Guild Wars 2

Is it bad I dont feel very bad for the people who tried to flip the Chaos of Lyssa and now are stuck with it and gotta eat the loss? I do feel bad for the people who bought it with all their gold and used the recipe though…

It doesn’t say by how much though >>
they could have increased it by the slightest fraction, but only time will tell if they really increased it.

If it kittenes you off, I flipped this very same item over the weekend for 700g profit.

Very low risk considering drop rates or patch never come down on weekends

People who bought the recipe for thousands of gold, or placed buy orders on weekdays, I have no sympathy for.

Vol.7601:

If it kittenes you off, I flipped this very same item over the weekend for 700g profit.

Very low risk considering drop rates or patch never come down on weekends

It wouldnt kitten me off so much if you wanted to share some of that sweet, sweet gold with me…

This is how they cull some of the gold from the more wealthy players in the game. Low drop rate for a few weeks on a very rare and exclusive item. People buy it as a prestige item for a thousand gold or more and then they slightly increase the drop rate for the next month and the price comes down a bit and more people get it.

Iason Evan.3806:

This is how they cull some of the gold from the more wealthy players in the game. Low drop rate for a few weeks on a very rare and exclusive item. People buy it as a prestige item for a thousand gold or more and then they slightly increase the drop rate for the next month and the price comes down a bit and more people get it.

they arent culling gold from the rich, because they were primarily trading with the rich. one guy beats another rich guy.

This has probably burnt enough flippers that they will stay away from scamming people for a few weeks which should drop the prices on some items. Good move by Anet.

Any experienced TP flipper should accepted there was a significant risk to flipping this item and that Anet could increase the droprate at any moment. It was pretty darn obvious that the droprate for this thing was way too low especially compared to the other god backpieces.

Smithay.1635:

This has probably burnt enough flippers that they will stay away from scamming people for a few weeks which should drop the prices on some items. Good move by Anet.

All flippers do is make money from players being impatient about their gold. How in anyway are they scamming anyone? Someone is clearly bitter.

Smithay.1635:

This has probably burnt enough flippers that they will stay away from scamming people for a few weeks which should drop the prices on some items. Good move by Anet.

How can you scam someone on an exchange where both parties have to agree to the same price before a transaction occurs? If someone thinks an item is overpriced then they can simply choose to not purchase it at that price.

i’m just glad i made quite a fortune of this item. Now i should go back to crafting this item

sishbob.3987:

Is it bad I dont feel very bad for the people who tried to flip the Chaos of Lyssa and now are stuck with it and gotta eat the loss? I do feel bad for the people who bought it with all their gold and used the recipe though…

No, according to John Smith (Team Anet), by increasing the drop rate of something precious, in the short run will increase demand, thus driving up the price even more. (Assuming demand is increasing at a faster rate than supply. )

Got two already from about 1500 tickets

I don’t feel bad either. This is the flip side of speculation. You can mitigate the risk by having experience about game trends and when patches go live (see Vol’s post), but you also never know. ANet could decide something was urgent enough to hotfix it over a weekend, which has happened before.

Anyway, now that the chances have increased, I’m going to start farming for the recipe for my own use. Or, if I don’t have any luck, I’m sure that by the end of the event prices will be down to 20g or less, and I can just buy one.

Zaxares.5419:

I don’t feel bad either. This is the flip side of speculation. You can mitigate the risk by having experience about game trends and when patches go live (see Vol’s post), but you also never know. ANet could decide something was urgent enough to hotfix it over a weekend, which has happened before.

Anyway, now that the chances have increased, I’m going to start farming for the recipe for my own use. Or, if I don’t have any luck, I’m sure that by the end of the event prices will be down to 20g or less, and I can just buy one.

Not sure it will ever get that low.

Maybe not THAT low, but we still have 4 weeks to go. That’s a lot of time for farmers to get to work.

Any decent flipper/speculator wouldn’t have used all their gold to flip the recipe; when speculating on anything, you always assume the price will eventually crash, so typical strategy is to try and make more than your going to lose in the end.

Flippers had two weeks to make something like 500~700g per flip, so unless they only just started a couple days before the patch, they made their money back and more. Nothing to feel bad about.

Cyvien.8049:

sishbob.3987:

Is it bad I dont feel very bad for the people who tried to flip the Chaos of Lyssa and now are stuck with it and gotta eat the loss? I do feel bad for the people who bought it with all their gold and used the recipe though…

No, according to John Smith (Team Anet), by increasing the drop rate of something precious, in the short run will increase demand, thus driving up the price even more. (Assuming demand is increasing at a faster rate than supply. )

Looking at the prices, this theory doesn’t match with reality. Which was to be expected.

Astralporing.1957:

Looking at the prices, this theory doesn’t match with reality. Which was to be expected.

Really? Because from what I see supply spiked 10 times on this item and demand doubled down (talking about situation before/after patch). Or did you have another item in mind?

I think this item is different from precursors. First of all, it’s a recipe for a back item some people don’t even like. Also, because it’s a recipe, people are weighing two things: do I like the backpiece enough to spend a chunk of gold on the recipe and do I like the backpiece enough to spend a chunk of gold on the materials to make the backpiece. Your average player, unless they absolutely love the piece, probably won’t say yes to both.

Precursors are, as we well know, for legendaries which hold a higher “prestige” (I know people don’t think this, but many more casual players do.). Having precursors more available will tell a casual player “you can have this too!” Which will cause them to buy it. The chaos of lyssa recipe doesn’t have that status.

I would not be making this backpiece if a friend didn’t gift me the recipe. I couldn’t justify the cost of the recipe. But I can justify the materials to make it. But I think this is why John Smith’s precursor doubling economic theory doesn’t really apply here. This item does not hold precursor status. So, price will go down until it reaches, as the others say, a market equilibrium. My guess is that that will be somewhere around 100g during the event and probably 200-400 after. (But I’m no economist so I don’t know what I’m talking about, it makes sense to me though. )

Freeelancer.2860:

Astralporing.1957:

Looking at the prices, this theory doesn’t match with reality. Which was to be expected.

Really? Because from what I see supply spiked 10 times on this item and demand doubled down (talking about situation before/after patch). Or did you have another item in mind?

The price dropped like a rock, instead of climbing. So perhaps you were talking about a different item?

I think he’s just annoyed that he doesn’t have enough gold to afford it. He probably expected it to drop to 30s or something..

Probably true. I’m grateful to have mine though. I didn’t think it would go down to crazy low levels…. only 2 weeks left of farming it. :/

Astralporing.1957:

Freeelancer.2860:

Astralporing.1957:

Looking at the prices, this theory doesn’t match with reality. Which was to be expected.

Really? Because from what I see supply spiked 10 times on this item and demand doubled down (talking about situation before/after patch). Or did you have another item in mind?

The price dropped like a rock, instead of climbing. So perhaps you were talking about a different item?

Dont mix up sell listings with supply. I am pretty sure, even before the patch when no listings were on the TP, there was plenty of supply that people were holding on to.
We also have no info on how much recipes per day dropped and sold before and after the patch.

@Lilith: Lucky you! I wish I had a mysterious admirer to gift me that recipe too.

Anyway, it’s Day 2 since the patch and supply has already climbed to more than 20 (from just 6 at the same time yesterday). Prices are almost at the 100g range, and like I said, there’s still 4 weeks to go till the Pavilion goes away. I doubt the recipe’s price will collapse completely, but it’s definitely not going to increase again any time soon. (Not to mention there’s a good chance this recipe will come back again the next time the Pavilion returns, so it’s not something I’d be comfortable investing in.)

Smithay.1635:

This has probably burnt enough flippers that they will stay away from scamming people for a few weeks which should drop the prices on some items. Good move by Anet.

I don’t think you understand the meaning of the word scam.

The hell are they teaching in school now?

Wanze.8410:

Astralporing.1957:

Freeelancer.2860:

Astralporing.1957:

Looking at the prices, this theory doesn’t match with reality. Which was to be expected.

Really? Because from what I see supply spiked 10 times on this item and demand doubled down (talking about situation before/after patch). Or did you have another item in mind?

The price dropped like a rock, instead of climbing. So perhaps you were talking about a different item?

Dont mix up sell listings with supply. I am pretty sure, even before the patch when no listings were on the TP, there was plenty of supply that people were holding on to.
We also have no info on how much recipes per day dropped and sold before and after the patch.

The point is that the price plummeted. So the belief that the price would go up temporarily was wrong.

The assessment you were trying to disprove had an important preamble that the demand needs to increase faster then supply. The item in question didn’t use that scenario, just the opposite in fact.

Lilith Ajit.6173:

Probably true. I’m grateful to have mine though. I didn’t think it would go down to crazy low levels…. only 2 weeks left of farming it. :/

You have till July 1st actually.

Freeelancer.2860:

The assessment you were trying to disprove had an important preamble that the demand needs to increase faster then supply.

It might have seemed so, but in fact the preamble was also part of the thesis. yes, if the demand increases faster than supply, price rises. Nobody questions that. The real thesis however was that uping the drop rate would cause such increase in demand over supply, and thus increase the price.

John Smith.4610:

The point I made a long time ago about precursor rates increasing price was speaking to an anomaly that can/did occur with a very specific set of market circumstances. It does not automatically applies to other markets or changes.

One of those market circumstances is the % increase of the precursor rates. Whatever increases the precursor drop chance has changed by, it is clearly not comparable to the Chaos of Lyssa changes, so the two aren’t comparable.

I feel sorry for the people who spent a lot of gold for the recipe…

…And I envy those who sold it to them.

Buy orders dropped to 60g last night. O.o (It’s back up to about 80’ish right now.) And that was after getting through a 14 recipe buy wall at 90-something gold! There might be a lot more recipes dropping than the forum posts are indicating. (Either that, or a lot of demand is dropping off now that the backpiece isn’t so exclusive anymore.)

I’ve just finished murdering Halmi for the 400th time and opened my 2000th chance bag since the patch, total haul: 2000 tokens, 3 favors of the pavilion.

My hat’s off to the people who have been able to grind more bags than that, you have far more patience and focus that I do.

I wonder how many of these recipes are going to players who want to craft the item as opposed to players that want to buy something rare and flip it months later. Personally I hate when items are like that, even if a player wants the item, it’s so rare the gold value is usually more important to the individual. These items tend to go to the richest players who can easily afford to buy them as opposed to the poorer players who work hard and really want the item but they don’t have a gold so they sell it to a TP flipper who just wants more expensive bling.

The TA Aether weapons look really cool and I’d like to use them on my sylvari guardian but even if I had one drop, their gold value is so high I would never equip one myself.

sishbob.3987:

Is it bad I dont feel very bad for the people who tried to flip the Chaos of Lyssa and now are stuck with it and gotta eat the loss?

No.

There is a reason why in economics investments like this are referred to as “risk”. Sometimes an investment like this falls through unexpectedly, but that is simply a matter of course and a wise investor won’t place all his funds into a single venture.

Shiren.9532:

I wonder how many of these recipes are going to players who want to craft the item as opposed to players that want to buy something rare and flip it months later.

Those folks should be careful with their gold investments. I remember during Wintersday I opened probably 30,000 Wintersday gifts and received many of the Dwayna/Grenth recipes. I was quite shocked at the buy orders people were putting in for them (something like 7g per Grenth and 15g per Dwayna at the time I was selling). I saw folks buy orders for 30-50 of them at those prices at the time.

I just couldn’t understand how they were going to make a profit. I sold directly to them since I knew personally if anyone actually wanted those recipes they would have got them when they were significantly cheaper earlier in Wintersday (maybe 2-5g each recipe). It’s amusing to me to look at the TP and see that those recipes are STILL not selling for as much as I sold to these long term flippers.

Same type of thing could happen here, as not everyone will want this back and if the demand is just like Grenth/Dwayna where most of the demand is from flippers at the current time then they too will be burned in the long term as they compete with one another to find those elusive people who actually still want to buy it.