Guild Wars 2

cranked.3812:

Anet could very easily adjust some drop rates or use other methods as mentioned to curb drastic market shocks like for example the spike in iron ore that occurred during the end of the last LS.

But iron ore was freely available, you just needed to go and farm it. Its actually one of the most easiest farmed mats in game but instead of going out and get it yourself, you complain that it got too expensive on the tp and your solution is that Anet raises the droprate because you cant be bothered to farm 300 iron ore in a day to get your ascended spinal blades on the first day of release.

That iron spike was actually a grand example of how the player driven economy quickly regulates prices itself.

I don’t think there is very much inflation in the economic sense of the word, but in another sense it doesn’t matter all that much.

You play the game for a few months and you hit level 80. In another month of very casual play you have a full set of exotic armor. Now there are really only two things left to do, either you make ascended armor and weapons, you make a legendary weapon or both. None of the other materials in the game really matter to a level 80 player who has exotic armor. Their primary interest in those items is to sell it to other players or speculators.

So I can see where many players are coming from. Who cares if there is inflation on the economy as a whole, players could care less about the economy as a whole. The only thing most players care about is the economy of legendaries and the economy of ascended armor. If an item isn’t involved in one of those two processes then it isn’t part of the economy that they see. If you were to separate out every item associated with legendary weapons and analyze the inflation based on that, I bet it would be absurdly high. Because most players don’t trade or deal with any of the “indicator” items that people are using to measure inflation, they only trade in items that matter to them.

As the game matures, prices associated with legendary weapons will continue to spiral out of control because it is the only endgame available to players to work towards. Sure the price of T3 wood is very stable and not inflating, but only the constant cycle of new players harvest and use it and keep it at the same price. Meanwhile the huge pile of level 80 players are all desperately competing over dwindling supplies of legendary mats because it is the only thing in the game to actually work towards.

As more and more players make legendaries prices will continue to rise since the demand is rising and the constant nerfs keep lowering supply. The only limit to the price is how much people are willing to work. What ends up keeping the prices in check is players quitting because they don’t think it is worth it anymore, thus lowering the demand… this may mean the economy is functioning “as intended” but the game as whole is suffering instead. Which is more important in the long run?

If S < D, then P goes up. As P goes up, more people farm because the profit margin from farming outstrips the benefit from other activities. This continues until S > D, at which point margins begin to fall again, pushing producers out of the market and back into other things like dungeon farming. But on the whole, as economic activity grows, prices change accordingly (typical, growth driven inflation).

The GW2 economy is extremely demand driven and extremely competitive, so it’s very stable on the whole. Of course, things may spike when there are shocks to supply (venom crash from blinx farm) or demand (wardrobe for legendaries, minis). Think about how fast the market for minis stabilized —- market clearing prices were established within an hour or two when it was just driven by speculation and not consumption.

It may take a while to balance out, but there’s always an opportunity for players to increase supply, which in turn drives prices down, cycle continues. Precursors have stayed high because demand remains high. Precursors are more expensive right? At the same time, the market for 68+ rares is up too. So you can make more money selling rares.

If people were “efficient” then they would shift their economic activity into doing things that got more rares to sell (WBT, etc…), thus generating more gold, thus making it more affordable — even at the new prices, I suspect.

Again, even though it may take time for people to adjust, on the whole the economy is very healthy.

Don’t forget to mention the main scapegoat that the ignorants have to explain changes in the price level for individual goods: the TP Barons. A very small and select group of filthy rich individuals whose only purpose is to control the supply of certain goods in order to become even richer while smoking habanos and laughing at the poor peasants that cannot afford to buy a cheeseburger.

Anet ban them asap!

One thing I forgot to mention: sure, it’s anet’s job to ensure that (a) player demand exists (people want to make things) and (b) supply is goldilocks (not too loose, not too tight).

If you want to complain about JS’s mismanagement of the economy, there are plenty of examples about idiosyncratic changes that went haywire (candy corn) and crafting formulas making no sense (requiring charged lodestones for EVERYTHING, while glacial and crystals remain mostly worthless).

anabasis.7346:

Don’t forget to mention the main scapegoat that the ignorants have to explain changes in the price level for individual goods: the TP Barons. A very small and select group of filthy rich individuals whose only purpose is to control the supply of certain goods in order to become even richer while smoking habanos and laughing at the poor peasants that cannot afford to buy a cheeseburger.

Anet ban them asap!

Cheeseburgers, at 1 copper highest bid, are affordable by anybody!
Even at 10 copper lowest listing, everybody should be able to eat one once in awhile.
For those who want to be a TP Baron as well, its a great item to start your flipping career at 700% profit.

By Ogdens Hammer!

Can you give examples of items where they havent done it?

Well, for example they didn’t backstop Precursor prices during the April wardrobe patch. Also, and this is in the opposite direction, but they did not protect Elder Wood prices from the Foxfire change. Now, maybe they intended for the price of Elder Wood to drop, but if they didn’t, the simple solution would have been to require large amounts of it to be used in crafting the backpacks, like maybe requiring Elder Charcoal or some sort of grow shed or something, so that while the new availability of Foxfire led to more farming of Elder trees, it would also involve an equivalent need for the wood produced, keeping the overall price stable.

If S < D, then P goes up. As P goes up, more people farm because the profit margin from farming outstrips the benefit from other activities. This continues until S > D, at which point margins begin to fall again, pushing producers out of the market and back into other things like dungeon farming. But on the whole, as economic activity grows, prices change accordingly (typical, growth driven inflation).

This works to some degree, but some items can’t be farmed, or can only be farmed in a very inefficient manner (like chucking exotics into the MF), so supply is harder for players to adjust to meet demand. When the methods to farm something are more trouble than they’re worth, sure the price will balance out at some point, but the balance point may be well above what the item should be worth (ie Silver Doubloons which are going for over five times the Platinum ones).

Ohoni.6057:

Can you give examples of items where they havent done it?

Well, for example they didn’t backstop Precursor prices during the April wardrobe patch. Also, and this is in the opposite direction, but they did not protect Elder Wood prices from the Foxfire change. Now, maybe they intended for the price of Elder Wood to drop, but if they didn’t, the simple solution would have been to require large amounts of it to be used in crafting the backpacks, like maybe requiring Elder Charcoal or some sort of grow shed or something, so that while the new availability of Foxfire led to more farming of Elder trees, it would also involve an equivalent need for the wood produced, keeping the overall price stable.

If S < D, then P goes up. As P goes up, more people farm because the profit margin from farming outstrips the benefit from other activities. This continues until S > D, at which point margins begin to fall again, pushing producers out of the market and back into other things like dungeon farming. But on the whole, as economic activity grows, prices change accordingly (typical, growth driven inflation).

This works to some degree, but some items can’t be farmed, or can only be farmed in a very inefficient manner (like chucking exotics into the MF), so supply is harder for players to adjust to meet demand. When the methods to farm something are more trouble than they’re worth, sure the price will balance out at some point, but the balance point may be well above what the item should be worth (ie Silver Doubloons which are going for over five times the Platinum ones).

What makes you think that the droprate of precursors hasnt increased since April?
For me, Drytop is a good farming place for them. High mob density, high champ bag drop rate, high player population so lots of kills. The droprate for t5-6 fine mats also seems quite high there for me, both are the prime ingredients for crafting rares/exotics to throw into the forge. The average value for t5 fine mats has more than doubled since April, so if you dont want to forge, you get double the value for it on the tp now compared to April, which gets you faster to the gold you need to buy one from the tp.

The Elder Wood example actually is a good example how big an impact the player base has on supply and demand as droprates werent adjusted.

Ohoni.6057:

This works to some degree, but some items can’t be farmed, or can only be farmed in a very inefficient manner (like chucking exotics into the MF), so supply is harder for players to adjust to meet demand. When the methods to farm something are more trouble than they’re worth, sure the price will balance out at some point, but the balance point may be well above what the item should be worth (ie Silver Doubloons which are going for over five times the Platinum ones).

Items are worth what players believe they are worth. Just because something is a higher tier doesn’t mean it’s “worth” more. The higher price for silver doubloons may suck for an 80 who needs them to make Juggz, but it’s a windfall for leveling characters who stumble on them.

As I said before, there are certainly problems with the distribution of “hot” items like charged lodestones. But those don’t generate inflation across the board. The are very limited gold faucets in this game.

ZudetGambeous.9573:

You play the game for a few months and you hit level 80. In another month of very casual play you have a full set of exotic armor. Now there are really only two things left to do, either you make ascended armor and weapons, you make a legendary weapon or both. None of the other materials in the game really matter to a level 80 player who has exotic armor. Their primary interest in those items is to sell it to other players or speculators.

Or you roll another character.

What makes you think that the droprate of precursors hasnt increased since April?

Perhaps it has, but if so, not enough, because it’s not keeping up with inflation (vernacular). And if you’re talking about killing mobs in an attempt to get precursors, I’ve been killing mobs constantly for two years now and never once had any Precursors drop, not even a Rage, so that seems like a rather pointless exercise to me. If it happens it happens, but I would never farm mobs in an attempt to get a pre.

The Elder Wood example actually is a good example how big an impact the player base has on supply and demand as droprates werent adjusted.

I know, but player demand was adjusted. Basically ANet made an adjustment to player behavior, by giving them a higher profit margin on harvesting elder+ trees. This led players ot harvest elder+ trees for Forxfire, and ended up with a lot of extra elder wood, since there was no increase demand, so price went down. This was all a predictable result.

My point is not, and has never been that players have no impact on the markets, but rather that the influence players have on the market is just a predictable consequence of the actions Anet make to alter supply or demand in a given item. Players do not drive the market, ANet drives the market, the players are just along for the ride, running the maze for their cheese.

Think of it a bit like Sim City, where you don’t build buildings, you just zone areas and the sims will build buildings there based on that zoning in a predictable fashion. Likewise, ANet “zones” the economy, and players predictably populate it with their buying and selling habits, but the actual “player” of the economy is ANet.

Items are worth what players believe they are worth. Just because something is a higher tier doesn’t mean it’s “worth” more. The higher price for silver doubloons may suck for an 80 who needs them to make Juggz, but it’s a windfall for leveling characters who stumble on them.

Yeah, but in a rational world they would have recipes such that higher tier items would always be worth more than the tiers below them. I’m not saying that players should be forced to sell higher or lower than the market demands, I’m saying there should be uses for gold and platinum doubloons that would make them even more useful than silver ones, as an example, or make silver ones significantly more common, so while they are more useful, enough of them enter the marketplace to offset that.

Ohoni.6057:

My point is not, and has never been that players have no impact on the markets, but rather that the influence players have on the market is just a predictable consequence of the actions Anet make to alter supply or demand in a given item. Players do not drive the market, ANet drives the market, the players are just along for the ride, running the maze for their cheese.

Think of it a bit like Sim City, where you don’t build buildings, you just zone areas and the sims will build buildings there based on that zoning in a predictable fashion. Likewise, ANet “zones” the economy, and players predictably populate it with their buying and selling habits, but the actual “player” of the economy is ANet.

You have it backwards regarding players and Anet. As far as player-driven, well…

John Smith.4610:

Ayrilana.1396:

John,

Can you provide an explanation of what a player-driven economy is?

Do you feel GW2 falls under this and why?

Super very simple:
Players set prices, players set supply. Prices are set by the players. Players can change the supply of items by changes in their play activity.

All vendor based economies are not player driven. The TP is player driven. Apologies for the terse response, remind me sometime to revisit this more thoroughly.

You have it backwards regarding players and Anet. As far as player-driven, well…

No, I have it accurately. ANet determines the rules, the players follow them and the economy results. Players really have very little actual control but to play along. I mean, when ANet added Foxfire to the game, what could the players have realistically done in response? Could they have refused to farm elder logs, keeping their price stable while skyrocketing Foxfire and costing themselves a fortune? Farm the logs but continue to sell them at the same price, even though supply was way up? Of course not. With the conditions ANet implemented, the resulting economy is the ONLY one that could have happened. A single player might refuse to play along with the trend, even dozens of them, but overall the market will do what the market will do, and the individual players really have no influence over that, but the conditions that ANet implement has ALL the influence.

Ohoni.6057:

You have it backwards regarding players and Anet. As far as player-driven, well…

No, I have it accurately. ANet determines the rules, the players follow them and the economy results. Players really have very little actual control but to play along. I mean, when ANet added Foxfire to the game, what could the players have realistically done in response? Could they have refused to farm elder logs, keeping their price stable while skyrocketing Foxfire and costing themselves a fortune? Farm the logs but continue to sell them at the same price, even though supply was way up? Of course not. With the conditions ANet implemented, the resulting economy is the ONLY one that could have happened. A single player might refuse to play along with the trend, even dozens of them, but overall the market will do what the market will do, and the individual players really have no influence over that, but the conditions that ANet implement has ALL the influence.

Regaring the Elder Wood, I think Anet was a bit surprised as well. JS stated once already that he was very surprised when a certain mat (not sure which one it was anymore) disappeared by the millions due to a patch and within hours, the market regulated itself again. This was the first time, they implemented a mechanism like this (add a high value item to a gathering node) and I think they learned alot from it. But right now, they a still collecting data on player behaviour (how much did elder wood farming go up in general). Once they have enough data, I am sure they might implement it in other was to regulate some markets but that takes times. Once Jeweler 500 comes around, I could see them boosting platinum nodes (because t4 common mats have always been the bottleneck in ascended crafting), maybe with adding silver doubloons to platinum nodes. While the supplyshock of elder wood was more or less instant, they added another significant material faucet with mawdrey II. Once the majority of the player base has it built, they will start feeding it bloodstone dust on a daily basis and create a good variety of materials. Of course, we dont see much impact on these mats yet because not many have built mawdrey II yet but with last patch we saw 2 new mechanisms being introduced that can potentially regulate some material markets.

So the attempt from Anet is there, if regulation doesnt go fast enough or too fast, that could be related to player participation.

I would ask how do you call a system where despite gold production gets nerfed, prices of useful/sought after things keep steadily rising, while money value and rewards plummets.

Regaring the Elder Wood, I think Anet was a bit surprised as well. JS stated once already that he was very surprised when a certain mat (not sure which one it was anymore) disappeared by the millions due to a patch and within hours, the market regulated itself again.

If the Elder Wood situation surprised ANet then they were asleep at the wheel. It’s a pretty simple scenario, one of the more simple ones they’ve implemented. They made a move that would inevitably lead players to drastically ramp up “production” of the resource, without providing a new sink for that resource. Increased supply and reduced prices was an inevitable consequence.

It would be as easy to predict as if they implement a system in an upcoming patch that would give players a new reason to craft somewhat neglected items, which would of course cause a drastically increased demand for the materials needed to craft them. If they do not make a move to supply more of those materials to the market in some way, then of course the prices would rise accordingly.

This also isn’t the first time they’ve done something like this. Ascended items did it too, in a sense. Prior to ascended items, sub T5 basic mats were practically junk status, but when they increased demand for those mats to make Deldrimor, suddenly the price of iron ore almost doubled, then almost tripled the original prices when they added the blade packs, then settled down to still around double the pre-ascended pricing. It wasn’t exactly adding a new drop to the iron node table, but it certainly was greatly upping the worth of the iron it dropped.

Once the majority of the player base has it built, they will start feeding it bloodstone dust on a daily basis and create a good variety of materials.

I haven’t gotten a ton of mats out of Mawdrey. Mostly just random food, some greens, a rare or two, and a little light salvage. It all comes in drips and drabs though since you can only feed it 3-6 times per day. I did get one really cool thing though, a Giant’s Eye. That’s the only one I’ve ever had. I don’t think Mawdrey will reliably shift any market though, because it’s too random, it hits everything at once. The only market it has any real potential to shift is the super rare stuff.

So the attempt from Anet is there, if regulation doesnt go fast enough or too fast, that could be related to player participation.

But again, ANet should stay on top of the situation, and if players aren’t behaving as expected, and correcting the market as they thought it would, then they need to tweak something to make it work. I think with any given commodity that is likely to be impacted by a new patch, they should have three plans, the thing they are going to do, the thing they can do if supply outpaces demand to cut that out, and the thing they can do if demand outpaces supply to boost supply back up. They should launch with the first one, but be prepared to patch either of the others in within the week if the situation calls for it.

I would hope that they also have raw numbers on who is harvesting, so they would even be aware if people started hoarding, but while a few players might try to game the system by giving the impression of a market failure, there aren’t enough of them to actually turn the herd around and the market trends would likely be apparent.

Ohoni.6057:

Regaring the Elder Wood, I think Anet was a bit surprised as well. JS stated once already that he was very surprised when a certain mat (not sure which one it was anymore) disappeared by the millions due to a patch and within hours, the market regulated itself again.

If the Elder Wood situation surprised ANet then they were asleep at the wheel. It’s a pretty simple scenario, one of the more simple ones they’ve implemented. They made a move that would inevitably lead players to drastically ramp up “production” of the resource, without providing a new sink for that resource. Increased supply and reduced prices was an inevitable consequence.

It would be as easy to predict as if they implement a system in an upcoming patch that would give players a new reason to craft somewhat neglected items, which would of course cause a drastically increased demand for the materials needed to craft them. If they do not make a move to supply more of those materials to the market in some way, then of course the prices would rise accordingly.

This also isn’t the first time they’ve done something like this. Ascended items did it too, in a sense. Prior to ascended items, sub T5 basic mats were practically junk status, but when they increased demand for those mats to make Deldrimor, suddenly the price of iron ore almost doubled, then almost tripled the original prices when they added the blade packs, then settled down to still around double the pre-ascended pricing. It wasn’t exactly adding a new drop to the iron node table, but it certainly was greatly upping the worth of the iron it dropped.

Once the majority of the player base has it built, they will start feeding it bloodstone dust on a daily basis and create a good variety of materials.

I haven’t gotten a ton of mats out of Mawdrey. Mostly just random food, some greens, a rare or two, and a little light salvage. It all comes in drips and drabs though since you can only feed it 3-6 times per day. I did get one really cool thing though, a Giant’s Eye. That’s the only one I’ve ever had. I don’t think Mawdrey will reliably shift any market though, because it’s too random, it hits everything at once. The only market it has any real potential to shift is the super rare stuff.

So the attempt from Anet is there, if regulation doesnt go fast enough or too fast, that could be related to player participation.

But again, ANet should stay on top of the situation, and if players aren’t behaving as expected, and correcting the market as they thought it would, then they need to tweak something to make it work. I think with any given commodity that is likely to be impacted by a new patch, they should have three plans, the thing they are going to do, the thing they can do if supply outpaces demand to cut that out, and the thing they can do if demand outpaces supply to boost supply back up. They should launch with the first one, but be prepared to patch either of the others in within the week if the situation calls for it.

I would hope that they also have raw numbers on who is harvesting, so they would even be aware if people started hoarding, but while a few players might try to game the system by giving the impression of a market failure, there aren’t enough of them to actually turn the herd around and the market trends would likely be apparent.

Well, i still think that players regulating the market prices is the better approach because it sucks more gold out of economy and gives more income to farmers.

LordByron.8369:

I would ask how do you call a system where despite gold production gets nerfed, prices of useful/sought after things keep steadily rising, while money value and rewards plummets.

Deflation on currency and demand driven inflation on luxury items.

LordByron.8369:

I would ask how do you call a system where despite gold production gets nerfed, prices of useful/sought after things keep steadily rising, while money value and rewards plummets.

Because they are useful/sought after things as to why they rise. If gold production gets nerfed as you say then it can’t be a case too much money chasing after too few goods. So either you’re wrong and the amount of rewards is still significant relative to the general money supply or nobody is gathering or crafting or getting drops of those high demand items.

Well, i still think that players regulating the market prices is the better approach because it sucks more gold out of economy and gives more income to farmers.

And yet it results in markets like we have, where some items just get too expensive. If they want to suck gold out of the economy, do it using some method other than TP fees.

As I said in the precursor thread, the TP fee on listing a Dawn is around 150g, if they wanted to sell them via vendor for 300g, sinking twice as much gold out of the economy, I’d be fine with that.

Ohoni.6057:

Well, i still think that players regulating the market prices is the better approach because it sucks more gold out of economy and gives more income to farmers.

And yet it results in markets like we have, where some items just get too expensive. If they want to suck gold out of the economy, do it using some method other than TP fees.

As I said in the precursor thread, the TP fee on listing a Dawn is around 150g, if they wanted to sell them via vendor for 300g, sinking twice as much gold out of the economy, I’d be fine with that.

I wonder what the farmer, that gets the first Dawn drop after this has to say about the fact that his lucky drop out of a sudden is only worth 300g instead of 1500g.

Forging precursors will not be viable anymore, goodbye mat sink for elder wood/mithril and t5 fine mats. What will we need these for then? Right, nothing, hello vendor value.
The average loot value for lvl 80ies has just been nerfed by you, the new players will have as much as a hard time farming their 300g for Dawn as you have now farming 1500g.

I’ll edit all my posts with inflation, so that the word inflation is replaced by ‘price increase’. Good right? I just did a very simple action, my posts still mean the same, but inflation definition cannot be used anymore to counterdebate the post. Now you gonna have to go in true debate, rather then find mistakes in an opinion. I haven’t seen a single good argument in the other thread from the inflation definition protector’s. If they are so masterfull why is their lack of arguments to small? To scared to be picked at also?

Also, people should remember there is a thing called “price memory” and “sticky prices.” Those are the technical terms for the vernacular “new normal.” When Dusk surges to 1500g and stays there due to increased demand the “price memory” becomes 1500 even as demand subsides because people view that as the “normal price” and are loathe to sell for less and buyers come to think of it as a fair price to pay. This explains at least in part why the price of precursors don’t decrease quickly after the warbrobe demand shock.

Phoebe Ascension.8437:

I’ll edit all my posts with inflation, so that the word inflation is replaced by ‘price increase’. Good right? I just did a very simple action, my posts still mean the same, but inflation definition cannot be used anymore to counterdebate the post. Now you gonna have to go in true debate, rather then find mistakes in an opinion. I haven’t seen a single good argument in the other thread from the inflation definition protector’s. If they are so masterfull why is their lack of arguments to small? To scared to be picked at also?

Price increase? Well that clearly falls on supply and demand. As far as inflation, this thread started about inflation so you cannot simply say we cannot use it because you do not understand what it is nor how it’s calculated and would instead use the flawed argument that since some items may or may not have a gray area between what may be a luxury good, that the entire use of inflation should be ignored.

Price volatility gives people an opportunity to make money by shifting their resource (mats & gold) generating activities. It’s not anet’s fault if some people would rather complain about the high prices for certain luxury goods rather than take advantage of new earning opportunities.

Inflation is defined as a(n)
A. increase in some prices
B. increase in the price of a specific commodity
C. Sustained increase in the general price level
D. Sustained increase in the price level of a specific commodity

Phoebe Ascension.8437:

I’ll edit all my posts with inflation, so that the word inflation is replaced by ‘price increase’. Good right?

That would be a very good idea moving forward. In fact when you join any conversation in any sphere of life it is a very good idea to understand and adapt the vocabulary used by the people already having that conversation. This not only helps immensely with clarity but also is a strong signal that what you are saying can be taken seriously.

We see people come to this board to complain about ‘inflation’ all the time. They don’t understand the vocabulary and they get responded to as you would to a newbie. Rarely do you see one of them learn from corrections, adapt their vocabulary, and rephrase their complaint as a strong, specific argument; if I did see that, I would take it very seriously, because the author has indicated they are serious about engaging in that conversation.

More frequently, however, we see people who not only fail to learn the vocabulary of the trade, but are adamant that learning the language is not important. If you are still using inflation wrong after 20 posts in this forum you have signaled very clearly that you have no interest in serious engagement on the topic; basically, you’re establishing yourself as an ignorant troll.

So while I wouldn’t go as far as to edit old posts after the conversation has moved on, you should absolutely phrase your arguments properly in the future. I look forward to seeing what you have to say.

Ayrilana.1396:

Inflation is defined as

Inflation is a decrease in the price of money; deflation (negative inflation) is an increase in the price of money.

You can have an inflation rate (the rate at which the price of money decreases over time), or inflationary shocks (sudden decreases in the price of money), or similar, but in every case inflation specifically refers to a change in the price of money.

Conceptually that is all there is to it.

Ensign.2189:

Ayrilana.1396:

Inflation is defined as

Inflation is a decrease in the price of money; deflation (negative inflation) is an increase in the price of money.

You can have an inflation rate (the rate at which the price of money decreases over time), or inflationary shocks (sudden decreases in the price of money), or similar, but in every case inflation specifically refers to a change in the price of money.

Conceptually that is all there is to it.

Might be more understandable to other people if you used interest rate rather than price of money. Interest rate is just one aspect that can affect inflation but it’s not the only. You can have fluctuations in demand and supply that can trigger inflation as well. I

also don’t like using the interest rate as a determining factor in whether there’s inflation as the interest rates are normally set by a governing body such as a central bank. You can have inflation with interest rates remaining the same. It’s been years since my took my money and banking economics class so hopefully I’m explaining it clearly.

I wonder what the farmer, that gets the first Dawn drop after this has to say about the fact that his lucky drop out of a sudden is only worth 300g instead of 1500g.

“Yay, 300g out of nowhere!”

That’s well more than any drop I’ve ever received.

I am sympathetic to people who already have pres on the market when this change is made though. How I would roll this out is I would freeze the precursor market completely right before announcing the change, preventing anyone from adding new listings or buying from it. Then I would cancel all buy orders up to the new fixed price, returning that money. Then I would cancel all sell orders, returning all their listing fees. They would be out nothing (aside from hypothetical maybe money). Then the change would be announced and opened up to the public.

Forging precursors will not be viable anymore, goodbye mat sink for elder wood/mithril and t5 fine mats. What will we need these for then? Right, nothing, hello vendor value.

Does anyone use the Mystic Toilet to gamble for pres on anything other than the highly in demand weapons like GS or Staff? I mean does anyone throw dozens of spearguns into the forge, hoping to get Rage? Then if not, why are the worst rares still within about 75% of the value of the “high value” rares? If the MF→Pre pipeline was all that kept the rare market stable then half the weapon types would be at vendor value by now. My assumption is that most rares in the 30-kitten range and most exotics in the 1-3g range are bought for salvage and skins. The price might drop on GS and other higher-value rares, but not to a cripplingly low level.

Also, if they wanted to keep MFing for Pres as a viable activity, the simple solution would be to just up the drop rate, so that while currently you would presumably have to dump on average 600g+ in greatswords in order to be likely for a Dawn or Dusk to drop, if they are hard capped at 300g then they could raise the rate to the point where you’d only need to drop an average of 200g worth of GW in, or whatever the fair value balance point would be. Then if you wanted to gamble, you could use the MF and take your chances, maybe save some money, but if you wanted a sure thing, you’d never have to pay more than 300g.

There is not an excess of currency at all levels of the spectrum….

Inflation is a macroeconomic concept that describes changes in the general prices for goods and services in an economy. If there is inflation, the value of 1 unit of currency is decreasing. If there is deflation, the value of 1 unit of currency increases.

Generally speaking, inflation occurs for two broad reasons: (1) excess currency allows consumers to bid up the general price levels (demand driven) and (2) increased production costs drive up general price levels (supply driven).

You forgot the 3rd reason as outlined by Thomas Piketty: Extreme growing Disparity and manipulation. Wealth does not trickle down to the filthy casual. They just watch it roll away miles ahead of them until they are no longer participating in said economy (or the game itself) at which point it becomes completely untethered from Supply&Demand itself. It’s actually the natural process of the wealthy getting wealthier and losing all sense of what it ever felt like to “struggle” financially.

This has been exposed as well in WOW’s and EVE’s economies with equally “run away” inflation. IE: the market drives the market. Power players fix prices. Price fixing and other shenanigans has been with the U.S. citizen since the days of the Continental Confederation.

ilr.9675:

Mckeone.9804:

Inflation is a macroeconomic concept that describes changes in the general prices for goods and services in an economy. If there is inflation, the value of 1 unit of currency is decreasing. If there is deflation, the value of 1 unit of currency increases.

Generally speaking, inflation occurs for two broad reasons: (1) excess currency allows consumers to bid up the general price levels (demand driven) and (2) increased production costs drive up general price levels (supply driven).

You forgot the 3rd reason as outlined by Thomas Piketty: Extreme growing Disparity and manipulation. Wealth does not trickle down to the filthy casual. They just watch it roll away miles ahead of them until they are no longer participating in said economy (or the game itself). No it’s actually the natural process of the wealthy getting wealthier and losing all sense of what it ever felt like to “struggle” financially.

This has been exposed as well in WOW’s and EVE’s economies with equally “run away” inflation. IE: the market drives the market. Power players fix prices. Price fixing and other shenanigans has been with the U.S. citizen since the days of the Continental Confederation.

There’s very little manipulation.

There’s very little manipulation.

Yes, the prices skyrocketing in various markets right now have absolutely nothing to do with people intending to sell those items back for more at a later date. Absolutely nothing. Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain.

Ohoni.6057:

There’s very little manipulation.

Yes, the prices skyrocketing in various markets right now have absolutely nothing to do with people intending to sell those items back for more at a later date. Absolutely nothing. Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain.

There’s a difference between what I’m saying and what you’re suggesting and you know it.

Ayrilana.1396:

There’s very little manipulation.

I agree. ….quantitative wise….

There doesn’t need to be much to begin with since we’re not talking about every commodity in the game. We’re not even looking at 1/10th of every commodity in the game. Trying to do so would actually be highly counter-productive for the marketeers. That’s not where wealth inflation happens anyway…. Hint: It only happens to commodities supplied purely by R.N.G rolls that can quickly have their supply outstripped by hardcore-demand and thing like GEMS where there is never a risk of deflation.

The issue is that previous post had to be stated regardless because the propaganda school of thought among all Oligarchy-economists has been to claim that a rising tide lifts all ships. No it does not. Only the very wealthy can afford damask right now. Again, a miniscule portion of the economy but one that most players can no longer participate in.

Mckeone.9804:

One year ago, that piece of gear cost 5 gold and it takes you 1 hour to earn 5 gold. Today, that piece of gear costs 6 gold, but now you can earn 6 gold in 1 hour instead of 5. It’s all relative.

Earning 6g/hr ISN’T the norm for all game modes. Eeeeenough said…..

There’s a difference between what I’m saying and what you’re suggesting and you know it.

If there is, then it’s a distinction that really doesn’t matter in the grand scheme of things. What matters is when things are selling for more than they really have to, and why.

Ohoni.6057:

There’s a difference between what I’m saying and what you’re suggesting and you know it.

If there is, then it’s a distinction that really doesn’t matter in the grand scheme of things. What matters is when things are selling for more than they really have to, and why.

They are just selling for more than you think they are worth. Apparantly other players value them differently.

Ayrilana.1396:

Might be more understandable to other people if you used interest rate rather than price of money.

It’s not the interest rate at all though. Inflation and interest rates are completely different concepts.

You can think of inflation this way. There are tens of thousands of items available in GW2. For any pair of items, you can figure out the ‘price’ of one in the other – you could figure out the price of Dusk in, say, carrots. You could then price out every other item in the game in the same way, getting its price in carrots. You can also track how its price changes, in carrots – Dusk has surged in its price in carrots! There’s nothing magical going on here, it’s just the price of one item with respect to another, with one of them being used as a universal base.

The trouble is, how do you isolate which is responsible – is it that Dusk has gone up in real value, or is it that carrots have dropped in real value? You can’t just check to see how carrots have moved with respect to…carrots. No matter what item you use as a measure, you have no direct way to measure how the value of that measure has moved.

That’s what inflation is. It’s when whatever you are measuring in moves in real value.

When you have inflation, it’s not that Dusk is going up in real value – people want it about as much as they want it before, and the supply hasn’t changed. It’s that gold has dropped in value, and thus the price of Dusk in gold has gone up (or the price of gold in Dusks has gone down!)

To figure out if it’s gold that is moving in value, and not a particular item, you have to check it indirectly – by measuring a whole bunch of different item prices that would otherwise be uncorrelated except through their price in gold.

That’s why inflation is ‘special’, as a price movement; as a currency is the measuring tool you use to evaluate prices of everything else, movements in the ‘price’ of your measure are really important, since they affect what your measurements mean.

Ensign.2189:

Ayrilana.1396:

Might be more understandable to other people if you used interest rate rather than price of money.

It’s not the interest rate at all though. Inflation and interest rates are completely different concepts.

You can think of inflation this way. There are tens of thousands of items available in GW2. For any pair of items, you can figure out the ‘price’ of one in the other – you could figure out the price of Dusk in, say, carrots. You could then price out every other item in the game in the same way, getting its price in carrots. You can also track how its price changes, in carrots – Dusk has surged in its price in carrots! There’s nothing magical going on here, it’s just the price of one item with respect to another, with one of them being used as a universal base.

The trouble is, how do you isolate which is responsible – is it that Dusk has gone up in real value, or is it that carrots have dropped in real value? You can’t just check to see how carrots have moved with respect to…carrots. No matter what item you use as a measure, you have no direct way to measure how the value of that measure has moved.

That’s what inflation is. It’s when whatever you are measuring in moves in real value.

When you have inflation, it’s not that Dusk is going up in real value – people want it about as much as they want it before, and the supply hasn’t changed. It’s that gold has dropped in value, and thus the price of Dusk in gold has gone up (or the price of gold in Dusks has gone down!)

To figure out if it’s gold that is moving in value, and not a particular item, you have to check it indirectly – by measuring a whole bunch of different item prices that would otherwise be uncorrelated except through their price in gold.

That’s why inflation is ‘special’, as a price movement; as a currency is the measuring tool you use to evaluate prices of everything else, movements in the ‘price’ of your measure are really important, since they affect what your measurements mean.

When I hear someone talk about the price of money, I immediately think of the interest rate. That’s essentially what it is referred to. If you’re saying what I think you’re trying to say based on your carrot explanation then stick with saying purchasing power of the dollar. Price of money is not the phrase that you should be using.

You can measure whether Dusk has gone up in value or whether gold has gone down in value. Also you cannot simply pass off demand and supply shocks. Inflation is not caused solely by the weakening of a currency.

They are just selling for more than you think they are worth. Apparantly other players value them differently.

And we’re back to “supply and demand justifies all” again. It’s a very tautological argument. “Why are prices the way they are?” “Because they are the way they are.” If other players think that the items are worth more than I do, then it is because ANet has set the stats or appearance or recipe usage of it to be very good, and/or the method of acquiring them significantly time consuming and/or difficult. Had ANet made different choices in that regard then the players behaviors would adapt accordingly, therefore I refuse to blame my fellow players for high prices, no matter how many times you try to convince me that I should.

Ohoni.6057:

They are just selling for more than you think they are worth. Apparantly other players value them differently.

And we’re back to “supply and demand justifies all” again. It’s a very tautological argument. “Why are prices the way they are?” “Because they are the way they are.” If other players think that the items are worth more than I do, then it is because ANet has set the stats or appearance or recipe usage of it to be very good, and/or the method of acquiring them significantly time consuming and/or difficult. Had ANet made different choices in that regard then the players behaviors would adapt accordingly, therefore I refuse to blame my fellow players for high prices, no matter how many times you try to convince me that I should.

So can you please explain to me how inflating the item supply is less damaging to the game economy than inflating the gold supply?

So can you please explain to me how inflating the item supply is less damaging to the game economy than inflating the gold supply?

No, I cannot, because I’m not an economist, but I am a player, and as a player I can tell you that inflating the supply would mean that more people that wanted the item would have the item, which they would appreciate. It’s the economists’ job to make that happen while maintaining a functioning economy.

If you build a player economy with the economy in mind first, to have the mechanics of it running like a well oiled machine above other considerations, then you have completely failed when working on an action/adventure game. It’s relatively easy to make a functioning economy that only cares about itself and is designed without considering the actual players who want to USE the items being kicked around it. That sort of attitude would only be appropriate to an economic simulator like EVE.

You have to start from the players first, to make sure that players can find the things they want at a price that is reasonable to each of them, and to sell all their stuff at a price that seems worth the effort, those are the ONLY two goals around which the economy must be built, everything else is secondary to that. In its current state, I think that the economy does a decent enough job at the latter, but is still way off the mark on the former in plenty of markets, and the new collection sets have made that so much worse.

Ayrilana.1396:

When I hear someone talk about the price of money, I immediately think of the interest rate.

Yeah, you’re right; in the real world people are interested in inter-temporal costs. The term I’m looking for is…inflation. Ugh. This is why you have to be so precise, all the good synonyms are taken to refer to something else specific.

Ayrilana.1396:

Inflation is not caused solely by the weakening of a currency.

Weakening of a currency (though that’s usually used when talking exchange rates) or strengthening (?) of a goods market. They have different secondary effects.

I dunno, in my head it’s all a really straightforward ‘n variables n-1 degrees of freedom from only measuring ratios’ thing, but unless you spend a lot of time thinking about this stuff that’s really non-obvious.

Ohoni.6057:

So can you please explain to me how inflating the item supply is less damaging to the game economy than inflating the gold supply?

No, I cannot, because I’m not an economist, but I am a player, and as a player I can tell you that inflating the supply would mean that more people that wanted the item would have the item, which they would appreciate. It’s the economists’ job to make that happen while maintaining a functioning economy.

If you build a player economy with the economy in mind first, to have the mechanics of it running like a well oiled machine above other considerations, then you have completely failed when working on an action/adventure game. It’s relatively easy to make a functioning economy that only cares about itself and is designed without considering the actual players who want to USE the items being kicked around it. That sort of attitude would only be appropriate to an economic simulator like EVE.

You have to start from the players first, to make sure that players can find the things they want at a price that is reasonable to each of them, and to sell all their stuff at a price that seems worth the effort, those are the ONLY two goals around which the economy must be built, everything else is secondary to that. In its current state, I think that the economy does a decent enough job at the latter, but is still way off the mark on the former in plenty of markets, and the new collection sets have made that so much worse.

By paying the box price, they gave you life long access to a game, which constantly updates its content and is playable by every player with relative ease while he hasnt to spend much gold. There are some items which are rare and therefore expensive. You dont need those items to play the game but if you wnat them nonetheless, Anet gives you an option to buy gold with gems to purchase those. Thats how they make money.
If they would hand out everything to everybody, this game would be dead by the end of the year.

Ohoni.6057:

They are just selling for more than you think they are worth. Apparantly other players value them differently.

And we’re back to “supply and demand justifies all” again. It’s a very tautological argument. “Why are prices the way they are?” “Because they are the way they are.” If other players think that the items are worth more than I do, then it is because ANet has set the stats or appearance or recipe usage of it to be very good, and/or the method of acquiring them significantly time consuming and/or difficult. Had ANet made different choices in that regard then the players behaviors would adapt accordingly, therefore I refuse to blame my fellow players for high prices, no matter how many times you try to convince me that I should.

You are just trolling at this point.

So can you please explain to me how inflating the item supply is less damaging to the game economy than inflating the gold supply?

No, I cannot, because I’m not an economist, but I am a player, and as a player I can tell you that inflating the supply would mean that more people that wanted the item would have the item, which they would appreciate. It’s the economists’ job to make that happen while maintaining a functioning economy.

So when people ask you to support your argument, you’re falling back on the “but this isnt my job” line. Quite frankly JS has better things to do than to make it easier for people to get something because they dont want to take the actions already available for obtaining it. Not his job to cater to lazy people.

”If you build a player”

Purely perception. And wrong. Anet merely built the framework of the economy by setting basic rules, such as the taxation rate, as well as determining the basic in-supply rate of both materials via node times and drop rate (ie moldy bags), as well as item’s themselves via direct looting (monster drops) or other means (WB chests, champ bags, etc). Additionally, they also provided a limit on gold creation, the only thing that will cause inflation to start out with, by limiting the large chunks to dungeons and some world bosses. 8 dungeons, 3 paths, accounting for some dungeons with a >1g payout, that’s roughly 30g a day. Add it world bosses like Teq, you’re looking at around 31-32g a day. Per player.
Assuming 5 people reached level 80 as well as top-level exos on Day One, and proceeding to run all 8 dungeons and their paths for the next 2 years, that’s a total of 21,870 gold per player in total accumulated wealth. Roughly 110,000 gold for just 5 people. Now, let’s assuming a generous 500 parties complete the same rigorous run as the first one did. 54.8m gold generated from a singular source. That’s merely the gold generated from 2505 people running dungeons and only accounting the gold generated from the end-reward. I’m fairly certain there’s far more players than that, which means the number is likely much closer to250b gold generated from dungeons.

So tell us, how is it people cant afford something they want to use? Not enough time each day? Well, if it’s because you work, pull out the paycheck and buy gems. Go to school? Get off the kittening game and go study already. Other reasons? Anet doesnt care. They gave you the opportunities, you merely refuse to use them. Why should Anet fix that? Also, to end this part, I’ll quote JS: “We arent making a game, we’re making a world.” GW2 isnt merely a game, it’s a microcosm.

”You have to start from the players first”

You’re associating your argument with a vendor economy. Not only is it an irrelevant argument, it also ignores every economic behavior that governs markets. Quite frankly, the economy of GW2 is a kitten near perfect replica of the same economic we have outside of the game. That’s why it works, and that’s why people have problems with it. Afterall, people are demanding to buy a Lamborghini Veneno Roadster ($4.5 million), dusk/spark/etc, for the price of a ‘98 station wagon ($5000?). It’s not a hard concept for people to understand. If S>D, P-. If S<D, P+. Further, if S>>D, such as thick leather, the price is going to be even lower. When S<<D, such as precursors for the most used weapon types, anyone expecting the price to do anything but be drastically higher is a fool.

To top it off, in such cases, those items are outliers due to various reasons, with the simplest being their supply. Precursors have too low of a supply to act as an economic indicator because their values can swing wildly at the slightest rumor and stabilize at a price vastly different than before the swing. Items such as thick leather sections are at the other end of the scale, with their supply being so excessively high, combined with very little demand, creating a price that is so low it takes a very dedicated reason to induce any fluctuation of note (zephyr sanctum’s traders are practically the only thing). Because of that, they are not an economic indicator. Same reasons, but different results.
So think on it a bit. When JS says the economy is working, it’s because it is, not because he’s paid to say so. In fact, he’s paid to make sure it really is working as intended. So the way I see it, just because it’s not working as YOU intended, or think it should, doesnt mean there’s a problem. Which JS, or any others on his team, would watch for, find, fix, and watch for more problems, before you even have the thought of “I need to take a crap.”

Oh, and before I forget, you remember the numbers I gave for the amount of gold generated per day from dungeons? Even if it’s wrong by a few %, that’s a massive amount of gold Anet’s fighting to keep inflation in check. Seems like they’re doing a kitten good job.

I hate it when people decide to play games with words to deny inflation when we all see inflation happening.

Prices go up and own, but an across the board increase in prices (due to inadequate Gold sinks as one cause) is here and has been here ever since the patch one year ago that introduced champion bags.

Pick an index of Representative goods and track it and that will show you where inflation is happening. Money moves from one place to another all the time but a spread out index ought to tell you the whole truth.

Green Items – Way up since last year
White/Blue items – Way up since last year
Gems – Way up since last year
Ectos – Gradually moving up
Precursors – up since last year
Crafting Costs – Way up since last year (despite fewer people crafting)

Pick a representative index

nekretaal.6485:

I hate it when people decide to play games with words to deny inflation when we all see inflation happening.

Prices go up and own, but an across the board increase in prices (due to inadequate Gold sinks as one cause) is here and has been here ever since the patch one year ago that introduced champion bags.

Pick an index of Representative goods and track it and that will show you where inflation is happening. Money moves from one place to another all the time but a spread out index ought to tell you the whole truth.

Green Items – Way up since last year
White/Blue items – Way up since last year
Gems – Way up since last year
Ectos – Gradually moving up
Precursors – up since last year
Crafting Costs – Way up since last year (despite fewer people crafting)

Pick a representative index

No one ever said that inflation isnt happening, the fact that is disputed is if the inflation rate is a problem in GW2.

You also dont take the average gold earnings per day per player into consideration, so you possibly cant define the inflation rate.

nekretaal.6485:

I hate it when people decide to play games with words to deny inflation when we all see inflation happening.

Prices go up and own, but an across the board increase in prices (due to inadequate Gold sinks as one cause) is here and has been here ever since the patch one year ago that introduced champion bags.

Pick an index of Representative goods and track it and that will show you where inflation is happening. Money moves from one place to another all the time but a spread out index ought to tell you the whole truth.

Green Items – Way up since last year
White/Blue items – Way up since last year
Gems – Way up since last year
Ectos – Gradually moving up
Precursors – up since last year
Crafting Costs – Way up since last year (despite fewer people crafting)

Pick a representative index

Wow, that’s some intensive research you did there on price movements. Way to prove your point. :facepalm: