Unbreakable Bells found about 1 / 20,000

Unbreakable Bells found about 1 / 20,000

in Wintersday

Posted by: Frank.7452

Frank.7452

A player shared on reddit their experience from opening 160,000 presents (approx market value: 1600g).

They found 8 unbreakable bells and 6 toymaker tonics.

http://www.reddit.com/r/Guildwars2/comments/15c83m/i_opened_160000_giant_wintersday_gifts/

If you find 1 present a minute (slightly faster than the jumping puzzle), you will on average find an unbreakable bell every 333 hours.

That’s 14 solid days of gameplay if you never sleep or eat — or 41 days if you play at that level of productivity for 8 hours a day (I imagine you’d have to put in some overtime if you missed your present quota). Unfortunately, you don’t have 41 days to look for this.

Is it appropriate to have a vanity holiday item that rare? I can understand that level of rarity for something that is a core part of the game, but why do that to a vanity item that can only be found for about two weeks out of the year?

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Posted by: Toast.6459

Toast.6459

I don’t think it is, but thats just my opinion. Been vying for a crafting recipe for it (see: Unbreakable Bell Forge/crafting possible), but I’m not getting my hopes up at this point.

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Posted by: Quarktastic.1027

Quarktastic.1027

This kind of thing is right in line with GW1’s miniature polar bear.

http://wiki.guildwars.com/wiki/Miniature_Polar_Bear estimates the drop rate of a polar bear mini at 0.02%.

Those armadillos would be a lot cooler if they looked more like real armadillos. mmm armadillos
-BnooMaGoo.5690

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Posted by: Toast.6459

Toast.6459

This kind of thing is right in line with GW1’s miniature polar bear.

http://wiki.guildwars.com estimates the drop rate of a polar bear mini at 0.02%.

Except trying for the polar bear was fun. Spam clicking 20,000 times (probably be lucky to get one in even that) is not. I would call that carpal tunnel syndrome…and painful.

Unbreakable Bells found about 1 / 20,000

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Posted by: Lacechan.6524

Lacechan.6524

So that’s like… 0.005%? Talk about being lucky.

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Posted by: Toast.6459

Toast.6459

So that’s like… 0.005%? Talk about being lucky.

Yup, by that math it’s a 0.00005% chance to get one. While still better than the average odds of winning the lottery (0.00000007151124% chance), it’s still awful.

Unbreakable Bells found about 1 / 20,000

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Posted by: Doggie.3184

Doggie.3184

I opened over 800 and gave up. I’m just not one of the chosen ones, considering some opened only a few for it. I don’t wanna open 20,000. >.<

| Fort Aspenwood (NA): Sylvari Daredevil Thief Main: All Classes 80. |
Please Remove/Fix Thief Trait: “Last Refuge.”
“Hard to Catch” is a Horrible and Useless Trait. Fixed 6/23/15. Praise Dwayna.

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Posted by: Quarktastic.1027

Quarktastic.1027

This kind of thing is right in line with GW1’s miniature polar bear.

http://wiki.guildwars.com estimates the drop rate of a polar bear mini at 0.02%.

Except trying for the polar bear was fun. Spam clicking 20,000 times (probably be lucky to get one in even that) is not. I would call that carpal tunnel syndrome…and painful.

I don’t know if it’s the thousands of runs I’ve done, but running to the end of a long hallway and spamming snowballs at grentches for 5 minutes isn’t what I would call fun.

Those armadillos would be a lot cooler if they looked more like real armadillos. mmm armadillos
-BnooMaGoo.5690

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Posted by: Toast.6459

Toast.6459

This kind of thing is right in line with GW1’s miniature polar bear.

http://wiki.guildwars.com estimates the drop rate of a polar bear mini at 0.02%.

Except trying for the polar bear was fun. Spam clicking 20,000 times (probably be lucky to get one in even that) is not. I would call that carpal tunnel syndrome…and painful.

I don’t know if it’s the thousands of runs I’ve done, but running to the end of a long hallway and spamming snowballs at grentches for 5 minutes isn’t what I would call fun.

Understandable, but at least you could change that up, different characters, the two separate quests, etc. Spam clicking presents is spam clicking presents, no matter how you hash it out.

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Posted by: Ciri.8629

Ciri.8629

You dont need to open 1600 gifts. Jut buy that bell for 40 gold, problem solved..

Unbreakable Bells found about 1 / 20,000

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Posted by: Toast.6459

Toast.6459

You dont need to open 1600 gifts. Jut buy that bell for 40 gold, problem solved..

>implying 40g is a small amount of money

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Posted by: Writetyper.1985

Writetyper.1985

You dont need to open 1600 gifts. Jut buy that bell for 40 gold, problem solved..

>implying 40g is a small amount of money

Well, yeah, it is. You get about 4g from a full run of AC, more if you’re lucky. CoF is similar but faster. Playing the TP can get you this in a short time if you’re good. Precursors go for upwards of 300g, son.

Also, >using maymay arrows outside of 4chen xDDDD

Mortryde/Cold/Thugmentalist Bara
really bad engineer

Unbreakable Bells found about 1 / 20,000

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Posted by: Naoko.7096

Naoko.7096

1 out of 20,000? Seriously?
It must had been lucky for it to drop in 500+ boxes. O_o
I guess it’s really luck.

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Posted by: Toast.6459

Toast.6459

You dont need to open 1600 gifts. Jut buy that bell for 40 gold, problem solved..

>implying 40g is a small amount of money

Well, yeah, it is. You get about 4g from a full run of AC, more if you’re lucky. CoF is similar but faster. Playing the TP can get you this in a short time if you’re good. Precursors go for upwards of 300g, son.

Also, >using maymay arrows outside of 4chen xDDDD

Lol, “playing the TP” + “precursors”.
Easiest way to tell someone is lying: they put those two phrases in the same sentence.

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Posted by: Lacechan.6524

Lacechan.6524

Assuming the price doesn’t shoot up and the market doesn’t crash, that would be about a month or a month and a half of very casual gathering @ Lv80.

Or probably a week at Orr if you lived there.

I probably would have been able to afford it if I wasn’t buying the boxes to see what pops out. Although out of the 1000 I opened today I got lucky enough to break even from what dropped. That was pretty painful (in more ways than one) to open though so I’ll probably just stick to my daily gathering of 100~200. Mostly I want to see what would appear first (if at all), the bell or the tonic.

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Posted by: lyss.6175

lyss.6175

He can just wait 3 months, the bell and tonic should be way more expensive ( i saw the bell at 73g and it’s still possible to get it) it won’t surprise me to see those items at +120g in a few months, of course only if they don’t introduce an amazing guitar that will bring bell price down, ( it’s always a posibility ;p). He should be able recover most of the investment and in the best case make a profit.

Those who really want the bell should buy it from the TP because gambling 25g isn’t an option, at least not for me, can’t imagine that feeling when opening the last gift and didn’t get the bell… ugh…

I decided to buy it from the TP and i had like 20s at the moment…i really wanted it so i just converted all my cores into lodestones and sold them (just 4 lol), sold all my ectos (just 30) a bunch of cheap exotics that i had from the karka chest, and some more exotics and rares that i forged out of the dungeon tokens armors, also made 2 paths of 3 different dungeons everyday for 3 days and tadaa!! one morning got lucky and when i was reaching 42g someone posted the bell at 40g so i bought it and been playing cheesy songs everyday i didn’t had idea that i could do that amount of money in such a short period.

Now i’m getting another bell just to sell it months later, hopefully Anet will not give everyone a bell because that would be a bell spam hell. They should give the bell as a prize for max score in the choir bell game, that way the people who get it will be skilled and not just lucky or rich.

(edited by lyss.6175)

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Posted by: Gaudrath.6725

Gaudrath.6725

My advice would be to leave the bell alone. I imagine down the line we will actually get playable instruments like in LotRO, the concept obviously works. Then the bell will be neither unique and probably not even that good sounding.

And totally agree that bells should have been awarded only to players who score max points on the choir and make them soulbound on acquire.

Uthgar Stormbringer, elementalist
Sigurd Greymane, guardian
~ Piken

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Posted by: Writetyper.1985

Writetyper.1985

You dont need to open 1600 gifts. Jut buy that bell for 40 gold, problem solved..

>implying 40g is a small amount of money

Well, yeah, it is. You get about 4g from a full run of AC, more if you’re lucky. CoF is similar but faster. Playing the TP can get you this in a short time if you’re good. Precursors go for upwards of 300g, son.

Also, >using maymay arrows outside of 4chen xDDDD

Lol, “playing the TP” + “precursors”.
Easiest way to tell someone is lying: they put those two phrases in the same sentence.

Following the epick maymay arrows theme:

>lying

I never made a statement that was a matter of debate. How can I lie? It’s like one person saying “I enjoy this cake!” and you coming along and saying “YOU SAID CAKE! LIAR! I KNOW YOU’RE LYING BECAUSE YOU SAID CAKE!”. That’s a hue. That’s definitely a hue.

Mortryde/Cold/Thugmentalist Bara
really bad engineer

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Posted by: Mezza.6358

Mezza.6358

dont agree, people have invested fair bit of money in those, making it craftable would destroy those investments.

play the game>save gold>buy it

why ppl whine when they cant get something, or it requires too much work for them?

i would like a legendary, but i do accept that im not gonna get one, or not in the near future at least, but you dont see me making threads whining to reduce the grind on them….

devs leave the bells as they are please.

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Posted by: Toast.6459

Toast.6459

Because a bell shouldn’t be as hard (read: annoying) to get as a legendary, and with the awful chance of getting one (scroll up, around 0.00005%), it isn’t rare or exclusive, it’s just annoying. Mystic Forge recipe, challenging, but not a royal pain in the butt, gives account bound bell, problem solved.

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Posted by: sasoriza.5967

sasoriza.5967

I just hope ANet ignores this constant surge of posts where people complain about how hard it is to get stuff that is supposed to be hard to get.

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Posted by: Aegael.6938

Aegael.6938

Except that a legendary costs ~2400g on the trading post while a bell costs 40g.

No need to play the lottery when others have already done it for you.

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Posted by: Panda Shepard.1248

Panda Shepard.1248

I would say just leave the whole mess alone. I won’t support those RNG boxes in any way. I won’t support people selling things from them either. Hopefully people will quit buying them. It’s the only way Anet will stop selling them.

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Posted by: Exterminans.9723

Exterminans.9723

1:20,000 is just 0.005%, not 0.00005%.

And there are even some people who got BOTH exotic legendary tonics AND the bell. Even though the chances to receive one are even worse than with the rare items in GW1.

Btw.: It’s only thanks to bots that there ARE so many bells and tonics in play. If we didn’t have a massive botting problem, the number of giant gifts in game would be significant lower and the price on the TP wouldn’t be 60c for a gift, but rather around 3-4s which would also result in 200-300g for the bell instead of mere 50g.

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Posted by: Glektor.2934

Glektor.2934

Btw.: It’s only thanks to bots that there ARE so many bells and tonics in play. If we didn’t have a massive botting problem, the number of giant gifts in game would be significant lower and the price on the TP wouldn’t be 60c for a gift, but rather around 3-4s which would also result in 200-300g for the bell instead of mere 50g.

Those loveable bots. They are just so heroic, risking everything to help out the poor folks. They are like modern-day Robin Hoods

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Posted by: Car.3805

Car.3805

Don’t know, friend and I got 5 bells and 1 endless tonic in about 20,000 gifts. The medium gifts were the best bet, at around 50-60c each (and yes, they were that price back then too). With the sell price of snowflakes, ugly wool items, and weapon skins, it was actually a small PROFIT to open the gifts and an even bigger profit to sell the bells.

(edited by Car.3805)

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Posted by: Hermes.7014

Hermes.7014

My friend dropped it from his fifth gift box…

Whether something is either wrong or right, someone will always complain about it.

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Posted by: Jairlyn.1429

Jairlyn.1429

Wait 1 guy opened up 160,000 presents?
@ 50 copper….. 800 gold?

Jairlyn: Guardian- Yak’s Bend

(edited by Jairlyn.1429)

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Posted by: Frank.7452

Frank.7452

Wait 1 guy opened up 160,000 presents?
@ 50 copper….. 800 gold?

The buy/sell spread was for 90c – 1s20c prior to this being posted, and has since fallen significantly, so I imagine he was a large part of the demand that drove it up so high.

So yes, 160,000 presents at 1s, or 1600g. I don’t think he could have purchased so many at the 50c price.

Unbreakable Bells found about 1 / 20,000

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Posted by: raxx.8914

raxx.8914

The game dev posted all present sizes small to giant have equal chance of dropping the exotics.

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Posted by: Writetyper.1985

Writetyper.1985

Wait 1 guy opened up 160,000 presents?
@ 50 copper….. 800 gold?

The buy/sell spread was for 90c – 1s20c prior to this being posted, and has since fallen significantly, so I imagine he was a large part of the demand that drove it up so high.

So yes, 160,000 presents at 1s, or 1600g. I don’t think he could have purchased so many at the 50c price.

He was the richest player in Guild Wars, and he’s one of the richest players now. I wouldn’t doubt him.

Mortryde/Cold/Thugmentalist Bara
really bad engineer

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Posted by: krs.7520

krs.7520

Is it appropriate to have a vanity holiday item that rare? I can understand that level of rarity for something that is a core part of the game, but why do that to a vanity item that can only be found for about two weeks out of the year?

Yes, we dont want essential items to be rare, because that would force every one to grind for them. For cosmetics and fun stuff its fine. If you really want it you could bought it of the TP.

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Posted by: FXHell.3217

FXHell.3217

Hey,

here is my attempt to get the unbreakable choir.

I opened 1000 giant wintersday gifts (with 80% magic find, dunno if it helps). I had no luck… i think at this point i’ll stop go farming for the choir, it’s to hard to get. But ok,
super rare items are super rare… got it… and it’s only a choir… a super-duper awesome unbreakable choir. :’(

I still have the bells left, that keeps ringing in my head everyday.

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Posted by: Quarktastic.1027

Quarktastic.1027

Don’t know, friend and I got 5 bells and 1 endless tonic in about 20,000 gifts. The medium gifts were the best bet, at around 50-60c each (and yes, they were that price back then too). With the sell price of snowflakes, ugly wool items, and weapon skins, it was actually a small PROFIT to open the gifts and an even bigger profit to sell the bells.

This is not true in the least. I just opened 500 medium boxes, to the tune of just under 4g. I received approximately 1.5g worth of items.

Those armadillos would be a lot cooler if they looked more like real armadillos. mmm armadillos
-BnooMaGoo.5690

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Posted by: VitisVinifera.2834

VitisVinifera.2834

it’s about time I got lucky. I have 2 unbreakable bells and I’m just casually playing, not farming or buying. I’m guessing 200-250 presents.

Unbreakable Bells found about 1 / 20,000

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Posted by: Car.3805

Car.3805

Don’t know, friend and I got 5 bells and 1 endless tonic in about 20,000 gifts. The medium gifts were the best bet, at around 50-60c each (and yes, they were that price back then too). With the sell price of snowflakes, ugly wool items, and weapon skins, it was actually a small PROFIT to open the gifts and an even bigger profit to sell the bells.

This is not true in the least. I just opened 500 medium boxes, to the tune of just under 4g. I received approximately 1.5g worth of items.

It WAS profitable – underlined where I said it.

It was no longer profitable after it was announced on the boards by the official post that the bells dropped from small/medium gifts too. It was a very small profit, but in total, I think I made about 2g from opening 10k gifts.

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Posted by: Toast.6459

Toast.6459

Still cheaper to go medium then any other present it seems. I got 1250 for ~7g last night, and I still lost money, but not as much as I would have with any other size.

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Posted by: Lacechan.6524

Lacechan.6524

It seems he wasn’t truly satisfied with his number, so he opened even more gifts. http://www.reddit.com/r/Guildwars2/comments/15omze/update_i_have_now_opened_300000_giant_wintersday/

15 Bells and 9 Toymaker Tonics after a grand total of 300,000 giant wintersday gifts. If true drop rate (he doesn’t think it is) he says the Bell droprate is 1/20000 (0.005%) and Tonic is 1/33333 (0.003%).

There’s some other stuff he puts like guesswork about how many bells / tonics will be in the market for this year and how many gifts will be sold by the time the event ends.

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Posted by: Phoenix.3416

Phoenix.3416

I started off with 20g worth of presents, I opened all of them and sold the sweaters and items which gave me 11g back, I repeated this over and over till I hit 1g remaining.
No bell, stupid amount of presents opened, and my finger is in pain from clicking so many times haha
as much as the bell could be annoying for some I think its unfair that its so rare so the only people who end up with it are the rich guys who farmed a stupid amount to save up. Most will buy it then save it for later and resell it at a higher cost
I actually wanted to learn to play it properly

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Posted by: Toast.6459

Toast.6459

Bad RNG rates are bad RNG rates, thats what it boils down to.

Most presents I opened all at once was around 1250 = nothing worth mentioning
250 presents = Endless Toymaker’s Tonic after about 50 presents

It’s all in the random luck, which I still disagree with, but thats how it is right now

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Posted by: Jinx.7945

Jinx.7945

It seems he wasn’t truly satisfied with his number, so he opened even more gifts. http://www.reddit.com/r/Guildwars2/comments/15omze/update_i_have_now_opened_300000_giant_wintersday/

15 Bells and 9 Toymaker Tonics after a grand total of 300,000 giant wintersday gifts. If true drop rate (he doesn’t think it is) he says the Bell droprate is 1/20000 (0.005%) and Tonic is 1/33333 (0.003%).

There’s some other stuff he puts like guesswork about how many bells / tonics will be in the market for this year and how many gifts will be sold by the time the event ends.

I ran some statistics on this. Based on sample size (300,000) and observed Bell drops (15), we can be 95% confident that the overall drop rate lies between 0.0028% – 0.0082%.

(For the tonics, between 0.0014% – 0.0057%.)

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Posted by: Lacechan.6524

Lacechan.6524

It’s kind of interesting he discovered an “extremely useful purpose” for the tonics that will make their price sky rocket.

Outside of him driving up interest I wonder if it’s related to WvW and culling.

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Posted by: Terrahero.9358

Terrahero.9358

You dont need to open 1600 gifts. Jut buy that bell for 40 gold, problem solved..

>implying 40g is a small amount of money

Its a lot faster to get then farming boxes. 5g for 3 AC runs, farm some ori/omnoms/wood for another 1.5-2g a day. Count the mithril ore on that, which is priced very well right now and gems and getting 10g a day is very achievable without pulling allnighters.

The event was till 3th iirc so with 0g it should still be possible.

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Posted by: PopeUrban.2578

PopeUrban.2578

I believe it is appropriate to have super-rare items tied to monthly events, both holiday and non-holiday, both core equipment and vanity.

One of the biggest draws of monthly events is that they mark specific points in time in the life of the game. One of the biggest draws of rare loot is that it’s special, unique, and not everyone has it. GW2, like its predecessor uses cosmetic and vanity items to fill the “Unique because not everyone has one” role, because making those items required to complete content results in less overall accessible content for everyone.

However.

The concept of individuality is very important in any MMO, and a large part of that is not just the color of your gear or the tweaks to your avatar, but the things you acquire along the way. What you own is part of the story of that character, and hard to get holiday loot is a double-whammy of “I was there” and “I got the thing”

You can bet your bottom dollar that the people that got a bell to drop this month are statistically extremely unlikely to get the uber-rare thing that drops next month. This is a good thing, as months down the line you’ve got a world fleshed out with characters with a plethora of interesting and unique trinkets rather than a sea of sameness.

If you needed the bell to access a special dungeon, or experience content of any kind, then I’d agree that its rarity isn’t warranted. The thing is that you don’t, and that you had the same chance to “luck out” as anyone else.

For the hardcore completionists, you need to be aware that completing collections of things is extremely difficult in both the real world and in video games. Both are often worlds when don’t intend you to own one of everything, and often make you strive very hard or simply luck out to get the things you do.

If you don’t get the bell, and you want it that badly, you can still acquire it with a lot of effort, and you’ll do so because YOU wanted it, not because the game said you had to have it. GW2 is a game that in virtually all cases makes it very easy to get the things you need, but challenging to get the things you want, enough so that you are encouraged to decide for yourself exactly what it is that you want, and if you’re willing to do what it takes to get it. This is implicit in the design because if wants were as easy as needs there would be nothing to strive toward and nothing to get excited about in terms of the things you acquire. In short, a very boring game.

Guild Master – The Papacy [POPE] (Gate of Madness)/Road Scholar for the Durmand Priory
Writer/Director – Quaggan Quest
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ky2TGPmMPeQ

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Posted by: Jovel.5706

Jovel.5706

Why is everyone complaining about a virtual musical instrument? It doesn’t help you with combat nor is there any achievements or titles tied to playing the choir bell or the choir bell minigame. If you want the bell so badly then buy the regular bells. Buy like 2 stacks of them because honestly, how many of you will stop at a city and play it more than 500 times for 2 minutes?

If you want more musical instruments then suggest them. Give ArenaNet new ideas for new instruments. Pretty sure they’ll be consumables though, with everlasting/endless versions that will be hard to get BUT that was always the case even in GW1. Everlasting tonics were always rare.

I also see it didn’t take long before someone brought up the miniature Polar Bear from GW1, did ArenaNet ever raise the drop rate on that miniature pet even though there’s been people whining about it for years? No? Same with the unbreakable bell.

Just think about it. If this was GW1 you all would be crying about a polar bear minipet. Also avoiding grenches and snowmen then staying at some corner while NPC’s killed eachother and left you a chest wasn’t fun, so don’t sit there and tell me clicking on 20,000 gifts is different. You get the gifts from killing monsters, PvP, doing a jumping puzzle, playing a musical minigame, etc… if there was such a thing in GW1 that still yielded a miniature Polar Bear then I would be happy. So this system is infact better than doing a minidungeon solo.. risking death and starting over from the beginning with NO WAYPOINTS anywhere in the dungeon.. for a 0.02% drop rate on a polar bear… or was it 0.002%? The developers never told us how low it was, but confirmed the estimates were rather close.