Guild Wars 2

Okay to start i know about throwing greatswords into the forge and getting a precursor (rare, exotic, levels and all that stuff) What i do not know is how is it determined when there are two greatsword precursors.
My question pertains to the mystic forge and the process of trying to get either of these greatswords (this may require a dev response).

So if i actually get the event of a precursor to occur does that mean I had twice as many chances for a precursor since there are 2 possible outcomes from greatsword precursors?
Little math to elaborate: lets say dusk = 1/1000 chance, dawn = 1/1000 chance.
dusk chance + dawn chance = 2/1000 (or to simplify) 1/500 chance of getting any of the two precursors.

Or is it
The event of getting a precursor(to use previous stuff 1/1000) and then is it a coin toss (50/50) for it to be dusk or dawn?
Edit: This question is trying to determine how you get either precursor, not the process of throwing stuff in the forge, but how is the precursor determined if there are two in the greatsword pool.

AFAIK this is how mystic forge calculates the outcome of what you toss in the there:

Let’s consider you only toss in great swords. This means the outcome is great sword. To simplify things, let’s say you toss in four level 80 exotics. This means you’ll get one level 80 exotic GS back. The exotic coming out of the forge is randomly one level 80 exotic GS in the game except the ones with specific mystic forge recipe. If there’s, say 20 exotics GS in the TP aka. in the MF item pool, the chances already are 1/20= 0,05.

If you toss in rares, the outcome is one of the level 80 rare great swords or one of the level 80 exotic swords. This makes the chances of getting that one desired weapon (aka Dusk) to be maybe ~ 1/150, depending of the total amount of level 80 rare/exotic great swords. You can calculate your precise chances simply by counting all the great swords which do not have mystic forge recipe in the TP and dividing the total amount by one, which is the weapon you want.

If you toss in Dawn and three other exotic great swords, you’re just wasting the precursor. It haves as good chances for getting dusk as four random crafted exotics.

i’m asking more towards what determines which precursor you get. i’ll edit it for clarity.

Nothing clarifies it except the item type. The most certain “clarification” you’ll get is putting up 4 exotic great swords, after that it’s random chance from the pool of exotic great swords.

You have exactly the same chance of getting Pearl skin great sword than Dusk at that point.

Thats not what he is asking atm.

For example , lets say you wanna make “the lover” and dusk

there are 26 shortbows you can get 3,85% chance to get it ( counted today by coincidence)
Lets say there are 26 Greatswords as wel
But the question is, Does dusk AND dawn count as individual swords of the 26 lot making the chance 7,69% instead of 3,85%
Or does Dusk/Dawn share the same “count” of 3,85%
Once you win that lotterly it goes into another lottery of 50% dusk or 50% dawn

This might be a “big” issue couse if it is, you might have a double chance to get a greatsword precursor then any other

There is exactly no reason to assume we’re “playing with a fair die” in this game. The fact that the level of the weapons tossed effect your chance of a precursor suggests you are not.

i’d say the later. because it’s the most “just” thing as a great sword precursor shouln’d have a greater chance of droping then any other precursors just because the legendary have 2 different skins.

however i can’t just go in here and say that this is correct without showing any numbers. but from my experience, ( i was very interested in the investigation of the ratio) the people crafting greatswords and other precursors had come out with somewhat the same values. so i’d say the later. due to numbers and simple logic.

since its based on RNG, random number generation, each item of its own coding, i would say you can throw percentages and statistics out of the picture. It’s pure blind luck.

I’ve got two mates in the guild that has randomed precursors on their second attempt in the mystic toilet where i’ve dumped in about 300-350 thus far and nada.

There are people that has thrown in 1500-2000 rare gs in the toilet with no luck as well.

the fact that most people came to somewhat same odds and if u sum the mall up you get an average of them witch the most don’t deviate to much from. so I would call it reliable enough to be used. but that’s just my opinion. and yes it rng so who knows.

Sojournion.1847:

since its based on RNG, random number generation, each item of its own coding, i would say you can throw percentages and statistics out of the picture. It’s pure blind luck.

Considering I’ve made profit in the long run by predicting outcomes from MF, I’d say you’re wrong on that part. RNG is RNG, but certain parts of it can be predicted and if it’s profitable on the long run, it’s worth doing.

There was a thread about making mystic forge profitable somewhere, too.

Sojournion.1847:

since its based on RNG, random number generation, each item of its own coding, i would say you can throw percentages and statistics out of the picture. It’s pure blind luck.

I’ve got two mates in the guild that has randomed precursors on their second attempt in the mystic toilet where i’ve dumped in about 300-350 thus far and nada.

There are people that has thrown in 1500-2000 rare gs in the toilet with no luck as well.

RNG is linked to percentages.

I don’t know how they code the MF rates, but in the end, with a large enough sample size, you get a % figure.

I guess its logical for us to try to find comfort in statistics by computing medians and averages to formula a percentage. I agree without a large amount of sample data we can pull a figure. Like in a roulette table, you can predict outcomes by looking at past data.

However bottom line, it is pure luck. It’s a gamble.

Use the OP theory of 1/1000 for an attempt to pull a precursor out of the toilet, its comforting to think that one will get it at the in one of those thousand tries. No its a chance to get it in those thousand tries.

Don’t get me wrong, I’d like to seek comfort into thinking that eventually i will get a precursor at one point from MF since I’d like own Sunrise.

I’m guessing since there’s both dusk and dawn, you have a 50% chance of dusk and 50% chance of dawn if you get lucky and win the precursor roll.

It probably doesn’t mean “You’re twice as likely because there’s two loot rolls”. If it was, I think we’d have seen lev 80 greatswords go up in price more as people started actually making long term profit throwing them in the MF for dusks and dawns.

No I don’t think greatswords have better chance of popping precursors due the fact that weapon class have 2 different precurors (while the other weapon class generally have only 1). For now the exo greatsword pool is about 30-ish. It does not mean that a precursor has a 2 in 30-ish chance of popping from the MF while using exotics.

From this update https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/info/news/Game-Update-Notes-November-15-2012, it is mentioned that the chance of creating precursors was slightly increased. From that I am guessing whenever an exotic gs is created MF, a roll is first done to determine if a precursor can be obtained. If the roll fails, the exotic gs will fall under the normal category (generic and named exotics) and another roll will be done to determine the exact gs obtained. In the case of gs, if the precursor roll succeeds, another roll will be done to determine whether Dusk or Dawn is to be obtained.

This is what I think anyways.