Guild Wars 2

Hi everyone, I wanted to call attention to something I’ve noticed about SAB. I’ll explain below.

I have three accounts I’ve been playing for this event, two of them belong to family whom are unable to do the event due to it causing them to be nauseous & headached. My account personally has 10 characters, theirs have 5/6 respectively.

I do the chest events on every character every day, which amounts to 63 boss chests per day. I’ve been doing this since last Monday, which means I’ve opened about 378 chests in total. Of these chests, I have received 3 skins (1 greatsword, 2 shield), and I got all 3 of these on Monday (one per account). Since then, I have not had the fortune of finding even one new skin since. So out of 315 other boss chest opens, I have found 0 skins.

By Josh Foreman’s stats, I should have found somewhere in the ballpark of 6 additional skins. I realize that “1 in 50 chance” does not mean I’ll get one just because I open 50 chances. Statistically it’s possible that I’ll never get a skin drop, obviously since that’s how probability works. However, with them having failed implementations of boss chests in the past (dungeon chests and dragon chests accidentally configured to be affected by diminishing returns for loot), it raises the question to whether or not they might have accidentally done it yet again.

I consider myself insanely lucky that I was able to get 3 skin drops on 3 accounts the first full day of the event, but I’m completely confused as to whether that shivved my chances for the unforseeable future due to diminishing returns.

Just some food for thought, and possibly a request from Josh Foreman to make sure that it’s not happening this way…

Thanks for reading!
-LoreChief

I’ve opened enough chests to buy 4 skins. Got 0 skins from the chests themselves.
I don’t think there’s diminishing returns on the chests. There’s just people who are lucky and people who aren’t.

I’ve opened like 100-200 chests. Only got 1 skin to show for it.

I’ve gotten total of three skins, almost one per day. At first from Monday ‘till Thursday while I was just trying to get all the gear and achievements, which means pretty much 0-2 full runs per day. Now I’ve made couple of days of speed clears from level 1 – 3 with all of my alts.

Guys Josh said that the skin drop is Quote: “1 in 50”. This event was also to last 30 days. That’s plenty of time to farm chest.

I know it may be a bit tedious if the it was 15 days or something but log on Alts “Not make alts and destroy.”, and farm the chest per day like a daily.

The skins from the chest are not Account bound meaning that if Josh increased the drop rate on skins from chest the market on the TP would be flooded.

I know people are getting lucky but they are using the Alt and Delete method.

Just endure it because before you know it late May, world 2 will be done (Maybe) and the new skins along with it.

I’m just saying that the drop rate doesn’t feel like it’s actually 1/50. I only have my own anecdotal evidence to go off of really, but 375+ chests (as of today) is abysmally low. It seems like the 1/50 statistic is not correct, or not working as intended.

I’ve opened 200+ chests now with only one skin to show for it. This is not delete character farming either. Just farming with my 7 80s.

i’ve opened 24 chests and have gotten 3 skins so far (scepter, sword, greatsword). My wife has opened the same number as me and has gotten nothing.

1/50 is working as intended. Let me math you to show you why. You received 3 skins out of (using your numbers) 378 chests. That equates to 1 skin in 126 chests. If we check that, the likelihood of getting zero skins in 126 is 7.84%, a non-negligible chance. For me, personally, I’ve opened around 410 boxes and received only 2 skins, the skins all coming in the last day or so, and none of them from the early days of the event. Any DR you think exists is merely perceived and is not real; there is a statistically significant chance for people to be as unlucky as I am, and it’s clearly working as intended.