are some precursor prices dropping? i have seen dusk go from 750g a few months ago to around 600g now and dawn is hovering around 500g from 650g a few months ago. is this just a pattern that happens every so often or will they truly start dropping in price now?
im sorry but no, this is a ludicrous statement the game has only been out 8-9 months so how can you notice the trend of fluctuation considering the legendaries hit this price a couple of months ago, dont sway the player by trying to sound elite -_- imho yes the prices are dropping and will continue to drop, the items dont have that race value anymore so ppl arent in a rush to get them, not only that theyre getting more common which means they loose value
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Current Season – Platinum (Soloq)
Retired GW2 ESL Tournament Admin
im sorry but no, this is a ludicrous statement the game has only been out 8-9 months so how can you notice the trend of fluctuation considering the legendaries hit this price a couple of months ago, dont sway the player by trying to sound elite -_- imho yes the prices are dropping and will continue to drop, the items dont have that race value anymore so ppl arent in a rush to get them, not only that theyre getting more common which means they loose value
So ocgreg’s opinion is wrong and yours is right? It’s easy to see fluctuations in items over short periods of times if you check on those prices regularly. I watch prices for certain items and they continually rise and fall the same exact min/max prices like clockwork. Maybe ocgreg plays the TP and has paid a lot of attention to precursor prices since launch. He’s giving his SOLICITED advice just like you, so why the attack?
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im sorry but no, this is a ludicrous statement the game has only been out 8-9 months so how can you notice the trend of fluctuation considering the legendaries hit this price a couple of months ago, dont sway the player by trying to sound elite -_- imho yes the prices are dropping and will continue to drop, the items dont have that race value anymore so ppl arent in a rush to get them, not only that theyre getting more common which means they loose value
Just because you dont see a pattern in the data doesnt mean I am wrong. You are somehow negating that 8-9 months of data cant be enough to find a trend? That assumption is what is ludicrous. The prices hit this price a few months ago as well, and then they went back up. Now they are going down again. Maybe you should look up the definitions for ‘pattern’, ‘trend’ and ‘fluctuates’ before you try talking down to people when you are the one who hasn’t a clue what you are talking about. And I’m the one trying to sound elite? Oh please.
Pretty much this. Saying that prices were 750 a month ago is a bit misleading. If you actually look at the chart, the spikes where the price crosses over 700g are always short-lived.
I’m following Dusk right now (still saving gold), and it did drop to around the 550 – 570g in buy offers.
Mind you, when you buy a precursor, always make a buy order, never buy straight from the seller. Just make sure you’re always on top of the offers and you’ll get your precursor soon enough, and much cheaper than the sell offers.
im sorry but no, this is a ludicrous statement the game has only been out 8-9 months so how can you notice the trend of fluctuation considering the legendaries hit this price a couple of months ago, dont sway the player by trying to sound elite -_- imho yes the prices are dropping and will continue to drop, the items dont have that race value anymore so ppl arent in a rush to get them, not only that theyre getting more common which means they loose value
So ocgreg’s opinion is wrong and yours is right? It’s easy to see fluctuations in items over short periods of times if you check on those prices regularly. I watch prices for certain items and they continually rise and fall the same exact min/max prices like clockwork. Maybe ocgreg plays the TP and has paid a lot of attention to precursor prices since launch. He’s giving his SOLICITED advice just like you, so why the attack?
yes i may of sounded hostile but that was not my intent, just dont want the OP getting confused and making investments/dropping investments due to his comment, no mine isnt an oppinion its a fact, you cant state that it is “Fluctuating” when its starting on its 2nd dip, this is my reason for posting. since reaching the high price its stayed roughly the same with clear signs of buying and selling but no fluctuation has taken place to make it as dramatic as what is currently happening.
RedCobra – Ranked PVP Druid
Current Season – Platinum (Soloq)
Retired GW2 ESL Tournament Admin
yes i may of sounded hostile but that was not my intent, just dont want the OP getting confused and making investments/dropping investments due to his comment, no mine isnt an oppinion its a fact, you cant state that it is “Fluctuating” when its starting on its 2nd dip, this is my reason for posting. since reaching the high price its stayed roughly the same with clear signs of buying and selling but no fluctuation has taken place to make it as dramatic as what is currently happening.
How about looking at each precursor as a derivative of the stuff that it is actually made of?
Precursors are crafted by people by throwing rares and exotics into the mystic forge. If price of a rare sword goes down, because presumably some material ingredient (such as mithril, elder wood or large bone and whatnot) has gone down in price, then the price of precursor should follow too, as it is a bit cheaper to craft in the long run.
That said, I don’t see anything resembling a fact in anything you have said, just mere speculation that precursors will devalue, because “it is not a race item”. Should something happen tomorrow, like a massive cut off in supply of t5 mats, price of rares will soar and so should the price of the precursor… Why can’t we say it’s “fluctuating” then?
Since the pre’s are based entirely on luck, the mat prices really don’t make much difference. Even if the cost of rares and their mats go up, how many rares does it take to get one? I don’t think the prices even reflect that at all. I think theres a limit to what people will pay, but it’s hardly based on what the costs of mats are (or rares). You really don’t see a huge flux in prices based on anything other than drop rate changes. Looking over the data, it’s extremely clear that post Karka chest, the prices plummeted, that would be the indicator of enough fluctuation for a clearer picture than the cost of mats.
I can’t see precursor prices falling (not like there are enough to create a trend in the market anyways). More people are approaching a point in the game where they are thinking about legendaries because of the mats they might be hoarding, etc… As Anet makes more content that allows creation of wealth and materials, it’s a matter of time before more people will want their legendary weapon.
I think what’s happening is less people are caring about legendaries. Either they made theirs, or people who didn’t want one still don’t want one (no ascended weapons yet, and even if they add any more, we have enough AR available to easily do 48, whereas the jump to 50 requires faaaar more AR), or people are just losing steam with this game and moving on. A weapon skin isn’t exactly solid end game content, especially compared to other options on the market at the moment. FotM was great and all but it only changed dramatically up through level 20, past that each tier just adds more health and damage. No new mechanics, no new ideas, just bigger numbers.
The materials used to craft precursors are dropping in price and more people are hitting the threshold where they can craft them reliably. Of course prices will drop in line with that.
The materials used to craft precursors are dropping in price and more people are hitting the threshold where they can craft them reliably. Of course prices will drop in line with that.
Not necessarily clear cut that is the case
-the other legendary components get considerably cheaper, introducing more people who see it as an opportunity to make a legendary. However, this also increases demand for the precursor which has very limited supply
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The materials used to craft precursors are dropping in price and more people are hitting the threshold where they can craft them reliably. Of course prices will drop in line with that.
As Vox stated, if anything it would increases the price of precursors and by no mean decreases it. If more and more players get the necessary component and face the precursor wall, it means the demand for precursor is increasing while the supply is still the same → it leads to the prices rising up.
No, I think the fact the precursors are (slightly) diminushing in prices because of Colin’s recent post on precursors. He stated they are still working on a scavenging hunt while most players were thinking this idea was over.
In case of a scavenging hunt giving away precursors, we’d see a huge decrease in prices of said precursors so probably some people are freaking out and want to sell them before it is released.
Of course, it is only speculation.
What I think you’ll find is happening is that people are being less inclined to flip precursors once the price goes past a mystical value. Eventually the prices will drop a bit, and then the flippers will come back and start inflating again.
No, I think the fact the precursors are (slightly) diminushing in prices because of Colin’s recent post on precursors. He stated they are still working on a scavenging hunt while most players were thinking this idea was over.
No, I think the fact the precursors are (slightly) diminushing in prices because of Colin’s recent post on precursors. He stated they are still working on a scavenging hunt while most players were thinking this idea was over.
No, I think the fact the precursors are (slightly) diminushing in prices because of Colin’s recent post on precursors. He stated they are still working on a scavenging hunt while most players were thinking this idea was over.
Eh? Where was this post? Can I get a link to it?
Colin has also said several times now that precursors will be obtainable out of the new WvW rank-up chests, so there’s more speculation.
The materials used to craft precursors are dropping in price and more people are hitting the threshold where they can craft them reliably. Of course prices will drop in line with that.
I guess I’ll be the first one to ask, but: How do you craft a precursor reliably? And please don’t say MF, because that’s all but reliable. And what materials are you referring to? Like mats?
This world needs more people being frank and less people being offended.
The materials used to craft precursors are dropping in price and more people are hitting the threshold where they can craft them reliably. Of course prices will drop in line with that.
I guess I’ll be the first one to ask, but: How do you craft a precursor reliably? And please don’t say MF, because that’s all but reliable. And what materials are you referring to? Like mats?
You can’t. But I think he’s talking about T6 mats. But there is not reliable way to get one.
I’m nearly 400g deep into the slot mach- um forge.
“Failure to remain calm is the sign of a weak mind.”
The materials used to craft precursors are dropping in price and more people are hitting the threshold where they can craft them reliably. Of course prices will drop in line with that.
I guess I’ll be the first one to ask, but: How do you craft a precursor reliably? And please don’t say MF, because that’s all but reliable. And what materials are you referring to? Like mats?
You can’t. But I think he’s talking about T6 mats. But there is not reliable way to get one.
I’m nearly 400g deep into the slot mach- um forge.
Yeah, I know. I’m closing in on 600g mark. Last batch was last night, 70g worth of lvl 80 exotics and another 83g of lvl 78 rare. I could’ve bought the kitten thing from the TP by now if I wasn’t flushing it down the Mystic Toilet.
I was just confused that people were quoting him and replying to his comment even though it makes no sense, since there are no mats directly related to precursors in the sense of crafting.
This world needs more people being frank and less people being offended.
given the fact thakittens said that they are possible to get in the wvw chest when they come out and the price on t5 mats are very low now.
and saying that the t5 mats prices dont effect the precourser market is very naive way of thinking given that more will be makeing rare weapons and useing them in the MF. given that there then will come more precourses out will agien lower the price on them.
example if the price where 1 silver each t5 rare mat compared to 3 silver each rare mat then in chase of 1 silver mats there will most likely be more useing that as a option to make rare swords and get the precourser that way generation more precourses(going from that precoursers are generated at a fixed %) given there are more useing the mf for it,
Commander Korsbaek lvl 80 Guardian
Ayano Yagami lvl 80 ele
I guess I’ll be the first one to ask, but: How do you craft a precursor reliably?
Mystic forge. You need very large sample sizes for it to be a reliable, which requires both deep pockets and a lot of patience. The people cranking out precursors are throwing tens of thousands of rares into the forge; on that scale luck evens out and the recipes are consistently profitable.
There have been a lot (relatively) of people working the forge this weekend, and prices have reflected it. Precursor forge crafts are still the most profitable in the game, but if you don’t have the pockets and commitment to it you’ll go broke before the odds pull through.
Mystic forge. You need very large sample sizes for it to be a reliable, which requires both deep pockets and a lot of patience. The people cranking out precursors are throwing tens of thousands of rares into the forge; on that scale luck evens out and the recipes are consistently profitable.
How can you say that MF is a reliable way of getting a precursor? You can throw in 4 rares and get one, or you can throw 1m of exotics and get nothing.
Large sample size just means it will pop-up eventuallynotreliably.
Chance to get it is just that: a chance, it’s not guaranteed.
This world needs more people being frank and less people being offended.
Mystic forge. You need very large sample sizes for it to be a reliable, which requires both deep pockets and a lot of patience. The people cranking out precursors are throwing tens of thousands of rares into the forge; on that scale luck evens out and the recipes are consistently profitable.
How can you say that MF is a reliable way of getting a precursor? You can throw in 4 rares and get one, or you can throw 1m of exotics and get nothing.
Large sample size just means it will pop-up eventuallynotreliably.
Chance to get it is just that: a chance, it’s not guaranteed.
The chance of throwing in a million worth of exotics and not getting a precursor is so astronomically small it isn’t even worth considering.
So yes, it is a reliable way to get it should you have the capital to invest (which is in the thousands of gold).
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Mystic forge. You need very large sample sizes for it to be a reliable, which requires both deep pockets and a lot of patience. The people cranking out precursors are throwing tens of thousands of rares into the forge; on that scale luck evens out and the recipes are consistently profitable.
How can you say that MF is a reliable way of getting a precursor? You can throw in 4 rares and get one, or you can throw 1m of exotics and get nothing.
Large sample size just means it will pop-up eventuallynotreliably.
Chance to get it is just that: a chance, it’s not guaranteed.
The chance of throwing in a million worth of exotics and not getting a precursor is so astronomically small it isn’t even worth considering.
So yes, it is a reliable way to get it should you have the capital to invest (which is in the thousands of gold).
Considering that the tries are not statistically linked, meaning one try doesn’t affect your next try, I would say that after 1m tries you still have the same odds to get a precursor as in your first try.
Oh and if I have thousands (plural) of gold to throw for a precursor, why not just buy it from TP?
This world needs more people being frank and less people being offended.
How can you say that MF is a reliable way of getting a precursor?
I suspect we’re simply looking at this in very different ways. You should not be throwing rares into the forge hoping to get a precursor; on that scale you should be saving your money and investing elsewhere.
You throw rares into the forge when you are operating on a scale where you are trying to produce several precursors.
Trying for a precursor is gambling. Throwing 10,000 rares into the forge is a business plan. You don’t do this when you’re trying to figure out how to afford a precursor; you do it when you’re trying to figure out how to invest all the money you have because you’re treating your gold count as a high score.
How can you say that MF is a reliable way of getting a precursor?
I suspect we’re simply looking at this in very different ways. You should not be throwing rares into the forge hoping to get a precursor; on that scale you should be saving your money and investing elsewhere.
You throw rares into the forge when you are operating on a scale where you are trying to produce several precursors.
Trying for a precursor is gambling. Throwing 10,000 rares into the forge is a business plan. You don’t do this when you’re trying to figure out how to afford a precursor; you do it when you’re trying to figure out how to invest all the money you have because you’re treating your gold count as a high score.
I was just commenting on the part reliable way. Otherwise, I do agree with what you said here. Although, not sure why would you want that high score. But that’s a different discussion.
This world needs more people being frank and less people being offended.
Mystic forge. You need very large sample sizes for it to be a reliable, which requires both deep pockets and a lot of patience. The people cranking out precursors are throwing tens of thousands of rares into the forge; on that scale luck evens out and the recipes are consistently profitable.
How can you say that MF is a reliable way of getting a precursor? You can throw in 4 rares and get one, or you can throw 1m of exotics and get nothing.
Large sample size just means it will pop-up eventuallynotreliably.
Chance to get it is just that: a chance, it’s not guaranteed.
The chance of throwing in a million worth of exotics and not getting a precursor is so astronomically small it isn’t even worth considering.
So yes, it is a reliable way to get it should you have the capital to invest (which is in the thousands of gold).
Considering that the tries are not statistically linked, meaning one try doesn’t affect your next try, I would say that after 1m tries you still have the same odds to get a precursor as in your first try.
Oh and if I have thousands (plural) of gold to throw for a precursor, why not just buy it from TP?
the chance of getting it on first try and last try is the same yes if you look at them as single uses but if you have 1million uses in the mf for it you have that chance 1million times.
looking at it as a over all the person trowing in more is most likely also able to go out with more.
if we set the chance to get a precourser to 1% and you put 4 rares in there is 1% chance you get it.
but we are useing a diffrent approce for the 1million try’s.
with the first try you have 99% of not getting a precursor but your next try will be (99/100)*(99/100)and that gives you a total chance of not getting a precursor to be 98,01% now try do(99/100)^1 000 000= it will give you about 1,57 * 10^-4365% chance of not getting a precourser
(it will be a number with 4365 0’s before the first number get there wich is not 0)
yes the chance is there but if you do 1million tryes in the mf and dont get a precursor then i surgest staying in a bombshelter that can withstand a nuke and have enough food for your whole your life as your luck is so bad that you most likely have bigger problems then a precursor.
given the 1% chance you will need about 68 tryes to have 50% chance to get 1 precursor.
Commander Korsbaek lvl 80 Guardian
Ayano Yagami lvl 80 ele
What Korsbaek is trying to explain is that statistically speaking the chances to get a precursor is the same whether it is your first try or your 1000th but the chance for you to get no precursor in 10 tries is higher than in 1000 tries simply because of the cumulative probabilities and the large number law.
TP prices depend on farm area, right now drops that come from the SSC event are lowering the prices of several items including precursors. As long as there is a viable farm spot TP prices will fall.
As for the MF and getting a precursor, sure if you want to go gamble for it, good luck. I rather save my gold, but saving for a precursor sucks as you constantly feel like you’re getting no where fast. Personally I saved for my zap after i blew close to 100 exotic swords trying to forge for it, close to 1000 rare daggers going for a spark and about 200 rare great swords going for dusk or dawn.
Back on topic now, precursor prices will drop as long as there are drops from a good farm spot or a major event like the Ancient Karka which kitten ed off the entire server.
Arena net needs to find a way to allow players to make significant amounts of money (other than cof p1) and materials.
even 500g is a fortune!