Guild Wars 2

What the heck is the chance of it?

I hear of people getting them after a couple hundred bags, is it bugged or something?

This is insanity.

Could someone explain this personalized trick-or-treat bag thing? I am so confused as to what this is and how it is different from the normal trick-or-treat bags that are dropping off of monsters.

personal ones come from the kids in LA after giving them candy

Over exaggerate much? 23k personalized bags would be over 500 full stacks of candy corn.

No, I’ve poured over 100 gold into it. I counted.

TheRabbit.9478:

Over exaggerate much? 23k personalized bags would be over 500 full stacks of candy corn.

^lol was thinking the same thing

100g would buy you 200 stacks of candy corn at the cheapest price they’ve ever been. So, you counted wrong.

and what’s an endless tonic? what does it do?

Ditton.3149:

personal ones come from the kids in LA after giving them candy

But how is it differentiated from a normal bag? I hear their soulbound vs. the normal bags are not soulbound, but there HAS to be more to it, right? What’s the point of a soulbound bag that disappears when you open it?

As you open more, you get more candy corn. I remember having 3000 bags at a time when I would try and have not gotten one after 7 or so times.

if you poured 100 gold into getting an endless tonic… you sir have some issue with prioritizing your resources..

just saying IMO

So it is you I have to thank for my 6 bank expansions and new town cloths… thanks m8. BTW I’ll have another couple stacks for you soon, here’s hoping your luck improves; mine has.

DumpTruck.2945:

if you poured 100 gold into getting an endless tonic… you sir have some issue with prioritizing your resources..

just saying IMO

You would think it wouldn’t take this much, but then I just got mad. Especially when you’re doing it and hear in map chat people getting it in less than 1% of the bags you tried. Repeatedly.

Tommyknocker.6089:

So it is you I have to thank for my 6 bank expansions and new town cloths… thanks m8. BTW I’ll have another couple stacks for you soon, here’s hoping your luck improves; mine has.

cruel, but funny

Tommyknocker.6089:

So it is you I have to thank for my 6 bank expansions and new town cloths… thanks m8. BTW I’ll have another couple stacks for you soon, here’s hoping your luck improves; mine has.

funny, but cruel

puppetmancer.4679:

What the heck is the chance of it?

I hear of people getting them after a couple hundred bags, is it bugged or something?

This is insanity.

well i have bad news for you

personalized bags have different drop table than normal ones

and theres no endless tonic in them, but they have recipes for mad king runes and give more halloween materials and candies

Brink.6175:

Could someone explain this personalized trick-or-treat bag thing? I am so confused as to what this is and how it is different from the normal trick-or-treat bags that are dropping off of monsters.

Personal ToT bags are soulbound. That is the only difference that I’ve noted. I also believe they can not be used to as a crafting mat like the regular ToTs for artificer potion making.

I address Personal ToT bags in this thread: https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/halloween/Halloween-Act-1-Informational-Aid-With-ToT-Locations/first#post528360

BowmasterSol.3457:

Brink.6175:

Could someone explain this personalized trick-or-treat bag thing? I am so confused as to what this is and how it is different from the normal trick-or-treat bags that are dropping off of monsters.

Personal ToT bags are soulbound. That is the only difference that I’ve noted. I also believe they can not be used to as a crafting mat like the regular ToTs for artificer potion making.

I address Personal ToT bags in this thread: https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/halloween/Halloween-Act-1-Informational-Aid-With-ToT-Locations/first#post528360

Ah, thank you sir. Very helpful!

They also have a higher drop rate (seemingly) of non-candy corn.

puppetmancer.4679:

DumpTruck.2945:

if you poured 100 gold into getting an endless tonic… you sir have some issue with prioritizing your resources..

just saying IMO

You would think it wouldn’t take this much, but then I just got mad. Especially when you’re doing it and hear in map chat people getting it in less than 1% of the bags you tried. Repeatedly.

please, for your own sake, never gamble in real life.

here’s how you’re supposed to gamble: you set aside some money (NOT ALL OF IT, and not a huge amount either), and you gamble with it. you lose that money, you call it a day. you profit, you call it a day, or you set that profit aside and pretend it doesn’t exist.

It’s not the point of the gamble, it’s the fact no one has gotten as high as me without getting one, the closet I have heard is 7000 and they got one. Which is why I created this thinking it is broken.

It’s not. You’re just obviously very unlucky.

Out of curiosity, why in the world did you spend so much time and gold on 1 tonic?

I got one endless tonic as a drop right after I gave up on this depressing Halloween event and decided to go back to GW and spend Halloween there where it so much better.

Well when you don’t really want anything else and try to aim for something you see hundreds of people get relatively easy I thought it would be worth it. Now it’s for the principle that if people through my time opening can get them off a .004% chance of bags that I have opened (At least 6 as I was doing it) something is wrong.

God, I’m so sick of the tonic drop rates. First I spent a fortune on BLCs for one (yes, probably 100g), now this. I’ve opened over 1000 without one now, and seeing this post is just disheartening. Why must you torture us tonic lovers Anet?! Just make them tradeable and end this madness, or make the drop rate sane!

Just keep in mind too the way I was able to do this was resell all the materials I got from opening to continue going. Not to mention any halloween skin I traded for or was lucky enough to amass from opening my chests (60 total for 2 greatswords a shield and scythe which helped me start all this). I’m just.. blah. I give up.

Yeah, that’s what I’ve been doing too, but it still costs like 15 silver per candy corn stack since the stuff inside the bags is only worth about half what you spent on it.

I really don’t understand the tonic system… why are they account bound? Most people hate them and so they just throw them out, but the few people who actually really want them have to spend legendary amounts of gold to get them. It’s a lose-lose for everyone involved.

edit: nvm thanks for the post anyway, i was doing searches under the wrong name as it was “endless halloween tonic” that yielded the info and reselling the mats do help alot to get more candys and more tot bags, fingers crossed for everyone

The toilet paper thread (https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/halloween/Endless-rolls-of-toilet-paper/first#post528708) talks about it, and if you google it you’ll find a pic of it. It is akin to the 3 endless tonics found in BLCs (which ALSO have obcene droprates: I opened over 350 a month ago and finally got the tree one on my second to last chest… it’s not really even possible to do anymore with how high gem prices are).

Jabberwock.9014:

Yeah, that’s what I’ve been doing too, but it still costs like 15 silver per candy corn stack since the stuff inside the bags is only worth about half what you spent on it.

I really don’t understand the tonic system… why are they account bound? Most people hate them and so they just throw them out, but the few people who actually really want them have to spend legendary amounts of gold to get them. It’s a lose-lose for everyone involved.

Try this:
https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/halloween/More-Halloween-Goodies/528651

Well, that will be a good use for the incredible amount of temp tonics and boosts I have… but there is no indication halloween tonics will be in there. Anet, if you are reading this: PLEASE make endless halloween tonics a (not ridiculously rare) drop from the mad king chests… or as I’ve said make them tradeable.

/hatethetonics
chew up space, waste of time … I wish I could sell them. I feel for the OP regardless of having 10k+ or 20k+attempts … that’s pretty terribly drop rate.

1 in 23,000 … seriously 0.0000434782608695652%

o.O (scratches head – thinking ya gotta be kiddin)???

ewww … and your still looking? That is just cruel and disheartening

If an item has a drop rate of 1/1000, then the chances of you striking out after opening 1000 in a row is (999/1000)^1000 or 37% chance of being unlucky. You are NOT guaranteed at all to get an item with a .1% drop rate if you roll for it 1000 times. That’s not how probability works.

If you opened 3000 bags at the same rate your chance of being extremely unlucky would be (999/1000)^3000 = 5% chance of no dice.

It’s a small chance but it exists and is significant. You should at least know this much about probability before playing lotteries.

BTW, if the drop rate is 1/10000, the probability of being the OP is (9999/10000)^23000, which is 10%. Not exactly far out there.

The should allow you to put 4 stacks of 250 tonics of your choice in mystic forge in order to create the endless version

puppetmancer.4679:

You would think it wouldn’t take this much, but then I just got mad. Especially when you’re doing it and hear in map chat people getting it in less than 1% of the bags you tried. Repeatedly.

I know how you feel. Someone linked the Endless Tonic in map chat, so I looked it up online and the first thread I found had people getting it anywhere between 10 bags (luckiest) and 600 (unluckiest, or so I thought). So, I did the math, figured 7.5 gold (the price for 15 stacks of Candy Corn at the time) was worth a piece of fun halloween memorabilia.

2376 bags later and I finally got it. I remember just doubling down and doubling down and doubling down. Once you get a certain amount of coin into it, you kind of feel like you HAVE to get it, otherwise it feels like you just threw away all of that money. I just kept going back to the trading post and successively buying more and more stacks of candy corn. I opened the last 1000 some odd bags I got in a row ’cause I purchased A TON of candy corn. I got it when I only had, like, 28 bags left in my inventory. It really is an abysmal chance.

If you weren’t already so invested in it, to the point where I’m not sure if you’ll stop, I’d tell you that it wasn’t worth it.

It gives you four (FOUR?!!!!) random forms you can change into. Candy Corn Golem, Mummy, Glow-in-the-Dark Skeleton, and Plastic Spider. If it had the Ghost transform in there (the only one I ACTUALLY WANTED) then I might’ve considered it more worthwhile, but at the moment, it’s literally a joke.

Totally got tricked on Halloween.

LOL I got one after opening my first Bag today. I must be awesome.

it’s nice being an artificer….have all halloween tonic recipes and stacking up on my tonics for the future

Haha, well, I honestly don’t even NEED the endless tonic anymore, I have so many temporary ones it’s insane. At least 100 of each. I wish I could Mystic Forge them into something useful now that I have the Endless Tonic.

If you could sell them on the TP the system wouldn’t be so aggravating.

At least then the people who got it with 1 bag could sell it to the people who’ve opening thousands (like myself) and just want to buy the kitten thing.

Bind on Acquire and gambling only is a cruel and unnecessary system- market forces would still encourage people to gamble.

MikeRocks.9243:

2376 bags later and I finally got it. I remember just doubling down and doubling down and doubling down. Once you get a certain amount of coin into it, you kind of feel like you HAVE to get it, otherwise it feels like you just threw away all of that money.

Owned by the sunken costs fallacy.

Awesome.6120:

Owned by the sunken costs fallacy.

Haha, I won’t deny that. In my head I was just like, “You know, you really should just stop now” but then that little devil on my shoulder just kept going, “But it could be in, like, the very next bag! Think of all the money you just wasted if it is!”

I knew I shouldn’t have fired that little Angel fella that keeps me in check, but I couldn’t afford keeping him around AND buy gems from ANET. :P

Ok, I can’t take this anymore. I’ve lost track but I’ve certainly opened over 2000, and might have even reached 3000 bags, and still nothing. For the love of god Anet, if you release something with such an abysmal drop rate at least make it tradeable! I seriously just can’t wrap my mind around the logic of having tonics account bound. If there’s any item which epitomizes “one man’s junk is another man’s treasure”, tonics are it. The market EXISTS for this kind of item!

It seems like Anet is pissing a lot of people off with this event. I don’t know what the hell happened to them. They used to be so in tune with what players want. Did all of the original Anet team leave and a whole new team made GW2 or something? Because that’s the only logical explanation for this total reversal of… well, everything they’ve ever said. I hope they can fix this debacle. I have a bad feeling that they’ve screwed the pooch with this. I can see a lot more people turning to buying items for real world money from gold farmers after this. They’re obliterating fan loyalty.

reminds me of the polar bear mini in gw1… some people got more than 1.. others never did :P

it’s called the RNG for a reason. I feel sorry for you that you are incredibly unlucky, but the fact that some lucky people got them by opening less bags than you means that it is not broken.

I can however get behind Jabberwock’s idea that the tonics be made tradable. Maybe make them account bound only after the first use or something.

Has anybody gotten one out of a non-personalized version? They seem to have even worse drops than the personalized ones…

Wow i feel incredibly lucky i got mine with 200 personal bags

I opened hundreds tonight with no EL tonic. Probably over 600 but I didn’t keep count. I did get a few superior rune recipes which recouped basically all of my costs though. Dunno if it’s worth the carpel tunnel of opening more bags.

I only used Personalized Bags. Not sure if it’s available in the normal ones.

I didn’t want to ‘risk’ it. :\