This is why I decided not to even try the forge and to just buy a precursor. It took me almost 7 months to save up the money (could have been a lot less but I hate farming so I didn’t) but waiting was a lot less frustrating than throwing money into the forge and getting nothing back.
Danielle Aurorel, Dear Dragon We Got Your Cookies [Nom], Desolation (EU).
Not to be harsh, but all evidence points toward needing about 10x more revenue than the OP tossed in to even start being upset about not getting a precursor….it’s a VERY bad investment.
Just out of curiosity, how many Flushes did that equate to?
We go out in the world and take our chances
Fate is just the weight of circumstances
That’s the way that lady luck dances
Not to be harsh, but all evidence points toward needing about 10x more revenue than the OP tossed in to even start being upset about not getting a precursor….it’s a VERY bad investment.
Just out of curiosity, how many Flushes did that equate to?
So… at lunch I sunk 150 gold into precursor gambling… The Chosen is at 560g … so I thought I could short cut it and just try for it in the Forge…
Wow, I really left to come back to work in a sad mood :/
I save and save then get the urge to roll…. GAH This isn’t the first time either.
Just so you know, Precursors are not randomly priced. The Chosen is at 560g because it will cost about that much in Mystic Forge attempts to create it on average.
Because it is random, you could see outliers such as getting a Precursor from the MF for only 1g worth of forges or being the guy who drops 3000g and never sees one at all. But given enough MF attempts (we are talking tens of thousands here), you will average out to one The Chosen for every approximately 500g spent on the MF.
So… at lunch I sunk 150 gold into precursor gambling… The Chosen is at 560g … so I thought I could short cut it and just try for it in the Forge…
Wow, I really left to come back to work in a sad mood :/
I save and save then get the urge to roll…. GAH This isn’t the first time either.
Just so you know, Precursors are not randomly priced. The Chosen is at 560g because it will cost about that much in Mystic Forge attempts to create it on average.
Because it is random, you could see outliers such as getting a Precursor from the MF for only 1g worth of forges or being the guy who drops 3000g and never sees one at all. But given enough MF attempts (we are talking tens of thousands here), you will average out to one The Chosen for every approximately 500g spent on the MF.
It’s not quite that simple though because there are a lot of other factors involved in the TP prices for precursors.
You have the same chance of getting The Chosen when throwing exotic shields into the Forge as you do of getting Dusk when throwing in exotic greatswords. But Dusk costs almost twice as much (maybe more, maybe less, I can’t check the exact price right now).
A big part of that is because a lot more people want Twilight than The Flameseeker Prophecies, so there’s more people bidding for Dusk and the price gets pushed up.
Sometimes other things push demand up (or down) too. Pretty much all the precursor prices went up around the time of the April feature patch because the wardrobe update (and they fact that legendaries became account bound) made them a lot more desirable for some people. At the other extreme during the Karka weekend when quite a lot (relatively speaking) dropped the prices crashed.
Danielle Aurorel, Dear Dragon We Got Your Cookies [Nom], Desolation (EU).
So… at lunch I sunk 150 gold into precursor gambling… The Chosen is at 560g … so I thought I could short cut it and just try for it in the Forge…
Wow, I really left to come back to work in a sad mood :/
I save and save then get the urge to roll…. GAH This isn’t the first time either.
Just so you know, Precursors are not randomly priced. The Chosen is at 560g because it will cost about that much in Mystic Forge attempts to create it on average.
Because it is random, you could see outliers such as getting a Precursor from the MF for only 1g worth of forges or being the guy who drops 3000g and never sees one at all. But given enough MF attempts (we are talking tens of thousands here), you will average out to one The Chosen for every approximately 500g spent on the MF.
It’s not quite that simple though because there are a lot of other factors involved in the TP prices for precursors.
You have the same chance of getting The Chosen when throwing exotic shields into the Forge as you do of getting Dusk when throwing in exotic greatswords. But Dusk costs almost twice as much (maybe more, maybe less, I can’t check the exact price right now).
A big part of that is because a lot more people want Twilight than The Flameseeker Prophecies, so there’s more people bidding for Dusk and the price gets pushed up.
Sometimes other things push demand up (or down) too. Pretty much all the precursor prices went up around the time of the April feature patch because the wardrobe update (and they fact that legendaries became account bound) made them a lot more desirable for some people. At the other extreme during the Karka weekend when quite a lot (relatively speaking) dropped the prices crashed.
The exotic and rare weapons have three main factors controlling their price:
1. How desirable the same weapon type precursor is
2. The current market value of Globs of Ectoplasm
3. The average Sigil/Rune value
Items 2 and 3 set a baseline cost that all precursors share. Item 1 will then increase the cost of forging based on how in demand the precursor is.
This means that if you want to buy greatswords to attempt to forge for a greatsword precursor, you are going to pay a lot more for your forge attempts than if you wanted to buy shields.
The net result is as I said above… the current precursor price reflects the average cost of forging the precursor using rare and exotic weapons, and those costs reflect the demand of the individual precursors.
It’s a degree of interplay that I didn’t feel the need to expound upon when giving a simple answer, which is that the price of a precursor is based on the cost of getting it.
Better yet do dungeons and buy the dungeon weapons with extra tokens you get. You basically throw soul bound weapons in to get one exotic you can sell (this is part of the gold per hour dungeon run) The bonus is you may land a precursor.
Better yet do dungeons and buy the dungeon weapons with extra tokens you get. You basically throw soul bound weapons in to get one exotic you can sell (this is part of the gold per hour dungeon run) The bonus is you may land a precursor.
I find it’s better to just salvage the exotic dungeon equipment to get inscriptions/insignias that will sell on the TP for a decent amount of cash. Even though it’s still RNG to get the insignia, you’re likely to get a them now and again, plus you’ll be building up ectos that can also be sold or used for other stuff, and it’ll also help you stock up on dark matter.
The fact of the matter is that buying a precursor directly from the TP is really the only reliable way to get one. Salvaging the exotic dungeon equipment to potentially build more cash is more likely to get you what you want in the long run instead of just dumping it all in the forge.
If you are just going to dump it in the forge, you might as well use the rares anyways. You can obtain a much higher volume, and it should still be more or less as unlikely to get a precursor as it is dumping exotics in.
Venom is actually underpriced, because it usually gets introduced to the market as a sideeffect of a different activity, not as a result of a forge attempt dedicated to its creation. Almost noone ever tries to forge it directly.
It’s the point 1 from the mtpelion’s post above.
Actions, not words.
Remember, remember, 15th of November
figure when is your “lucky” time, for me it is usually 1 hour after reset on thursday
save money, buy a lot of rares/exotics and use them in MF only during that “lucky time”
i got 5 pres from MF with very little investment of about 200 gold
And remember, Dusk only drops when it’s night ingame while Dawn will only drop during the day! Also, not only do you have to figure out your lucky time but search for your lucky spot to stand as well! After you figured this out, only stand in this spot!
If you really want to get lucky, I have this magical talisman for sale! I originally didn’t want to sell it, but since it’s you, you can have it for just 200 gold! That’s just a small investment for all the money you can make with it!
figure when is your “lucky” time, for me it is usually 1 hour after reset on thursday
save money, buy a lot of rares/exotics and use them in MF only during that “lucky time”
i got 5 pres from MF with very little investment of about 200 gold
And remember, Dusk only drops when it’s night ingame while Dawn will only drop during the day! Also, not only do you have to figure out your lucky time but search for your lucky spot to stand as well! After you figured this out, only stand in this spot!
If you really want to get lucky, I have this magical talisman for sale! I originally didn’t want to sell it, but since it’s you, you can have it for just 200 gold! That’s just a small investment for all the money you can make with it!
