Guild Wars 2

Hey
I saw a video where someone opened 500 Black Lion Chests, he bought gems for ~4200g to get the keys

Here is what he got:

193 Unid Dyes
1 Endless Mysterie Tonic Forest
1 Tybalt Backpack
1 Tiger Charr Backpack
1 Pink Quaggan Backpack
1 Quaggan Killerwhale Backpack
4 Black Lion Tickets
102 Black Lion Ticket Scraps
18 Mini Marjory
14 Mini Mai Trin
5 Mini Caithe
2 Mini Holo Scarlet
24 Scroll of Knowledge
26 Tome of Knowledge
65 Repair Canister
30 Large Guild Discovery
18 Trait Resets
42 Rejuvenation Boosters
38 Killstreak-XP Boosters
54 MF Booster
40 Speed Booster
54 Crafting Booster
43 Gathering Booster
56 XP Booster
57 Armor Booster
59 WXP Booster
59 Strength Booster
16 Essence of Luck 100
15 Essence of Luck 50
86 Merchant Express
1 Total Makeover Kit
6 Hair Kits
6 Minis 3 Pack (Set 2)
18 Dye Packs
5 Boxes of Fun
136 Mystery Tonic
9 Metabolic Primer
56 Bank Expresses
74 TP Expresses
8 Communal Boost Bonfire
35 Revive Orbs
102 Transmutation Crystals
24 Black Lion Salvage Kits

IMO its not worth buying those keys, not a single permanent contract in 500 chests
I also read, that theres no chance to get the hairstyle-contract from those chests, they were only available on wintersdays 2012

why i didnt post a link?
because last time i wanted to discuss something and posted a link to it in the first post, the thread was moved to another subforum (linksville), where no one reads it

greetings from germany

RNG is RNG. Opening one or a thousand doesn’t make it any less of a devil.

Talonblaze.3175:

RNG is RNG. Opening one or a thousand doesn’t make it any less of a devil.

That makes no sense.

Opening a thousand lets you reasonably approximate drop rate percentages of items.

If you have a sample size of a million, you could probably fairly accurately detail the drop rate.

RNG simply means “random number generator”. There’s an algorithm there. It approximates randomness. Each item has a certain percentage of being “dropped”.

This does, at least, give us all a good idea of what can be expected from BLCs and how often (or how rare) to expect it.

Just noticed that there is not a single karma booster lol

Karma boosters were removed with the Jan 21 Update, IIRC.

Law of Big Numbers when dealing with RNG should show a greater tendency toward actual odds. So 500 chests gives us a practical number of 14 tickets. That’s much lower than I inspected. The 1 in 5 for scraps is close to what I expected but the 1 in 125 for an actual ticket is much lower than I expected.

I did suggest that they should reduce the drop rate of crates, remove items like boosters and transmute stones, and increase the drop rates slightly for more rare items.

I find the biggest issue with BLCs are that they are so common, so to make up for the common-ness, the drop rates for useful and desirable things are extremely low. .-.

Talonblaze.3175:

RNG is RNG. Opening one or a thousand doesn’t make it any less of a devil.

…quoted from “Statistics and other misconceptions of modern science”

Looking at the sheer number of different things that can come out of the chest, it seems that opening 500 of them doesn’t even close to determining a reasonable droprate for the items inside.

In my experience, you should do as many trials as it takes to get at least 1 of everything that CAN come out……then do 4 times that amount to have a reasonable approximation of the droprate for individual items.

The greater the number of items inside……the greater the number of trials required.

Behellagh.1468:

Law of Big Numbers when dealing with RNG should show a greater tendency toward actual odds. So 500 chests gives us a practical number of 14 tickets. That’s much lower than I inspected. The 1 in 5 for scraps is close to what I expected but the 1 in 125 for an actual ticket is much lower than I expected.

The Law of Humans Aren’t Random strongly suggests that the drop rate for tickets is probably 1 in 100 and this sample deviated a tiny bit to the low side .

If you were to buy the 500 keys today it would cost you:

1. 5293g75s00c If using Gold
2. $781.25 If using Cash
2a. If the gems bought with cash were converted to gold instead, you’d get 3825g00s00c

So the question is: Is it even possible to come close to recouping either 1. or 2a. in game gold through Black Lion Chests?

The answer appears to be a hearty “NO” (we’re probably talking thousands of gold in losses unless you get your ticket skins when they are 1 ticket each and hold them until they increase in value enough to offset) which leads into a second question: Are the non-saleable items worth the amount of gold you are losing?

That’s kind of a personal question that I leave up to you.

Just don’t make the mistake of buying Keys for any kind of financial reason. They are gambling, pure and simple, and the house — always — wins.

mtpelion.4562:

If you were to buy the 500 keys today it would cost you:

1. 5293g75s00c If using Gold
2. $781.25 If using Cash
2a. If the gems bought with cash were converted to gold instead, you’d get 3825g00s00c

So the question is: Is it even possible to come close to recouping either 1. or 2a. in game gold through Black Lion Chests?

The answer appears to be a hearty “NO” (we’re probably talking thousands of gold in losses unless you get your ticket skins when they are 1 ticket each and hold them until they increase in value enough to offset) which leads into a second question: Are the non-saleable items worth the amount of gold you are losing?

That’s kind of a personal question that I leave up to you.

Just don’t make the mistake of buying Keys for any kind of financial reason. They are gambling, pure and simple, and the house — always — wins.

With that kind of gold, he could have bought a legendary right off. When would ArenaNet actually come up with items that financially makes sense, other than converting our gems into gold?

DarkSpirit.7046:

With that kind of gold, he could have bought a legendary right off.

The more I look at that list, the more I wonder why anyone would ever buy a Key from the gem store.

I’ll stick to the rare map completion key from now on.

I don’t buy keys from the gemstore. I’ve had a few drop, plus the ones from the personal stories, and every single last one of them has resulted in complete crap. BL Chests are a joke.

Friend just got a permanent bank contract from a few of BL chests. It is just RNG.

The last time I opened 15 chests I got 1 hairstyle kit and 2 makeover kits.. How did he only get 1 makeover kit out of 500? O_o

Sir Kaboomski.1508:

The last time I opened 15 chests I got 1 hairstyle kit and 2 makeover kits.. How did he only get 1 makeover kit out of 500? O_o

I’m pretty sure your result was the oddity.

Wouldn’t it be just delicious for Anet to make BL keys free for like… 2 hours on one day. And just watch as every last BL chest on the TP disappears, and the lucky people to be logged on at the time are rewarded with a treasure trove of goodies…

DarkSpirit.7046:

When would ArenaNet actually come up with items that financially makes sense, other than converting our gems into gold?

It’s a lottery, it’s not supposed to make financial sense.

Gibson.4036:

DarkSpirit.7046:

When would ArenaNet actually come up with items that financially makes sense, other than converting our gems into gold?

It’s a lottery, it’s not supposed to make financial sense.

At such odds, it is not a lottery, it is a scam!

DarkSpirit.7046:

At such odds, it is not a lottery, it is a scam!

You do realize all lotteries worth winning have even worse odds?

Right?

RemiRome.8495:

DarkSpirit.7046:

At such odds, it is not a lottery, it is a scam!

You do realize all lotteries worth winning have even worse odds?

Right?

Except that those lotteries actually pay you in cash.
Not virtual goods.

Minos.5168:

RemiRome.8495:

DarkSpirit.7046:

At such odds, it is not a lottery, it is a scam!

You do realize all lotteries worth winning have even worse odds?

Right?

Except that those lotteries actually pay you in cash.
Not virtual goods.

Took the words right out of my mouth!

The multiplicative factor in value, of a real world lotty is much higher, if you win. Considering the investment cost, the odds, and the value you obtain if you win, it is just not worth it.

Xenon.4537:

Wouldn’t it be just delicious for Anet to make BL keys free for like… 2 hours on one day. And just watch as every last BL chest on the TP disappears, and the lucky people to be logged on at the time are rewarded with a treasure trove of goodies…

They might actually give a free key one of these days. Not like it would make a huge difference since the personal story already gives more than that.

If it’s not worth it to you, then don’t buy it. It’s worth it to some others, so they’ll buy it.

Interesting, but not surprising.
With ~4300g spent, at least we should get a single permanent contract that we can sell for ~2500g, which seems to be a more fair trade to do so.

One is sure; I will not buy the CHANCE to get something.
And I would suggest it to anyone else…

While I dislike BLCs along with a lot of others, I will say that technically, you always get something. Opening a BLC for something specific is never a great idea as the RNG will tend to be against you (sadly). But, if you are the sort of gamer who looks at all the possible items in the chests and thinks each one has worth to you in some way, then each time you open a chest you get something out of it.

Obviously, that doesn’t necessarily make the cost any less disproportionate to what you are obtaining at the end of it. But that’s a slightly different argument.

Hey, that’s my video you’re talking about. Im glad you enjoyed it

Avelos.6798:

If it’s not worth it to you, then don’t buy it. It’s worth it to some others, so they’ll buy it.

It’s not worth it to anyone, and no one see’s it as worth it. The people that buy it have an addiction that is being exploited.

Behellagh.1468:

Law of Big Numbers when dealing with RNG should show a greater tendency toward actual odds. So 500 chests gives us a practical number of 14 tickets. That’s much lower than I inspected. The 1 in 5 for scraps is close to what I expected but the 1 in 125 for an actual ticket is much lower than I expected.

Your mistake is thinking that 500 is a large enough number. It’s not a large number. Ten thousand is a large number.

DarcShriek.5829:

Behellagh.1468:

Law of Big Numbers when dealing with RNG should show a greater tendency toward actual odds. So 500 chests gives us a practical number of 14 tickets. That’s much lower than I inspected. The 1 in 5 for scraps is close to what I expected but the 1 in 125 for an actual ticket is much lower than I expected.

Your mistake is thinking that 500 is a large enough number. It’s not a large number. Ten thousand is a large number.

By that logic, if we were sampling ants for whatever reason, 10,000 isn’t a large enough number, we’d need 100 million.

Sample size is dependent on what is being sampled. For a overpriced RNG item in a game, I’d say 500 is as good a sample size as any, considering MOST people are not going to open anywhere even remotely close to that many chests in the entire time they play the game.

No 500 is plenty even when the drop rate odds are, say, over 10%.

And it’s the Law of Large Numbers, my bad.

thaooo.5320:

Avelos.6798:

If it’s not worth it to you, then don’t buy it. It’s worth it to some others, so they’ll buy it.

It’s not worth it to anyone, and no one see’s it as worth it. The people that buy it have an addiction that is being exploited.

It’s called gambling. The player loses 99% of the time. That’s capitalizing on something that works. Any real life gambling situation is exactly the same.

Avelos.6798:

It’s called gambling. The player loses 99% of the time. That’s capitalizing on something that works. Any real life gambling situation is exactly the same.

99% of the time? Not even close! Maybe in a lottery yes.

DarcShriek.5829:

Behellagh.1468:

Law of Big Numbers when dealing with RNG should show a greater tendency toward actual odds. So 500 chests gives us a practical number of 14 tickets. That’s much lower than I inspected. The 1 in 5 for scraps is close to what I expected but the 1 in 125 for an actual ticket is much lower than I expected.

Your mistake is thinking that 500 is a large enough number. It’s not a large number. Ten thousand is a large number.

Sure “big” is a relative term. Even if you don’t think that 500 chests is a big enough number, 500 chests cost ~4200g to open which should be a big enough number for most people.

If you spent that kind of gold which could have easily gotten you a good legendary right off the TP, but instead you got no where near that amount from chests, then that shows that chests are not good investments in general.

If ArenaNet wants me to buy keys, then they need to give a much better returns for my investment. And for those who say that this is a lottery – would you pay $4200 for a lottery ticket that would return to you only a small fraction of that amount, 99% of the time?

The problem with ArenaNet’s gem store is that it is not so much a problem with Pay-to-Win, it is Pay-to-Lose!

You want “big numbers” and rate of return.

The winning Powerball this Wednesday sold 85.6 million tickets and had a jackpot winner for $242.2 million lump sum. For $2 you would earn on average, $0.36 ignoring the jackpot, $1.74 including the jackpot. BTW there wasn’t a jackpot winner for 15 drawings. That means for $32 (15 misses and one hit) the average payout per ticket was $7.14.

This is just for comparison sake.

Gambler’s fallacy run amok it seems. Although I must say I’m really feeling like brushing up on my probability maths all of a sudden.

Sir Kaboomski.1508:

The last time I opened 15 chests I got 1 hairstyle kit and 2 makeover kits.. How did he only get 1 makeover kit out of 500? O_o

I got a precursor from 20 gold worth of rares. How can people not get precursors from 1000+ rares? O_o

Trixie.7614:

Sir Kaboomski.1508:

The last time I opened 15 chests I got 1 hairstyle kit and 2 makeover kits.. How did he only get 1 makeover kit out of 500? O_o

I got a precursor from 20 gold worth of rares. How can people not get precursors from 1000+ rares? O_o

Try doing it again and see if it’s clearer .

id like to see more keys turn up in game. GW2wiki says they can drop from mobs but im pretty sure thats a lie.

Trixie.7614:

Sir Kaboomski.1508:

The last time I opened 15 chests I got 1 hairstyle kit and 2 makeover kits.. How did he only get 1 makeover kit out of 500? O_o

I got a precursor from 20 gold worth of rares. How can people not get precursors from 1000+ rares? O_o

Because probability is more complicated than that.

CureForLiving.5360:

Trixie.7614:

Sir Kaboomski.1508:

The last time I opened 15 chests I got 1 hairstyle kit and 2 makeover kits.. How did he only get 1 makeover kit out of 500? O_o

I got a precursor from 20 gold worth of rares. How can people not get precursors from 1000+ rares? O_o

Because probability is more complicated than that.

theres a 50% chance to get a precursor. Either you get one or you dont.

Except that “you don’t” is 99.999999999% more common then “you get one”

Dabrixmgp.4758:

id like to see more keys turn up in game. GW2wiki says they can drop from mobs but im pretty sure thats a lie.

I actually got one from a mob drop a week ago. I almost spat my drink on my keyboard. I think I would have been less shocked by a precursor