Guild Wars 2

ilr.9675:

So here’s a question for you market Geniuses….

Everytime I’ve found a Rare Greatsword and sold it on the Market, it was 10s over the price of an Ecto. Do you think that has anything to do with the precursor’s mysterious supply rates? There’d have to be SOME kind of correlation for someone or someones to be going through that many of them when they could be crafting more themselves for less upfront investment. What could possibly explain that volume being so high? Some kind of tear in the RNG Mystic Toilet continuum?

It’s a rare greatsword, so it’s high in demand for quick mystic forging

The Legeng costing 1200g its a bit stupid, with that money you can make another legendary. I guess I need to wait a few days to the price get reasonable.

Smooth Penguin.5294:

I think it’s safe to assume that the chart for Day 25 and 26 would indicate that a handful of players sold multiple Dusks to unique buyers. That’s far from being able to “control” the market. As for the Legend, looks like it’s one seller per buyer.

I can only conclude that a few players panicked on news about Legendary weapon upgrades, and went out and bought Dusks. This move was just speculation that the prices would skyrocket. It happens in the real world markets too.

Best to exercise a bit of caution.

It’s really hard to draw conclusions based on these metrics alone (uniqueness). All it tells us is the number of actors (including the item, but not unique roles) in a given day – not even across the time period.

There’s really not really a lot to go on. It’s something, but nothing really conclusive.

John Smith.4610:

Here’s Legend as well:
The columns are
Day (obvious, but it’s UTC of course)
Buyers is how many unique users purchased, if it’s less than the total sold then someone bought 2
sellers is the same

I am one of those 19.
But seriously, the legend is more expensive than the moot right now.

Mourningcry.9428:

Smooth Penguin.5294:

I think it’s safe to assume that the chart for Day 25 and 26 would indicate that a handful of players sold multiple Dusks to unique buyers. That’s far from being able to “control” the market. As for the Legend, looks like it’s one seller per buyer.

I can only conclude that a few players panicked on news about Legendary weapon upgrades, and went out and bought Dusks. This move was just speculation that the prices would skyrocket. It happens in the real world markets too.

Best to exercise a bit of caution.

It’s really hard to draw conclusions based on these metrics alone (uniqueness). All it tells us is the number of actors (including the item, but not unique roles) in a given day – not even across the time period.

There’s really not really a lot to go on. It’s something, but nothing really conclusive.

My speculation of their reasoning is based on their speculations of pricing. Basically the blind leading the blind. One thing that I do know for a fact is that there’s no monopoly of Precursors, nor is there market control.

Well that pretty much tells us what has always seemed pretty obvious… inflation from this last month is the problem, not rich players trying to control the market.

People farmed 1000g+ and now they are buying their pre-cursors. They are most likely the last thing they needed so they are willing to spend all their money, which is now a significantly larger amount due to the gauntlet inflation.

Just saying, 3/9 patch will introduce the lvl 500 craft.

Which is the base on top of Anet said they’re going to build the “craft your precursor”.

If you’re looking at a legendary, i’d simply wait. In 3-4 months you will probably have a way to get your Dusk trough craft.

And, even if you don’t want to mess with it, the simple addition of the feature itself will make demand drop a LOT, followed by prices.

Well, at least on paper. I guess that the mat list/cost will be the matter making prices drop or stay.

AndrewSX.3794:

Just saying, 3/9 patch will introduce the lvl 500 craft.

Which is the base on top of Anet said they’re going to build the “craft your precursor”.

If you’re looking at a legendary, i’d simply wait. In 3-4 months you will probably have a way to get your Dusk trough craft.

And, even if you don’t want to mess with it, the simple addition of the feature itself will make demand drop a LOT, followed by prices.

Well, at least on paper. I guess that the mat list/cost will be the matter making prices drop or stay.

You’re not the first to speculate on this… I just keep finding it amusing how optimistic these predictions are.

What if crafting a precursor is time gated to take 250days (just throwing that out there) – one ingredient you can only get one of per account per day. Now, chuck on a bunch of otehr t6/t7 mats that add a gold barrier.

Suddenly the TP may not look like such a bad option….

Just saying.

Mourningcry.9428:

AndrewSX.3794:

Just saying, 3/9 patch will introduce the lvl 500 craft.

Which is the base on top of Anet said they’re going to build the “craft your precursor”.

If you’re looking at a legendary, i’d simply wait. In 3-4 months you will probably have a way to get your Dusk trough craft.

And, even if you don’t want to mess with it, the simple addition of the feature itself will make demand drop a LOT, followed by prices.

Well, at least on paper. I guess that the mat list/cost will be the matter making prices drop or stay.

You’re not the first to speculate on this… I just keep finding it amusing how optimistic these predictions are.

What if crafting a precursor is time gated to take 250days (just throwing that out there) – one ingredient you can only get one of per account per day. Now, chuck on a bunch of otehr t6/t7 mats that add a gold barrier.

Suddenly the TP may not look like such a bad option….

Just saying.

Which is why i said:

Well, at least on paper. I guess that the mat list/cost will be the matter making prices drop or stay.

If Anet makes too much bothersome to craft precursors then market will be unaffected, both in good and bad sense.
If they make them too cheap or easy to get then there would be no reason to go TP, making the whole rarity of precursors silly.

Also, take in account that any mat involved in the craft of precursors might spike up in price, thus affecting much more markets aside precursors one.

It’s matter of balance.

Way too early to tell right now.

ZudetGambeous.9573:

Well that pretty much tells us what has always seemed pretty obvious… inflation from this last month is the problem, not rich players trying to control the market.

Inflation, plus the relative scarcity of new drops, plus the high cost of relisting.

Hey its logical really, most precursors sells to the highest buy order.

Assuming this and if a bunch of precursors are very close in price (sell listing) then one can buy these, put up a high sell listing (which will put the sell price on the item high for a long time).

Now over time the buy listings will creep upwards slowly as the sell listing creeps down, assuming the buy listings increase over the previous sell listing then hell be able to sell these for a profit.

As you can see atm on gw2spidy, the current buy listings match or are greater then the previous sell listings. So it might be that he simply inflated the buy listings so the big losers in this scenario is the people who undercut his high bid (since he doesnt really care about selling it for that price).

AndrewSX.3794:

Which is why i said:

Well, at least on paper. I guess that the mat list/cost will be the matter making prices drop or stay.

If Anet makes too much bothersome to craft precursors then market will be unaffected, both in good and bad sense.
If they make them too cheap or easy to get then there would be no reason to go TP, making the whole rarity of precursors silly.

Also, take in account that any mat involved in the craft of precursors might spike up in price, thus affecting much more markets aside precursors one.

It’s matter of balance.

Way too early to tell right now.

I saw that… but if the barrier to craft is high enough, it could very well drive prices further up.

So, suggesting to wait, may in fact be counterproductive advice.

My point being is that whenever the topic of precursor crafting comes up, the trend is to advise to wait and see in expectation of either a beneficial outcome (with respect to the crafter) or for the market to remain unchanged. Rarely is there any consdieration given to the potential buyer being utterly kittened.

aeneq.1760:

Hey its logical really, most precursors sells to the highest buy order.

I highly doubt the accuracy of this statement.

Mourningcry.9428:

So, suggesting to wait, may in fact be counterproductive advice.

Just like the opposite.

Atm things are just unknown so it’s a 50/50 guess – everybody has his opinion, but ultimately as long as nothing is known about actual process it’s all speculation.

Now dawn price exploded also, sorry for the language but kitten YOU rich motherf… speculaters.
Enough said. i hope they read it before it gets banned.

Onkelbubu.3108:

Now dawn price exploded also, sorry for the language but kitten YOU rich motherf… speculaters.
Enough said. i hope they read it before it gets banned.

Why should people get banned for spending money they earned recently?

I mean before my post gets banned.
And yes they should get banned for creating a monopoly.

Learn about what a monopoly is first

AndrewSX.3794:

Mourningcry.9428:

So, suggesting to wait, may in fact be counterproductive advice.

Just like the opposite.

Atm things are just unknown so it’s a 50/50 guess – everybody has his opinion, but ultimately as long as nothing is known about actual process it’s all speculation.

Perhaps… but take the case of Dusk and Twilight…

For a while Dusk’s role could basically be broke downn roughly as % of Twlight such that it was

~25% as an outright ingredient (1 of 4 parts)
~40-45% as a converted gold cost if bought from TP(does not include Gift of Mastery, or Clovers)
~99.99% as a drop acquisition (being generous)

You can blend and weight those attributes arbitrarily to come to exactly what % of the Legnedary the precusor contributed in your opinion. But at least it gives some boundaries for what it actually represents.

So, when taking into account those very generalized breakdowns, thinking that crafting the precursor would ease the burden of creating a legendary to less than just the outright converted cost, just seems optimistic.

Onkelbubu.3108:

I mean before my post gets banned.
And yes they should get banned for creating a monopoly.

Wut.

Please go look up the definition of a monopoly. And please explain to us how these people who’s earned a bunch of money the past living story is controlling supply in any way, shape or form. They’re not.

You can’t fault players for spending their money.

Ursan.7846:

Onkelbubu.3108:

I mean before my post gets banned.
And yes they should get banned for creating a monopoly.

Wut.

Please go look up the definition of a monopoly. And please explain to us how these people who’s earned a bunch of money the past living story is controlling supply in any way, shape or form. They’re not.

You can’t fault players for spending their money.

Players got perma banned for buying items with karma and throwing them into the forge, explain me that plz.

Onkelbubu.3108:

Players got perma banned for buying items with karma and throwing them into the forge, explain me that plz.

Not sure if serious or not. Players got banned in that instance because they exploited a bug in which certain items were severely undervalued (i.e. 42 karma instead of 42,000 karma. Something like that, forgot actual numbers). This is a case of player obviously exploiting a bug.

Money earned from the LS is completely intended.

And exploiting the TP for the disadvantage of all other players in the game seems legit?

I think he’s just jealous of rich players.

It’s no different than people in real life screaming at the heads of CEO’s who make your year’s salary in one day.

Onkelbubu.3108:

And exploiting the TP for the disadvantage of all other players in the game seems legit?

An exploit is taking advantage of a bug. No one is exploiting any bug on the TP. The increase in prices of goods in general the past few weeks isn’t due to any bug, it’s due to players, overall, earning a lot of money during this LS episode.

I got 1339 gold, thats more than enough. I dont need to be jealous. And reading your comments makes me think that both of you are part of those speculants.

John Smith.4610:

Hey all, I pulled the data (again) on dusk sales for the last 2.5 days. This shows the quantity of unique buyers and sellers and dusks:

I think it may be a bit premature to start panicking.

I know a guy with 13.000 gold, 35.000 gems and 8 accounts.

Dusk price was 600g last I checked, now it jumped 300g.

People who got tons of money at the begining of GW2 because they rushed through the content, often buy 20 or 30 of the each item, or buy it out completly where there’s not many left, then spike the price.

I know many people that do this. They were rich and they are getting richer ever day.

You buy something out when there’s not many left, then you tripe or quadroople the price. And since you bought all the supply, well. Good business.

We’ve seen it happen with Jack-A-Lop. It went from 80g to 160g in 1 day.

Anything bought on the TP should just become acount bound so it can’t be resold. Would shut down all these market exploits and allow legit buyers who’ll actually use the stuff they are trading for.

Onkelbubu.3108:

I got 1339 gold, thats more than enough. I dont need to be jealous. And reading your comments makes me think that both of you are part of those speculants.

As long as John doesn’t release information on my transactions, you’ll never know.

Onkelbubu.3108:

I got 1339 gold, thats more than enough. I dont need to be jealous. And reading your comments makes me think that both of you are part of those speculants.

Hell yeah I’m a speculator, why would I want to hide such a thing? I’m darn proud of getting rich off of people’s impatience, not ignorance.

Nearly all the items in my gbank I’m speculating on:

http://imgur.com/a/K5bew

I’ve already made a killing off those 2 Storm’s which I bought several months ago. Both Fused weapons I can make an easy 40g right now but I can make a ton more by waiting. I’m going to make a ton off cores/t6/clodes when lvl 500 crafting and and new legendaries come out.

By all means, send a CC complaint with that screeny attached. I happily await my perma ban.

Quite exquisite, Vol. Though I’m surprised you haven’t invested in more Vicious Claws. Their prices nosedived during the initial QJ.

I try to make it a habit never to invest in too many stacks, or else I get burnt.

It happened to me for my 3000 Armored Scales earlier this year, as well as my 3000 Elaborate Totems.

Armored scales took me 3 months to recoup cost and I finally made a 15% profit, but it wasn’t worth it due to opportunity costs. Of course now, Armored Scales are at +25s.

Elaborate Totems brought me losses and continue this day. I bought 3000 at 16s and ended up having to sell most at a loss at 18s (not including TP fees). Whatever is left in the bank is just for personal use.

Vicious Claws may very well rise in price but I just dont’ want to invest too much in any one item since ANYTHING can happen.

Its not about materials and playing with peoples impatience. Its about stealing their money by playing with precursers. Its only about precursers.
Those should be treated like special goods ( by arenanet ), they are not and thats the problem.
Exploiting this is what makes me rage.

Onkelbubu.3108:

Its not about materials and playing with peoples impatience. Its about stealing their money by playing with precursers. Its only about precursers.
Those should be treated like special goods ( by arenanet ), they are not and thats the problem.
Exploiting this is what makes me rage.

OK, honest question here

If you were selling your Dusk, and you saw two buyers. One who was willing to pay you 400g, and another 700g.

Would you honestly ever considering selling Dusk to the former and losing 300g?

Vol.5241:

Onkelbubu.3108:

Its not about materials and playing with peoples impatience. Its about stealing their money by playing with precursers. Its only about precursers.
Those should be treated like special goods ( by arenanet ), they are not and thats the problem.
Exploiting this is what makes me rage.

OK, honest question here

If you were selling your Dusk, and you saw two buyers. One who was willing to pay you 400g, and another 700g.

Would you honestly ever considering selling Dusk to the former and losing 300g?

Have you seen any post of myself in the last days when dusk was at 700g?
The price is still too high but it was just natural. What happened today is just the joke of the week.
Trading fees for precursers should raised to 30%.

Onkelbubu.3108:

Vol.5241:

Onkelbubu.3108:

Its not about materials and playing with peoples impatience. Its about stealing their money by playing with precursers. Its only about precursers.
Those should be treated like special goods ( by arenanet ), they are not and thats the problem.
Exploiting this is what makes me rage.

OK, honest question here

If you were selling your Dusk, and you saw two buyers. One who was willing to pay you 400g, and another 700g.

Would you honestly ever considering selling Dusk to the former and losing 300g?

Have you seen any post of myself in the last days when dusk was at 700g?
The price is still too high but it was just natural. What happened today is just the joke of the week.
Trading fees for precursers should raised to 30%.

I’m merely trying to prove how flawed your argument is.

By all means, we can replace “Dusk” with Charged Lodestones and have the spread at 1G and 3G if that appeases you.

Onkelbubu.3108:

Its not about materials and playing with peoples impatience. Its about stealing their money by playing with precursers. Its only about precursers.
Those should be treated like special goods ( by arenanet ), they are not and thats the problem.
Exploiting this is what makes me rage.

Do you rage about the grocery store stealing your money every time you get some Ramen? Prices are based on what buyers are willing to pay and what sellers are willing to accept. Nothing is being stolen and no exploiting is occuring.

Dawn market reseted.

Np

You cannot compare precursers with other items. Thats just wrong.
Or do you compare apples with Maseratis?

mtpelion.4562:

Do you rage about the grocery store stealing your money every time you get some Ramen? Prices are based on what buyers are willing to pay and what sellers are willing to accept. Nothing is being stolen and no exploiting is occuring.

How about bottled soda being more expensive than the bigger bottles? I imagine the rage blows his mind.

Yeah enough said here. It has no sense anyway. I bet all of you are mystic forging greatswords like maniacs at the moment. Have fun with it.

Onkelbubu.3108:

Yeah enough said here. It has no sense anyway. I bet all of you are mystic forging greatswords like maniacs at the moment. Have fun with it.

Darn right I will. I got enough inscriptions to forge +2750 rares. Can’t wait until they come out with new legendaries and people end up paying +1200g for the new precursors.

And hell, I won’t feel guilty about it.

Assuming I don’t get banned before then for speculating …

Onkelbubu.3108:

You cannot compare precursers with other items. Thats just wrong.
Or do you compare apples with Maseratis?

They are still items that can be bought and sold on the open market. So I’ll simplify the question:

You have “Item A” that’s in high demand. You put it on the market for sale, and you find two buyers.
Buyer 1 – I’ll pay 400 Gold for your “Item A”.
Buyer 2 – I’ll pay 700 Gold for your “Item A”.

Question – To whom would you sell your item to?

Onkelbubu.3108:

Its not about materials and playing with peoples impatience. Its about stealing their money by playing with precursers. Its only about precursers.
Those should be treated like special goods ( by arenanet ), they are not and thats the problem.
Exploiting this is what makes me rage.

Look man, Hermes Paris Birkin Bags, they sell for about $10k. The cost of production, even though it is craft by some master craftman in Paris by hand, is way lower. Think the cost as below 1k, it is just some cow skins plus an old man that works slowly.

However, people are willing to dish out that 10k for 1k (true value) for status symbol.

Onkelbubu.3108:

You cannot compare precursers with other items. Thats just wrong.
Or do you compare apples with Maseratis?

Depends, selling 1 Maserati is worth, let’s say, 200k?
I ‘ll get same money by selling, let’s say, 1 million apples….
Prolly this will be a rude awakening for you, mate: it is called economy.
I honestly do not see anything wrong for how it is going right now. I am not worried. And, I do not need a legendary, which helps.

playandchill.3908:

Dawn market reseted.

Np

If you call a single-day 30% increase “resetting”, then you are correct.

You people are slow. Mr. Smith showed that the precursors were 99% being purchased by single buyers. The End.

Vol.5241:

Onkelbubu.3108:

Yeah enough said here. It has no sense anyway. I bet all of you are mystic forging greatswords like maniacs at the moment. Have fun with it.

Darn right I will. I got enough inscriptions to forge +2750 rares. Can’t wait until they come out with new legendaries and people end up paying +1200g for the new precursors.

And hell, I won’t feel guilty about it.

Assuming I don’t get banned before then for speculating …

Someone flushed 3.5k rares the other day in one go without any precursors so prepare yourself to get disappointed lol.

Berner.7289:

If you call a single-day 30% increase “resetting”, then you are correct.

I’m sort of curious how a single day anything is relevant in an economy that’s designed to ebb and flow across a span of months if not years.

That it jumped ~+70% for oh, about 20 minutes sounds really, really important… if for some reason all your money was going to disintegrate in the next 19 minutes. otherwise its a big flashy change than means nothing at all to anyone except the speculator who lost his posting fees.

Too pricey? Work on the other parts of your Legendary and get ready to giggle at the double whammy of crafted precurssors removing potential buyers who HATE the TP and want nothing to do fiscal PvP, and a second set of new shiny Legendaries gutting the value of the current array of choices.

Smith posts data shows there’s no single account manipulating the market. People continue to ascribe the increase in price of Dusk to this imaginary speculation rather than any of a number of other possibilities, most notably:

1. The demand for precursors is increasing faster than the supply, since anyone participating in any of the recently added farms is gaining enough coin and mats quickly enough to make a lot more individuals feel a legendary is within their grasp.
2. The demand for legendaries is spiking because of both the recent announcement and because, as more legendaries show up, more people are going to covet them.
3. Sudden spikes, for any reason, tend to panic a small fraction of the potential buyers, who then become willing to spend much more than they originally budgeted, to avoid “losing their chance.” The theoretically rational consumer would wait out the spike, but anyone crafting a legendary isn’t entirely rational on the topic. (I, of course, include myself.)

It’s not uncommon for markets of high price-points items to show greater fluctuations than the market in general. Home prices for the 1% will spike and dip in local markets, whenever there’s a new billionaire, someone goes bankrupt, or the owner is perhaps indicted by the relevant Securities & Exchange agency. No one is manipulating home price: many could afford to do so, but there are much easier ways to make money.