Guild Wars 2

Thanks for the busted Precursor system, ANet.

Recently there were just a couple of “The Lover”s on the BLTP. All pretty stable around the ~330g mark with asking prices never jumping above ~275.

Within a day, all of said precursors have vanished, and all of the cronies of the person (or people… also maybe not even cronies but just that insanely wealthy person himself) that bought them up have placed hefty bids that have risen to 340g. (I noticed this an hour ago, when there were 3 fewer bids and it was asked for at ~307. Which means in 1 hour it has jumped almost 40g, something it hadn’t done in a long time.)

Instead of forcing the system to correct for me, I’ll just say: Kitten-kitteny-kitten you, person that’s driving this up to 550g.

According to supply and demand, if nobody buys it, it will come down.

Supply and demand is a load of old codswallop. Have a nice day.

It’s not just The Lover, it’s most of the popular precursors. The supply is low enough that a small group of individuals is controlling the entire market.

If this is not happening as many suspect it is, if there isn’t just one or two people controlling all the dawn, dusk, the legend, the lover, and all the other expensive precursors can someone from Anet just confirm it and put this to bed.

If it’s just normal market behavior can some staff just look at it and tell us there are multiple people placing these orders up.

I could be manipulation or it could be the market. I image many people (richer than I) were waiting to find out about the precursor scavenger hunt. Why spend 300+ gold when you can get one by playing the game.

Finding out that the scavenger hunt has been shelved (delayed, not implemented yet, coming maybe this fall, whatever) in favor of yet another token system, those people decided to buy.

Looking at http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/29178 (using 3 day view, and displaying volume of actual sales listings) it seems to me that if there is 1 person/group doing this, it’s only with the last 2 that were left for sale after supply ran down from 6 listings three days ago.

I’m basing this on the length of time that it took between “sales” for the last few listed items and the fact that only 2 were relisted at the higher price (a third has been relisted at a lower price in the last hour and a half as at time of writing this).

I’m still not certain that this is an example of someone attempting to control the price, as there was a large time gap between the last 2 disappearing and the same number “reappearing” (approx. 38 hours). Enough time that someone was able to list and (presumably) sell one at a marginally higher than normal price while they were off the market.

I made a post about this a few weeks ago because i noticed the same thing. Around late December the supply was about 28 and 140g for the cheapest one. About 2 days later it went down to 8 supply and 200+g. Luckily i got The Lover from the Mystic Forge but yeah I agree someone was buying them out. But this isn’t the only precursor this is happening to and whenever the scavenger hunt comes, hopefully the people controlling the market get burned.

Only a hand full of people control the pre/legend market. They control it like a cartel and I dont blame them one bit. Monopoly is the best way to extort prices from people until everyone stops buying them.
Either stand up and take responsible action or join them the choice is yours. Anet will not do anything to hurt their friends.

I really do find it very unlikely that this is happening. I don’t see Anet allowing it to go on if it were. Wouldn’t that violate their free market philosophy?

SteepledHat.1345:

I really do find it very unlikely that this is happening. I don’t see Anet allowing it to go on if it were. Wouldn’t that violate their free market philosophy?

There’s a member in another thread that said he has a friend that at one time owned 15 Dusks and was doing exactly this. Even going as far as mentioning that that friend had him place multiple offers for Dusk to drive the price up.

Here’s the link: https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/crafting/Precursor-Scavenger-Hunt-1/first#post1084738

It’s happening; ANet is allowing it. And I don’t blame the people either. I’d be doing it too if I knew what the kitten any of this meant at launch. I loathe the system that says you must work hard for it, but rely on luck to actually get it.

Also, @ xWESTsidex.4980: How many tries? I’d love to, but simply don’t trust the “RNG” system. It’s a horrible way to “earn” something.

Luckily i got The Lover from the Mystic Forge but yeah I agree someone was buying them out. But this isn’t the only precursor this is happening to and whenever the scavenger hunt comes, hopefully the people controlling the market get burned.

@Fizzlepip.5218

It only took me about 4 tries with lvl 80 exotic shortbows so maybe around 30-35g. It was extremely lucky trust me. Its risky but it can pay off.

SteepledHat.1345:

I really do find it very unlikely that this is happening. I don’t see Anet allowing it to go on if it were. Wouldn’t that violate their free market philosophy?

This happening IS a Free Market behavior.

If people will pay that much, people will have to pay that much.

I’m pretty sure collusion is an agent against a free market. That’s what the TC is accusing them of. Price fixing by controlling the supply.

It doesn’t take a lot of collusion when supply is as limited as it is (2 listed on the TP), but they technically don’t control supply as new precursors can enter the market at any time. It’s the rarity of this item that makes this sort of behavior possible (if this is what has occurred in this specific case), but that’s something ArenaNet are intending to address.

SteepledHat.1345:

I’m pretty sure collusion is an agent against a free market. That’s what the TC is accusing them of. Price fixing by controlling the supply.

You are right collusion is a monopolistic tactic to keep prices at a significant raised rate well beyond what would normally be acceptable. Anet wont do anything or hurt their friends so dont expect any action.
You either boycott it altogether to prove a point – IE no one buys any pre/legend therefore remove the profit motive
OR
Join them and pay the toll.
I dont blame them either I wish I had converted money to gems at the start and grabbed everything on the TP and sat and did that at the start. Or (not again) exploit since most of the time anet doesnt ban them. Karma/godskull/araha ect.

Astraea.6075:

It doesn’t take a lot of collusion when supply is as limited as it is (2 listed on the TP), but they technically don’t control supply as new precursors can enter the market at any time. It’s the rarity of this item that makes this sort of behavior possible (if this is what has occurred in this specific case), but that’s something ArenaNet are intending to address.

The supply is kept artificially low, a small Cartel buys up precursors as they enter the market in order to force an artificial scarcity and drive the price up. This allows them to fulfill the demand at whatever rate they wish at artificially inflated prices.

If people are buying them it doesn’t matter if its an ebil cartel or someone who just got one by chance putting it up for what appears to be the going rate – its only the going rate if someone buys it.

When the price gets up high enough that people won’t pay it, the sellers are penalized for their listing fees and the true value of the item is finally known.

So far it seems people are still buying them. So maybe these daring speculators aren’t actually charging enough yet…

The supply is low because the drop rate is incredibly low UNLESS you forge lvl 80 exotics, then it seems pretty much true random what lvl 80 exotic you’ll get returned and seeing as there aren’t that many within a weapon type it often means you’ll approx on average spend 150g before getting a precursor. It’s how I’ve been making my gold the last several weeks, it seems like a gamble and it might be but I’m making significant returns on it.

Hmm. Anyone know the odds of getting a precursor from the MF? Anyone recorded a bunch of trials? The L80 exotic market could technically limit the maximum price for a precursor if people were willing to play the averages. However, gambles are sketchy and most people don’t like it, and most L80 rare or exotic combines are quite unprofitable without hitting a precursor jackpot.

Kinda like how pebbles→silver doubloons limited price manipulation on that market.

(Personally, I don’t mess around with going for precursors, since I’m happy to wait at least 6 more months before really going for a legendary. Long-term goal etc.)

Zyk.3597:

Hmm. Anyone know the odds of getting a precursor from the MF? Anyone recorded a bunch of trials? The L80 exotic market could technically limit the maximum price for a precursor if people were willing to play the averages. However, gambles are sketchy and most people don’t like it, and most L80 rare or exotic combines are quite unprofitable without hitting a precursor jackpot.

Kinda like how pebbles->silver doubloons limited price manipulation on that market.

(Personally, I don’t mess around with going for precursors, since I’m happy to wait at least 6 more months before really going for a legendary. Long-term goal etc.)

I’m not sure the actual % chance at the forge but it is extremely low. The chances of acquiring a precursor via the forge is highest when you use lvl 80 exotics of that same weapon type (ex: 5 exotic shortbows to get The Lover.) It takes some people a few tries and it takes some many tries It’s really all about luck. I got lucky and it took me 4 tries and maybe 30g but for others it might take a lot more than that.

xWESTsidex.4980:

Zyk.3597:

Hmm. Anyone know the odds of getting a precursor from the MF? Anyone recorded a bunch of trials? The L80 exotic market could technically limit the maximum price for a precursor if people were willing to play the averages. However, gambles are sketchy and most people don’t like it, and most L80 rare or exotic combines are quite unprofitable without hitting a precursor jackpot.

Kinda like how pebbles->silver doubloons limited price manipulation on that market.

(Personally, I don’t mess around with going for precursors, since I’m happy to wait at least 6 more months before really going for a legendary. Long-term goal etc.)

I’m not sure the actual % chance at the forge but it is extremely low. The chances of acquiring a precursor via the forge is highest when you use lvl 80 exotics of that same weapon type (ex: 5 exotic shortbows to get The Lover.) It takes some people a few tries and it takes some many tries It’s really all about luck. I got lucky and it took me 4 tries and maybe 30g but for others it might take a lot more than that.

I’ve been doing this for the last month or so. The most I’ve spent so far in trying to get a specific precursor has been just over 400g, on average I’m spending around that 150g mark before getting what I’m after and I’ve turned out 11 precursors so far, it seems reasonably safe.

Your experience is not necessarily typical. I’m sure you know that.

From previous observations (on other types of items), the mystic forge gives approximately a 20% chance to output an item of the next superior class to the 4 you put in, and an 80% chance of giving an item of the same class.

If you put in 4 level 80 exotic weapons, there’s no higher class which can be given, so you have a 100% chance of obtaining an item of the same class of the 4 you just put in – i.e. another level 80 exotic weapon.

I’m guessing every specific exotic has the same chance so to know how many tries you need ON AVERAGE just check how many exotics of that weapon type exist in the game and you’ll know the odds. E.g. let’s say there are 100 different greatsword level 80 exotics, that would mean you’d have 1/100 chance of getting Dusk every time you put in 4 level 80 exotic greatswords in the MF. From there it’s pretty easy to compute the average price for producing any given precursor.

Of course, it’s probability, which means you CAN get unlucky streaks…

No, I think there’s some evidence that precursors have a hand-tuned probability of being forged that is less than expected. It’s also something you can figure out just using common sense:
http://www.gw2spidy.com/type/18/6?rarity_filter=5&min_level=80&max_level=

Not even close to 100 exotic GS, and I’m not entirely sure that crafted exotics are in the MF table (never done L80 exotic combines). Normally, each item has an equal probability within its tier, but this is clearly not the case with precursors – we’d see WAY more being produced and price manip would be extremely difficult as a result. I was curious if anyone had rough data that might point at the hand-tuned probability.

Zyk.3597:

No, I think there’s some evidence that precursors have a hand-tuned probability of being forged that is less than expected. It’s also something you can figure out just using common sense:
http://www.gw2spidy.com/type/18/6?rarity_filter=5&min_level=80&max_level=

Not even close to 100 exotic GS, and I’m not entirely sure that crafted exotics are in the MF table (never done L80 exotic combines). Normally, each item has an equal probability within its tier, but this is clearly not the case with precursors – we’d see WAY more being produced and price manip would be extremely difficult as a result. I was curious if anyone had rough data that might point at the hand-tuned probability.

They are (the lvl 80 crafted exo’s in the MF table that is).

I’m either being consistently lucky and always turning a profit on investment to getting a precursor or they aren’t that difficult to get out with the 4 lvl 80 exotic approach, you just may need a couple hundred gold (ie what I think is holding back most from trying it out, the fear of losing that gold and not getting a precusor)

Fizzlepip.5218:

Also, @ xWESTsidex.4980: How many tries? I’d love to, but simply don’t trust the “RNG” system. It’s a horrible way to “earn” something.

you’ve never played a videogame before have you

Protoavis.9107:

Zyk.3597:

No, I think there’s some evidence that precursors have a hand-tuned probability of being forged that is less than expected. It’s also something you can figure out just using common sense:
http://www.gw2spidy.com/type/18/6?rarity_filter=5&min_level=80&max_level=

Not even close to 100 exotic GS, and I’m not entirely sure that crafted exotics are in the MF table (never done L80 exotic combines). Normally, each item has an equal probability within its tier, but this is clearly not the case with precursors – we’d see WAY more being produced and price manip would be extremely difficult as a result. I was curious if anyone had rough data that might point at the hand-tuned probability.

They are (the lvl 80 crafted exo’s in the MF table that is).

I’m either being consistently lucky and always turning a profit on investment to getting a precursor or they aren’t that difficult to get out with the 4 lvl 80 exotic approach, you just may need a couple hundred gold (ie what I think is holding back most from trying it out, the fear of losing that gold and not getting a precusor)

Ah, thanks for letting me know. I’d hazard a guess that the forge-crafted stuff isn’t in the table, though – Volcanus and such.

Hmm, precursors possibly just aren’t as rare from the MF as suspected if you’re consistently turning a profit. You could be really lucky, I suppose. It’s pretty streaky, I imagine – most combines would represent a massive loss, although some non-precursors ones give a decent profit.

You mean the price corrected itself? If it stays at 340, that’s actually the correct price, otherwise it’ll just come down again. No one is forcing you to buy it at overpriced worth. If you wait, you’ll find out yourself what the correct price is.

Someone tried the same with my target (chaos gun) and it’s slowly going down again.

Zyk.3597:

Protoavis.9107:

Zyk.3597:

No, I think there’s some evidence that precursors have a hand-tuned probability of being forged that is less than expected. It’s also something you can figure out just using common sense:
http://www.gw2spidy.com/type/18/6?rarity_filter=5&min_level=80&max_level=

Not even close to 100 exotic GS, and I’m not entirely sure that crafted exotics are in the MF table (never done L80 exotic combines). Normally, each item has an equal probability within its tier, but this is clearly not the case with precursors – we’d see WAY more being produced and price manip would be extremely difficult as a result. I was curious if anyone had rough data that might point at the hand-tuned probability.

They are (the lvl 80 crafted exo’s in the MF table that is).

I’m either being consistently lucky and always turning a profit on investment to getting a precursor or they aren’t that difficult to get out with the 4 lvl 80 exotic approach, you just may need a couple hundred gold (ie what I think is holding back most from trying it out, the fear of losing that gold and not getting a precusor)

Ah, thanks for letting me know. I’d hazard a guess that the forge-crafted stuff isn’t in the table, though – Volcanus and such.

Hmm, precursors possibly just aren’t as rare from the MF as suspected if you’re consistently turning a profit. You could be really lucky, I suppose. It’s pretty streaky, I imagine – most combines would represent a massive loss, although some non-precursors ones give a decent profit.

Haven’t seen a volcanus yet so that would be likely, although I don’t do greatswords too much just because it feels riskier because they cost more (unlike a lot of other types that you can get for less than 1g50s where you can generally flip the result and roughly not be loosing too much because you might be loosing a gold or two per MF but you’ll get something that sells for 10g+ fairly often to balance that a bit and then BOOM precursor). Do get a lot of the etched shaman stuff which depending on weapon sells for a fair bit, as does anything starting with berserker

SteepledHat.1345:

I really do find it very unlikely that this is happening. I don’t see Anet allowing it to go on if it were. Wouldn’t that violate their free market philosophy?

Anet isn’t allowing it to go on, they’re just taking a long time to implement the fix. They’re clearly not happy with precursor prices. Whether that’s due to a cabal of people smoking cigars in a boiler room and price fixing, or just naturally being scarce in supply, its pretty much irrelevant.

Precursors being ludicrously expensive is something that will not exist forever, due to the coming scavenger hunt. That might be 3 months off, 6 months off, or a year off for all I know. But the choice to pay an inflated price for one now is just that – a conscious choice to pay the high price for one now versus waiting for the fix to come.

I’ve made my choice. I refuse to pay the extortionary prices on the TP, and I refuse to gamble away my gold at the Forge. This leaves me with only one sane option – wait for the patch, and gather the other materials in the meantime.

If people would all boycott and stop buying precursors at so called overpriced rates then it’ll be fine. Obviously, these precursor prices are still considered acceptable to some people.

Lafiel.9372:

If people would all boycott and stop buying precursors at so called overpriced rates then it’ll be fine. Obviously, these precursor prices are still considered acceptable to some people.

And rightly or wrongly, that’s what happens with items that have such limited supply compared to the demand for them. Any price-fixing happening with precursors only works when there are buyers who will pay the higher price for them.

Fizzlepip.5218:

SteepledHat.1345:

I really do find it very unlikely that this is happening. I don’t see Anet allowing it to go on if it were. Wouldn’t that violate their free market philosophy?

There’s a member in another thread that said he has a friend that at one time owned 15 Dusks and was doing exactly this. Even going as far as mentioning that that friend had him place multiple offers for Dusk to drive the price up.

Here’s the link: https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/crafting/Precursor-Scavenger-Hunt-1/first#post1084738

It’s happening; ANet is allowing it. And I don’t blame the people either. I’d be doing it too if I knew what the kitten any of this meant at launch. I loathe the system that says you must work hard for it, but rely on luck to actually get it.

Also, @ xWESTsidex.4980: How many tries? I’d love to, but simply don’t trust the “RNG” system. It’s a horrible way to “earn” something.

Luckily i got The Lover from the Mystic Forge but yeah I agree someone was buying them out. But this isn’t the only precursor this is happening to and whenever the scavenger hunt comes, hopefully the people controlling the market get burned.

This is exactly what’s happening. I’ve seen people with 20+ The Legend. This is all (or mostly) due to the Godskull mystic forge “bug” (I use quotes because I am sure ANet built this in for themselves and their friends, and when the actual public found out – probably from 1 friend telling another – then they removed the “bug” —but not the items!).

I think at this point, with gold sellers becoming well established, either the people who originally made 20-100 of each precursor are buying and raising prices, or that the gold sellers are buying all the precursors in order to force the price up in order to encourage people to spend money at their website. I strongly suspect the latter of the scenarios.

same happend with dawn, week ago, prices stables, so 2days ago no dawn in the tp, now u can check 500g+ when before 400g was the max.
sry for the english

Xynn.2748:

This is all (or mostly) due to the Godskull mystic forge “bug” (I use quotes because I am sure ANet built this in for themselves and their friends, and when the actual public found out – probably from 1 friend telling another – then they removed the “bug” —but not the items!).

I’m not commenting beyond this making me laugh and spilling water down my chin.

Thanks, now I look like a buffoon!

P.S. Prices are bound to crash if ANet ever implements a system of generating Precursors without reliance on RNG. But as others have said, the prices are only this high because people are apparently willing to pay (or the sellers are a little delusional), so I guess we’re all to blame or something?