Guild Wars 2

I know RNG is RNG. But as someone that is probably an excessive gambler with the forge I believe their Buff to precursor unless they start posting numbers has been over hyped.

I have gotten 12 precursors , lets just say I average about 500 (2000 rares) forge combines a week. I started this about 3 weeks before the patch.

Before patch I got, 1 Dreamer, 2 shields, 1 spear, 1 Spark, 1 Legend, 2 torches

After patch at this rate I have gotten 1 dawn, 1 torch, 1spear, 1 spear gun.

So with the buff I have gotten about half as many. Again I know RNG is RNG, but if the odds have truely been increased I should be getting more of them given the time frame given mathmatical odds.

Your sample size is still pretty insignificant for dealing with a 1:100 sort of event. I’d expect it be reliable about 20 weeks after the change in rates at your current level of testing.

In other news: how on Earth are you comming up with 2000 rares a week?!?!

As of now its more of a 1 in 500 type of event.. I was getting a precursor pretty reliably 1 in 350-400 prior to the patch.

As for getting 2000 rares a week… there is this thing in the game called crafting where you can make your own rares to sacrifice to the forge.

I’ve heard of this crafting thing you speak of. Comming up with 30,000 blue crafting mats to do that seems like no less staggering an accomplishment .

Yep, something is wrong on this weekly ability to get gathering mats and blue mats for 2000 attempts per week. Except (considering the rate of his precursors) he’s just having fun endless rich and when mats are needed, he buy them in stock and poof, more attempts, more money flow, rinse repeat.
Quite fun worthy players playing 12+ hours a day from prelaunch never saw a shadow of a precursors when players like him have 12+
And yes, that patch note was a fake, already posted as absolutely not realistic

Lucas Ashrock.8675:

And yes, that patch note was a fake, already posted as absolutely not realistic

Huh?

Hmm..thats strange

Just like the stock market.. it takes money to make money.

And no it doesn’t take 12 hours a day.

hmm maybe i should try my hand again with the mystic toilet

Small sample size.

Another 800 rares last night , no luck on anything. I got more precursors before this supposed patch to buff the rates. Or did they change them for the worse after flooding the market with the FotM event.

They going to flood them again with the winterfest event?

Just rolled another 100gswords after 1 week of farming (casual player here) in the mystic toilet and got 2 exotics only. So far I forged something between 1000-1300 greatswords – same s**t different day. Think I’m gonna delete this game…

Last 3 days, I threw about 700-800 gold 80 daggers (, got nothing. The drop rate was approx. 1/125 tries and now it seemed far worse. Nice patch update.

I have also seen the rate for just random exotics go down. I used to get them reliably every 5 or 6 combines. So at todays prices thats 5 gold shot for 1 exo that will sell between 1 and 4 gold

For the past week i would say i am getting 1 every 8 or 9.

I think its time for Anet to post us the numbers. They should have on record i imagine all the times someone has thrown in 4 rares and gotten an exo. Along with a month by month break down to prove to us the percentages have not changed.

out of all those combinations they should also give us how many precursors were a result and show us that if you are smashing exo’s for a chance for a precursor what the success rate is in that.

Also the drop rate of precursors from world bosses and dungeon chests.

Anet why do you hold such vital statistics from the player base. The only reason to do so is so you can change them without telling us. And even though my sample size is small in the collective base it is very large for a single non botting player to accomplish

Maybe we can get a hold of Nate Silver and he can help us.

I very much liked the suggestion that every time you use the mystic forge and it returns an non exotic it will also feed you a precursor token.. that you can then build up to purchase a precursor.. make such precursor and account bound purchase.

You might not win at the casino, but its nice to get at least a free buffet meal after they took your money.

I agree that odds have not been buffed, So far 632 exotics in no precursor out.

Edit to mention all gifts are done, just need a spark.

I have had the 3 final gifts for my bifrost in bank for severall weeks now. Still no precursor from the forge, I’ll keep trying for a coupe of weeks. If I still can’t manage to finish the bifrost by then I’ll just forget about it and go on to another game. There is not one single element of fun in this process.

mance.8201:

I have had the 3 final gifts for my bifrost in bank for severall weeks now. Still no precursor from the forge, I’ll keep trying for a coupe of weeks. If I still can’t manage to finish the bifrost by then I’ll just forget about it and go on to another game. There is not one single element of fun in this process.

Had the 3 gifts for bifrost for about 3 weeks, then found myself on 215g and bought 1 straight from the TP. Legend was 155g-225g for about 2+ weeks. It’s way higher now ofc.
I’m guessing you could have had that cash if you didn’t gamble (it’s what I hear constantly, ‘400g in the forge no spark !!’ :S’
If not then fair enough… but like I said I hear that 349535g into forge crap constantly when they could have bought 3 precursors from TP with the gold they gambled…

Even if I managed to obtain a precursor I would not use it. It would be far more useful to me to just sell it on the TP for the prices they are going for. Then you start considering the price of the t6 mats, ectos, honor badges, clovers.

Its just not worth the investment, time, & sanity to obtain one.

So I don’t understand, are you testing this in the name of SCIENCE? Are you attempting to create more precursors in a hope that the prices will eventually go down? Are you trying to corner the market on the precursor game? Also to anyone who is spending huge amounts of gold gambling for a precursor you might want to stick to the age old tradition of the piggy bank, it’s what I’m doing, and slowly but surely it’s working.

The 632 exotics I’ve put in thus far has still given me a profit, which I used to buy my icy runestones. So no I did not go broke doing the mf gamble, I’m just curious to know if they really did buff it, and to get a rough estimate from other players who did it with exotics to find out approximate odds of using this method.
I’m currently just putting them in and using my profit to buy cultural T3 until I either pull one out or they release this scavenger hunt.
I don’t feel its a smart move to buy a spark for 200g when I still have things to buy and the hunt may be down the road.

Shodori.1984:

As of now its more of a 1 in 500 type of event.. I was getting a precursor pretty reliably 1 in 350-400 prior to the patch.

As for getting 2000 rares a week… there is this thing in the game called crafting where you can make your own rares to sacrifice to the forge.

PELE DEMANDS SACRIFICE!

On a serious note, how often, if ever, do you blend exotics in the forge.

I don’t blend exotics , exotics i seem to lose money unlike swystix I suppose.

I stick just with rares and sell off the exo’s and lose very little or break even at todays crafting mat costs. I have gotten 12 percursors.

So I don’t understand, are you testing this in the name of SCIENCE?

No not science.. Math.. I was told the precursor chance had been increase….

My testing has proved otherwise.. I got many more at a supposed lower rate.

My method has not changed. My gold loss rate has increased due to the increase cost of materials and the apparent reduced chance of producing a common exotic to sell.

Are you attempting to create more precursors in a hope that the prices will eventually go down?

this already happened due to the november Fotm event … precursors dropped in half overnight… if you have tracked the market they are trading at a high again.

Also to anyone who is spending huge amounts of gold gambling for a precursor you might want to stick to the age old tradition of the piggy bank, it’s what I’m doing, and slowly but surely it’s working.

So basicly your asking why i tried the great toilet… I got tired of farming I had gold sitting around so I tried it and found it rather entertaining… Can you say you have held almost every exotic in your hand… seen every cool weapon graphic in the game without going to a website.

Yeah I can its been pretty awesome… and I keep the really awesome stuff for alts.

Playing the Trading post game for profit seemed over done and boring call me a gambler its been fun… but just like any gambler in a casino the ones that do well know the odds they play the odds and manipulate the ones that do not know the odds and profit off them.

So keep saving your pennies and by the time you have saved them prices will have doubled again and you will have to save more and more.

I thought 900g was enough … by the time i crafted my legendary i was sitting around 200g… , 200 for precursor i wanted, 100g icey runestones, 250g lodestones, then another 150g in clovers gifts blah blah… so yeah , grinding might give you 3g and hour or so if your lucky. thats 300h of grind for the gold.

Fyi… some of the exotics are pretty unsellable any ofhand item or underwater weapon , no one wants to pay the cash for an unseen weapon.
I kept The torch a spear, speargun, cause they would only sell for 8g obtained bolt and will start grinding karma again here eventually for Kudzu.