Mystic’s Gold Profiting Guide
Forge & more JSON recipes
So, I brought up this question in another thread (https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/crafting/To-salvage-or-not-to-salvage-1/first#post4476128) but decided it wasn’t the place for it, so I’m making a new thread.
Basically, if you threw 3 level 75 exotic armor + 1 level 75 exotic weapon into the forge, what are the odds of getting a precursor?
If you threw 4 exotic weapons in, the odds are roughly 1 in 128 forgings. Even if 4 random weapon types. But what about armors and weapons? Since the available pool of potential drops has increased (from just weapons to weapons + armor), I assume the chance of a precursor would decrease proportionally. Has anyone tested this?
I dont think its feasable because you also forgot trinkets.
Throw in 3 exo armor and a weapon, you can also get an exotic trinket back.
But in general, i dont think the amount of gold per forge attempt you save will outweigh the added output variety.
Afaik…..it’s not possible to mix weapons and armor anymore. Opening the forge on a toon with both exo armors and weapons won’t allow me to mix them.
I know you can’t mix trinkets with weapons and armor, but I thought I was mixing just weapons and armor recently… maybe not. iuno, I’ll try some things next time.
Actually, mix and match only works up to rare trinkets/armor/weapons, not exotic anymore.
Not sure though, if you could get a precursor from throwing 4 rare armor/trinkets/weapons in the forge.
You cant mix exotic armor and weapons in the forge.
Kind of off topic, but isn’t the ’hysteria" over Precursor rate partly due to the repeating of the “1 in 128 forges”, chances that gets tossed around in these forums and how this number is misinterpreted by players seeking a precursor?
Most players just don’t understand that what that means is you toss a 128 sided die EVERY time you toss in 4 Exotics and you MUST roll a 1 to get a Precursor. Most take it as meaning if you do 128 Exotic forges you should get a Procurer…..which is NOT a statistically realistic view of the odds.
I get this is from player ignorance of basic statistical terminology that may be obvious to others, but I feel it is a HUGE mis-communication with players that might be a bit overly-obsessed with obtaining a Precursor….(I get that’s not any one poster’s problem).
Not pointing or meaning to pass blame in anyway with this observational question.
(edited by Brother Grimm.5176)
maybe we should change it from “odds are 1 in 128 forgings” to “odds are 1,000 in 128,000 forgings”.
people might be the impression better. Instead of thinking “on #128, I get a precursor”, they would think “on #128,000, I will have 1,000 precursors”, which is pretty close to true.
Kind of off topic, but isn’t the ’hysteria" over Precursor rate partly due to the repeating of the “1 in 128 forges”, chances that gets tossed around in these forums and how this number is misinterpreted by players seeking a precursor?
Most players just don’t understand that what that means is you toss a 128 sided die EVERY time you toss in 4 Exotics and you MUST roll a 1 to get a Precursor. Most take it as meaning if you do 128 Exotic forges you should get a Procurer…..which is NOT a statistically realistic view of the odds.
I get this is from player ignorance of basic statistical terminology that may be obvious to others, but I feel it is a HUGE mis-communication with players that might be a bit overly-obsessed with obtaining a Precursor….(I get that’s not any one poster’s problem).
Not pointing or meaning to pass blame in anyway with this observational question.
You are absolutely right! I stated this a while ago in one of the other “precursor-rant-odds-mystic forge” rants
There is a name for that too
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy
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