Guild Wars 2

https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/livingworld/fotfw/The-hidden-truth-about-the-Chaos-of-Lyssa/first#post4080172

Whenever someone blame flippers for expensive price, flippers of the forum will unite and tell them they are wrong.

Now, someone is blaming the price of Chaos of Lyssa on flippers.

Flippers of the forum unite and tell him flippers are awesome for the economy!

The item is extremely rare. You have seen those people who have opened 1000-2000 bags and didn’t get one. Nobody can predict what the price for that would be… It could be 5k or 1k gold… But it’s a fact that it’s extremely rare.

Are people flipping it? – Yeah I am sure.

Is this the cause of the high price? – I’m pretty sure it’s not. If it would be, why aren’t all items at 2k gold?

I think according to him his buy order can be fulfilled in 30 minutes and the events does run for 30 days. I’m not sure if that’s called rare.

Most of my other buy orders are fullfilled in 1 minutes during events.

coincidence…. I had one buy order for 1.5-1.7k open all day yesterday. But only when I placed an order for 2k I got it over night.

laokoko.7403:

I think according to him his buy order can be fulfilled in 30 minutes and the events does run for 30 days. I’m not sure if that’s called rare.

Most of my other buy orders are fullfilled in 1 minutes during events.

So if I put in a buy order for Dusk at 1s less than the lowest sell order, and it’s filled within ten minutes, that means precursors are not rare, right?

What is it about this forum that brings out all this misinformation?

tolunart.2095:

laokoko.7403:

I think according to him his buy order can be fulfilled in 30 minutes and the events does run for 30 days. I’m not sure if that’s called rare.

Most of my other buy orders are fullfilled in 1 minutes during events.

So if I put in a buy order for Dusk at 1s less than the lowest sell order, and it’s filled within ten minutes, that means precursors are not rare, right?

What is it about this forum that brings out all this misinformation?

I don’t know to be honest. If you mean consistently every 10 mimutes, that means at least 1728 dusk is generated every year. I dont’ know if that is rare.

Consider there will also be people mystic forge themself. I dont’ think that many dusk is generated everyday.

if everyone is holding to their chaos of lyssa and wait for high price to sell, the guy is probably right, flippers and investors are to blame right? That is the topic he is discussing.

No one is placing buy orders every 10 minutes to test consistency. So far as I can tell, in your example someone placed a single buy order, it was filled quickly, and on the basis of this single test he developed the hypothesis that the item was not rare. My example does the same with an item that is known to have a very low drop rate to demonstrate that this is hogwash.

What are they to blame for? Wanting to make a profit? It’s just a game, no one is going to starve to death if you don’t get your recipe today.

http://xkcd.com/605/

well, if you go back to the topic. The discussion is really about weather flippers/investors cause the high price. Or the drop rates are just too low.

I think that’s the discussion. I’m not sure if you actually said one way or another.

I think it’s a bit of both to me.

laokoko.7403:

https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/livingworld/fotfw/The-hidden-truth-about-the-Chaos-of-Lyssa/first#post4080172

Whenever someone blame flippers for expensive price, flippers of the forum will unite and tell them they are wrong.

Now, someone is blaming the price of Chaos of Lyssa on flippers.

Flippers of the forum unite and tell him flippers are awesome for the economy!

flippers dont cause the higher prices exactly, they just find out when the price could be higher.

Essentially a flipper can only sell an item if someone thinks its worth it, but its their business to push the limits of what is worth it. Without flippers, it would have been a long time before people could figure out how much someone is willing to pay for item.

basically in this game, flipper take advantage of impatience, irl, they usually take advantage of connections, and knowing who needs what and how valuable it could be to the right person.

So yeah, they dont make the value, but they push it so that it so that one finds the current price point faster. In general they raise the prices of items by doing so, but only to the limits that the market will allow.

laokoko.7403:

well, if you go back to the topic. The discussion is really about weather flippers/investors cause the high price. Or the drop rates are just too low.

I think that’s the discussion. I’m not sure if you actually said one way or another.

I think it’s a bit of both to me.

The game and everything in it is set up to be the way it is. Except for bugs, the game environment is a mixture of developer intent plus player reactions. Human nature is such that people want to display things that other people don’t have – a supermodel girlfriend, a rolex watch, the biggest fish at the lake, etc.

So the devs make rare items for people to go after, and if they are not rare then lots and lots of people have them, which makes them less desirable. If Rolex watches (the real ones, not the ones you buy from a guy on the Subway) cost $50, everyone would have them and they would not impress anyone more than a Timex.

So the rare items have to be rare, and because they are rare a lot of people want them. They keep throwing piles of money at them, and whoever has the biggest pile of money gets it. Because players know this will happen, those who are both smart and lucky hold on to the item until they think they can get the biggest pile of money. If the devs increase the drop rate, less people will want them and the piles of money they are willing to throw get smaller.

So it’s not a matter of blame, I’m just acknowledging that this is the way the game was set up. Personally, I don’t see much point in chasing after expensive items unless it’s something that I personally want. Whether I impress anyone else is irrelevant.

^ well, you sound like a politician or sells which really cares about not getting blamed.

i just take it as, it’s expensive because it is rare and anet intent it to be rare.

You understand perfectly.

tolunart.2095:

laokoko.7403:

I think according to him his buy order can be fulfilled in 30 minutes and the events does run for 30 days. I’m not sure if that’s called rare.

Most of my other buy orders are fullfilled in 1 minutes during events.

So if I put in a buy order for Dusk at 1s less than the lowest sell order, and it’s filled within ten minutes, that means precursors are not rare, right?

What is it about this forum that brings out all this misinformation?

I think it is just plain jealously.

If full time traders didn’t exist then their buy orders would fill for less. And to top it off they hear about all these stories of traders with hundreds of thousands of gold. So they come up with all these wild theories that don’t make any sense.

If you want to see misinformation you should check out his “GW2 TP is high risk” thread. I’ve never seen so much tin foil hat in once place.

I tried to read that thread, but gave up when my eyes started to bleed.

laokoko.7403:

well, if you go back to the topic. The discussion is really about weather flippers/investors cause the high price. Or the drop rates are just too low.

I think that’s the discussion. I’m not sure if you actually said one way or another.

I think it’s a bit of both to me.

Seems both of you are ignoring the more impactful hobby on prices: speculation.

Aidan Savage.2078:

laokoko.7403:

well, if you go back to the topic. The discussion is really about weather flippers/investors cause the high price. Or the drop rates are just too low.

I think that’s the discussion. I’m not sure if you actually said one way or another.

I think it’s a bit of both to me.

Seems both of you are ignoring the more impactful hobby on prices: speculation.

You sound like the people who keeps thinking people don’t understand what supply and demand is. Because basically everyone knows what supply and demand is, and the big picture is economic model is much more complex because there is too much to consider.

I’m pretty sure I know what speculation is. And the other guy probably do too. That’s why I mention flippers/investors in the sentence. And I said in the other thread, the price probably always going to be high in the end for limited items, flippers just make the price raise to its real value faster.

Speculation has an impact on the price because it means people are holding onto supply even despite the high demand. They’re waiting for the price to either be “right” for them or settle out so they dont feel they sold too early or too late.

Look at the toxic affect flippers had on tormented shield skins!

http://www.gw2tp.com/item/49344-tormented-shield-skin

Oh wait demand was less than supply so the price went down…

If you want to drive the price up you won’t do it by flipping, you will do it by hoarding and artificially strangling supply. In another post Vol talked about flipping it, and it was a pretty risky move on his part. If you want to drive the price up by hoarding the risk is magnified 100 times on the grounds that the drop rate could change at any time. We are not talking balls of steel here, we are talking balls made up of the material of a neutron star.

Players hanging on to an item in the hopes that it will go up will push up the current price, but with prices the way they are now I can’t see that there will be too many people thinking “I better grab that while it’s cheap!”

It’s an extremely rare item. If I got one I wouldn’t think of selling it.

Now if I got two, an extremely rare case I would but I have no frame of reference to set a price on it. If I post it for 100g and it sells instantly then I feel like I didn’t get it’s worth. If I posted for 1000g and it doesn’t sell, I wasted 50g to find that out. For whatever reason the tracking sites aren’t tracking this reliably so with no information I’m would sit on it.

People are flipping it because of the high amount of risk involved in holding/selling this item.

That is a result of the item’s rarity.

I don’t see anything controversial here.

Then again, I flipped this item as well.

Just add another way of getting the item at a consistent rate, anyone sitting on a stack of recipes to flip will be screwed, problem solved.

I wonder how many recipes are actually in circulation…

At least 2 dozen I’m sure.

If you mean actual drops

I would also love to see the stats on this.

Drop rate per hour, how many sold, how many destroyed (ie learned) and how many still unused. It would be a fascinating insight into player behaviour.

Aidan Savage.2078:

Speculation has an impact on the price because it means people are holding onto supply even despite the high demand. They’re waiting for the price to either be “right” for them or settle out so they dont feel they sold too early or too late.

So do you expect the price to drop shortly after the event is over “like the super greatsword”, and stay low for a long time, or do you expect it to sky rocket immediately.

I dont’ think people are stupid enough to not know what speculation is which is what you are getting at.

The big picture is are people just “speculating more” because scarlet kiss surely isn’t 2500 gold. Or does the item just “drop much less”.

That’s like the argument, Anet dont’ set the price, the players do. I’m sure everyone knows players set the price. But what I really want to ask those people is if Anet have no clue what the “price will be set at”, by market research.

I dont expect anything of the price. I’m not a speculator, nor too avid about buying the recipe in the first place (I lose money every time Anet puts out another outfit >_>’ ). I find the back item fuglier than a pile of dolyak kitten, and I’m perfectly happy with the Fervid Censer skin.

Second, speculation has a bigger impact on prices than just supply alone because speculators are hoarding recipes. They’re holding it for one of two reasons: to sell when the price peaks, or to sell when the prices cease to be as volatile as they’re expected to be in a fresh market.

Aidan Savage.2078:

I dont expect anything of the price. I’m not a speculator, nor too avid about buying the recipe in the first place (I lose money every time Anet puts out another outfit >_>’ ). I find the back item fuglier than a pile of dolyak kitten, and I’m perfectly happy with the Fervid Censer skin.

Second, speculation has a bigger impact on prices than just supply alone because speculators are hoarding recipes. They’re holding it for one of two reasons: to sell when the price peaks, or to sell when the prices cease to be as volatile as they’re expected to be in a fresh market.

yes there are hoarders hoarding item every patch. You dont’ need to keep mention that. I think the discussion is taken account into everything including the hoarders.

laokoko.7403:

But what I really want to ask those people is if Anet have no clue what the “price will be set at”, by market research.

I suspect Anet thought the Gauntlet would be far more popular than it has turned out to be. The droprate was probably set assuming a lot more people would be doing the Gauntlet.

Since there already is a thread on the topic, please continue the discussion there instead of creating new ones.

Thread closed.