Guild Wars 2

Princess Doll Tonic: Got it on the 2nd try.

Plush Griffin Tonic:
57 failed tries.
171 tonics.
Took a break. Lucky #58…. D=

RNG

Princess – 2 tries
Soldier – First try
Ventari – 3 tries
Griffin – 5 tries
Golem – 11 tries >.>

I’d seriously rage at 57 fails if I was the guy above me. I plan on just keeping all 5, not wanting to risk forging 4 of them :P

Also, does anyone think they’ll add anything else to spend cogs on? Not really in the mood to hold onto 2 stacks until next year.

Wow I had no idea it was this rare. I got the Plush Griffon on my 3rd try, and then the Golem in another couple tries with my leftovers just because I knew I’d never want the mini. Sorry some of you have had much worse luck!

Griffon – got it in 6 tries
Toy Soldier – got it in 4 tries
Princess – nothing after 10 tries

Princess – 10 tries
Golem – 4 tries
Soldier- 6 tries
Griffon – 13 tries

Combined them into the forge and got an endless dolyak tonic. Sold it or 100g on the tp and just bought the endless toymaker for 53g which can also turn you into the dolyak. I have no idea why the endless dolyak tonic is so expensive when you can turn into one from the toymaker tonic , is it used for something else?

I was wondering which of the endless tonics can jump and do the emotes like normal players can. I know the toy soldier and the princess doll can and the toy ventari can’t. What about the griffon and toy golem? Thanks

livegorilla.4518:

I was wondering which of the endless tonics can jump and do the emotes like normal players can. I know the toy soldier and the princess doll can and the toy ventari can’t. What about the griffon and toy golem? Thanks

Griffon and toy golem can both jump, but nothing else.

Tamaki Revolution.3548:

I plan on just keeping all 5, not wanting to risk forging 4 of them :P

Funny story. I got bored and just tried to combine 4 of them. I am now the proud owner of 2 endless toy soldier tonics. Alas lol.

Tamaki Revolution.3548:

Funny story. I got bored and just tried to combine 4 of them. I am now the proud owner of 2 endless toy soldier tonics. Alas lol.

Hm… I wonder if you always get the one you didn’t put in.

If so, that could be used to have identical pet and endless tonic (i.e., use your soldier frame to make the pet, use your other 4 frames to make the other 4 tonics, combine the tonics to get the soldier tonic, et voilà, you can now be a toy soldier with a toy soldier pet).

If so, I can see a reason for it. But if you just get a random tonic (as some people have posted), it seems like either an oversight or a pretty sadistic recipe.

Sajuuk.5706:

The case is, however, we don’t know what the odds to get the endless are. We’re looking at a massive game population. Once you spread out the low possibility of getting nothing 20 times in a row over the game population, the likelihood of it occurring increases. Add on to the fact that you’re more likely to get people who have this poor luck posting on the forums to complain about it, and it shows that there’s really nothing remarkable going on here, other than a unsurprising and likely skewed section of the game population posting on the forums about the bad luck which is bound to occur when dealing with populations on this size. Think about it this way. Let’s say the odds of getting a toy are 1 in 10 (I have no clue what they actually are). The chance of getting nothing after 20 attempts is ~12%. For the people getting nothing after 30 attempts, it’s ~4%. If we’re generous and say that you have a 1/4 chance of getting the endless tonic, the odds of getting nothing after 20 tries are .3%, which, spread over a population of thousands upon thousands of players, is bound to happen.

You can go two ways:

• the people posting are people with few or many attempts regardless, it’s just the same people that post on these forums anyway
• only people with extremely good or bad luck are posting, thus there’s no middle field in this topic

since we do in fact get quite a lot of posts with similar numbers (5-10) and a few in the extreme ranges (1, 15+ etc) it doesn’t seem option 2 is likely. in fact, it looks more like the forumgoers are quite a good sample group.

and yes, of course the extremes happen – they are being posted, in the higher range maybe a bit more than in the lower. the forum probably will see a few more posts out of the extreme ranges (because people will think their number is sufficiently different to warrant posting, while people in the middlefield think they are the norm and won’t post).

the only thing I argue about, is that if you look at the number of runs, you’ll see an increase after the patch of day.. 2 it was?
and quite a big increase at that. now while it’s possible that something like that is random (or nobody with more tries posted at all), it’s just highly unlikely, especially considering the likelihood of ANet changing the droprates (which they’ve proven they will do without any announcement).

personally I don’t find the droprates too harsh. I might have gotten a bit of bad luck (with 3 : 39 runs – and I also bought my stuff when it was most expensive, which I accredit to bad luck in general) but the average number of tries is more in the range of 5-10 and that means a few gold tops per potion, which seems reasonable. the rate before the change was a bit too good, thus a change wasn’t uncalled for.

BUT: I don’t like stealth nerfs, and I don’t like RNG at all. they could’ve just made it take 50 of the LVL6 dust which would give it a more or less fixed price (disregarding the market ofc) instead of the random chance of the gift with the frame or the tonic. RNG is pretty much the only aspect of this game which really annoys me. and they put it everywhere. they don’t even seem to think anymore, instead of making something hard to obtain, they just use rng.

Wow I can’t believe some of the luck you guys are having.

I got my 4 endless tonics in 5 attempts – one of them took two attempts, the princess doll.

Maybe it’s being kind because of all the other terrible failures I’ve had in there?

22 tries last night for the toy soldier….nothing. Thank god the glittering dust is so cheap, and you can keep getting the stuffing and glue

I even spent a gold to get an extra 5 tries at it.

1g? Cute…i spent about 10-12g so far and still got not even 1 endless tonic…guess i should stop trying before i am broke -.-

But hey, at least i got enough griffon tonics for about 1 year i guess…

This is bullkitten. Over 60 tries on the new toy golem endless tonic and still nothing.

Especially when I got the rest of my tonics under 5 tries. Karma bites hard man.

DarkBurst.6820:

This is bullkitten. Over 60 tries on the new toy golem endless tonic and still nothing.

Especially when I got the rest of my tonics under 5 tries. Karma bites hard man.

Trust me, it’s much better as a mini pet.

I put endless doll, ventari, griffon, toy soldier tonics in mystic forge and I got ENDLESS GOLEM TONIC. How does that make sense? And how do I get my frames back so I can get other items please?

MobiuS.6394:

I got my princess doll tonic on the 25th attempt. I got my toy soldier on the 5th.

It gets expensive when the forge fails you…

And… after 45 failed attempts at Golem Tonic, I’m out of cash. It’s about 3 gold to buy the two stacks of materials on the TP to try 5 times.

The mystic forge is a jerk sometimes.

MobiuS.6394:

MobiuS.6394:

I got my princess doll tonic on the 25th attempt. I got my toy soldier on the 5th.

It gets expensive when the forge fails you…

And… after 45 failed attempts at Golem Tonic, I’m out of cash. It’s about 3 gold to buy the two stacks of materials on the TP to try 5 times.

The mystic forge is a jerk sometimes.

while you never know, I assume the prices for these mats will come down a bit in the future.. so before you go completely broke, wait a few days and watch the prices closely ( for example here: http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/38301 )
if you see a trend downwards, wait – if its rising, you might want to buy while its still low..

Wow what can i say am so sad …… Saved so hard got all 4 tonics Golem,Doll,Griffon,Ventari And got this. Lol why o why do i play this game.

Thanks anet.

Additional frames are purchasable via the vendor in LA for 250 sweaters each. Thus people can buy as many additional chances to make the Endless Tonic as they wish to. This should help to stabilize (and possibly lower) the price of the Toymaker’s and Dolak tonics. It’s a double RNG setup, but at least it’s repeatable.

Assuming an average 1 in 6 chance of making a toy tonic and an average 1 in 3 chance of making Toymaker’s, it will cost around 60g (at current prices) to create. Good luck.

Wanted the endless golem tonic, used all my wads/glue then had to buy more and more. Still no endless tonic, all my gold wasted.. but I guess I have enough single use tonics to last the freakin’ year. Very disappointed at this part of the event.

Edit: 8 more gold later I finally got my endless golem tonic, happy to finally get it. Still disappointed at the terrible RNG for it though.

Yes, I’m really sad and disappointed that all my endless tonics I forged in the mystic forge became something I could get the other day…

Really? Can I write a ticket or something to get my 4 Endless tonics back?

Wow, a 300+ post thread and people are still putting 4 tonics into the forge? Are you guys serious?

For people with bad luck count me in. 40 tries and 1 tonic. I am now out of gold = (

I see I am not alone with the bad luck at getting an endless tonic. I seriously think my princess doll frame is broken. I have about 78 princess tonic to show for my trouble. So i was thinking since we get 3 tonics for a failed recipe why not allow us to trade those tonics in for an endless one. Like 30 non-endless tonics for one endless tonic. It would be nice to know that all that gold was going to something right? its just an idea.

I tried three times, with three frames, and got nothing. I know a trend when I see one, and I don’t need the tonics that badly. Thank you, but no thank you.

I’ll save my gold.

20 tries – no tonic for me…

Well, if we can buy frames I’m going to say forget the dolyak and just get one of each endless tonic.

I just went through the last of my gold attempting to make one of the endless tonics, and have nothing but the worthless single-use tonics.

Every time the recipe failed, I felt myself becoming increasingly depressed. It was like the happiness was being physically pulled out of me. I walked up to the forge with a smile on my face. I walked away ready to cry. When I ran out of materials and gold… I just didn’t want to play anymore.

I’ve been severely penalize for nothing more than being unlucky. When ArenaNet designed these systems, they did so in order to ensure the rarity of items. What they never considered was the effect it would have on individuals. Some people spent real money on these things. If you buy a booster pack for MTG, you’re guaranteed a certain number of commons, uncommons, and rares. If you buy the equivalent of a booster pack in GW2, you might get a mythic rare, or you might get nothing but worthless lands.

For items that are tradable, I can understand (but strongly disagree with) this decision, but the endless tonics are account bound. Why is it done this way? Why? The chance seems high enough that most people will get the items and thus the items won’t be rare, yet low enough that some people will lose everything and gain nothing. Why? Why randomly shut out players?

This is the first time I’ve been depressed because of this game. Come to think of it, I can’t remember the last time I felt this way because of any game.

20g spent, got toy soldier on 2nd try, then i spent rest of time/money on golem tonic, no endless. F you zomorros, F you

It’s not the Mystic Forge, it’s the Mystic Toilet. You flush all your money down it and get nothing,. 31 tries to get the Princess tonic and gave up. I didn’t like the Mystic Toilet before and now I REALLY don’t. It’s not worth it. What is the point of making the game unfun?

Endless griffon plush tonic – 19 tries.

I spent a load of gold on this, so I doubt I’ll try for the others. Don’t get me wrong; I’m happy that I finally got the griffon one, but I don’t want to blow my entire bank on attempting another one.

So I agree. I got all tonics in a reasonable amount of time and gold, but to allow them to be destroyed in the mystic forge to get the endless toymaker tonic is just cruel and stupid. Why would i want an endless tonic that i all ready have. Is this a bug? Why wont the devs answer this? We know they read this so why not say weather this was intentional. Honestly, they are missing the mark on some things when it comes to holidays.

I am encouraged by the fact that they seem to get better every holiday, but I am never buying another holiday chest after getting bugged this last time and only receiving non holiday chests as compensation.

Thank you arrownin.3128

I got my 3 endless tonics on the second, fifth, and second attempts (also making me think “stealth nerf” comments are unfounded). I really appreciate you passing on the info by starting this thread. Cheers, and thanks again!

golem took me 45 attempts. sounds like a stealth nerf to me. in addition, we have no word from anet about the issue. for all the others i had an average of 1/6 as posted before. we probably wont have an official word about this since this game has the worst customer support ever, but I strongly believe they drastically changed the drop rate (now it is more like a drop hate).

Karsusk.5247:

Why wont the devs answer this? We know they read this so why not say weather this was intentional. Honestly, they are missing the mark on some things when it comes to holidays.

Because, my friend, they dont give a kitten about you. Or me. Or anyone else other than the bank manager. They seem to have 80% of the staff focused on deleting posts (which will probably happen to this one since it is not saying “oh guys you are wonderful!!!1!!”), 15% focused on kitten people off and 5% doing nice stuff. That is what I call NCsoft effect.

My update on how many tried it took me to get my tonics:
Princess Tonic: 6 tries
Golem tonic: 3 tries
The almost a Little pony tonic: 2 tries

I think my luck had something to do in that I waited a bit before I made them. As in Im not sure how exactly diminishing returns work so I took no chances for the second two I made and did them as the first thing I logged on before I started playing.

25% chance they said.

It’s a relatively high chance they said.

I failed 15 times in a row on Princess and just bought myself the Endless Toymaker tonic instead. kitten you Zom

Sokina.8041:

25% chance they said.

It’s a relatively high chance they said.

I failed 15 times in a row on Princess and just bought myself the Endless Toymaker tonic instead. kitten you Zom

That sucks but that’s what RNG is. 25% chance doesnt mean that you will get 1 of them in 4 tries. It means that you have a 75% chance of failing every time.

I must be pretty lucky just when i think i wont get my tonic it drops on my last attempts this happend 2 times already so far i got 4 of em doll. golem, griphon and the verani 2 of em i got in just 2 tries the others was about 9 or so on the one and about 5 on the other if i remember correctly

Griffin – Got in 3 tries
Princess – Got in 2 tries
Going to try for others but not today

Going for my second set of the 4 I used :P

Princess – 5 tries
Griffon – 2 tries
Golem – 11 tries
Ventari – 33 tries then ran out of gold

I really mean it when I say I’m not going to forge 4 of them again. Probably.

I’m glad they added frames to the vendor though. I only want all 5 again out of principle >.>

This so sucks =/ People getting the tonics so early in this topic..

Im on 159 tonics now, none endless. >.<

EDIT: 67 tries total.. FINALLY got my endless griffon tonic.

arrownin.3128:

Sokina.8041:

25% chance they said.

It’s a relatively high chance they said.

I failed 15 times in a row on Princess and just bought myself the Endless Toymaker tonic instead. kitten you Zom

That sucks but that’s what RNG is. 25% chance doesnt mean that you will get 1 of them in 4 tries. It means that you have a 75% chance of failing every time.

Care to try and find what chances you have to fail something with stated 25% success 67 times in a row?.. its either poorly coded RNG or players are just that unlucky. I got my 1st(!) endless tonic on 25th try, chances of that happening are roughly 100*0.75^24 = 0.1%.

Anyway, lolis aquired – mission acomplished.

I managed to get 3 of the tonics after spending 16g (all my savings) on glue and stuffings to get them.

I just tried 5 times for the Princess, but ran out of glue. Looking at this topic, I don’t think I’m going to waste any more money on this…

Got the golem on my 15th try. It was the only one I wanted, and I really wanted it, but that was about 9-10 gold in materials.

Just used all my gold and nothing….
Heard many 4 tries, 3 tries. 2 tries. 9 tries. But geeze, I don’t get under 20 tries.

“Princess – 5 tries
Griffon – 2 tries
Golem – 11 tries
Ventari – 33 tries then ran out of gold”

I tried the Ventari, I think I will not bother with that. It might be bugged….

24 tries to get my toy soldier tonic.

I would have preferred a fixed 8g price over a RNG any day.
It would cost the same on average, but wouldn’t make me feel so bad.