Guild Wars 2

Monocle’s [Light armor] value is 250g currently, a few months back it was 29g only.
I’d like to get an expert’s opinion regarding that situation, should I sell it, or perhaps wait for the prices to go higher?
Thanks.

As with all items…
Look at the supply picture. Can it be currently obtained in the game? (That I know of, no)
Is it likely to be reintroduced?
Is anything similar likely to be introduced? (Skins, the answer is almost always a ‘yes’)
How much would anyone willingly pay for it?

If it gets reintroduced before you sell it, you’re sunk. If its not likely to be reintroduced, there are few better long-term investments, but if anything similar hits the market, you may face pitting your hyper rare item against a similar common item, and suddenly your 300g item hit only fetch a few silver.

End of the day: holding onto it is a gamble. Selling it is also a gamble. Do research: what similar items are there in method of obtaining them. Were they reintroduced later? What similar items are there by look? Would players use any of them as cheap alternatives?

Only after doing all of that would I even consider holding it – there are other items I know much better in the game, that I trust to hold value, or only slowly lose it. If it seems too popular, I’d drop it in a heartbeat, research or no – if players like it so much, anet will very likely introduce it or something similar in the future. Their job is to cater to the players, after all.
//Portable Corpse

How can I know if this item will be back, or either be ‘replaced’ with a similar item?
And I’m quite sure people will pay a decent amount of gold of this item…

Could you give me something that I can start my ‘research’ with? because I have no clue where to start..

Yamagawa.5941:

If it gets reintroduced before you sell it, you’re sunk. If its not likely to be reintroduced, there are few better long-term investments, but if anything similar hits the market, you may face pitting your hyper rare item against a similar common item, and suddenly your 300g item hit only fetch a few silver.

This is not necessarily true for all items in the game. For example, take a look at Endless Dolyak Tonics; the transformation of this tonic is also included in Endless Toymakers’ Tonics too. If you compare their respective prices, the Dolyak tonic is 2-3 times more expensive purely due to the rarity/exclusivity of this item.

In the case of monocles, if however, a similar item does get reintroduced, it is more than plausible that perhaps the price of monocles may indeed take a hit, but I’m willing to wager that it will never sink to the value of silvers just because the supply of monocles seem to be quite limited.

Analysis of the supply of Monocles:

- Monocles dropped from Aetherblade Retreat dungeon chest for only around 2 weeks
- Aetherblade Retreat was a rather tricky and time consuming dungeon to run
- Supply of Monocles quicky diminished over the course of a few months (not sure if hoarded or just natural demand)
- Monocles are soulbound on use
- There are no alternatives to acquire monocles except through the TP (for now, at least)

Of course, no one can accurately predict the future so it is safe to say that it is impossible to tell how the market shapes up in the future. A smart economical guess only reduces risk.

yarINvincible.1243:

Could you give me something that I can start my ‘research’ with? because I have no clue where to start..

Look to what’s happened with other items in the history of the game. Look to what’s happened in the previous incarnation of the game (GW1), but take that data with a grain of salt, the two games are very different. Only A-Net can say what they will put out and when, and they generally don’t until a few days prior. It’s a gamble. Personally, I prefer sure things.

Absent proper research, in your shoes I’d hang onto it for 8-10 months from the start of the event, then drop it into the market — Anet has tended to repeat things on a annual basis in GW1, sometimes repeating reward items and sometimes with new reward items that are similar. Those repeating events tended to be around holidays which isn’t true of the Aetherblade content – It may truly be a unique item, never to be reissued. Or the aetherblades may strike back, and oh look… the monocle mark 2.

End of the day tho, its your monocle, your choice, and you risk either of:

• selling it too late and getting nothing,
• selling it too early and getting only a fraction of what you might otherwise make.

//Portable Corpse

Wow 250 g I would so sell it lol. You never know if something similar will be available and it will crash.. but at the same time it could very well go up and never be seen again. Wow though, 250g now or maybe 500 in 6 months- I guess it depends on if you want to gamble on it going up and if you could invest that money now to make more than it would be worth in the future.

Sigh..

I bought three of these the day they were discontinued. I actually bought them at around 85g, which was the peak of the price during that time. The price remained steady for a few months and I eventually sold them at a loss to fund my Meteor/Eternity.

I would have made a total profit of 210G

-__________-

It’s normal for prices to spike at the end of an event, and then sink a bit. Just people reacting to the “no more supply” signals.

Another question is whether you’d be happy to make 250 gold and not hate yourself for having “lost” any further profit from holding onto it even longer. Just like in RL, if you have enough money to buy your basic needs and a comfortable “whim level” on top of that, why worry about squeezing out even more for your wallet?

An update!
There are no more Monocoles [light armor] in the black lion key.
What should I do if I want to sell it? the last price was for 250g, should I raise it or keep it 250g? And I raise it, by how much?

yarINvincible.1243:

An update!
There are no more Monocoles [light armor] in the black lion key.
What should I do if I want to sell it? the last price was for 250g, should I raise it or keep it 250g? And I raise it, by how much?

Hold it!

The risk of it dropping down significantly is pretty low, and the price could go up higher. Do not sell unless you are desperate for gold.

I’m pretty sure there are others with the monocle in stock. Let them assume the risk of posting first, as I’m sure you will get undercut quickly if you made the 1st move.

you lose gold when the item dont bring you 100% in 7-8 weeks
when you have to store it longer its a waste

my golden rule

so you should check the price now and think “will it be 100% more in 7-8 weeks? 500g?”
when not than sell it and use the gold to make gold – with only 10% per week you make more

When it comes to these types of one-off transactions, I find it is useful to set a tolerance margin.

Pick a (realistic) value that you are comfortable with. The 250g mark is pretty safe since that’s what it is going for right now.

Next, set your margins.
For this example, I’ll use 20%.

This means that I will sell this item if the price shifts 20% in either direction (i.e. if it drops to 200g, I’m going to dump it or if it rises to 300g I’m going to list it).

I find that while this process obviously leaves room for a lot of missed opportunity, it beats the heck out of spending a lot of time researching a single item.

I blame manipulation by Chauncey trying to be fancier than he really is.

Ursan.7846:

I blame manipulation by Chauncey trying to be fancier than he really is.

He never deserved 1st anyways, stop kidding yourself.

Some of the recent gemstore armors have included headpieces that kinda look like monacles

1) monocle is likely to keep going up in price. the only reason it won’t is if they re-release it. that part is a gamble
2) think about time-frames when dealing with investments. If you sell now, that’s 632% profit in ~4 months. that’s a pretty good amount. If the sell price goes up to 500g in the next 4 months, that’s only 100% profit. Basically, could you get better profit per time doing something else with those proceeds? (20% profit compounded every week for 4 months would be 1748% profit.)

Not something that I can think of, and I don’t really need gold right now.
I think I’ll just take that chance and see what the future holds.
Thanks.

The other possible factor for a price crash is if ANet releases another monocle down the line that’s even better looking than the current one. It’s a remote possibility, of course, but one that shouldn’t be discounted altogether.

The thing is if you are not a great investor, playing the tp couple of hours every week…. you probably won’t make that 10% on your money per week.

I know I have no idea how to make any money on short term investments, most of my investments are long and mid term. Like now the closest thing I know and everyone knows is that cloth prices will very likely spike when ascended armor is introduced.

On a weekly basis I have no idea what to invest in but if you look at GW1, they did not really reintroduced items. Monocles, as well as halloween weapons, have a potential to be extremely expensive in the future. Sure I have only like 3-4k gold in my assets after a year and people who know the market better have tens of thousands of gold, but I’m not complaining (ghastly shield already costs 30x more than when I bought it, I’m curious what it will be next year).

This is a different case than items from events that come back every year (dragonbash, winteresday…). Fiery and Frost dyes were reintroduced for a couple of days, that was a part of living story as were monocles, but those dyes were always part of the TP. So far it seems unlikely monocles will come back (I can only think of the new Aetherblade fractal where it could drop).

250 gold is not that much for me to sell it. 2000 gold sounds better…so I’ll hold onto all 3 types of monocles I have for now.

McJAC.4739:

The thing is if you are not a great investor, playing the tp couple of hours every week…. you probably won’t make that 10% on your money per week.

250 gold is not that much for me to sell it. 2000 gold sounds better…so I’ll hold onto all 3 types of monocles I have for now.

If you don’t need your coin to buy anything in the near future, ie you have no goal, you can do that. Otherwise, I would not gamble on a price rise, when the opposite could happen through factors outside your control. The aetherblades haven’t exactly left Tyria, so you are taking a gamble. 750g for 3 monocles at a 500 percent profit ratio sounds good enough to me not to take that risk.

Perhaps I could ask the devs if they plan to get the Aetherblades dungeon back or if the monocle will be reintroduced?
Oh and by the way, it’s not 250g now – it’s 600g.

yarINvincible.1243:

Perhaps I could ask the devs if they plan to get the Aetherblades dungeon back or if the monocle will be reintroduced?
Oh and by the way, it’s not 250g now – it’s 600g.

Well that is the listed price.. the buy offers are still at 150. I guess you will see if it sells. Hope it works out for you!

The aether blade dungeon will be coming back as a fractal sometime in the next 6 weeks. The monocle will almost certainly be back in the chest to give people a reason not to reroll to swamp fractal.

Holding is a poor decision imo.

Hahahaha. I called it!

http://www.reddit.com/r/Guildwars2/comments/1qh40g/data_mining_upcoming_features_from_the_nightmares/

I won’t spoil it for you, not directly on this forum, but if this item interests you please go and have a look.

Yup, another monocle in there. It’ll be a different design but since it’s so small, you won’t notice many differences. A monocle is a monocle.

SELL SELL SELL SELL

edit: nevermind, completely missed the ball. The next LS update will be the new fractals.

Possible return of the Jetpack?? Or even a similar looking Jetpack? (Honestly, the current one looks too small on my max-size Charr.)

The most interesting tidbit from that data mine is the possible introduction of the Precursor scavenger hunt though. And it looks as if it’s for the existing Precursors too. Too early to declare a selling frenzy, but it might be a good time to offload stock if you’ve got several.

Yeah I think I’ll just sell it and get over with it.

yarINvincible.1243:

Perhaps I could ask the devs if they plan to get the Aetherblades dungeon back or if the monocle will be reintroduced?
Oh and by the way, it’s not 250g now – it’s 600g.

IF you’re going to sell it you should do it before the next LS release when the Aetherblade Retreat is added to fractals. If they reintroduce the monocle that will probably be the time it happens.

McJAC.4739:

On a weekly basis I have no idea what to invest in but if you look at GW1, they did not really reintroduced items.

Hats: the Canthan new-year issued the same hat every year.
Gear: Christmas was interesting. You had wintergreen and peppermint weapons, one issued only in the first year, the other issued in years 2+
Consumables: these always came back year after year, sometimes with added kinds. (oooOOOOoooo…. rainbow candy canes…..)

If its holiday linked, odds are good it, or something very similar, will come back (except apparently, hats).
If its story event linked… Needs more data.

So how can I know if Anet plans on getting the Monocoles back?
It’s kind of a risk isn’kitten should I wait a little bit more or just sell it?