Guild Wars 2

Bunda.2691:

Wanze.8410:

Of course the price is determined by the players who can afford it (and those who get a drop) but i think i just draw the line between normal players who accumulate their wealth through playing the game and players who accumulate their wealth through the TP alot higher than current precursor prices. I certainly dont think that just because someone can afford to buy a precursor on the tp, that that person is rich.

I might have an accumulated wealth as kitten0 of my regular guildmates together but that doesnt mean that i bought as much precursors and forged as much Legendaries as them combined. So they determine the price of them, not me.

Not necessarily. For an average person, a 25% increase in price of a one-time luxury purchase such as a precursor isn’t going to prevent them from buying it. Think of it like a Superbowl ticket. For the average fan, the price is well out of their budgetary price range, but many still splurge on the extravagance as a one-time purchase when, say, their team is in the game. For these fans, the difference between $1000 and $1250 is not a barrier to purchase. However, the $1250 price is a barrier to multiple purchases.

Now equate this this to a precursor. For many players, the precursor is also a one-time purchase, and thus they too will not be deterred if the price is a bit higher. Thus the price is less about what the average player will pay for it than it is about what the people who buy and sell it frequently will pay. And those who buy them frequently tend to be a) players who want to gear legendaries on multiple characters; b) those who craft legendaries for profit; c) those who can afford multiple legendaries; and d) speculators. All four of these categories are necessarily wealthier players, and I’d hazard a guess that they made most of that money on the TP, because it is the easiest way to do so.

Again, I have no problems with this, but it does help reveal how the existence of a 1%, to borrow the term from real life, does have an impact on high-end scarce goods.

How do you explain then that precursor prices have been stable for 6 months?

Rouven.7409:

New drops of Endless Mystery Tonics can be traded until they are used once.

Why?

https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/info/updates/Game-Update-Notes-January-21-2014/first#post3547016

So the supply of tradeable tonics doesnt increase steadily.

Wanze.8410:

So the supply of tradeable tonics doesnt increase steadily.

Seems to contradict John’s previous statement?

Seriously though, I’ve never seen a compelling argument that making TP items account bound would be anything but devastatingly bad for this game and its players. (…)

Wanze.8410:

Bunda.2691:

Wanze.8410:

Of course the price is determined by the players who can afford it (and those who get a drop) but i think i just draw the line between normal players who accumulate their wealth through playing the game and players who accumulate their wealth through the TP alot higher than current precursor prices. I certainly dont think that just because someone can afford to buy a precursor on the tp, that that person is rich.

I might have an accumulated wealth as kitten0 of my regular guildmates together but that doesnt mean that i bought as much precursors and forged as much Legendaries as them combined. So they determine the price of them, not me.

Not necessarily. For an average person, a 25% increase in price of a one-time luxury purchase such as a precursor isn’t going to prevent them from buying it. Think of it like a Superbowl ticket. For the average fan, the price is well out of their budgetary price range, but many still splurge on the extravagance as a one-time purchase when, say, their team is in the game. For these fans, the difference between $1000 and $1250 is not a barrier to purchase. However, the $1250 price is a barrier to multiple purchases.

Now equate this this to a precursor. For many players, the precursor is also a one-time purchase, and thus they too will not be deterred if the price is a bit higher. Thus the price is less about what the average player will pay for it than it is about what the people who buy and sell it frequently will pay. And those who buy them frequently tend to be a) players who want to gear legendaries on multiple characters; b) those who craft legendaries for profit; c) those who can afford multiple legendaries; and d) speculators. All four of these categories are necessarily wealthier players, and I’d hazard a guess that they made most of that money on the TP, because it is the easiest way to do so.

Again, I have no problems with this, but it does help reveal how the existence of a 1%, to borrow the term from real life, does have an impact on high-end scarce goods.

How do you explain then that precursor prices have been stable for 6 months?

Just because the price isn’t increasing doesn’t mean that it isn’t inflated. Compare it to something like a bottle of Cristal. The price has not increased over the past five years, but the price remains high because of scarcity (real or artificial) and the ability/desire of the wealthy to purchase it regularly.

My point is that if you got rid of the wealthiest 1% of players, or if you capped the amount of gold you could possess, you’d likely see the prices of precursors decrease. Same thing with Cristal.

Rouven.7409:

Wanze.8410:

So the supply of tradeable tonics doesnt increase steadily.

Seems to contradict John’s previous statement?

Seriously though, I’ve never seen a compelling argument that making TP items account bound would be anything but devastatingly bad for this game and its players. (…)

His statement was directed at the suggestion to make any tradeable item account bound after it was sold once on the tp. You can still trade the mystic tonics after you bought it on the tp, as long as you dont bind it by using it.

Wanze.8410:

His statement was directed at the suggestion to make any tradeable item account bound after it was sold once on the tp. You can still trade the mystic tonics after you bought it on the tp, as long as you dont bind it by using it.

Okidoki, streamline and apply the same mechanic to any other similar item. Minis for example.

CrossedHorse.4261:

Anyone who buys almost anything on the TP is buying into the system where it is possible to flip prices etc. There isn’t strictly anything wrong with that - if people genuinely think this is a moral issue, then I hope they also don’t buy anything irl from supermarkets or any store where a third party middle-man is involved in the purchase of the products.

News-flash: Videogames are NOT real life.

In real life you don’t have infinite resources, can’t have infinite supply of everything or complete control over every single economic variable.

Begs the question how close a game like this should mimic real life, or a real life “economy”.

Bunda.2691:

Wanze.8410:

Bunda.2691:

Wanze.8410:

Of course the price is determined by the players who can afford it (and those who get a drop) but i think i just draw the line between normal players who accumulate their wealth through playing the game and players who accumulate their wealth through the TP alot higher than current precursor prices. I certainly dont think that just because someone can afford to buy a precursor on the tp, that that person is rich.

I might have an accumulated wealth as kitten0 of my regular guildmates together but that doesnt mean that i bought as much precursors and forged as much Legendaries as them combined. So they determine the price of them, not me.

Not necessarily. For an average person, a 25% increase in price of a one-time luxury purchase such as a precursor isn’t going to prevent them from buying it. Think of it like a Superbowl ticket. For the average fan, the price is well out of their budgetary price range, but many still splurge on the extravagance as a one-time purchase when, say, their team is in the game. For these fans, the difference between $1000 and $1250 is not a barrier to purchase. However, the $1250 price is a barrier to multiple purchases.

Now equate this this to a precursor. For many players, the precursor is also a one-time purchase, and thus they too will not be deterred if the price is a bit higher. Thus the price is less about what the average player will pay for it than it is about what the people who buy and sell it frequently will pay. And those who buy them frequently tend to be a) players who want to gear legendaries on multiple characters; b) those who craft legendaries for profit; c) those who can afford multiple legendaries; and d) speculators. All four of these categories are necessarily wealthier players, and I’d hazard a guess that they made most of that money on the TP, because it is the easiest way to do so.

Again, I have no problems with this, but it does help reveal how the existence of a 1%, to borrow the term from real life, does have an impact on high-end scarce goods.

How do you explain then that precursor prices have been stable for 6 months?

Just because the price isn’t increasing doesn’t mean that it isn’t inflated. Compare it to something like a bottle of Cristal. The price has not increased over the past five years, but the price remains high because of scarcity (real or artificial) and the ability of the wealthy to purchase it regularly.

My point is that if you got rid of the wealthiest 1% of players, or if you capped the amount of gold you could possess, you’d likely see the prices of precursors decrease. Same thing with Cristal.

Do you really think the wealthy 1% buy and sell more precursors than 99% of the player base? They might buy more individually than Average Joe but even if they buy 5 in the same time as Average Joe buys 1, they would still only make up 5% of the market., marginalizing their impact. Lower Precursor prices would also result in lower income for average players from random precursors.

I have no idea how the ratio is of precursors being forged and dropped from loot is but i think that their buy order prices actually reflect the average gold you have to invest into exotic weapons to throw into the forge to get one.

Rouven.7409:

Begs the question how close a game like this should mimic real life, or a real life "economy".

It shouldn’t, anyone that thinks differently should go back to economy 101 and check what the definition and purpose of economics are in the first place.

But the introduction of gems means in-game gold is effectively real world currency and that makes them able to monetize in-game elements without putting a visible pricetag on them.

That’s not a game design decision, it’s a financial one.

Rouven.7409:

Wanze.8410:

His statement was directed at the suggestion to make any tradeable item account bound after it was sold once on the tp. You can still trade the mystic tonics after you bought it on the tp, as long as you dont bind it by using it.

Okidoki, streamline and apply the same mechanic to any other similar item. Minis for example.

for Minis, I actually agree with you that they should be account bound once used but i think its a technical issue because they stack inside your collectible tab, so it will be hard for the system to recognize, which minis are in the same stack are bound and which not. The only way to work around that would be limiting their stacksize inside the tab to 1.

Bunda.2691:

Again, I have no problems with this, but it does help reveal how the existence of a 1%, to borrow the term from real life, does have an impact on high-end scarce goods.

Except without the 99% who consume said items, the price would fall and fall and fall some more as supply outstrips demand. Flippers don’t consume anything (pretty much by definition), so they don’t sink items. If items are still being added to the system the price will fall until such a point where consumers start using them.

The price of precursors are set by the people using them, not the people flipping them. If a flipper puts the price above that which consumers will pay, the demand will drop and supply will fill the gap.

Spiuk.8421:

Rouven.7409:

Begs the question how close a game like this should mimic real life, or a real life “economy”.

It shouldn’t, anyone that thinks differently should go back to economy 101 and check what the definition and purpose of economics are in the first place.

But the introduction of gems means in-game gold is effectively real world currency and that makes them able to monetize in-game elements without putting a visible pricetag on them.

This, to me, is a huge moral issue. If MGM set up an online game where you could pay real money and play a slot machine called the “magic forge” that gave people a chance at getting something out of it that was worth more money than they paid in, it would be illegal by current internet law, yet Anet and other companies do exactly that, and, on top of it, guarantee that you’ll never get anything of value back (because the money exchange only works one way into a closed system).

Neural.1824:

This, to me, is a huge moral issue. If MGM set up an online game where you could pay real money and play a slot machine called the “magic forge” that gave people a chance at getting something out of it that was worth more money than they paid in, it would be illegal by current internet law, yet Anet and other companies do exactly that, and, on top of it, guarantee that you’ll never get anything of value back (because the money exchange only works one way into a closed system).

The bold part is why the ArenaNet system is not illegal.

John Smith.4610:

Seriously though, I’ve never seen a compelling argument that making TP items account bound would be anything but devastatingly bad for this game and its players. There are of course many biases in any setting, especially a forum setting, but you know that my goal is to make the best possible game.

Any comment on the following purely optional system?

To a Good Home
Add a check box when posting items that indicate the item must be sold to “a good home”. When purchased via TP this item becomes account bound. For items that stack it is place in a separate stack that combines only with similar account bound items.

When buying via TP a check box allows ‘to a good home’ items to be viewed (the default would be to filter them out. the check box is to opt in to see them). This way customers are less likely to accidentally buy something they cannot re-sell/flip.

• People selling in ‘to a good home’ mode should expect to get less money for their items – after all, the only people who can buy them are people who intend to actually use them. But they also get the knowledge that their goods are not being juggled for profit.
• For buyers who intend to use the item it creates a parallel market with lower price and a direct from initial seller relationship.
• For flippers it moves a percentage of their market into a parallel track. Then we find out if the people actually harvesting/getting the initial drop really care about the so called “service”… Do they want to sell fast to the broadest liquidity, or slower to people who will use what they are buying?

While I don’t think making TP items account bound is the answer. I think the TP has a huge perception problem among the player base. Someone should probably consider how to change that.

Wanze.8410:

Do you really think the wealthy 1% buy and sell more precursors than 99% of the player base? They might buy more individually than Average Joe but even if they buy 5 in the same time as Average Joe buys 1, they would still only make up 5% of the market., marginalizing their impact. Lower Precursor prices would also result in lower income for average players from random precursors.

I have no idea how the ratio is of precursors being forged and dropped from loot is but i think that their buy order prices actually reflect the average gold you have to invest into exotic weapons to throw into the forge to get one.

I don’t know, but I’d hazard a guess that a substantial amount of players buying and selling precursors are in the top wealth percentiles. I make this assumption because a) precursors are expensive, and b) crafting/forging precursors is expensive.

Moreover, all it takes is a small number of wealthy players active in such a small market to influence the price. I’m not saying that this is bad, nor is it manipulation, but merely a truism. High amounts of disposable wealth + scarce and limited luxury items = an inflated price for said items.

Imperatora.7654:

Bunda.2691:

Again, I have no problems with this, but it does help reveal how the existence of a 1%, to borrow the term from real life, does have an impact on high-end scarce goods.

Except without the 99% who consume said items, the price would fall and fall and fall some more as supply outstrips demand. Flippers don’t consume anything (pretty much by definition), so they don’t sink items. If items are still being added to the system the price will fall until such a point where consumers start using them.

The price of precursors are set by the people using them, not the people flipping them. If a flipper puts the price above that which consumers will pay, the demand will drop and supply will fill the gap.

This may be the case for mats, but not for precursors. There is no way that 99% of the population is consuming precursors, just like 99% of the population is not consuming Cristal or other high-end goods. As a result, the market is created by those buying and selling the item. In the case of precursors, this is inherently the wealthier players, by simple virtue of the fact that precursors are rare and expensive. And this submarket is generally inaccessible to the majority of players. Sure, someone might get a lucky drop, just as someone in real life may win the lottery, but these occurrences have little impact on the market for top-shelf goods.

My point is simply that there is a built-in markup in the price of precursors that is in part affected by the prevalence of wealthy players with disposable gold. That’s it. I’m not offering my opinion on this, but I do understand those who are frustrated because they feel as if the market is inaccessible to them, just as, say, the market for vintage Italian cars is inaccessible to most people in real life.

Bunda.2691:

Wanze.8410:

Do you really think the wealthy 1% buy and sell more precursors than 99% of the player base? They might buy more individually than Average Joe but even if they buy 5 in the same time as Average Joe buys 1, they would still only make up 5% of the market., marginalizing their impact. Lower Precursor prices would also result in lower income for average players from random precursors.

I have no idea how the ratio is of precursors being forged and dropped from loot is but i think that their buy order prices actually reflect the average gold you have to invest into exotic weapons to throw into the forge to get one.

I don’t know, but I’d hazard a guess that a substantial amount of players buying and selling precursors are in the top wealth percentiles. I make this assumption because a) precursors are expensive, and b) crafting/forging precursors is expensive.

Moreover, all it takes is a small number of wealthy players active in such a small market to influence the price. I’m not saying that this is bad, nor is it manipulation, but merely a truism. High amounts of disposable wealth + scarce and limited luxury items = an inflated price for said items.

And this is where we have different perceptions of the market and wealth distribution (which is fine by me, as neither of us will be able to prove he is right). I dont think the amount of precursors bought by wealthy players is substancial enough to make an impact. Just because i might make 10 times more gold per day than the guy next to me who works on his 1st Legendary, doesnt mean i feel the same dire need to craft 10 just because i can afford it.

And i dont think the market for precursors is that small. Just because there are only 30 dusks posted, doesnt mean there arent more unbound dusks in peoples inventory. In fact, for most items, the supply posted on the tp is just a tiny percentage of the supply in players inventories/Banks/collectible tabs.

Its also hard to say for us, how much of each item actually got sold each day because spidy for example only shows the average supply per day available on the tp. So if there were 30 available yesterday, 30 got sold and 30 new ones posted, it would not show any variance in supply.

So the velocity of the market is actually higher than most of us think.

John Smith posted in another topic that within 24 hours, 9 Twilights have sold while the supply was more or less constant between 6-9. And the higher the volume and velocity of an item on the tp, the higher the ratio of items traded per day compared to the stock on the tp. This makes us believe the market is actually smaller than it really is.

Nike.2631:

John Smith.4610:

Seriously though, I’ve never seen a compelling argument that making TP items account bound would be anything but devastatingly bad for this game and its players. There are of course many biases in any setting, especially a forum setting, but you know that my goal is to make the best possible game.

Any comment on the following purely optional system?

To a Good Home
Add a check box when posting items that indicate the item must be sold to “a good home”. When purchased via TP this item becomes account bound. For items that stack it is place in a separate stack that combines only with similar account bound items.

When buying via TP a check box allows ‘to a good home’ items to be viewed (the default would be to filter them out. the check box is to opt in to see them). This way customers are less likely to accidentally buy something they cannot re-sell/flip.

• People selling in ‘to a good home’ mode should expect to get less money for their items – after all, the only people who can buy them are people who intend to actually use them. But they also get the knowledge that their goods are not being juggled for profit.
• For buyers who intend to use the item it creates a parallel market with lower price and a direct from initial seller relationship.
• For flippers it moves a percentage of their market into a parallel track. Then we find out if the people actually harvesting/getting the initial drop really care about the so called “service”… Do they want to sell fast to the broadest liquidity, or slower to people who will use what they are buying?

First of all, this is way too complicated to implement (2 stacks of each item). Then i dont see who benefits from it. It wont ban flippers or speculators from the game, if that is your intent. And for any crafting material, it would still give me the possibility to craft something out of it to turn a profit.

Point 2:
As transactions would still be anonymous, no relationship will be established between buyer and seller.

Point 3: If you care about your item not being bought by flippers/speculators, just post a sell listing and dont sell to the highest bidder. That way, most of the time, it wont be bought by a flipper/speculator.

Just because you seem to have moral issues with selling your stuff to someone who benefits from it by flipping, speculating, this is an awfully complicated system and i dont think it will be frequently used. Most people that sell their loot to the highest bidder do so because they want a quick gold return, they wont sell it for even less while having to even do one more click to check the good home box.

I’ve actually had a TP item turn account bound. It sucked. (I was trying to flip it)
I believe it was the Mad King’s Slippers… Basically: the item was tradable and there was a big spread on buy/sell listings so I bought one and posted it as a sell listing, then they updated it so you could select the stats, so the one I had listed on the TP was returned to me as account-bound.

Mystic.5934:

I’ve actually had a TP item turn account bound. It sucked. (I was trying to flip it)
I believe it was the Mad King’s Slippers… Basically: the item was tradable and there was a big spread on buy/sell listings so I bought one and posted it as a sell listing, then they updated it so you could select the stats, so the one I had listed on the TP was returned to me as account-bound.

I had a boatload of Magic Find gear do that as well.

Wanze.8410:

Nike.2631:

To a Good Home

First of all, this is way too complicated to implement (2 stacks of each item).

Fortunately we have these things called computers to handle minor bookkeeping, and second the WHOLE POINT is that if you buy it this way you intend to use it, not sit on it .

Then i dont see who benefits from it. It wont ban flippers or speculators from the game, if that is your intent.

Its not, and it never was – it’s to create competitive pressure, to introduce a class of sellers whom you cannot simply buy-out to eliminate their offers.

And for any crafting material, it would still give me the possibility to craft something out of it to turn a profit.

That is also deliberate. It provides incentive to move items through the production cycle, buying cheaper to a good home materials to sell in a more refined state.

As transactions would still be anonymous, no relationship will be established between buyer and seller.

The sale itself is the relationship. It not to start up being pen pals .

If you care about your item not being bought by flippers/speculators, just post a sell listing and dont sell to the highest bidder. That way, most of the time, it wont be bought by a flipper/speculator.

There is a world of difference between “most of the time” and “never”. Further it adds an additional check against market manipulation.

Just because you seem to have moral issues with selling your stuff to someone who benefits from it by flipping, speculating, this is an awfully complicated system and i dont think it will be frequently used.

You and I have very different scales if you consider a pair of check boxes “awfully complicated” .

Most people that sell their loot to the highest bidder do so because they want a quick gold return, they wont sell it for even less while having to even do one more click to check the good home box.

To a Good Home is not intended to serve “most people”. It’s intended to provide options so the Trading Post can better serve more people than it does now. If you don’t approve of economic PvP, your options are relent or not participate at all. This provides at least a little bit of a middle ground.

Wanze.8410:

I have no idea how the ratio is of precursors being forged and dropped from loot is but i think that their buy order prices actually reflect the average gold you have to invest into exotic weapons to throw into the forge to get one.

I used to be pretty involved in forging precursors to sell, and I can say that the margins on doing so have collapsed – a year ago there was nearly a 70% return on investment from throwing rares into the forge to get a precursor, now you’re lucky to get 20%. Between the amount of time it takes to craft and forge everything up and the amount of risk you’re taking I think that margin is about right.

The price has been stable because of increased competition in that market as it became more widely understood. Supply has increased to meet demand at their (relatively stable) prices, and precursors have become more accessible as the T5 materials that go into the forge process have had their price pushed up by increased competition for those resources.

As much as people like to point at precursors as a dysfunctional market full of manipulation, my experience is that it’s nothing of the sort – it’s a very efficient, rational market with prices that reflect fundamentals.

Nike.2631:

Any comment on the following purely optional system?

It would be an enormous amount of work for something that would have a very minimal impact on the game.

Ensign.2189:

As much as people like to point at precursors as a dysfunctional market full of manipulation, my experience is that it’s nothing of the sort – it’s a very efficient, rational market with prices that reflect fundamentals.

I completely agree, and nothing I’ve said previously is meant to convey anything but. All I’ve said is that when looking at the price of high-demand, low supply luxury items, a higher percentage of the price is inflated by a small percentage of the player base than for most other goods. After all, part of having a legendary is displaying to others your wealth or grinding time (which is really just another form of wealth).

Ensign.2189:

Wanze.8410:

I have no idea how the ratio is of precursors being forged and dropped from loot is but i think that their buy order prices actually reflect the average gold you have to invest into exotic weapons to throw into the forge to get one.

I used to be pretty involved in forging precursors to sell, and I can say that the margins on doing so have collapsed – a year ago there was nearly a 70% return on investment from throwing rares into the forge to get a precursor, now you’re lucky to get 20%. Between the amount of time it takes to craft and forge everything up and the amount of risk you’re taking I think that margin is about right.

The price has been stable because of increased competition in that market as it became more widely understood. Supply has increased to meet demand at their (relatively stable) prices, and precursors have become more accessible as the T5 materials that go into the forge process have had their price pushed up by increased competition for those resources.

As much as people like to point at precursors as a dysfunctional market full of manipulation, my experience is that it’s nothing of the sort – it’s a very efficient, rational market with prices that reflect fundamentals.

Yeah, i think youre right, i was one step in front of you in the supply chain, crafting thousands of rare greatswords every week (usually i got the inscriptions itself on buy order rather than crafting them myself to maximise profit). I guess the 20% profit margin now is based on listing them instead of selling directly?

Crafting rares also got more competitive these days and i make more profit elsewhere with less effort, so im out of it, even though i check occasionally.

Wanze.8410:

And this is where we have different perceptions of the market and wealth distribution (which is fine by me, as neither of us ill be able to prove he is right). I dont think the amount of precursors bought by wealthy players is substancial enough to make an impact. Just because i might make 10 times more gold per day than the guy next to me who works on his 1st Legendary, doesnt mean i feel the same dire need to craft 10 just because i can afford it.

This still ignores the fact that crafting a legendary is very expensive (in both gold and/or time, which are basically the same thing). What percentage of the player base do you really think has the time/gold/gems to acquire one? It has to be quite small.

Bunda.2691:

Ensign.2189:

As much as people like to point at precursors as a dysfunctional market full of manipulation, my experience is that it’s nothing of the sort – it’s a very efficient, rational market with prices that reflect fundamentals.

I completely agree, and nothing I’ve said previously is meant to convey anything but. All I’ve said is that when looking at the price of high-demand, low supply luxury items, a higher percentage of the price is inflated by a small percentage of the player base than for most other goods. After all, part of having a legendary is displaying to others your wealth or grinding time (which is really just another form of wealth).

I dont know about other TP players but alot of my profit comes from high velocity markets, not low supply luxury items.

Wanze.8410:

Bunda.2691:

Ensign.2189:

As much as people like to point at precursors as a dysfunctional market full of manipulation, my experience is that it’s nothing of the sort – it’s a very efficient, rational market with prices that reflect fundamentals.

I completely agree, and nothing I’ve said previously is meant to convey anything but. All I’ve said is that when looking at the price of high-demand, low supply luxury items, a higher percentage of the price is inflated by a small percentage of the player base than for most other goods. After all, part of having a legendary is displaying to others your wealth or grinding time (which is really just another form of wealth).

I dont know about other TP players but alot of my profit comes from high velocity markets, not low supply luxury items.

That’s a completely separate issue. All I’m talking about is the portion of the price that is driven by high-wealth players. Think Manhattan penthouses, first class airline tickets, and expensive bottles of wine; legendaries are the same thing.

Bunda.2691:

Wanze.8410:

And this is where we have different perceptions of the market and wealth distribution (which is fine by me, as neither of us will be able to prove he is right). I dont think the amount of precursors bought by wealthy players is substancial enough to make an impact. Just because i might make 10 times more gold per day than the guy next to me who works on his 1st Legendary, doesnt mean i feel the same dire need to craft 10 just because i can afford it.

This still ignores the fact that crafting a legendary is very expensive (in both gild and/or time, which are basically the same thing). What percentage of the players do you really think has the time/gold/gems to acquire one? It has to be quite small.

You are right but you are arguing my point towards the impact of wealthy players on the price of pre cursors.

Even though I have some alts at lvl 80, I mostly use them for crafting (and lvled them that way) or storage. I have done world Completion once on my main, so i can craft 2 Legendaries myself. After my 2nd precursor, i feel less inclined to buy a 3rd one because i would have to do world completion again for the gift of exploration. I dont have a problem with buying all the tradeable mats for crafting multiple Legendaries and i have enough karma as well for a couple of Leggies because im quite active in wvw and do the LS metas.
I do dungeon runs occasionally to help out guildies or to get some shards for vision crystals and wouldnt have a problem to grind the dungeon tokens neccessary to craft a 3rd or 4th Legendary but map exploration on an alt would seriously put me off crafting my 3rd/4th Legendary myself. So my impact on the precursor prices as a wealthy player is zip, as i never bought or sold one myself, while my guild of around 50 active members bought and sold dozens of them.

unless you define anyone and everyone who can afford a precursor as “high-wealth” you are wrong.

As I said above, flippers, by themselves, create nothing and consume nothing (in terms of items, there is a gold sink but we aren’t talking about that). Flipping an item does not in any way affect supply, there are still the exact same number of items in the system as there was before.

A flipper increasing the price of items bring the market closer to equilibrium. If the market will bare their new price, they win… if they overshoot the incoming supply will undercut them and their items will not move at the new price.

the only group that can drive that consumption up to the higher price are those buying items to use them, not to flip them. If flippers can’t find enough consumers (not other flippers) at the higher price it will eventually fall as supply will outstrip demand (at the high price).

Flipping without consumers is the very definition of a bubble economy, it can hold true in the short term (and with the trading velocity of GW2, that’s really short), but it can’t last. Sooner or later, someone has to use it, and if the users won’t buy it the supply will simply build and build until the price lowers to the point that they will.

Wanze.8410:

Bunda.2691:

Wanze.8410:

And this is where we have different perceptions of the market and wealth distribution (which is fine by me, as neither of us will be able to prove he is right). I dont think the amount of precursors bought by wealthy players is substancial enough to make an impact. Just because i might make 10 times more gold per day than the guy next to me who works on his 1st Legendary, doesnt mean i feel the same dire need to craft 10 just because i can afford it.

This still ignores the fact that crafting a legendary is very expensive (in both gild and/or time, which are basically the same thing). What percentage of the players do you really think has the time/gold/gems to acquire one? It has to be quite small.

You are right but you are arguing my point towards the impact of wealthy players on the price of pre cursors.

Even though I have some alts at lvl 80, I mostly use them for crafting (and lvled them that way) or storage. I have done world Completion once on my main, so i can craft 2 Legendaries myself. After my 2nd precursor, i feel less inclined to buy a 3rd one because i would have to do world completion again for the gift of exploration. I dont have a problem with buying all the tradeable mats for crafting multiple Legendaries and i have enough karma as well for a couple of Leggies because im quite active in wvw and do the LS metas.
I do dungeon runs occasionally to help out guildies or to get some shards for vision crystals and wouldnt have a problem to grind the dungeon tokens neccessary to craft a 3rd or 4th Legendary but map exploration on an alt would seriously put me off crafting my 3rd/4th Legendary myself. So my impact on the precursor prices as a wealthy player is zip, as i never bought or sold one myself, while my guild of around 50 active members bought and sold dozens of them.

Just be careful basing your assumptions on personal and anecdotal experience. The majority of players simply don’t have the gold or time to acquire a legendary. Part (but not all) of the reason is the high cost of the precursor, which doesn’t simply track the availability. For example, notice how the price of dusk didn’t really decrease when GS forging became popular. Rather, the price of rare greatswords increased. So the price of the precursor is determined by factors other than the cost of its mats. One of those factors is luxury-good demand, which is driven by disposable wealth.

@OP
As much as your idea might seem like a solution, I expect that the outcome you are hoping for, which is lower prices and equitable wealth distribution by removing TP traders, is not likely to happen. TP flippers create both demand and supply, removing them from the market will only establish lower demand and lower supply.

There are a number of types of items that are purchased and consumed where supply and demand would not be greatly impacted by a change like this (dyes, item bags). There are number of items that are used in crafting in which little to no impact would be seen (ore, wood, cloth). There are a number of items that can be salvaged where little impact would be seen (armor, weapons).

There are two areas where this could actually modify prices: consumers that buy an item and then want to resell it, intact, and those that buy items to give away. I understand this is directed mostly at higher end items, but it would impact lower items as well.

Example 1: 8, 10, 12 slot bags.
Useful when leveling characters because they are cheap, however with no way to resell, it is more efficient to buy one 15 to 20 slot bag and add more as the character is leveled since it is now more or less permanent. Less demand, lower prices. With lower prices, it is less likely that it will be crafted, which reduces supply. Lower supply, higher prices. It is difficult to know exactly where the market would equalize.

Example 2: food, potions
Less will be purchased because you can’t resell what you don’t use. You can’t even buy to give away anymore. Less demand, lower prices. (more annoyance too since numerous people in large events buy and give away consumables for buffs). It is also less likely that it would be crafted since little food is profitable. Less supply, higher prices. Again, unpredictable where it would level.

Example 3: Mini pets
Supply will decrease because people can’t resell from inventory if they buy it from the TP. Demand would be unlikely to change much because people would still want them for throwing in the forge and collecting. Supply decreasing means increasing prices. Since there are two ways to get minis: gems and forge, an increase in the price will further reduce supple as they are forged to sell at higher prices. Since it takes four to make one, the supply will diminish where the price will be higher than where it is currently.

Example 4: precursors
There are two ways, currently, of adding to the supply: forge and lucky drops. Lucky drops will still happen. They will still be forged. Supply will be based on the profitablity of forging. The rule is that price should remain unchanged as long as supply and demand remain unchanged.

However, I would actually expect supply to decrease (artificially, or not) and prices to increase. Why? The people that can afford to create a precursor in the forge have already accumulated their wealth. They can still create precursors because they can afford it. Those that are making them for a profit have a smaller equalizer. The spread between the sell orders and buy orders will increase because few are undercutting the sell orders. The buy orders will still go up incrementally as people outbid each other trying to get someone to sell to them. Those that are forging for a profit will be able to hold on to it longer because the price will only increase as people buy precursors that can’t be resold.

Direct flipping is time consuming, highly risky, and easy to get around if it is no longer an option. There will still be people that make money using the TP, just in ways that aren’t covered in this proposal.

Also, if the disparity of wealth is an issue, it will not make it more difficult for wealthy players to gain wealth, only make it more difficult for everyone else.

John Smith.4610:

PS any flipper that’s attempting to make money on luxury items isn’t good at flipping. It’s a slow, dangerous, rarely-profitable way to attempt to make money (that’s why nobody does it).

This is something that a lot of people miss when they blame the precursor market for things. The speed at which things trade is a major factor.

A lack of gold pulled me into flipping, but seeing just how fast the market moved in some areas got me hooked on it.

When you find the right market, it’s hard to keep that little red exclamation point icon from showing up.

John Smith.4610:

There’s a lot to say about this idea. I like that you’re attempting to find a reasonable solution, but the one of the biggest problems is that nobody would do it.

Well, that broad statement I can immediately disprove: I would do it.

And I think you’re underestimating the number of folks who play this game not as two-legged fiscal sharks, but relatively sedate social animals who would be perfectly happy to pass on specialized drops at a ‘token price’ as long as they knew the other person actually wanted it and didn’t just see them as a altruistic sucker in need of a good fleecing.

Secondly, (this has been said) if you want your item to not be flipped, actually sell it at what it’s worth.

I may not care what it’s worth, but rather want it to get used. Dye is a good example of something in this class. In my guild people regularly announce when they got a dye drop and just mail it to whoever says "ooo, me!’ the fastest. This idea allows that behavior to be executed automatically across a far larger range of users, while setting a token price, and protecting it against predation.

Sometimes it’s sound economic behavior to increase the general level of happiness and in turn reduce the rate at which people abandon the system.

In the end, this is a very hard to explain, very hard to implement, very complicated solution to a “problem” that can be solved by just selling items at the correct price.

The language is carefully chosen because its not that hard to explain – people don’t sell kittens (the animal, not the word filter ), they try to find them “a good home” where they’ll be cherished, not exploited for their economic value.

It’s a good system and it works very well, forcing people to not trade they way they want to wouldn’t be better, it would be much worse. (not that your suggestion is forcing people, this is just a general comment)

I’ve tried to arrange things so that the tension between the two tracks serves them both. And the interplay between them could actually accelerate use of the larger system because it introduced margins between material and product that only a crafter can benefit from. It gives a very difficult role greater opportunity to serve as a ‘value adder’.

Thank you for your replies – I’ve pitched it twice previously and was never entirely certain you had seen it. I have no demands that it be implemented, just the desire to be certain it had been considered .

It’s depressing. Gw2 has such a great economy and yet there are countless idiots thinking they would somehow be ripped of by evil mastermind capitalists.
For the record: Buying something and reselling it has nothing to do with “market manipulation”. Even with items which have a finite number of supply, people wanting to buy that item will be better off with people hoarding them as they will benefit from a lower price due to items constanly being listed.

John Smith.4610:

PS any flipper that’s attempting to make money on luxury items isn’t good at flipping. It’s a slow, dangerous, rarely-profitable way to attempt to make money (that’s why nobody does it).

Wanze.8410:

I dont know about other TP players but alot of my profit comes from high velocity markets, not low supply luxury items.

As i mentioned earlier, i completely agree with this. In general, i dont really like pure flipping for profit, even though i do it sometimes, in order to gain some quick cash, after I invested a bunch of gold in long term investments.
To give people a little insight on trading, i have some advice in general:
Personally, i seperate 2 terms of flipping, long term and short term. Short term is something i instantly post again, once my buy order filled, undercutting the lowest listing by a copper (or adding to my lowest listing, if i am sure that it will sell within a week a for that price).
I dont really like this kind of flipping because it doesnt need alot of knowledge to do it, even though a good understanding of the market of the item youre flipping gives you an advantage.

Long term flipping in my terms is buying something that i think will rise in value in a couple of weeks or months. This usually means i have to store that item for a good amount of time, which takes storage space because i dont want to immediately post the item again at 5 times the price that its currently worth. That has the advantage that other people are not aware of how much of this item i have in store and i can observe the price rising and sell at the price i want to, once its reached, without people knowing the actual inventoried supply of the item. Of course, this takes up a good amount of storage space but usually yields more profit than short term flipping with alot less effort in terms of clicking to buy and sell constantly on the tp.
Usually this kind of trading is referred to “speculation” on these forums and i quite agree with this term.

John Smith.4610:

PS any flipper that’s attempting to make money on luxury items isn’t good at flipping. It’s a slow, dangerous, rarely-profitable way to attempt to make money (that’s why nobody does it).

Wanze.8410:

I dont know about other TP players but alot of my profit comes from high velocity markets, not low supply luxury items.

It can yield alot of profit with little effort, if you have the right resources (lots of gold to spare to spread your investment portfolio and lots of storage space, which needs requires lots of gold to buy influence to expand storage guild space or gems to expand bag and bank space). It also takes a good amount of knowledge about the game and its different mechanics and update schemes. For people not involved in it, it might look like easy gold but it involves alot of research and knowledge about future updates in general to maximise your profit and always carries a risk of it not going as planned because Anet implemented a feature, loot table, farm or nerf, that you didnt expect. Speculation is mostly centered around items that stop dropping due to updates. A good example of that were celestial recipes after the bazaar and sentinel inscriptions/insignias during the Molten Alliance LS. Their value increased between 1000-10000% until they got reintroduced without a warning (guild commendations for sentinel insignias/inscriptions as well as an increased droprate of exotic sentinel armor and weapons to salvage those from during escape from LA as well as drops for celestial recipes from the ultimate citizens rescue bag).

Then there is the possibility of making profit by altering items by crafting, forging, consuming or salvaging in order to increase its initial value. This is where the mayority of my profits on a daily basis come from and also requires alot of research and experience.

Making profit with crafting requires you to have the right profession at the right lvl. Most notably and common for making profit with crafting are ascneded crafting mats and rare lvl 80 weapons for others to throw into the mystic forge, as those are high velocity markets. Knowing recipes without looking it up (master crafter without a guide ftw) gives you a great advantage of deciding what mats to buy (do i buy t5 common and fine mats on buy order or do i put in buy orders for the inscription itself? is it cheaper right now to buy mithril ingots, ore, or greatsword blades and hilts).

Forging is another good way of making gold. I know that people call it the mystic toilet because they flushed so much value down the drain but for me it has ever been a source of profit. Be it crafting rare greatswords for others to test the rng behind it or playing the rng myself. The downside of it is that it takes alot of time clicking, forging 4 items at a time in order to do enough forges to beat rng for a profit. It doesnt matter if you go for precursors, runes/sigils or silver doubloons.
I always saw it as a chore, all the clicking, even though i went out of it nearly every time with a profit, as long as my sample size was big enough.
I usually drank a Bottle of Elonian wine, when they were still consumables, wasting 25-30s, just to give an offering to Zomorros to bless me with with good rng. I cant tell you, if that affected rng positively but i always came out on top. These days, i just use Mini Evon Gnashblade for good luck. On a sidenote, I still believe that LA would still stand strong and you would be a little richer, if you voted Evon into the Council.

Salvaging is a great way to make gold on a daily basis, there are alot of items, weapons, armor and trinkets, which give you a good amount of profit as long as you know the average salvage rates for ectos and upgrade components and their respective prices. The recent addition of salvagabale inscriptions and insignias but another layer of profitability to them. Knowing the salvage rates of lower tier salvage kits (and lower tier upgrade components) compared to master/mystic or black lion kits even gives you the opportunity to make some gold by salvaging white/blue/green items while raising your account mf rate with essences of luck.
Again, knowing the updates and the market gives you a huge advantage over Average Joe. Right after the Escape from La update, I had half my guild promoting bronze ingots into iron ingots, making 5-10g profit per skillpoint, while iron was high in demand.

John Smith.4610:

There’s a lot to say about this idea. I like that you’re attempting to find a reasonable solution, but the one of the biggest problems is that nobody would do it. Secondly, (this has been said) if you want your item to not be flipped, actually sell it at what it’s worth. Don’t take less money for fast return, that’s how those markets are created. In the end, this is a very hard to explain, very hard to implement, very complicated solution to a “problem” that can be solved by just selling items at the correct price.

Many people are happy to take less money for instant return and that’s fine if that’s your preference, others are willing to wait, and someone will work in the middle to make the market more efficient. It’s a good system and it works very well, forcing people to not trade they way they want to wouldn’t be better, it would be much worse. (not that your suggestion is forcing people, this is just a general comment)

PS any flipper that’s attempting to make money on luxury items isn’t good at flipping. It’s a slow, dangerous, rarely-profitable way to attempt to make money (that’s why nobody does it).

If there’s a “match 5-day-average” option or a graph tracking the prices, instead of just a crude “match lowest”, a lot more people would be selling their stuff at informed prices. If a third party website can offer these type of info using the very same set of data that is driving the in-game TP, then, unless the intention is to obfuscate, so can the game.

TL;DR: TP should just copy gw2spidy’s interface.

BAWW.8104:

John Smith.4610:

There’s a lot to say about this idea. I like that you’re attempting to find a reasonable solution, but the one of the biggest problems is that nobody would do it. Secondly, (this has been said) if you want your item to not be flipped, actually sell it at what it’s worth. Don’t take less money for fast return, that’s how those markets are created. In the end, this is a very hard to explain, very hard to implement, very complicated solution to a “problem” that can be solved by just selling items at the correct price.

Many people are happy to take less money for instant return and that’s fine if that’s your preference, others are willing to wait, and someone will work in the middle to make the market more efficient. It’s a good system and it works very well, forcing people to not trade they way they want to wouldn’t be better, it would be much worse. (not that your suggestion is forcing people, this is just a general comment)

PS any flipper that’s attempting to make money on luxury items isn’t good at flipping. It’s a slow, dangerous, rarely-profitable way to attempt to make money (that’s why nobody does it).

If there’s a “match 5-day-average” option or a graph tracking the prices, instead of just a crude “match lowest”, a lot more people would be selling their stuff at informed prices. If a third party website can offer these type of info using the very same set of data that is driving the in-game TP, then, unless the intention is to obfuscate, so can the game.

TL;DR: TP should just copy gw2spidy’s interface.

I agree with you that if people would use more sites like spidy the profit of speculators woul diminish. However, spidy hs been online for over a year and still people look for profits.

BAWW.8104:

John Smith.4610:

There’s a lot to say about this idea. I like that you’re attempting to find a reasonable solution, but the one of the biggest problems is that nobody would do it. Secondly, (this has been said) if you want your item to not be flipped, actually sell it at what it’s worth. Don’t take less money for fast return, that’s how those markets are created. In the end, this is a very hard to explain, very hard to implement, very complicated solution to a “problem” that can be solved by just selling items at the correct price.

Many people are happy to take less money for instant return and that’s fine if that’s your preference, others are willing to wait, and someone will work in the middle to make the market more efficient. It’s a good system and it works very well, forcing people to not trade they way they want to wouldn’t be better, it would be much worse. (not that your suggestion is forcing people, this is just a general comment)

PS any flipper that’s attempting to make money on luxury items isn’t good at flipping. It’s a slow, dangerous, rarely-profitable way to attempt to make money (that’s why nobody does it).

If there’s a “match 5-day-average” option or a graph tracking the prices, instead of just a crude “match lowest”, a lot more people would be selling their stuff at informed prices. If a third party website can offer these type of info using the very same set of data that is driving the in-game TP, then, unless the intention is to obfuscate, so can the game.

TL;DR: TP should just copy gw2spidy’s interface.

Or the obvious, just remove the buy order system. Have a uniform buy and sell price. We won’t even need to have the discussion now.

John Smith.4610:

PS any flipper that’s attempting to make money on luxury items isn’t good at flipping. It’s a slow, dangerous, rarely-profitable way to attempt to make money (that’s why nobody does it).

That’s exactly the mistake I made when holding onto niche market items, expecting them to raise in value, not tank overnight.

Wanze.8410:

Yeah, i think youre right, i was one step in front of you in the supply chain, crafting thousands of rare greatswords every week (usually i got the inscriptions itself on buy order rather than crafting them myself to maximise profit). I guess the 20% profit margin now is based on listing them instead of selling directly?

20% is roughly the margin of the entire chain – buying mithril ore, elder wood logs, and T5 fine mats via buy order, and selling the precursor and exotics via sell order. I’m really not exaggerating when I say the profitability has been beaten out of that market; if you’re buying rare greatswords at list price off the TP and throwing them into the forge, you’re not doing much better than breaking even at current prices.

Granted I do not know the exact percentages (my data set only has ~40 precursors in it) but it is unlikely to deviate too far from that. If you’re buying rares at list to throw into the forge, you’re straight up gambling.

Smooth Penguin.5294:

John Smith.4610:

PS any flipper that’s attempting to make money on luxury items isn’t good at flipping. It’s a slow, dangerous, rarely-profitable way to attempt to make money (that’s why nobody does it).

That’s exactly the mistake I made when holding onto niche market items, expecting them to raise in value, not tank overnight.

I thought John Smith is talking about precursor. What happened to you is a change in design philosophy about not releasing event item again.

^ That’s partly true, yes, but the other major risk with luxury items is that market tastes change. Usually when a new skin is released, it’s the “hot item” and everybody wants it. (See how many people run around with the new back skin whenever one is released as a good example.) But this demand typically falls off very quickly once the next item skin is released. Prices for luxury goods may remain high, but the pool of buyers is very small (and chances are they’re OTHER investors). Your investment may not move for months, and there’s the risk that a new, very similar or “even more cool” skin is released, and everybody flocks to it. Or that the skin is re-released and prices tumble like a rock. Or perhaps YOU get bored and move on to another game, meaning that you never managed to make use of the potential cash locked up in your investment.

JS is right. Investing in rare luxury skins is VERY risky.

Zaxares.5419:

^ That’s partly true, yes, but the other major risk with luxury items is that market tastes change. Usually when a new skin is released, it’s the “hot item” and everybody wants it. (See how many people run around with the new back skin whenever one is released as a good example.) But this demand typically falls off very quickly once the next item skin is released. Prices for luxury goods may remain high, but the pool of buyers is very small (and chances are they’re OTHER investors). Your investment may not move for months, and there’s the risk that a new, very similar or “even more cool” skin is released, and everybody flocks to it. Or that the skin is re-released and prices tumble like a rock. Or perhaps YOU get bored and move on to another game, meaning that you never managed to make use of the potential cash locked up in your investment.

JS is right. Investing in rare luxury skins is VERY risky.

Really, how many example are there that those luxury event skins ever drop in price before.

Worse case is super skin, dragon wings. But in the long runs, the price rise again.

I do admit you might wait month before price start to rise. But at least it don’t drop, so I don’t see how those are risky investment.

They was never a risky investment before last week where Anet decided to re-release previous event skins.

Wanze.8410:

I would argue that rich players arent responsible for inflated precursor prices, especially because prices have been stable for 6 months.

Your argument is compelling to me.

I might have fallen in to the trap of applying a bit too much real-life economic theory to a virtual economy (or, arguably, misapplying it). Achievement pride has much more of an impact to specific items than real life where displayable physical goods can really only ever be an indirect sign of status unlike certain items in GW2.

I would still say that rich players have a higher tendency to buy out a precursor simply due to them being in the unique position of being able to, while a poor player being able to would be a contradiction of terms, and that individual would really be mislabeling themselves. But I’ll rethink how much of an impact the various groups have on price setting.

Nike.2631:

A good home

Having read through your suggestion and thinking about it, I have to say that it would work.

It would certainly not be used for every item, but for specific markets- like dyes as your suggested- it would have a small following.

But realise that while the suggestion wouldn’t be ‘bad’ it also isn’t anywhere near as important as much much easier to implement changes would be.

You’re asking for something that would effect the trading post UI, item binding, and duplication of many TP functions. Compare this to other changes and the impact they would have on quality of life.

Armor filtering by light, medium, heavy: this is a fairly simple fix that people have been asking for for over a year, and would have a positive impact on every single player.

But it hasn’t been done, because developer time is limited, and what you’re suggesting is of such limited use, and such arguable benefit, for such a low number of players that you can’t realistically expect it to gain any traction.

Implementing a formal system for something which can, just as efficiently, be done with map chat and the mail system just isn’t reasonable. It wouldn’t solve any imagined problems with wealth distribution, it wouldn’t assist trade, it wouldn’t really do anything but allow strangers to gift unwanted dyes to strangers.

Very quickly you’d have 25,000 Peach Dyes listed at 15c and then no one would ever go back there again. The number of new players who stumble in to the system and end up with an unsellable item would be massive compare to legitimate users, those who do use it would be dissatisfied as their raw materials are snatched up and converted by traders for profit, new updates would be demanded wasting more and more development time on something which should never have been a priority in the first place.

If you want to give people dyes, then give people dyes. But if you want to suggest a complex system, make sure it has actual value to a wide range of players, not just something that might be used by some people.

No, how will I make money if i don’t flip? You expect me to join the filthy champ trains?