Guild Wars 2

So I’ve been farming coffers from the holographic projectors for a while now (about 7 hours, 700-ish coffers total), and for the first day (6 hours) I got absolutely nothing but fireworks, food, and candy up until about the 6th hour, when I got my first Mini Holographic Risen Knight. Then today, I got nothing but candy for the first half hour. After that I started getting some food and 10 mins later I got two more Knights, followed promptly by a Jade ticket.

For those who actually farmed coffers and didn’t buy them from the TP, did you notice any trend involving increased frequency of rarer drops? Considering that I didn’t get squat from the first 600 coffers, and only started getting Holo knights right before the Jade ticket, I feel like Anet must’ve added some sort of loaded dice feature for farmed coffers.

Update: Since I first posted three days ago I farmed for two days straight, not receiving a single ticket (3000+ coffers). Today I had given up on farming due to the fact that half of the holos are not even real holos but sky pirate ambushes. So, I just decided to kill one for fun…and out pops the a Jade ticket on the first coffer of the day.

After all of this, I can conclude that it really is just luck (and I’m so happy that I got my second ticket after this recent patch!).

I’ve opened around 800 and not purchased any because they drop from mobs so often. I’ve not seen a pattern at all. I have not gotten a ticket but over 20 Holo Knights but in no particular order. I think I got like 3 knights in the first few hours since the event started but I was farming mobs like crazy, their occurrence still seems random and not specific to any area or mob.

It’s all RNG.

It’s a clustering illusion.

The clustering illusion refers to the tendency to erroneously perceive small samples from random distributions to have significant “streaks” or “clusters”, caused by a human tendency to underpredict the amount of variability likely to appear in a small sample of random or semi-random data due to chance.

Source: http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clustering_illusion (Smartphone friendly link)

It is the same effect happening when you flip a coin 10 times and get only tails. It is statistically normal (albeit not common), but people expect 5 tails/5 heads from any sample, because the odds are 50/50. Statistics don’t work like that.

I’ve opened around 1000 coffers, some farmed, some gotten from a friend (whom I send the candy too as he wanted the wings) and some bought from the trading post.
First coffee opened; a risen knight. Then loads of food, fireworks and candy, later another 2 knights, more candy etc, then finally the jade ticket!
Have not noticed any trend to be honest in suddenly getting better rewards, as the 2 knight tickets were gotten around noon and the ticket in the evening.

Seraph.9635:

It’s a clustering illusion.

The clustering illusion refers to the tendency to erroneously perceive small samples from random distributions to have significant “streaks” or “clusters”, caused by a human tendency to underpredict the amount of variability likely to appear in a small sample of random or semi-random data due to chance.

Source: http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clustering_illusion (Smartphone friendly link)

Wow, really good answer! Did not know about this phenomenon until now but that’s def. interesting.

BlueSoda.6297:

Seraph.9635:

It’s a clustering illusion.

The clustering illusion refers to the tendency to erroneously perceive small samples from random distributions to have significant “streaks” or “clusters”, caused by a human tendency to underpredict the amount of variability likely to appear in a small sample of random or semi-random data due to chance.

Source: http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clustering_illusion (Smartphone friendly link)

Wow, really good answer! Did not know about this phenomenon until now but that’s def. interesting.

Always remember that your brain is not properly equipped to handle a RNG on the fly.

I have farmed ALL of my coffers I’d say anywhere from 800-1000. I have received 3 weapon tickets and 13 holo knights, in the process of farming these I have received 3 wooden chests from mobs granting me 2 pairs of holo wings and a rare worth about 15 silver. It is all RNG as stated above.

Elidath.5679:

It is the same effect happening when you flip a coin 10 times and get only tails. It is statistically normal (albeit not common), but people expect 5 tails/5 heads from any sample, because the odds are 50/50. Statistics don’t work like that.

(tangent): I knew someone who claimed coins aren’t balanced, almost always come up heads, and proceeded to demonstrate it, getting heads 90%. He honestly believed it was the nature of coins, and everyone else was just wrong. After watching his hands, I told him to start the coin off on the other face. Suddenly it was tails 90%. The amazement in his eyes was priceless.

There was no mathematical oddity at work: he just had high dexterity leading to a really consistent flip, and subconsciously always held the coin with the same face up. (end tangent)

Gulesave.5073:

Elidath.5679:

It is the same effect happening when you flip a coin 10 times and get only tails. It is statistically normal (albeit not common), but people expect 5 tails/5 heads from any sample, because the odds are 50/50. Statistics don’t work like that.

(tangent): I knew someone who claimed coins aren’t balanced, almost always come up heads, and proceeded to demonstrate it, getting heads 90%. He honestly believed it was the nature of coins, and everyone else was just wrong. After watching his hands, I told him to start the coin off on the other face. Suddenly it was tails 90%. The amazement in his eyes was priceless.

There was no mathematical oddity at work: he just had high dexterity leading to a really consistent flip, and subconsciously always held the coin with the same face up. (end tangent)

Aww, this made me sad. Not because you answered it, but because you came to the obvious conclusion within your story and solved it. As soon as you said 90% I was thinking it’s how he’s flipping it.

rizzo.1079:

Always remember that your brain is not properly equipped to handle a RNG on the fly.

Sure it is. Adopt my life-motto.

Hope for the best, expect the worst, be satisfied with what you get

With this you really can’t be disappointed. It counters the side-effects of RNG. Also by-the-by, I’ve opened maybe 2 stacks of coffers, gotten 5 minis and 2 jade claim tickets.

Im around 2k coffers now, i stopped farming the holos about 4 days ago and just started to go with what ever dropped as I was WvW.

Got 3 tickets from doing the intense farming for the first week, got another 1 while just opening 30 or so coffers i got over a nights of wvwing after i stopped farming the holos, and I bought about 20 yesterday morning and the first one i opened poped out another ticket…

So 5 tickets for me so far, and im not even trying any more after the first 3. Brother still hasnt had a single ticket and he’s opened at least 1.2k… over 20 mini holos as well for me, interesting thing is, out of the 20 ive stuck in the forge since the event started, ive gotten 3 mini shades out of em (and a troll, which i got first), heck yesterday as i was sticking the last 4 in i said to myself, bet this pops out a shade… and out came a shade.

While it may be RNG, it sure feels like some people have more or a chance than others. Thing is its pretty hard to make truly random generated numbers from what I understand so any RNG system could potentially have ‘lucky’ spots in it some people are more prone to residing in for what ever reason.