Guild Wars 2

Hey everyone, so a few members of my guild decided to try for the endless tonics. I really wanted the princess, golem, and gryphon tonics. I already used my golem frame on my mini, so I bought the frame off of the vendor. Putting the frames on the vendors for people who could not participate was a good idea, lets everyone give it a try.

Then we went to crafting, I had 20 gold to try for these tonics and I heard that there was about a 1/4 chance. This means i could get at least a few tonics with my frames. I would spend all my gold but I did not really care. After about 20 minutes of “oh cool I got mine!” and “dang gotta try again” I was left with 2 tonics. I then asked my guild how they did. One got 4 tonics for 8g total and another spent a total of 3g on the parts for 4 tonics. He decided to try for the toymakers tonic and got it. Good for him and I hope he enjoys his tonic.

Before this looks like a whining thread, let me make my point related to this story. Variance can make things really frustrating. The tonics we were trying to make were made from the leftovers of the holiday event so we knew they were going to be expensive. What I do not understand is why chance was introduced into making these tonics. They are account bound and therefore untradable. We already know they will be hard to get since they are using a finite material from holidays. I mean, AN could have just not put them in and just had the toymaker tonics come from gifts and that would be fine.

What I would have done (and this is only my opinion and it may be the wrong way to do it) is made the endless tonics guaranteed from the tonic recipe and put the variance into the endless toymaker’s tonic recipe only. This would let players who did the event make something to show for it if they do not want minis, and it lets players who want to risk their investment try for the money. AN I really do not like how you designed the tonics, it makes players feel really really bad when they want something that looks in reach and they end up being no where close. I do not care that it costs a lot for an item if I know that I will get something. This reward system was poorly implemented because it corners people into a single choice without risk.

Attached is a screen that shows just how many times I tried, it is 3 tonics per failed attempt.

TLDR, variance on rewards makes players feel really bad when they are unsuccessful.

Edit: grammar

I agree,

Spent 500+ of the glue/stuffing – about 10+ tries. and nothing!

I was hoping to get at least 1 endless tonic after 10 tries but noooooooooo….

can we still get stuffing and glue from the repeatable events? if not then i gotta spend gold to get it via TP, thats just crazy…. i dont have that kind of gold to be spending on this over and over again!!

Yea this variance/RNG/chance thing is starting to be a real problem/issue….. is it really a big deal to have 500+ players or more running around with these tonics?

I don’t mind variance as long as it is in the right places. In this case I do not feel it is appropriate.

Glad that the frames are now buyable with 250 ugly wool whatevers, but sad about having to use the Mystic Toilet. Spent several gold trying to get the Princess Tonic. Never got it and had to stop. I got 2 other tonics previously. One with the first try and one after 18 tries. Success rate is really variable. Not sure why ANet is so enamored by random chance crafting. I guess they think it’s fun and rewarding. It’s not, it’s frustrating. It’s the reason why I probably won’t try for a legendary weapon. I don’t care for the Mystic Toilet.

They nerfed the drop rate which doesn’t help, I was trying for the Princess Tonic too, and I’m seriously thinking if its even worth ‘gambling’ 20+g on something, and still your not gaureented at it. I think, if I was to spend 10g+ on something that has little impact on the game and don’t get it, I would probably ragequit like many others have done.

!!! I just go it, on the off-chance I’d try one last time ~ There is a god afterall!!

TL;DR: Make RNG-items a certain cost equal to the average cost via RNG, so that players can work toward those items within the context of the game they enjoy playing and without the dissatisfaction that usually comes with gambling.

There are certain places where RNG is great. For instance, I don’t mind if something requires farming the same dungeon, or drops so rarely that you would only hope to see it after playing for a year or more on average. I know some people hate this kind of RNG as well, but at least you can work toward something else at the same time.

So far, I don’t think anyone has actually proclaimed, “the RNG is one of the things I like about GW2.” Given the current achievement-based nature of games today, it’s fair to say a lot of people are in the mindset of trying for every mini, title, etc. This doesn’t mean you have to make it easy on them, whereby the achievements become meaningless, but if the drop rate (via event box, mystic forge or whatever) is 1 in 10, for example, then I’d be much happier simply paying 10x more or using up 10x more game resources to achieve it. The end result might still be the same if you look at resources spent by the player-base as a whole, but the big difference is you replace the inherent dissatisfaction that comes with gambling (and losing) with the satisfaction of working toward something within the context of the game you presumably enjoy playing.

I don’t know how much I’ve spent on skins for LoL (it’s safe to say it’s over $100, and I don’t even like the game that much!), but it’s a lot more than the first and last $10 I will ever spend on GW2’s mystery event boxes. Maybe this is purely anecdotal and the current system is the most profitable approach, but I doubt it. Maybe in a booming economy where people don’t care about their wallets, but I’m pretty sure most people are pretty wallet conscious these days and would appreciate being able to plan ahead. Again, make everything however much you’d normally bring in via RNG, and see if you don’t make even more money by converting all the people who have been boycotting the current system.

If RNG isn’t going away, there might be a pretty easy fix right under ANet’s nose. Much of the dissatisfaction comes with spending $10/10 gold with no guarantee that you won’t end up with random items that you can simply buy off the TP for a combined 10 silver. Make the mystery box/mystic forge “you lose” common drops account-bound so they can’t be sold! Yes, this may seem backward, because it’d be better to give people the option to sell something they don’t want, right? At the same time, it’s because the stupid one-time use tonics and festive mortars can be had for 10 copper (bought off all the dissatisfied victims of RNG) that people are dissatisfied. If I don’t get the thing I want, at least I can take solace that I have a ton of “fun” items for use in guild dungeon runs that can’t be acquired any other way.

put all my gold and mats into tonics. got about 20 of each before i realized the epic fail rate and went for endless griffon alone.. so now I’m broke, sitting on a bunch of frames, and am not putting another 3 gold into a few more attempts. The random chance was barely minimal. Just another way for us to be screwed by RNG.

Took me 17 tries, about half the gold I had saved up

I actually don’t wish so much that it wasn’t random, I wish that I had something to do with the frames and cogs and ESPECIALLY the kittenload of temporary Griffin tonics I now have as a result of trying to craft this. I mean seriously? What COMPLETE IDIOT thought it was a good idea to tease players with three temporary tonics upon failure of crafting the permanent tonic? Upon success, you no longer need them! It’s as if this was done intentionally to make you feel despair while failing to craft it, and mocked upon succeeding!

And with the cogs, I don’t intend to craft a mini, I don’t care about minis, I haven’t cared about minis in any game I’ve ever played, I just wanted the transformation tonic and I would like something to do with these cogs so collecting them doesn’t feel like it was a complete waste. I mean seriously, some players LOVE these minis and have tried desperately to get them, and I’m just supposed to tell them ‘sucks for you’ as I destroy the mats to craft them?

They didn’t nerf anything. I just made 2 tonics with 5 tries.

Unfortunately I gambled all my tonics and got a useless accountbound back. Yay for RNG.

I don’t mind the fail-chance for the endless tonics, but do think if you threw four into mystic forge it should’ve guaranteed the toymaker tonic. Feel really bad for the people who got the 5th :/

Charming Rogue.8071:

They didn’t nerf anything. I just made 2 tonics with 5 tries.

Unfortunately I gambled all my tonics and got a useless accountbound back. Yay for RNG.

Consider yourself lucky. One look at the inflation in the price of Magic Glue and Stuffing suggests the overall chance of success as much lower than what you experienced.

Serenity.6149:

Charming Rogue.8071:

They didn’t nerf anything. I just made 2 tonics with 5 tries.

Unfortunately I gambled all my tonics and got a useless accountbound back. Yay for RNG.

Consider yourself lucky. One look at the inflation in the price of Magic Glue and Stuffing suggests the overall chance of success as much lower than what you experienced.

No, not really. While I admit 2 tonics with 5 tries is quite rare, the reason why the mats are so high priced is because;

1. More people are finding out about the endless tonics = more demand
2. More people are finished the dungeons and cant get any more glue or stuffing from them = less supply

I agree that this sort of thing is unneeded, 10+ gold on mats to try for endless tonics, 4 frames wasted instead of making minis to get 1 endless ventari tonic…people who support RNG like this or the Mystery Boxes clearly are missing the whole concept of the collector’s spirit which have always been prominent in Guild Wars.

I realize people will say that ‘it was rng and i took the risk because i wanted’.

But the thing is, the people who got the short end of the stick didnt really want this, but more or less got pushed to this as there werent many other options, and this being one of said options, can only be summed up as a pretty bad and useless one.

Jrunyon.3012:

Serenity.6149:

Charming Rogue.8071:

They didn’t nerf anything. I just made 2 tonics with 5 tries.

Unfortunately I gambled all my tonics and got a useless accountbound back. Yay for RNG.

Consider yourself lucky. One look at the inflation in the price of Magic Glue and Stuffing suggests the overall chance of success as much lower than what you experienced.

No, not really. While I admit 2 tonics with 5 tries is quite rare, the reason why the mats are so high priced is because;

1. More people are finding out about the endless tonics = more demand
2. More people are finished the dungeons and cant get any more glue or stuffing from them = less supply

Yes, it’s elementary that the price would go up. I’m not talking about the directionality of the shift, but its magnitude. If you assume that 1) every player gets 1250 total of a combination of glue/stuffing from doing the five runs, and 2) not everyone cares about getting the full 5 tonics + 2 pets, the current demand graph is much higher than it would be if the success rate was about 1 in 2 or 1 in 3. The first several hours people learned about the tonics, failure was the exception whereas now it seems to be the rule.

BTW, just a note, “less supply” is incorrect if you look at the supply chart. Supply is up, so your point #2 is irrelevant right now.

Serenity.6149:

Jrunyon.3012:

Serenity.6149:

Charming Rogue.8071:

They didn’t nerf anything. I just made 2 tonics with 5 tries.

Unfortunately I gambled all my tonics and got a useless accountbound back. Yay for RNG.

Consider yourself lucky. One look at the inflation in the price of Magic Glue and Stuffing suggests the overall chance of success as much lower than what you experienced.

No, not really. While I admit 2 tonics with 5 tries is quite rare, the reason why the mats are so high priced is because;

1. More people are finding out about the endless tonics = more demand
2. More people are finished the dungeons and cant get any more glue or stuffing from them = less supply

Yes, it’s elementary that the price would go up. I’m not talking about the directionality of the shift, but its magnitude. If you assume that 1) every player gets 1250 total of a combination of glue/stuffing from doing the five runs, and 2) not everyone cares about getting the full 5 tonics + 2 pets, the current demand graph is much higher than it would be if the success rate was about 1 in 2 or 1 in 3. The first several hours people learned about the tonics, failure was the exception whereas now it seems to be the rule.

BTW, just a note, “less supply” is incorrect if you look at the supply chart. Supply is up, so your point #2 is irrelevant right now.

Yes, I would agree with you. Furthermore, it’s due to the low rate of success that the price of the regular tonics is bottoming out. Do the math…

Once you have your endless tonic, any temporary tonics you have are now essentially worthless. Say it takes 20 tries for someone to get the endless version, that means the following:

20×50=1000 glue
20×50=1000 stuffing
19×3=57 temporary tonics (19 because the 20th is your endless)

So, you need 1000 each of stuffing and glue, and end up selling your remaining 57 tonics because you don’t need them anymore. Since anyone else who gets an endless tonic version doesn’t need the temp tonics either, there’s less demand than there is for the stuffing and glue.

The current prices in the TP are 62 copper for the glue and 61 for the stuffing. Which means to get enough supplies for 20 tries it will cost 12.3 gold. The most expensive temp tonic is the Toy Griffon Tonic at 31 copper. This means that for 12.3 gold you could buy about 3,967 temporary tonics. This is broken economics at work….

TL;DR – Sell your leftover stuffing/glue for about 75 silver (assuming a low sell price of 30 copper) and buy yourself at least 241 of the tonic you’re after (that’s assuming you’re after the Griffon, which is the most expensive). This is more than you’re probably going to ever use.

BTW, a similar thing applies to the skins. I have 61 Ugly Sweaters that I can sell for 31 copper a piece, for a total of about 18.9 silver. Based on current prices for the skins, you could probably get one of each for about 24 silver total…and it’s only that high because the Princess Wand itself is 10 silver. So you can buy pretty much every skin for that price, even though it’s not even enough sweaters to buy a single skin from the vendor.

If the endless tonic drop rate was really nerfed, I am really disappointed, this could have made a lot more people happy than frustrated.

RNG at work, the rate is not nerfed.
I got three tonics in five tries.
Given I also opened over 12,000 boxes straight with nothing but more wool junk, I guess that’s where my luck went.

The limited supply stuffing/glue doesn’t have a large steady flow through the boxes, since most people are done with dungeons, it’ll only go up as more people try for tonics until they get fed up.

I mentioned this in the other thread, but:
2 tries for princess
58 tries for griffon

Account bound, understandable. Guildies with multiple tonics in a few tries, sounds guaranteed. 20 tries later and nothing… It’s a terrible feeling when i realized how much gold i lost trying to get something account bound that others got for almost nothing. I’m not gonna rant about it, but OP is right, this feeling sucks. I could have just bought an endless supply of tonics for a fraction of the price.

Yeah…

I was going to get the Ventari/Plushie mini, and then craft myself all the endless tonics.

After wasting 5+ gold on 30 attempts to even get a single endless Griffon tonic, I’ve decided it’s definitely not worth wasting gold on any more attempts.

Shame.

28 Gold down the drain……. 48 Griffon Tonics thats 19 attempts!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ANET WTF

I actually like the RNG factor for the endless tonics.

It made me appreciate the endless tonics better.

I feel like those endless tonics are treasures in my inventory.

Imagine if those can be easily acquired. It’ll be treated like junk items.

As long as it’s doable (unlike precursors) and fun, I don’t mind it being RNG.

They should do this for every special events.

In fact, the endless tonics are the only ones that I play for in this festival.

34 tries to get griffon endless tonic
12 tries to get toy soldier without success…
8 tries to get princess doll without success…

more than 2700 Stuffing & 2700 glue…

19 attempts for griffon tonic…. 5 attempts for all others… Failure rate is too high
No Mats, no money for mats since spending on wasted mats, prices through the roof, and now this lovely gift of more Cogs when we were told as a comunity that none more were coming. Anet has seriously dropped the ball over and over and over on this event.

10 attempts to get doll endless without success …..

It wouldn’t be that bad if the stuffing/glue was available at a more reliable rate.