but most either 1) Exploited or 2) Got it from the forge pre-patch so they didn’t go through the method we are now REQUIRED to go through.
Legendaries only cost 120g out of pocket. You can farm the rest. 120g one time is acheivable if you save over time. 600g+ is not unless you RMT or GEM to Gold, or you find a niche in the TP
(edited by Silverghost.4192)
It’s difficult to see what’s happening in the crafting side, but to test out how bad it was, I threw in approximately 1500 rare GS and still couldn’t get a precursor (even threw in the exotics that I received). Don’t get me wrong, imo precursors should cost 400-500g and I spent only 250g~ on this at one shot, it’s just that the only thing that concern me is the precursors rising up very quickly and I don’t wish to see market manipulation. But even then, given the post forge patch, the well of precursors should dry up soon (despite the ugly profits of some people).
I do agree it’s simply exhausting to do everything in 1 day (I spent 3 hours crafting), but IMO for the people who are going for legendary, you should just try to forge the rares every day to try and get it.
In any case, I did my part and (probably spent 300g on public research) with no avail on getting precursors. My guess is the odds are 1/375-1/500 for rares, 1/50 for exotics, but maybe ANet placed it higher. If this game is really for the casuals, maybe the RNG should be given slightly higher odds for rares/exotics, but otherwise ANet can keep the odds.
Good luck everyone! I won’t be touching the precursor scene anytime soon (I already got 1 earlier).
I dont always reply on a precursor disscusion…
but when I do, I got 3 of them
badum tss
I too wanted a legendary but gave up even before the massive mystic forge nerf. I cannot believe the price of dusk now as I stopped trying for it when it was only 90 gold. Really what is the point? When you finally get it what are you going to do with it? Stand around in Lion’s Arch so people can gawk at you? Go do WvW and battle people that have near identical stat weapons? Its just a neat looking skin. Back in the infancy days of another popular mmo – if you had a legendary weapon you absolutely decimated in pvp and large groups of players would run from you just because of that weapon. You simply do not have that type of power with a GW2 legendary. It just the journey to get it that is legendary.
Good post by Death by Osmosis. Can’t quote. I just want to correct one thing. The mats used for the legendary are much more expensive than the precursor. Except for Dusk/Dawn/Legend. If people can’t afford the precursor or think it’s really expensive, then they’ve got a bad surprise coming.
I think this is where some of the crying originates too. The precursors have their price widely displayed in the TP, so that is what most people look at when thinking about making a legendary. Of course most people can’t afford it, which is normal. So they’re shocked and go complain on the forums. They probably don’t know that the other parts of the legendary are more expensive.
Your post offers excellent advice, and that is to wait and gather the other mats first. The other mats can be gathered starting immediately with no problem and guess what? if you do manage to get all of the mats besides the precursor then… the precursor is only like 1/3rd of what you already have. Doesn’t seem so expensive now does it?
Start with karma and mystic clovers guys, not the precursor.
I’m willing to bet the opposite. I think most people who post here DO in fact know all about the rest of the legendary recipe, I certainly do.
And I did used to focus on gathering other materials first, but then the price jumping started happening. Now, I’m doing all I can just to get enough money to buy it off the TP. If I get distracted and start making the other mats, I’ll fall behind even more. I can’t gamble on the Mystic Forge for the same reason, because if I spend that money with nothing to show for it, then I’ll loose the TP race even more.
Not that I ever stood a chance in the first place… If Anet just came to us with a fixed recipe and said, ok it costs 400 gold, then I could relax. I could do some other mats for a while, play just for fun while taking it easy with the money gathering. Hell, I could even go outside or sleep every once in a while.
There are many of us who have all the gifts, materials and mystic clovers needed for the legendary weapon already.
We are now only missing the precursor.
And to address the whole RNG with the precursor and the mystic clovers. People are not frustrated with the mystic clovers RNG because it drops often enough that people can normalize the number of tries needed. Some might need slightly more, some might need slightly less, but for the massive majority, you know the average number of tries needed to get all the clovers required.
Not so with the precursor. Nobody know what the % is and that is where the frustration is stemming from. As someone already posted, with mystic clovers, you got something useful back so you didn’t make a massive total loss. If anything, getting my mystic clovers helped fuel my journey to the legendary with the mats I got. With the precursor, that’s different because you knew you instantly lost 3/4 of your resources/time/gold.
The developer’s blog post says this “It all starts with a base weapon”.
For many of us, it ends with the base weapon.
WvW law #1: nobody in WvW can count.
If ArenaNet was going to bring in a fixed recipe to effectively cap the cost, it would have to be at a price premium vs. the average cost from the Forge. I’d expect it to be around 700g or higher – would you be OK with a 700g recipe?
However, this is also not something to be taken lightly. As Linsey herself has said, the Mystic Forge serves an important economic purpose in this game, especially the constant churning of weaponry through it – and the precursors are the main driving force behind this.
While some people seem to have given up, it still seems to me that plenty of weapons are continuing to be pumped through the forge, so at least in that regard the system is working as intended.
Introducing a fixed recipe could easily disturb the entire system quite a lot, and so I don’t think it’s wise to advocate such an approach without giving proper consideration to the consequences.
Yes I would still be ok with a 700 gold recipe if that’s really what it’s worth, at least I would know where I stand. And it would serve well as a money sink just like the Mystic Forge does. Not to mention, that anyone who wouldn’t like the 700 gold recipe would still go the gambling route.
Anyway, Linsey also stated that they are concerned about some of the precursors becoming too expensive. I’m pretty sure that statement was made when Dusk was around 300 gold so I question whether they would really expect 700 gold to be the right price cap. I would bring it closer to 500g but really this is just guess work now, we have to wait and see.
The Mystic Forge is not a money sink, it’s an item sink. The two are very different. A fixed recipe wouldn’t really do the same job unless it actually used, say, 500 exotic greatswords as ingredients for the recipe (which I think sounds pretty silly for a fixed recipe, though silliness isn’t the biggest concern).
I say 700g because a guaranteed recipe should have a price premium over a gamble. If the expected cost of the gamble route is 500g, then I would say that 700g is appropriate for the recipe.
As for Linsey’s post in this thread, I think the main purpose was to alleviate the concerns some people were expressing about the price possibly rising endlessly – something I’ve heard over and over again in this thread. Personally, I think that idea is baseless, but I can see why Linsey would want to reassure players that this will not occur.
The current pricing for precursors is not even ideal at all. In fact, why even contemplate a 700g recipe? All these ideas play straight into RMT hands, which leads me to further strengthen my suspicion that precursors are being churned for gold being sold to gold traders.
There are so many avenues to make the adventure to a legendary epic. So many avenues that Arenanet has not explored. If Arenanet is serious about legendaries demonstrating mastery of the game, and not being some TP obsessive market trader, then we should increase more gifts introduced through these avenues.
We can add the following.
1. Gift of the Treasure Hunter – solve all the jump puzzles in the world
2. Gift of the Conquerer – conquer all the keeps, castles and towers at least once.
3. Gift of the Archaeologist – do all 4 dungeon paths of all the dungeons at least once.
4. Gift of the Rescuer – do all the events in the world
5. Gift of the Hunter – achieve level 1 in all the kill achievements
6. Gift of the Priory – join the Priory
7. Gift of the Vigil – join the Vigil
8. Gift of Whispers – join the Order of Whispers
All these just 1 minute off the top of my head, stuff that players should at least see, experience or play in the game that the developers work hard on delivering to us in this game. Many of the gifts needed right now only requires tedious farming.
So if an item is to be legendary, we should be truly exploring the world. Instead, right now, the legendary is crafted by someone best summed up as “the lucky farmer”.
WvW law #1: nobody in WvW can count.
I look at the requirements of getting a Legendary weapon here in Guild Wars 2 and I think “that covers most of the game”.
The big things that got left out:
The “personal story” – Why isn’t my weapon “me” too?
SPvP – The only real alternative to WvW (which got included!) for “end game”, yet there is no real gain here – let alone some love in the “Legendary” process.
I wouldn’t mind seeing a recipe created for something like: SPvP Token + Story Token + Forge mat + something else. OR setting it so that the coming “Pact” weapon and/or SPvP rewarded weapons (ie not the free ones from the starter vendor) have a higher chance.
All in all, light RNG is already in the Clovers, we don’t need more. I don’t mind it all that much. We don’t need to know the exact chance to get these “precursors”, just that chance adjusted more, with more sub steps/benefits (like the Clover process).
The Mystic Forge is not a money sink, it’s an item sink. The two are very different. A fixed recipe wouldn’t really do the same job unless it actually used, say, 500 exotic greatswords as ingredients for the recipe (which I think sounds pretty silly for a fixed recipe, though silliness isn’t the biggest concern).
I say 700g because a guaranteed recipe should have a price premium over a gamble. If the expected cost of the gamble route is 500g, then I would say that 700g is appropriate for the recipe.
As for Linsey’s post in this thread, I think the main purpose was to alleviate the concerns some people were expressing about the price possibly rising endlessly – something I’ve heard over and over again in this thread. Personally, I think that idea is baseless, but I can see why Linsey would want to reassure players that this will not occur.
The recipe doesn’t have to be 500 exotic greatswords, it can be all sorts of base materials or items that you create with base materials that you can then throw into the Mystic Forge for a 100% recipe. This way anyone who decides to go for a 100% recipe would on average be sinking more items than a gambler since the 100% recipe would be more costly as you suggested.
But we’re still both just guessing on the prices. If Anet really expects the average gamble cost of a precursor to be 500 gold and at the same time saying they’re becoming concerned about the prices while they are still only at 300 gold than that sounds a bit dishonest to me and I don’t really believe they would do that. Every good gaming company is very careful with what they say since they know we’re all just a bunch of drama queens lol.
The way I read Linsey’s post was not as any kind of suggestion that the prices were already high, but that ArenaNet did not want them to become excessively high in the future.
I don’t really see how there would be any dishonesty involved in such a comment, especially when you consider it in the context of people suggesting the price would keep on rising forever. Clearly if it was to keep rising forever, it would eventually become too high by anyone’s standards, including ArenaNet’s.
But it’s hard to see why they would be concerned with a price that has only risen to 3/5 of it’s intended value. Not to mention that because of the sales tax, an item sold for 500g would only give you a profit of 425 gold so if amking it costs 500 gold on average people would actually have to sell it at 600 gold just to make a profit. If they’re just saying they’re concerned to calm people down but aren’t actually worried about anything because these prices are intended to be even higher anyway than that doesn’t sound entirely honest. In fact, if that was actually the case, you’d think they would be more concerned with the prices of some other precursors being too low.
But again I don’t actually think they’re being dishonest because my guess is that their intended value was supposed to be lower than 500. Likely still higher than 300 though. Like I said we’re both just guessing.
700g is a complete joke, I’ve played this game for over 400 hours and I’ve got about 200g+ in total. No that’s not just nolifing TP or karma farming in orr, I’m actually PLAYING the game as well. Do not even joke about something like that, stuff like that some devs take seriously.
The rest of the legendary weapon costs about 300-350g if mats are bought, depending on which 1 u getting ofc. Precursor costing 2x that is literally stupid. Especially if I know the fact that some bigboys got their precursors for 25-50G (???.. yes this is the time when u wanna compare that to 700g) in the first weeks.
If I’m ever gonna get a legendary spending 1000g+ and there are people running around the world who only spent about 300g on it then kitten me… I want a weapon better then theirs.
I’d be happy with a account bound recipe, like karma, tokens, badges + another ~100-150g of mats and whatnot. Maybe even have requirements like finishing some puzzles and whatever.
..or as I have suggested before, but most likely it gets lost between all the nonsense…
4x rare or exotic same type weapons in the mystic forge have a chance of giving you back a e.g. ‘Greatsword blade’ (acc bound)…Let’s say about 5% chance.
You need like 10-20 of these + coins + scroll or whatever to craft the precursor.
So people can buy it from TP (obviously the prices lower as well) or gamble and if they keep failing they at least get the blades and with enough tries they will either get the precursor itself or 20 blades and craft it. So there would be a recipe, but it involves RNG so the hardcore rng fans still have something to play for.
…
the solution is quite simple really. If instead of being a hotheaded elitist, simply just play the game meanwhile slowly working for the precursor(or just wait out the overinflated prices), then there really is no problem. No one will buy a 700g precursor unless its worth 700g…. or u have lots of money.
In reality, these weapons are only worth so much because people are willing to buy it. The solution is quite simple, if u dont want to pay 700g for a precursor, then dont. Once no one buys it for 700 the price will change.
I’ve always thought that the price on the precursors are stupid, but just by speculating i can tell there is so much hype into getting legendaries and the envy that people will have for them, that people are willing to either liquidate everything they possibly have to have the chance to buy one, or either pay for it with cash.
Btw i’m just watching this topic and not posting anything since i have nothing to tell more but, is it same for the A.Net ?
What’s the purpose of this radio silence ? Tell us something cuz ppl going to be more paranoid every second, Legendary Precursors price climbing like a mad.
A.Net ( Linsey ), i guess it’s time to explain your thoughts to us about this problem.
Are you willing to punish non-cheaters, honest players and encourage the cheaters or will you punish cheaters and giving us proper way to obtain Precursors ?
(edited by azazil.9541)
Btw i’m just watching this topic and not posting anything since i have nothing to tell more but, is it same for the A.Net ?
What’s the purpose of this radio silence ? Tell us something cuz ppl going to be more paranoid every second, Legendary Precursors price climbing like a mad.
A.Net ( Linsey ), i guess it’s time to explain your thoughts to us about this problem.
There isnt a problem. Prices in markets are determined on a basis of whether or not people are willing to buy it. If i put up a copper ore at 1g a piece, will u buy it? Chances are u wont(and u probably cant unless u buy every other copper ore at the lower prices).
My point is that when there are so many people who want precursors(and pretty badly from what ive seen), those with a precursor can either:
A) keep it for themselves and make a legendary
or
B) simply price it however they feel.
Whether anyone buys it, is not up to the seller, its up to the buyer. When all buyers looks at the price and says “Oh my god thats so overpriced im not going to buy it” then the seller is stuck with that precursor stuck in the market at a price which is hella expensive to take out(since if u list an item at 500g, the TP already takes a 5% cut from u which is 25g).
Btw i’m just watching this topic and not posting anything since i have nothing to tell more but, is it same for the A.Net ?
What’s the purpose of this radio silence ? Tell us something cuz ppl going to be more paranoid every second, Legendary Precursors price climbing like a mad.
A.Net ( Linsey ), i guess it’s time to explain your thoughts to us about this problem.
She already did.
I honestly think Death By Osmis’s post (above) sums up all my thoughts very well. Although i agree with some of people’s concerns, here’s what i think (another way of saying what he said):
Play the game, its only been live for over a month! You will likely get your chance at getting a precursor (and then Legendary) if you play the game, have fun, and not be a crazy person like many here in this thread who desperately need to feed their ego and lust for attention and prestige by having a Legendary (note: search Legendary in the dictionary) while we are just 44 days into what is possibly one of the best MMO’s ever created.
And now we will hear from the aforementioned crazy people.
People saying the price of precursors is currently due to the market, sorry but you are simply wrong.
That may have been true before the Godskull exploit cheaters made thousands of gold and dozens of precursor, then subsequently bought up all the cheaper precursors and relisted them for 4x-5x their price but it certainly is not the case now.
Heck, it’s even trivially easy to see that the market does not consider Dusk worth 400g by the fact that the buy orders for it are nearly 200g less.
The only reason the precursor market is so inflated now is due to ArenaNet giving the Godskull cheaters a free pass to monopolize it.
(edited by ChairGraveyard.2967)
Here is an idea…
1) Make all precursors Account Bound on Aquire (So the rich stop getting richer. This stops those who cheated with the Godskull exploit or got Precursors pre-patch due to Game Design Flaws from making Gold they should never have to begin with. "I realize it hurts those who got precursors from the Forge Post Patch but that number is far lower I’m guessing) This also makes them more "Legendary* to aquire.
2) Make the Forge recipes return there normal return item AND a token. 4 Rares of the same weapon type has the same chance to give whatever reward it would normally give but also always gives 1 Minor Token of Zomorros. 4 Exotics of the same weapon type has the same chance to give whatever reward it would normally give but also always gives 1 MajorToken of Zomorros.
3) Make Mayani sell all precursor for either 500 minor token or 50 major tokens. (Or whatever corresponds to the current probability of the forge now.)
This way if you fail all is not lost you are still progressing by getting a token. However, you can still “get lucky”. And since the precursors are account bound you cannot exploit this to get rich or give them to all your friends etc.
This is essentially one variation of a 100% recipe. The tokens wouldn’t even have to be a 100% drop, just the fact that they would be dropping on some kind of regular basis would make people feel like they were progressing towards something instead of just loosing everything.
There isnt a problem. Prices in markets are determined on a basis of whether or not people are willing to buy it. If i put up a copper ore at 1g a piece, will u buy it? Chances are u wont(and u probably cant unless u buy every other copper ore at the lower prices).
My point is that when there are so many people who want precursors(and pretty badly from what ive seen), those with a precursor can either:
A) keep it for themselves and make a legendary
or
B) simply price it however they feel.Whether anyone buys it, is not up to the seller, its up to the buyer. When all buyers looks at the price and says “Oh my god thats so overpriced im not going to buy it” then the seller is stuck with that precursor stuck in the market at a price which is hella expensive to take out(since if u list an item at 500g, the TP already takes a 5% cut from u which is 25g).
Problem with your copper ore analogy is that I know for a fact that I can get copper ore myself for less effort. With legendaries there is no such knowledge and even if there were the prices could still be too high simply because people hate the RNG of the mystic forge and for a good reason.
The problem with the precursor market is that it’s only open to the wealthiest few. They don’t need thousands of players who desperately want that legendary. They need like one crazy farmer or one kid with daddy’s credit card. The market is too small so the large majority is being closed off from it.
It doesn’t matter if 99.9% of us decide the current prices aren’t worth it. It won’t balance the market because the precursor market doesn’t even need us. What we need is a bigger precursor market. One that’s big enough for all of us.
(edited by Archer.6485)
by the time the devs address this issue it will be too little too late. from the looks of their silence i am not sure they are even reading this massive thread anymore. they wont close it cause its official though;-)
Here is an idea…
1) Make all precursors Account Bound on Aquire (So the rich stop getting richer. This stops those who cheated with the Godskull exploit or got Precursors pre-patch due to Game Design Flaws from making Gold they should never have to begin with. "I realize it hurts those who got precursors from the Forge Post Patch but that number is far lower I’m guessing) This also makes them more "Legendary* to aquire.
2) Make the Forge recipes return there normal return item AND a token. 4 Rares of the same weapon type has the same chance to give whatever reward it would normally give but also always gives 1 Minor Token of Zomorros. 4 Exotics of the same weapon type has the same chance to give whatever reward it would normally give but also always gives 1 MajorToken of Zomorros.
3) Make Mayani sell all precursor for either 500 minor token or 50 major tokens. (Or whatever corresponds to the current probability of the forge now.)
This way if you fail all is not lost you are still progressing by getting a token. However, you can still “get lucky”. And since the precursors are account bound you cannot exploit this to get rich or give them to all your friends etc.
Genius idea right there.
You sure you’re not an ArenaNet developer?…
No wait, if you were, something like that would ALREADY exist….
Please go apply for their developer positions?
by the time the devs address this issue it will be too little too late. from the looks of their silence i am not sure they are even reading this massive thread anymore. they wont close it cause its official though;-)
Yeah, pretty sure they’re just waiting for it to die off. It’s not like they bothered to take action against the Godskull cheaters, after all, so they’re clearly fine with some people having dozens of precursors while normal, non-cheating players will never see one due to the nerf.
I guess it’s really “legendary” for some people to get precursors for no effort and 60s each, and the rest of us to be told they’re “super rare” and regardless of the effort we put in we should never be able to attain one (despite “super rare” being a joke after these cheaters made themselves dozens for 60s ea).
(edited by ChairGraveyard.2967)
by the time the devs address this issue it will be too little too late. from the looks of their silence i am not sure they are even reading this massive thread anymore. they wont close it cause its official though;-)
Yeah, pretty sure they’re just waiting for it to die off. It’s not like they bothered to take action against the Godskull cheaters, after all, so they’re clearly fine with some people having dozens of precursors while normal, non-cheating players will never see one due to the nerf.
I guess it’s really “legendary” for some people to get precursors for no effort and 60s each, and the rest of us to be told they’re “super rare” and regardless of the effort we put in we should never be able to attain one (despite “super rare” being a joke after these cheaters made themselves dozens for 60s ea).
exploting is not the equivalent to cheating. In fact, just because you found a nice way to make precursors or get gold, doesn’t warrant a ban or a rollback.
By your logic, everyone who did mass speed runs on CoF should lose all their profits just because something worked, and worked well. There is no number that pops up in the mystic forge telling you your chances of getting precursors. Those who did benefit from the godskull exploit have done nothing wrong though personally I envy the fact that i missed such opportunity, but that the same as envying the pre-nerf CoF speed runs.
They just need to add pre set recipe to fix the inflation. The market is flooded with rage of rage, so the prices are still down there, 50 gold for one. Nobody buys it and everyone is undercutting.
Make it require every single gift of dungeon or 4 of them, plus 250 ectos, mystic coins and something else. It will fix a lot of deflated market. People will buy more ectos and stabilize the crash of the prices.
The world is teeming with unnecessary people.
It is God’s decision that i fight.
As knight of honor, as protector of the sin. I sacrifice myself, for the blood of criminals.
It is God’s decision that i fight.
As knight of honor, as protector of the sin. I sacrifice myself, for the blood of criminals.
They just need to add pre set recipe to fix the inflation. The market is flooded with rage of rage, so the prices are still down there, 50 gold for one. Nobody buys it and everyone is undercutting.
Make it require every single gift of dungeon or 4 of them, plus 250 ectos, mystic coins and something else. It will fix a lot of deflated market. People will buy more ectos since the price of it it is steadily decreasing.
That would make legendary weapons no different than maybe a naegling or other unique exotics. Only difference being the price of the mats (which by the way drives the reason for getting one in the first place).