Guild Wars 2

I watched the supply of Silk Scraps spiral down from millions down to nothing. The price of silk is probably about to go through the roof due to tomorrow’s patch. Thick leather is doing the same thing. I would buy it fast while its still at 8 copper.

Event items Price amount total
10 Fortune Scraps 0
150 Pieces of Candy Corn 16 150 2400
300 Pieces of Zhaitaffy 15 300 4500
Cloth
225 Jute Scrap 12 225 2700
75 Wool Scrap 30 75 2250
30 Cotton Scrap 73 30 2190
45 Linen Scrap 74 45 3330
250 Silk Scrap 13 250 3250
20 Gossamer Scrap 269 20 5380
Wood
250 Green Wood Log 13 250 3250
60 Soft Wood Log 37 60 2220
35 Seasoned Wood Log 70 35 2450
65 Hard Wood Log 31 65 2015
55 Elder Wood Log 38 55 2090
30 Ancient Wood Log 85 30 2550
Leather
500 Rawhide Leather Section 7 500 3500
400 Thin Leather Section 7 400 2800
90 Coarse Leather Section 28 90 2520
60 Rugged Leather Section 41 60 2460
250 Thick Leather Section 8 250 2000
185 Hardened Leather Section 49 185 9065
Ore
125 Copper Ore 16 125 2000
55 Iron ore 43 55 2365
75 Silver Ore 29 75 2175
30 Gold Ore 100 30 3000
25 Platinum Ore 84 25 2100
50 Mithril Ore 41 50 2050
8 Orichalcum ore 396 8 3168

I can go back to my usual habit of salvaging everything. \o/

Well. I saw three million thick leather squares getting sold in 1 hour.

Gotta hand it to them; it was definitely effective! I’m glad this happened, it was very, very necessary. I take my virtual hat off to whoever came up with this idea.

Buttercup.5871:

Gotta hand it to them; it was definitely effective! I’m glad this happened, it was very, very necessary. I take my virtual hat off to whoever came up with this idea.

John Smith is the master of all the good ideas. Seriously, though, I’m willing to bet that 3/4 of those items, at a minimum, will end up back on the TP during the “sell, sell, sell” phase of every patch bubble.

People are dumb. Even at 8c, 250 thick leather sections are less cost effective than 50 mithril ore (at 38c) or 30 cotton scraps (at 66c). Silk scraps are just as bad.

Jabberwock.9014:

People are dumb. Even at 8c, 250 thick leather sections are less cost effective than 50 mithril ore (at 38c) or 30 cotton scraps (at 66c).

I think the thing was (saying was because both silk and thick leather are more than 8c each now) that thick leather and silk were only 1c above the merchant price and the majority of people are probably trying to make some money with very little risk of loss (having to sell at 11c to break even/be slightly above even).

Jabberwock.9014:

People are dumb. Even at 8c, 250 thick leather sections are less cost effective than 50 mithril ore (at 38c) or 30 cotton scraps (at 66c). Silk scraps are even worse bang for your buck.

But they dont have the mass surplus that Silk and Thick leather did. Silk and Thick Leather had no where to go but up.

They never would have gotten this low in the first place if T5 fine-Mats (large/potents) drop rates weren’t so c**k blocked all the time by D.R.

Guardian Of Tyria.6397:

Jabberwock.9014:

People are dumb. Even at 8c, 250 thick leather sections are less cost effective than 50 mithril ore (at 38c) or 30 cotton scraps (at 66c).

I think the thing was (saying was because both silk and thick leather are more than 8c each now) that thick leather and silk were only 1c above the merchant price and the majority of people are probably trying to make some money with very little risk of loss (having to sell at 11c to break even/be slightly above even).

I was buying stacks for 20 silver at the 8c price… if i sell a stack for 9 c its 20 silver after the TP cut.

Nope it’s 19.13 silver a stack if sold at 9c. Still better than merchanting at 7s (loss of 2.5s a stack). But if silk scraps remain above 8c, all involved mats will remain higher including mithril ore since all (lower priced) mats will rise to reach price equilibrium. Inefficient mats like orichalcum ore will of course be unaffected.

Camaro Charr.2805:

I was buying stacks for 20 silver at the 8c price… if i sell a stack for 9 c its 20 silver after the TP cut.

Stack bought for 8c each: 20s
Stack listed for 9c each: 1s listing fee
Stack sold for 9c each: 22.5s
Stack TP fee for 9c each: 2.25s
Value earned at 9c each: 19.25s
Profit: -0.75s

The best part about this is that if you manage to sell these at some point in the bubble for double the value you bought them for, you make a whopping…

Stack bought for 8c each: 20s
Stack listed for 16c each: 2s listing fee
Stack sold for 16c each: 40s
Stack TP fee for 16c each: 4s
Value earned at 16c each: 34s
Profit: 14s

14 silver per stack. Let’s assume you fill an entire 20 slotter with these and manage to actually sell 5000 of the items at twice their old value… With those assumptions, you make… 2.8g. You have used 20 inventory spaces of investment space for 2.8g of profit.

Come on. Even bad TP investors make like 10x that with the same inventory space. The worst part of this is the sell stage of this bubble is going to probably cut off way before it ever reaches 16c in value per section… And what’s worse is that you’re going to have to actually have people willing to buy thousands of the things to make you your profit. This is bad business, don’t get sucked in.

Camaro Charr.2805:

Guardian Of Tyria.6397:

Jabberwock.9014:

People are dumb. Even at 8c, 250 thick leather sections are less cost effective than 50 mithril ore (at 38c) or 30 cotton scraps (at 66c).

I think the thing was (saying was because both silk and thick leather are more than 8c each now) that thick leather and silk were only 1c above the merchant price and the majority of people are probably trying to make some money with very little risk of loss (having to sell at 11c to break even/be slightly above even).

I was buying stacks for 20 silver at the 8c price… if i sell a stack for 9 c its 20 silver after the TP cut.

TP has a 15% total cut, some of it is taken up front when you post an item, and some is taken when it’s sold.

9c*250 = 22.5 silver

22.5 silver – 3.375 silver (15% of 22.5) = 19.125 silver (call it 19s12c cause the TP probably rounds down)

now do the same thing at 11c each and you get 23.375 (roughly 23s37c)

for 10c it would be 21.25 or 21s25c

So I guess I was wrong, you’d need to sell at 10c each to break even.

So whythekitten does TP say projected profit 20 silver? after the cut? whats the point in that?

Rule of thumb is pricing at least 20% higher than cost to make a profit.

You pay the listing fee of 5% too. That isn’t noted in projected profit. Just multiply total by .85 whenever you want to find out net gross.

Rising Dusk.2408:

Camaro Charr.2805:

I was buying stacks for 20 silver at the 8c price… if i sell a stack for 9 c its 20 silver after the TP cut.

Stack bought for 8c each: 20s
Stack listed for 9c each: 1s listing fee
Stack sold for 9c each: 22.5s
Stack TP fee for 9c each: 2.25s
Value earned at 9c each: 19.25s
Profit: -0.75s

The best part about this is that if you manage to sell these at some point in the bubble for double the value you bought them for, you make a whopping…

Stack bought for 8c each: 20s
Stack listed for 16c each: 2s listing fee
Stack sold for 16c each: 40s
Stack TP fee for 16c each: 4s
Value earned at 16c each: 34s
Profit: 14s

14 silver per stack. Let’s assume you fill an entire 20 slotter with these and manage to actually sell 5000 of the items at twice their old value… With those assumptions, you make… 2.8g. You have used 20 inventory spaces of investment space for 2.8g of profit.

Come on. Even bad TP investors make like 10x that with the same inventory space. The worst part of this is the sell stage of this bubble is going to probably cut off way before it ever reaches 16c in value per section… And what’s worse is that you’re going to have to actually have people willing to buy thousands of the things to make you your profit. This is bad business, don’t get sucked in.

Except if you leave it in the pick up part of the TP it doesn’t take up inventory space, so it wouldn’t matter if you have 10 stacks or 500 stacks. Plus, you won’t be sitting on this stuff for that long…you’ll either use it to get the supply boxes yourself or sell it. It’s not meant for a long term investment.

Guardian Of Tyria.6397:

Except if you leave it in the pick up part of the TP it doesn’t take up inventory space, so it wouldn’t matter if you have 10 stacks or 500 stacks. Plus, you won’t be sitting on this stuff for that long…you’ll either use it to get the supply boxes yourself or sell it. It’s not meant for a long term investment.

If you do this, you cannot pick up anything else from the TP until you decide to commit the inventory space, effectively gutting 100% of any other investments you could’ve made in the time period. I am a bad TP investor and make at least five times the net gain I presented above whenever I do some investing, and none of that profit earned ever puts a total stop to my picking up things from the TP.

Actually, already on this bubble my current investments have about 30x the ROI I presented above with thick leather sections. Already my inventory space has done more work for me than it could with thick leather.

Rising Dusk.2408:

Guardian Of Tyria.6397:

Except if you leave it in the pick up part of the TP it doesn’t take up inventory space, so it wouldn’t matter if you have 10 stacks or 500 stacks. Plus, you won’t be sitting on this stuff for that long…you’ll either use it to get the supply boxes yourself or sell it. It’s not meant for a long term investment.

If you do this, you cannot pick up anything else from the TP until you decide to commit the inventory space, effectively gutting 100% of any other investments you could’ve made in the time period. I am a bad TP investor and make at least five times the net gain I presented above whenever I do some investing, and none of that profit earned ever puts a total stop to my picking up things from the TP.

Actually, already on this bubble my current investments have about 30x the ROI I presented above with thick leather sections. Already my inventory space has done more work for me than it could with thick leather.

Eh, I just have a different style of trading it sounds like. I don’t do it every day, I don’t find micromanaging the TP fun, but I do take advantage of events and limited time items. Normally I’m behind the curve when it comes to the items used in events (with work and everything) but this time I was able to snag some of the items.

My investments are typically items I sit on for a while while I’m doing WvW, PvE, or real life stuff….like Halloween items, F&F dye, and other consumables. I typically deal in items that are in the gold for price, not copper, so I’m fine locking up the TP for a bit cause I don’t use it all that much.

If something else pops up on this event I’ll either dump some of the leather/silk or store it on my mules (since I only really play 3 characters and have 11 slots).

But that’s just my style. Not the most “efficient” but works good enough for me.

If you still have silk or leather, dump it now. It’s already far overpriced compared to other mats. It’s just a big bubble waiting to burst, and it probably will in the next few hours.

Jabberwock.9014:

If you still have silk or leather, dump it now. It’s already far overpriced compared to other mats. It’s just a big bubble waiting to burst, and it probably will in the next few hours.

It will keep going up. If there is anything you can count on it is people to make bad investments and keep buying well past the profitability point.

plus right now all that leather is in holding. A lot of it will get dumped into boxes tomorrow which will initially be more profitable then dumping the leather.

Why are only leather and silk going up though? Can’t you use the other material to trade for the supply box too?

Gotta hand it to ANet. They solved the problem of the glut of Silk/Thick Leather on the TP verrrry nicely.

Shame that the Supply Box vendor isn’t a permanent addition, or this could be a nice way of making sure there’s always demand for unwanted basic crafting materials. (At least until people get tired of the shinies from the Zephyrites.)

laokoko.7403:

Why are only leather and silk going up though? Can’t you use the other material to trade for the supply box too?

Everything has gone up. And yes you can apparently can use other mats to trade.

Mithril ores have gone from 24-25c to 38-40c
http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/19700

Zhaitaffy has gone from 3-4c to 13-15c
http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/43319

jeatsen.2378:

laokoko.7403:

Why are only leather and silk going up though? Can’t you use the other material to trade for the supply box too?

Everything has gone up. And yes you can apparently can use other mats to trade.

Mithril ores have gone from 24-25c to 38-40c
http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/19700

Zhaitaffy has gone from 3-4c to 13-15c
http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/43319

Why would anyone buy silk at more than 8 copper. When they could do the same with platinum ore. Did I miss something?

Herd mentality. People remember Silk as being dirt cheap, see the price shooting up, and quickly jump on the bandwagon to join the rush without considering that they could get the same for cheaper using different materials.

Or maybe people have an incorrect assumption that using more expensive mats for the Supply Boxes will give them a better chance at better items.

Too bad food isn’t in there. As it stands, a cook can’t make any profit off of anything due to outrageous supply, and low demand.

ZudetGambeous.9573:

Jabberwock.9014:

If you still have silk or leather, dump it now. It’s already far overpriced compared to other mats. It’s just a big bubble waiting to burst, and it probably will in the next few hours.

It will keep going up. If there is anything you can count on it is people to make bad investments and keep buying well past the profitability point.

plus right now all that leather is in holding. A lot of it will get dumped into boxes tomorrow which will initially be more profitable then dumping the leather.

You might be right lol. Never underestimate the power of human stupidity. I feel when the patch actually hits things might stabilize however, since actual players rather than just speculators will be buying the mats.

Actually players are buying the mats now…

Why do you assume this is all speculation, like ‘actual players’ can somehow never read future patch notes, or be told by guildies, etc?

Yeah, I just wonder sometimes if those who have access to the ‘Live Server’ and get early access to some of the information are using that information to their/their friend’s advantage.

Not accusing anyone of anything, but could be a little ‘insider information’ type of thing if people are profitting from early knowledge of things like this.

Haven’t seen anything to indicate that this is happening, just commenting on the potential.

Mad Rasputin.7809:

Yeah, I just wonder sometimes if those who have access to the ‘Live Server’ and get early access to some of the information are using that information to their/their friend’s advantage.

Not accusing anyone of anything, but could be a little ‘insider information’ type of thing if people are profitting from early knowledge of things like this.

Haven’t seen anything to indicate that this is happening, just commenting on the potential.

No speculations to be had , the better question is why wouldn’t they.

TheOneNOnlyGeneralBama.9586:

Mad Rasputin.7809:

Yeah, I just wonder sometimes if those who have access to the ‘Live Server’ and get early access to some of the information are using that information to their/their friend’s advantage.

Not accusing anyone of anything, but could be a little ‘insider information’ type of thing if people are profitting from early knowledge of things like this.

Haven’t seen anything to indicate that this is happening, just commenting on the potential.

No speculations to be had , the better question is why wouldn’t they.

They wouldn’t because it would be in violation of a possible NDA or simply because it’s morally wrong. Those things however, do not necessarily stop people. I have been on test servers for two multiplayer games. While neither game had a functioning trading post between players, there were still areas where people could take advantage of insider info. In both games there were instances of people taking advantage of this info, and these wrongs were never even known to the public.

Rising Dusk.2408:

Seriously, though, I’m willing to bet that 3/4 of those items, at a minimum, will end up back on the TP during the “sell, sell, sell” phase of every patch bubble.

+1

Usual stuff. New application for something, ppl go berserk, buy it all, try some, realize the rewards, sell back up.

Also, supply for those things is so insane that i’d expect prices to drop back to normal very soon.

Remember the ecto jumping due to “we can get T6 dust from it!”?
Now has the same price pre-patch. But got a decent use and sink.

Same deal here.

I’m glad that they decided to drain useless materials from the TP. The increase in value in these materials makes other parts of the game worth playing for the drops.

I have to giggle – whenever I see a rich gold node I think “Hmm, there’s at least a third of a supply box in there…”

The price of silk is back down. The problem I see with this strategy goes deeper than the supply of the material – there is simply no sustained demand for t5 silk and leather, unlike mithril and wood (which can be used to craft/mystic toilet weapons). Rare armor is basically not worth making.

Isn’t this just a temporary solution to a permanent problem? Tell me I’m wrong and I’m missing something.

Don’t forget that jewelry also sucks up mithril ore.
Who needs t5 silk or leather when rare dropped armor is cheaper on the TP, and is slotted with a rune?
What they could do is increase the amount of silk needed for an 18 slot bag to 1000 bolts/squares, but that would require an entire revision of the bag system, which moreover is not profitable for anet given that they want to encourage selling inventory slots.

Reduce t5 leather and silk drop rates and replace by something else. Problem solved.