Guild Wars 2

Alright everyone. This post is not to boast or rub it in or anything like that. This is to help those that might want to gamble on the Black Lion Chest to get the skins of their choice. So they can get a better idea of what the drop rate might be. I opened 1500 Black Lion Chests throughout the event. I got the following skins:

5 Deathly Bull’s Shoulderpads
6 Deathly Pauldrons
2 Chain sword
4 Severed Dagger
3 Deathly Bull’s Pauldrons
2 Scythe Staff
1 Deathly Mantle
2 Greatsaw Greatsword
2 Ghastly Grinning Shield
1 Deathly Avion Mantle
2 Deathly shoulderpads
3 Deatlhy Avion Pauldrons
2 Grinning Guard Rifles
1 Endless Mystery Tonic (drop rate is 1 in 1500)

If my math is correct you will have a 2% chance in getting a skin. If my math is wrong please be kind enough to correct it. I hope this has been an informative thread. I wish all who try to get these the best of luck because it took opening a lot of chests to get these.

Ouch. yeah the chances are horrible , cant even contest that.

Ty for your work on this btw.

Have you recycled your chest trash into mad king chests as of yet?

Care sharing how much you spent on keys?

Prenavo, yes. I didn’t include those in my experiment.

@TerryLong, RL money I spent about $250. The rest I had a lot of gold that I converted back over to gems.

Thanks for sharing the information I opened around 50 chests including mkc but didnt get any skin so nothing special to input myself, just wanted to say thanks for your rather large pool of experiement

2% is around what I was expecting when I bought 25 keys. But really? You opened 1500 chests?

@Qelris. Yep. I think I might open another 250. Not sure though.

Ah I forgot to ask, did you by any chance get a endless mystery tonic that was supposedly dropped from the blc chests?

@Kaderin, as a matter of fact I did. I completely forgot about that. I only got one.

Baron Von Graymouse.7801:

@Kaderin, as a matter of fact I did. I completely forgot about that. I only got one.

Again, thank you for the information I was aiming for one but the chances are as low and most likely lower then the skins it seems…but that was sort of expected

Wait … that mean the chance of getting an endless TP and Bank is less than 1/1500 :P?

2%

OUCH! Come on!? Seriously? Such a huge grab to monetize.

yikes…completely unnecessary – get rid of the LOTTO and just sell stuff outright – sure, people like to “get lucky” but even more people will get PO’d at wasting real money on nothing . Maybe Anet will learn their lesson on this one when only a fraction of the people who spent money on this event buy anything at all next event.

That’s 2% for a skin, any skin? Most of them are the shoulder pads, which are pretty cheap on the broker.. What’s the chance of getting a weapon skin? Or a specific weapon skin? Looks like 0.3% or so?

Vzur.7123:

That’s 2% for a skin, any skin? Most of them are the shoulder pads, which are pretty cheap on the broker.. What’s the chance of getting a weapon skin? Or a specific weapon skin?

Mate he posted the amount of each weapon he got , from there is basic math the % to get each skin. If we consider this a valid pool ofc.

So, you’re that guy from reddit?

Thanks, I expected something more like 0.05%, but with 2% chances to win at least better than in lottery. Now you can open 750 mad king chests and make a new study.

How many extra keys did you get? I used to get extra keys frequently when opening chests. According to the gambling addicts I’ve spoken to—those who pumped a lot of money into a random chance—they got none, or only one extra key from 25 or more chests. It is a frequent complaint.

thats about the same % i got from opening 100, I got the rifle and greatsword skins

@Roezz I got on average 12-15 keys per 45 chests.

@Halo no I am in Boris Path.