Guild Wars 2

Kaineneg and yaks Bend for next week…other possibilities SBI EBay would probably be interesting too since their great love for BP

SoS, Mag, CD – and I’d have to leave the forums for the week LOL

Miller’s Sound:
Two random server out of numbers 5 – 10 from EU-ladder. But not both German speaking at the same time. Maybe Piken Square and Kodash would be perfect.
It’s real fun to fight Gandara and Aurora Glades. But we really need some strong opponents kicking the kitten out of us. Otherwise we get fat and lazy.

Strever.8764:

As an HoD perspective i’d just like to fight the servers who claim to have the best roamers/small mans. Idc about rank/ppt/etc. just bring some individual skill and we can duke it out.

That would be Ehmry Bay , in every matchup thread they have they will forum-warrior about how great their roaming is and thrash bigger servers about their open field tactics.

Chris.3290:

SoS, Mag, CD – and I’d have to leave the forums for the week LOL

Agree next week for SoS I want any combination of Mag CD and Ebay.

Either FSP, MS, AG or GH would be nice.

What? Another reset? Anet please we are happy in current matchup even if we are not winning.
Please please please dont screw next week matchups

Here are the estimated matchup probabilities for next week’s matches, based on estimated ratings calculated from this week’s current scores.

-ken

I have a question, what have been the odds of SoS getting TC 6 out of 7 times? Given that they are always at least 3 spaces away and 250+ away in rankings. I don’t know enough about sadistics, I mean statistics to figure it out but I’m pretty sure that SoS players should be buying more lottery tickets.

I’m not sure if I can calculate that. I’m pretty sure I can’t calculate it using my current tools; I would probably need to write some new code to do that.

The rank difference between TC and SoS isn’t directly relevant, nor is the rating difference. Or rather, the differences are only relevant in combination with the ratings of all the other servers. It’s not really possible to calculate the probabilities for a single server — you always have to calculate everything for all servers in a single region, even if you’re only interested in one of them, because the matchups that other servers get can affect the probabilities of your own matchups.

odd that you should mention the lottery. the matchups are very much like a lottery — there are a huge number of possible matchup sets (and by “matchup set” I mean the full set of 8 matchups in NA, or the full set of 9 matchups in EU) and individually each of them has a relatively low probability. in the same way, there are a huge number of possible lottery results, and individually each lottery result has a very low probability (the differences are, in GW2 not all outcomes have the same probability and the total number of possible outcomes is a lot lower)

and yet, regardless of how improbable any particular combination may be, when it comes up, it comes up. the lottery is a stunning example of a process where you are pretty much guaranteed to see an improbable outcome occur week after week.

-ken

Oh, and I meant to say 5/7 times we faced TC.

It makes a perverse sort of sense that we have in some regards. Not counting the other servers (T1 has to have ridiculously low roll to come down to T2) it would appear to be odds of over 60% if you use a simple Low/0/High roll to determine movement. If SoS rolls high, then they are certain to face TC, just as TC is certain to face SoS if they roll low where as the odds are still good if either rolls slightly high/low and the other rolls zero.

However there are 2 other servers in T3 and 2 others in T2 and not to mention T4. The only way the math has made sense if if SoS has rolled >0 in all but one of the seven matches.

There’s always the possibility that the rest of T3 rolled .99 while SoS rolled only a slight negative to get T2 once or twice, but the odds of TC/DB facing T3, even if both servers in question rolled low are pretty out there…though that would explain that week with TC/CD/SoS

Either way, it seems impossible for either SoS or Maguuma to get a break from T2 hate sandwiches (no hate from them or even us, just RNG hate).

It doesn’t matter what the odds are – hasn’t made a difference so far. SoS you know you’re going to be facing TC.

I’d put it at 99% chance of SoS and TC together. And if you’re not with TC it’ll be SoR just for laughs.

Oh and yeah, if you all ever get together and go to a casino, invite me. I want to play some roulette with you all.

nirx.7346:

Miller’s Sound:
It’s real fun to fight Gandara and Aurora Glades.

it’s fun to fight you too, my ideal matchup would be MS and Gandara. I would maybe add in FSP, but MS and Gandara are more of a challenge

Johje Holan.4607:

It doesn’t matter what the odds are – hasn’t made a difference so far. SoS you know you’re going to be facing TC.

I’d put it at 99% chance of SoS and TC together. And if you’re not with TC it’ll be SoR just for laughs.

Oh and yeah, if you all ever get together and go to a casino, invite me. I want to play some roulette with you all.

Like I said, we should be only seeing them 1/2 the time at worst… and it’s been worse. The pendulum should swing back the other direction (if it’s truly random) and hopefully we’ll go to a true “every other week” pattern.
Of course they could do TC-JQ-FA like I’ve been hoping and unseat JQ; which will cause them to implode and scatter.
From then on we only have to worry about DB, and DB has a glass jaw in NA prime and our Oceanics will have a nice small gap to run the town until SEA and NNK gets on.

Johje: “Hey SoS, what are you betting on?”

SoS: “we got a good feeling about black!”

Johje: "Everything on RED!

That’s a common misconception about randomness. If it’s truly random, results of the past will have no influence on future outcomes. So if there’s a 50% chance of getting a matchup with X, even if you just had 100 matchups with X, there is still a 50/50 chance of getting them again. Getting an ‘every other week’ pattern is actually a good indicator that there’s an error in the random number generator. A pretty huge error actually, if their random number generators were like that it would cause huge security risks.

Chris.3290:

The pendulum should swing back the other direction (if it’s truly random) and hopefully we’ll go to a true “every other week” pattern.

most likely CD will get TC….

I’m from Blackgate and I —- along with A LOT of people on my server —- would love to see SoR and a random. Or two randoms because it gets really really boring to see the same two teams each week.

Our server has improved this past month and we’ve taken the #1 spot three times in the last five weeks against SoR, so we know we can beat them with our new approach. But it’s still pretty boring always facing the same two teams. Even one random would freshen up matches in NA T1.

I know a lot of people would like to see a JQ/TC/DB matchup and I think it be great for them all, especially JQ since they mostly end up in 3rd place against us and SoR due to the size of their coverage.

JQ is a good fighting server. They deserve a chance to win for a week. And everyone on T1 deserves something new once in awhile.

I’m from SFR

Baruch Bay
Desolation

Or

Vizunah Square
Piken Square

I’m convinced this week we ar going to get BB or VS.

Estimated probabilities for the next matchup (July 26).

-ken

Hmmm, SBI actually has a chance to face every server…

Bring it on BG!

fron the points im guessing next week

BG – JQ – TC or BG – JQ – MAG

Aurust.8961:

CHIPS.6018:

JQ/TC/DB. I really want to see who deserve that 3rd seat in tier 1.

TC and DB will be destroyed….. did you guys not learn what it means to fight a tier 1 server? That was SOR going kiddie gloves on TC because it was a joke of a match… im sure JQ will fight at full strength….

TC is a very strong tier 2 server, no where even close to a tier 1 server.

TC likes to think of itself as a “tier 1.5” server when in reality its “tier 1.8”.

Looking at how well TC and FA did vs JQ, I’d say they aren’t tier 1.8

FA is tier 2, but I think you over estimated JQ’s overall strength vs TC.

This coming week I’d like our classic match of TC-FA-DB

Or FA-SOR-BG

Wishes for EU T1-T3:
Vizu – SFR – Piken
Elona – BB – Deso
RS – Kodash – Abaddon

Actinotus.6410:

Chris.3290:

SoS, Mag, CD – and I’d have to leave the forums for the week LOL

Agree next week for SoS I want any combination of Mag CD and Ebay.

Nah, SoS needs to fight TC. I can’t remember the last time SoS faced off against TC, it seems like so long ago. It just doesn’t happen often enough.

Aurust.8961:

CHIPS.6018:

JQ/TC/DB. I really want to see who deserve that 3rd seat in tier 1.

TC and DB will be destroyed….. did you guys not learn what it means to fight a tier 1 server? That was SOR going kiddie gloves on TC because it was a joke of a match… im sure JQ will fight at full strength….

TC is a very strong tier 2 server, no where even close to a tier 1 server.

TC likes to think of itself as a “tier 1.5” server when in reality its “tier 1.8”.

What a difference three weeks makes. JQ is barely scraping in with a win over TC this week.

tradition is the most important part of our life

1. Aurora Glade – 1 server from Germany – 2nd server from Germany
2. Visunah – Desolation – X
3. Elona Reach – SFR – x
4. Blactide – Fissure of Woe – Vabbi

:)

@genowefapigwa: Sorry, I like the new system for variation, not for traditionally boring repetitions

Just 2 servers left for the full set, so Viz and Blacktide please(not gonna happen but i can hope).

Maguuma

1. Tarnished Coast
2. Jade Quarry

No AM, no MS, no Kodash no Riverside. Well, no german server.

Prefer either AG, Piken, GH or FSP

Far shiverpeaks, Aurora Glade, would be awesome

Dayra.7405:

@genowefapigwa: Sorry, I like the new system for variation, not for traditionally boring repetitions

Dayra
it was joke

Dayra.7405:

Wishes for EU T1-T3:
Vizu – SFR – Piken
Elona – BB – Deso
RS – Kodash – Abaddon

yeah that would be awesome
just because of Kodash, we don’t need a third opponent then ^^

Snowreap.5174:

Estimated probabilities for the next matchup (July 26).

-ken

Thanks for doing this every week Snowreap, I know a lot of people really appreciate it.

Well I’d usually say MS, Gandara as they bring a variety of encounters. However with it being summer and a lot of folks having holidays etc, this week I’m not really fussed as long as they bring the fight.

Shiren.9532:

Actinotus.6410:

Chris.3290:

SoS, Mag, CD – and I’d have to leave the forums for the week LOL

Agree next week for SoS I want any combination of Mag CD and Ebay.

Nah, SoS needs to fight TC. I can’t remember the last time SoS faced off against TC, it seems like so long ago. It just doesn’t happen often enough.

Aurust.8961:

CHIPS.6018:

JQ/TC/DB. I really want to see who deserve that 3rd seat in tier 1.

TC and DB will be destroyed….. did you guys not learn what it means to fight a tier 1 server? That was SOR going kiddie gloves on TC because it was a joke of a match… im sure JQ will fight at full strength….

TC is a very strong tier 2 server, no where even close to a tier 1 server.

TC likes to think of itself as a “tier 1.5” server when in reality its “tier 1.8”.

What a difference three weeks makes. JQ is barely scraping in with a win over TC this week.

Is winning by 30k points “scraping” a win now?

TC was a fun refreshing fight though, so was FA. Very good to mix up the matches for health of the game imho.

Estimated probabilities for the next matchup (August 2).

-ken

I’d like to face against a server with a significant oceanic presence (no offence intended to our current opponents).

I’d like a go at FA and maybe one other below us, even IoJ (who I believe still have aussies on there).

Yaks and kaineng, my favorite opponents recently and most annoying opponents…perfect combination

Dear God of rng, Please let it be BG.

SoS and Ehmry Bay, my dream match. <3 SOS and Ehmry

Fuzzion.2504:

Dear God of rng, Please let it be BG.

RNG is a godless creature, it worships and obeys no one.

ET/FC/AR please please please.

Any rolls on the new matchup?

-BG

SoR and TC. JQ is only a tier 1 server when it is fighting in tier 2. Too many fairweathers.

I’d like to face real tier 1 servers like SOR and BG, as opposed to JQ which has some of the lowest skilled players in NA across all servers, and is just a tier 2 server with SEA coverage.

Either that or a classic match with TC and DB.

for SoS I’d like any combination of TC FA and Mag.

Furiousbeard.7602:

I’d like to face real tier 1 servers like SOR and BG, as opposed to JQ which has some of the lowest skilled players in NA across all servers, and is just a tier 2 server with SEA coverage.

Either that or a classic match with TC and DB.

JQ has always relied on their (very good) asian guilds – something we had to deal with when we were back in T1. DB is very similar. Frustrating for us oceanic people to play against as they sweep in as we are logging of and undo all our hard work.

Actinotus.6410:

Furiousbeard.7602:

I’d like to face real tier 1 servers like SOR and BG, as opposed to JQ which has some of the lowest skilled players in NA across all servers, and is just a tier 2 server with SEA coverage.

Either that or a classic match with TC and DB.

JQ has always relied on their (very good) asian guilds – something we had to deal with when we were back in T1. DB is very similar. Frustrating for us oceanic people to play against as they sweep in as we are logging of and undo all our hard work.

Off topic but something I’ve never understood. Why is there such a big distinction between Sea and Ocn. Isn’t there only like a 1 hour difference? 2 from some?

Why are Ocn logging off as Sea comes on? What do Ocn tend to play early and Sea late?

Furiousbeard.7602:

I’d like to face real tier 1 servers like SOR and BG, as opposed to JQ which has some of the lowest skilled players in NA across all servers, and is just a tier 2 server with SEA coverage.

Either that or a classic match with TC and DB.

Not sure why you hate our NA forces so much as I am playing at SEA timezone. But the tears pouring is so touching, cry moar. Much love from JQ SEA. P.S:Unlike you, I would still give much respect to FA SEA, having to deal with our forces without so much QQ.