Guild Wars 2

Speculation over the requirements for the Spinal Blades component “Gifts of Wine” has seen a significant increase in demand for Grapes.

The question I’m interested in is whether or not some of this demand is being fueled by “informed” investors? Those with access to the test servers etc.

Price spikes in the run up to patch releases indicating informed purchases is a pattern we are use to, and I don’t expect an official response on the specifics of Gifts of Wine from anet prior to the information becoming public.

But having said that I think it’s worth highlighting what could turn out to be another example of this, in order to give the rest of us the opportunity to follow this as it unfolds, and anet the opportunity to investigate the trades (if they indeed do know why there might be a future increase in grape demand).

I’m interested to hear what others think, not only about Grapes in this case but the wider issue of informed/insider trading. How prevalent do you feel it is, and do you think anything is done to prevent it and provide a deterrent?

I really don’t get why people are assuming Grapes will be used for the recipe.

We already have actual wine in the game, it is much more likely that it will require those than a couple of Grapes.

Rez.8016:

Speculation over the requirements for the Spinal Blades component “Gifts of Wine” has seen a significant increase in demand for Grapes.

The question I’m interested in is whether or not some of this demand is being fueled by “informed” investors? Those with access to the test servers etc.

Price spikes in the run up to patch releases indicating informed purchases is a pattern we are use to, and I don’t expect an official response on the specifics of Gifts of Wine from anet prior to the information becoming public.

But having said that I think it’s worth highlighting what could turn out to be another example of this, in order to give the rest of us the opportunity to follow this as it unfolds, and anet the opportunity to investigate the trades (if they indeed do know why there might be a future increase in grape demand).

I’m interested to hear what others think, not only about Grapes in this case but the wider issue of informed/insider trading. How prevalent do you feel it is, and do you think anything is done to prevent it and provide a deterrent?

I bought a couple of stacks out of pure speculation and some other people did as well. If everything turns out good, I make maybe 50g profit.

I think your suspicions are totally out of relation. Even if someone should make 500g profit on grapes through insider info, keep in mind how much that gold is worth in real money. A goldseller gets like 50-75 bucks for it. Alot of that money he needs to spend on new accounts because his get banned all the time, website maintenance, labor costs etc. The amount of money an Anet employee could get with this tip is so marginal that its not worth losing your job for it.

I dont think that any Anet employee does insider trading because the risk to be caught is so high for very little benefit they could expect. Keep in mind that if they get caught, they not only lose their job but will also have a hard time finding a new one in the industry.

There might have been slip ups here and there but with datamining, hacked computers etc, its hard to keep all info secure until release.

Apparently the Spanish tooltip mentions Elonian Wine. Apparently.

@Rez: GW2Tradingpost.com posted it as a tip.

It’s most likely just speculators buying and selling to speculators. The site does it all the time, mostly scamming public speculators after telling private subscribers to stock up a week before hand.

If Gift of Wine turns out to be used then you’ve got an issue. But we keep having these threads that disappear if the prediction turns out to be false. There will always be speculation and mostly it’s just fabricated or someone trying to monopolize a market.

Flissy.4093:

Apparently the Spanish tooltip mentions Elonian Wine. Apparently.

This is what I assumed when I read gift of wine. Grapes never even entered my mind lol

Grapes went from simple joke to rampant speculation

I think it’s wrong headed speculation. These people are going to get burned in my opinion.

I’m inclined to agree. It reminds me of Halloween 2012 when people invested into Sugar Pumpkins, only to discover that hardly any were needed for the new food recipes.

It’s just that, people buy on speculation. People in early will make money on speculation. Those late in the game will lose. Just like stocks.
Investing in something that you feel should be worth more can be smart, yet a long hold. Make a decent percentage return. Speculating is not caring what the truth is on the idea, nor what or why it is priced where its priced. Making a bigger profit if correct, or just get out when they are in decent profit in a short time to move to the next idea. It happens through out all markets in real life and in games that have any semblance of a people fueled economy.

Yup, this is pure speculation. I first heard it as kind of a joke in-game, and next thing I knew it was on forums and email lists from “How to Make Gold in GW2” “experts” as the next big money maker. I will be surprised if the Gift of Wine requires 250 grapes or anything like that. It could happen, but even then I’d consider it a lucky coincidence for those who took the risk buying grapes, rather than any sort of legitimate “leak” of info or anything like that.

Besides, I’m more interested in finding out WTF is going on with Endless Black Quaggan Tonics… they went from 1.80 gold to 5 gold in less than an hour, and still aren’t going back down!

Otokomae.9356:

Besides, I’m more interested in finding out WTF is going on with Endless Black Quaggan Tonics… they went from 1.80 gold to 5 gold in less than an hour, and still aren’t going back down!

The endless tonics stack, so as long as you have the gold it won’t take up much room in your stash. I guesstimate that that’s one reason to buy em up cheap and start selling them later on.

If grapes do end up getting used, why is that an issue?

It’s not necessarily insider trading and more like people using common sense and linking wine and grapes.

If somehow an item required ‘Gift of Oranges’, what do you think people will speculate in?

Vol.7601:

If somehow an item required ‘Gift of Oranges’, what do you think people will speculate in?

Bananas!!

Anyway I feel that grapes are a very common item, I try to go to the Fields of Ruin grape field in order to get lucky and earn some unidentified dyes, if it actually goes higher then I’m looking at a lot of profit ^^

It will probably based on an item won after the event. Wine being the celebratory drink.

Sell your grapes now…

So, as usual the ‘insider trading’ was idiotic speculation.

Let’s take this as yet another lesson on not to cry wolf.

Risingashes.8694:

So, as usual the ‘insider trading’ was idiotic speculation.

Let’s take this as yet another lesson on not to cry wolf.

WOLF!