Guild Wars 2

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=p_-NgefsLyg

Fun?

a 700g recipe would be stupid. Why should that one ingredient cost twice of the other ingredients?

’’2) Make the Forge recipes return there normal return item AND a token. 4 Rares of the same weapon type has the same chance to give whatever reward it would normally give but also always gives 1 Minor Token of Zomorros. 4 Exotics of the same weapon type has the same chance to give whatever reward it would normally give but also always gives 1 MajorToken of Zomorros.

3) Make Mayani sell all precursor for either 500 minor token or 50 major tokens. (Or whatever corresponds to the current probability of the forge now.)

This way if you fail all is not lost you are still progressing by getting a token. However, you can still “get lucky”. And since the precursors are account bound you cannot exploit this to get rich or give them to all your friends etc.’’

I love how I’ve been spreading basically the same idea for the last 2 weeks and no one replies, but when someone else has the same idea/copies it people call him a genius -.-

I really need to start making topics all the good posts are getting lost in this kitten.

setvenx.6285:

ChairGraveyard.2967:

shirashika.1026:

by the time the devs address this issue it will be too little too late. from the looks of their silence i am not sure they are even reading this massive thread anymore. they wont close it cause its official though;-)

Yeah, pretty sure they’re just waiting for it to die off. It’s not like they bothered to take action against the Godskull cheaters, after all, so they’re clearly fine with some people having dozens of precursors while normal, non-cheating players will never see one due to the nerf.

I guess it’s really “legendary” for some people to get precursors for no effort and 60s each, and the rest of us to be told they’re “super rare” and regardless of the effort we put in we should never be able to attain one (despite “super rare” being a joke after these cheaters made themselves dozens for 60s ea).

exploting is not the equivalent to cheating. In fact, just because you found a nice way to make precursors or get gold, doesn’t warrant a ban or a rollback.

By your logic, everyone who did mass speed runs on CoF should lose all their profits just because something worked, and worked well. There is no number that pops up in the mystic forge telling you your chances of getting precursors. Those who did benefit from the godskull exploit have done nothing wrong though personally I envy the fact that i missed such opportunity, but that the same as envying the pre-nerf CoF speed runs.

CoF speed runs are not even in the same order of magnitude as the Godskull exploit, which allowed these cheaters (and yes, they are cheaters) to make thousands of gold in mere hours, which is not possible anywhere else in the game legitimately.

Further, it is specifically against the TOS to exploit bugs like that so you are simply wrong, objectively. To play the game every player must agree to abide by the TOS which includes not exploiting bugs which can net you gains that are not possible and were never intended to exist in the game (and guess what? Making thousands of gold and dozens of precursors in a matter hours counts). Your opinion about it is irrelevant.

I thought this thread might be useful for people.

Post here how many attempts it takes you to get your pre-legendary from mystic forge.

Mystic Forge Attempts for Pre-Legendary
Lvl 80 Axes : Rare: 483; Exotic: 4 – Frostfang: 0
Lvl 80 Swords : Rare: 20; Exotic: 0 – Zap: 0

If enough people post it will allow us to get a better idea of drop rate over time.

People should also post the numbers for exotics as well to see what the actual rate difference is between using rares and exotics.

It might also be worth noting how many exotics you received from putting your rares in and if you received any other named exotics during your attempts.

It’s a bit of extra work, but all useful information.

Grim.6415:

People should also post the numbers for exotics as well to see what the actual rate difference is between using rares and exotics.

It might also be worth noting how many exotics you received from putting your rares in and if you received any other named exotics during your attempts.

It’s a bit of extra work, but all useful information.

Yeah I am only counting the rares I craft, obviously any rares I get back I throw in as well. So far I have received 8 exotics back on the axes of which 1 was named (Faithful). So with a little math, I have put in another 75 lvl 80 rare axes ((332/4)-8) will update post and sig accordingly.

I sell the exotics to try and offset the price of making the rares.

well i did put in MF about 200 75+lvl exotics, an didnt get pre legendary so far.

People saying the price of precursors is currently due to the market, sorry but you are simply wrong.
That may have been true before the Godskull exploit cheaters made thousands of gold and dozens of precursor, then subsequently bought up all the cheaper precursors and relisted them for 4x-5x their price but it certainly is not the case now.
Heck, it’s even trivially easy to see that the market does not consider Dusk worth 400g by the fact that the buy orders for it are nearly 200g less.
The only reason the precursor market is so inflated now is due to ArenaNet giving the Godskull cheaters a free pass to monopolize it.

Look at it this way: If this really is price manipulation, then the people buying up precursors will have to buy up the precursors faster than they sell, and they’ll eventually build up their stocks extremely high. If that happens then either the price will crash and they’ll have to sell all the weapons they’ve built up at a loss, or just destroy them and make a bigger loss.

If, however, the current prices ARE at or below equilibrium price, which I think is the case, then these people’s decision to buy up and resell all the precursors was very smart. Furthermore, it indicates that they would only need to buy up precursors once. After that people would price them as they are without any further interference.

People are ignoring how much it costs to buy and resell something. It’s very unlikely that any dusks/dawns posted recently have been bought and resold because the 15% trading post fee is far more than the potential profits that could be made.

@Strill, you’re forgetting these people exploited themselves thousands of gold before they even started messing with the precursor market (which just made them more gold). They are probably sitting on tens of thousands of gold, 30g is not going to be a big deal to them. If anyone has the spare gold to do this sort of manipulation, even considering the TP’s 15% fee, it’s them.

8 level 80 rare shortbows: 0

4 level 80 rare daggers: 0

setvenx.6285:

the solution is quite simple really. If instead of being a hotheaded elitist, simply just play the game meanwhile slowly working for the precursor(or just wait out the overinflated prices), then there really is no problem. No one will buy a 700g precursor unless its worth 700g…. or u have lots of money.

In reality, these weapons are only worth so much because people are willing to buy it. The solution is quite simple, if u dont want to pay 700g for a precursor, then dont. Once no one buys it for 700 the price will change.

I’ve always thought that the price on the precursors are stupid, but just by speculating i can tell there is so much hype into getting legendaries and the envy that people will have for them, that people are willing to either liquidate everything they possibly have to have the chance to buy one, or either pay for it with cash.

That’s the thing though, only Anet, the seller, and the theoretical buyer know if they are being sold at those prices though.

Last night Dusk was at 400g and Dawn was around 350g. Who has that kind of gold that didn’t exploit or abuse free transfers?

fellyn.5083:

Last night Dusk was at 400g and Dawn was around 350g. Who has that kind of gold that didn’t exploit or abuse free transfers?

I do, for one. I’ve earnt it mostly on the TP, with a significant portion of it made by Mystic Forging Major Sigils into Superior Sigils (this is significantly less profitable now, and also fairly boring).

I recently got a Dawn from a buy order at ~215g; I’ve considered reselling it, but I think ~350g might turn out to be too low, and there’s a good chance I’ll want to use it myself anyway.

ChairGraveyard.2967:

@Strill, you’re forgetting these people exploited themselves thousands of gold before they even started messing with the precursor market (which just made them more gold). They are probably sitting on tens of thousands of gold, 30g is not going to be a big deal to them. If anyone has the spare gold to do this sort of manipulation, even considering the TP’s 15% fee, it’s them.

The problem is that you’re assuming there is a serious case of manipulation to begin with. Before you can speculate on who’s doing the manipulation, you have the demonstrate that there is manipulation actually going on.

From what I can see, there’s not that much evidence of any serious manipulation. Buying with low buy orders and reselling with higher sell orders is not manipulation, that’s simply arbitrage and it is a natural and inevitable function of a free market. Nor is a continuous rise in price any kind of evidence of market manipulation.

There we have it, you are a trader and lost all credibility.

lackofcheese.5617:

I’ve earnt it mostly on the TP, with a significant portion of it made by Mystic Forging Major Sigils into Superior Sigils (this is significantly less profitable now, and also fairly boring).

Did they ninja patch this or something? I had tried that a few times; put four major sigils in, got … one of exactly what I put in back out of it. >:{

EDIT: OK, this witch hunt of anybody who makes money via the trading post is ridiculous. It accomplishes absolutely nothing and is extremely petty. I’m all for a set recipe, but my goodness.

Rainshine.5493:

lackofcheese.5617:

I’ve earnt it mostly on the TP, with a significant portion of it made by Mystic Forging Major Sigils into Superior Sigils (this is significantly less profitable now, and also fairly boring).

Did they ninja patch this or something? I had tried that a few times; put four major sigils in, got … one of exactly what I put in back out of it. >:{

There’s a ~20% chance of getting a superior sigil out on every conversion, and from what I’ve seen basically every superior sigil is equally probable, including stuff like Superior Sigil of Bloodlust (currently ~2.5g); consequently, the average value of a superior sigil is something like 30 silver. There is, however, quite a bit of variance, because there is only a couple of very valuable sigils like Bloodlust. I was able to profit reliably because I had the resources to do thousands of conversions, which reduces the relative variance quite a lot.

Ye.. lets make a 700g recipe for Dusk.
Lets penalize legit players because of exploiters, while they roam around with their 15g dusks, we should spend 700g on ours. Am I rite?
The only people arguing the price is fine are:
a) Exploiters
b) Don’t need dusk or already have it
In both cases, you need to gtfo.

While I think that communally gathering statistics is a good idea, I’m not sure that a forum is the best place for it. A shared spreadsheet or online database would be a better approach.

Still, I guess a shared spreadsheet would be vulnerable to deletion by people who wanted to keep the data secret, so it would take a bit of work to get a safe system.

I want Dusk and I want it to cost 700g. What now?

Clearly you’re an exploiter, then. Sworden’s logic is infallible.

ChairGraveyard.2967:

CoF speed runs are not even in the same order of magnitude as the Godskull exploit, which allowed these cheaters (and yes, they are cheaters) to make thousands of gold in mere hours, which is not possible anywhere else in the game legitimately.

Further, it is specifically against the TOS to exploit bugs like that so you are simply wrong, objectively. To play the game every player must agree to abide by the TOS which includes not exploiting bugs which can net you gains that are not possible and were never intended to exist in the game (and guess what? Making thousands of gold and dozens of precursors in a matter hours counts). Your opinion about it is irrelevant.

How is one supposed to tell that it was an exploit when the difference is a RNG % rate which one cannot measure when no one was told the real success rate. So what you are saying is that if i threw in items and got a dusk, it could possibly be a glitch because technically i have to spend forever like everyone else to get it. Your counter argument is invalid.

Well the devs clearly are not reading this post any more or it would most likely be locked at this point with all the arguing that has taken place. So far I’ve seen a couple of good suggestions in the tread and a whole lot o arguing over why exploiters and lucky people prepatch essentially got 200+ free gold from Anet. ( I’m just as guilty as everyone else for this. ) at this poin though i think we need another update on Lindsey’s thought about the suggestions in the thread, or the tread needs to be locked so we know its useless to continue following.

Why would they lock this thread? Don’t read it if you don’t want to see people arguing.

So many people have this philosophy of how everything that happens to them is someone’s else’s fault.

“I don’t have a precursor because it’s Anet’s fault someone was able to make more money than me, legit or otherwise”

“I don’t have a precursor because there’s no set price on them”

“I can’t find an effective way to play my class, so nerf X”

Legendaries are meant for people who can overcome hardship and odds, either through smart money making or extreme perseverance in farming. Extraordinary items are obtained by people who can do extraordinary things. If Anet wants only about 5% of people to have a legendary for X amount of time, then you better be in the 95th percentile of players trying to make one. If instead you’re blaming other people for somehow handcuffing you from doing anything about the situation yourself, then frankly the path to obtain a legendary isn’t for you. It’s a harsh but true reality.

And enough about this exploiting crap. It’s a completely separate issue that has no effect whatsoever on the long-term rarity of legendaries.

This data collection has:

Good intentions

Currently it is missing:

Methods

Organization

A reason for me to post data considering most people misinterpret statistics, complain about the results, or try to devalue any precursors I make in the process

Well, one idea would be to work together to make a website dedicated to collecting statistics, perhaps as a sister site to GW2DB and to GW2Spidy.

I actually wouldn’t mind participating in that kind of project.

Remember, ANet said the highest chance of getting a precursor is by using level 80 exotics. You may end up spending more on rares in the long run then you would by just saving up for the exotics instead.

LvL 80 extoic carrion greatsword x28 – 1 dawn
and I want to add this as well…..
people don’t realize that there are more people with the item (because they refuse to sell) than those who tries to make profit (those put items in TP). I know 12 people who had dusk, spark, dawn, the legend. I am pretty sure there are many many more in the server who had those but they’re currently working on their legendary and not selling the precursor so you might think not man people have it or there aren’t many in TP (less competitor, more demand, higher the price). The precursor is the only way to reduce the extoics and rares in the economy right now, due to there are no superior item than extoic once you get the one-time upgrade. If they increase the precursor drop rate as it is now then it will reduce the price but it will hurt the economy in the long run.

LvL 80 exotic GS x120:
Khrysaor, the Golden Sword x1
Breath of Flame x2

the rest were completely useless exotics that were forged with eachother, leading to a final useless exotic.

I know this thread is moving fast but it hasn’t been that long since Anet’s first official response about precursors. I wouldn’t really call that “silence”. Remember they don’t just get to write whatever they want like us because the way this community is agitated Anet knows that anything they say can and will be used against them.

I’m agitated too of course, why wouldn’t I be. I saw the cheap precursors in the first week as well. I would have bought it right there and then but I didn’t have the 10 or 20 gold at the time, because I took my time leveling and then did the 100% world exploration, not to mention I had exams so I couldn’t play all the time. kitten me right? This is where I think a lot of us are coming from. It just feels like we’ve been punished for enjoying the game and not having our eyes peeled for exploits and TP profits.

For those who got it, good on you. I’m not going to envy you, but if you tell me I can’t have it now because it’s only for the cream of the crop than you can just gtfo because no one here is going to take you seriously.

Also I very much doubt Anet would release a trailer for legendaries if it was only intended for the 5% of the population (the 5% that’s clearly already sold on the game considering the amount of time they spend farming gold)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=MdA4MlrF5mA

ChairGraveyard.2967:

Yeah, pretty sure they’re just waiting for it to die off. It’s not like they bothered to take action against the Godskull cheaters, after all, so they’re clearly fine with some people having dozens of precursors while normal, non-cheating players will never see one due to the nerf.

That wasn’t a nerf, it was a bug fix.
A nerf is when you reduce the effect of something that was intended but turned out to be too powerful. In this case it wasn’t intended that lower level rares could drop a precursor so they just restored the intended behavior.

I’m not trying to nitpick, but I think the difference is relevant. Your wording sounds like they somewhat “punished” those who didn’t get a precursor by making them rarer, while they just restored the intended rarity.

Now, I find it distubing as well that some people exploited and got away with it. I’m pretty sure the vast majority of the exploiters are just that: exploiters, and when they started getting precursors easily they thought something like “it can’t be this easy to get a precursor, there must be something wrong”, but they still took advantage of the situation without reporting it. On the other hand, I understand the aleatory nature of the Mistic Forge makes it rather difficult to tell those who were aware of the oddness of the thing from those who felt they were just taking advantage of a feature of the Mystic Forge they discovered before the masses, and stockpiled precursors in good faith, to make what they felt was a legitimate profit.

Still, while their wealth and the way they amassed it shouldn’t affect other players, it actually does if they use the wealth they got from an exploit to manipulate the precursors market, effectively making those items more inaccessible than originally planned.

Funny thing about the “economic purpose” of the Mystic Forge. If it truly was meant to be used to cleanup the huge glut of items in the world, I think it has instead achieved the direct opposite.

Due to the RNG, everyone is farming so much stuff and crafting so much stuff all for the sake of the Mystic Forge, that I think we instead have way over flooded the universe with too much junk.

I saw 9 Dusks on the market last night and the price went from 400 gold to 350… I haven’t checked the current stock and price today, though.

112 Level 80 Rare Greatswords. 4 Exotics / 0 Precursor

Might as well…

lvl 80 rare rifles: 52
exotic: 2
precursor: 0

Now I just hope I can find this later.

84 rare staffs in (21 attempts), 0 precursers back. I got 6 exotics, though. 5 were Pearl staffs and one was named. Memory of the Sky, or something like that.

Oh, all staffs were lvl 80 rares. Sold the exotics I got back.

About 80 rare greatswords (lvl 80): 4 Pearl Exotics, 0 named exotics, 0 precursors

ChairGraveyard.2967:

@Strill, you’re forgetting these people exploited themselves thousands of gold before they even started messing with the precursor market (which just made them more gold). They are probably sitting on tens of thousands of gold, 30g is not going to be a big deal to them. If anyone has the spare gold to do this sort of manipulation, even considering the TP’s 15% fee, it’s them.

I will try to be nice…

No, forget that.

How the hell do you know “these people exploited themselves thousands of gold before they even started messing with the precursor market (which just made them more gold)”? Are you serious? You’ve been ranting on and on in this thread about the Godskull exploiters…OK! WE GOT IT! You hate them!!!! So do we.

You may be right about how it’s unfair, But these kind of BASELESS accusations are not helping your cause. Do you really think your endless whining about how unfair things have gotten with precursors and the godskull exploiters are going to push ANet to come over here and whisper soft words of empathy into your ear?

Yes, i hope something is done soon to remedy the problem. Yes, I want a legendary one day. But what you are doing is childish and plain annoying. Let Anet take care of the game which they invested a lot of capital in and which I doubt they will allow to ruin itself because of some silly exploiters.

TL;DR: STOP complaining and PLAY the game.

@above, the kitten and play argument, doesn’t work in a game wherein there is an economy and a player market where it can be manipulated and exploited.

Anyways, the so called “legendary” weapons are in fact “legen-dairy” as all they prove is you can farm, waste time and gold and of course grind repeatedly to play the RNG
They command little to no respect from other players because as someone claimed before, and rightly so. There is little or no aspects of skill involved in crafting a legendairy weapon

So this is what ‘playing the game’ is like, huh? Sounds like a bestseller. Enjoy spending 300g+ on a < 0 .1% chance to get the precursor. Enjoy knowing that even if you spend 500-1000g and don’t get the precursor. That you will be no closer to getting it. While some other person will get it on the 1st try. No justice, no equality, no fairness, no fun. The process of getting a precursor right now is none of those 4 things. And yet, anet supposedly places importance on those 4 things?

I haven’t tried myself, but that’s because I am simply too terrified, after asking around and looking at youtube videos like this one:

The guy has tried over 1000 rares by now. And that’s a typical case, too, it’s not ‘bad luck’ or anything. The chance to get one is literally 0.1% or less. Very scary indeed. Petition/send bug reports to anet about this please, I doubt they actually want to keep this draconic Korean-rng-fest.

Anet is just helping the exploiters by making buying their wares more cost-effective than using the forge.

Is it possible that you have less of a chance of getting one if you use the exact same item every time? Maybe you have better luck with this if you use different types of rares and exotics?

Have people tried doing a variety of different weapons? I know Carrion is the cheapest but maybe mixing them in with the others would help.

PoisonTaco.4025:

Is it possible that you have less of a chance of getting one if you use the exact same item every time? Maybe you have better luck with this if you use different types of rares and exotics?

Have people tried doing a variety of different weapons? I know Carrion is the cheapest but maybe mixing them in with the others would help.

Possible, sure. But to get the kind of sample size to know whether it’s true or not would take an incredible amount of effort/time. Suppose you throw in 400 of the same weapon, then start mixing it up and 80 later you have a precursor. By itself that tells you nothing. You have to get heaps of the things, with some using all the same stuff and others not.

I mean, if you want to find out, awesome. It’s gonna be a slooow process though.

There is no evidence that supports unique swords having a higher chance at the moment.

However my attempts were all unique swords, no CKS at all. Still to no avail.

PoisonTaco.4025:

Is it possible that you have less of a chance of getting one if you use the exact same item every time? Maybe you have better luck with this if you use different types of rares and exotics?

Have people tried doing a variety of different weapons? I know Carrion is the cheapest but maybe mixing them in with the others would help.

This h as been answered by the loot/crafting dev some time ago. it doesn’t matter what KIND of rares/exotics you use, all that matters is their level and rarity (exotics have more chance than rares, but no word on how MUCH more). Either way, 0.1% chance is going WAAAAAY too far in terms of luck required.

PoisonTaco.4025:

Is it possible that you have less of a chance of getting one if you use the exact same item every time? Maybe you have better luck with this if you use different types of rares and exotics?

Have people tried doing a variety of different weapons? I know Carrion is the cheapest but maybe mixing them in with the others would help.

If you mean Diminishing Returns when using the same item in MF, then no. An earlier post by Linsey confirmed that DR doesn’t occur with the MF.

Just started trying shields and can’t complain so far. I’m going to keep trying these because the cheapest rare shield is only 15s and I haven’t seen The Chosen on the TP.

32 rares= 5 rares and 2 exotics.

LvL 80 exotic GS x100:
Breath of Flame x2

| total= 220 exotic GS
| Khrysaor, the Golden Sword x1
| Breath of Flame x4
| Precursor x0

Still waiting for someone from Anet to answer my question about mystic forge stones. If I put in 3 level 80 rares or 3 level 80 exotics along with a mystic forge stone do I have a chance of getting a legendary precursor?