Guild Wars 2

Obviously there is the foretelling and expected influx of UI dyes after the patch, in which thousands of dyes are projected to flood the TP and drive prices into the ground for the UI dyes. But after that is over and the market steadies out, will prices go up again? I mean weeks or months later. I’m not getting my hopes up about striking it rich or anything, but with UI dyes only being available from laurels at best, it seems the UI market won’t be as dead as a lot of people think it will be. Maybe some gold can be made buying when prices are super low.

Perhaps, I suspect the most valuable (relatively speaking) will be unidentified dyes for a while since they no longer drop.

The market for dye will obviously shrink, a lot of people do have the sought after dyes but usually for one or two toons (or perhaps even all) and they wont be in the market for new copies since its all going to be unlocked.
Maybe in the first weeks you’ll see an upswing in prices because people will now buy dye they considered too expensive before because they can use it to unlock it account wide. Just a supposition though.

If you look at all the recently locked dye threads you will find the full range of speculation, more opinions then you could ever want, and several dead horses.

It’ll dip down when everyone and their mother gets a free dye for every duplicate.

Those will be quickly bought up and shelved by players trying to make a profit later on.

Que 6 months later.

People are selling their stocked up dyes, but dyes are now harder to obtain and more players have joined the game.

By this time though common dyes will fall back down, but not to what they were before… ’cause they are still common.

All other dyes have continued to go up in price.

My feeling is that specific dyes will go down in price by anywhere from 20% – 50%, since players only need to unlock it once for their entire account. Certain popular dyes like Celestial or Abyss may increase in price, but not by too much. Price for dyes won’t collapse entirely due to the ability to randomly combine 4 dyes in the Mystic Forge for another random dye of the same tier or higher.

Unid’ed dyes will reach a new equilibrium between 50s – 1g, and will really only be sought after by players looking to craft the Gift of Colour. In most cases it’ll be cheaper to simply craft a random dye shade via Cooking than gambling to get the specific one you need via Unid’ed dyes.

It depends of a lot of things, and I think its hard to guesstimate what will happen. A lot of people maxed out their palette, more duplicated as much as possible and lot of people are speculating.
Though you get a new unid for every duplicate, there will still be less dyes than before, as 1000 duplicates needs 2000 dyes and you get 1000 in return. The dye market will already be somewhat drained when the supply almost stop. How big/small the new supply will be, no-one knows.
There is still a lot of people who is missing colours because the price spiked, they will probably buy when all the new unid/id are available after patch, at a lower price then now. How big this drain is, impossible to say. And of course, some new players will buy up over time. And speculators.
The biggest factor in all this, is the supply.
I believe dyes will be more expencive, and climb as time passes. How fast or much I have no idea.

If I was Anet I wouldn’t refund repeats as UI Dyes, I’d refund the repeated dyes themselves as people have clearly bought up all the undesirable ones for the sole purpose to get a pile of valuable UI Dyes on patch day.

This way if you bought the Abyss for several toons, you’ll get the Abyss back with the option to sell it, if you bought a ton of cheap dyes that you couldn’t care less just to turn in a profit by playing with the system then you’d have another thing coming.

I’ve cast the bones and can tell you that about 1 month after patch day, colored dyes of nearly all varieties will be dirt cheap and Unidentified Dye will trade for around 1 gold.

Dean Calaway.9718:

If I was Anet I wouldn’t refund repeats as UI Dyes, I’d refund the repeated dyes themselves as people have clearly bought up all the undesirable ones for the sole purpose to get a pile of valuable UI Dyes on patch day.

This way if you bought the Abyss for several toons, you’ll get the Abyss back with the option to sell it, if you bought a ton of cheap dyes that you couldn’t care less just to turn in a profit by playing with the system then you’d have another thing coming.

You do realize that hundreds of thousands, if not millions of UI Dyes will be given out on patch day? Their value will be far less than what you pay for a common dye right now.

Dean Calaway.9718:

If I was Anet I wouldn’t refund repeats as UI Dyes, I’d refund the repeated dyes themselves as people have clearly bought up all the undesirable ones for the sole purpose to get a pile of valuable UI Dyes on patch day.

This way if you bought the Abyss for several toons, you’ll get the Abyss back with the option to sell it, if you bought a ton of cheap dyes that you couldn’t care less just to turn in a profit by playing with the system then you’d have another thing coming.

I agree 100%. It’s obvious that the sole reason common dyes got bought out to such a level is to obtain UI ones at patch.

Wanze.8410:

Dean Calaway.9718:

If I was Anet I wouldn’t refund repeats as UI Dyes, I’d refund the repeated dyes themselves as people have clearly bought up all the undesirable ones for the sole purpose to get a pile of valuable UI Dyes on patch day.

This way if you bought the Abyss for several toons, you’ll get the Abyss back with the option to sell it, if you bought a ton of cheap dyes that you couldn’t care less just to turn in a profit by playing with the system then you’d have another thing coming.

You do realize that hundreds of thousands, if not millions of UI Dyes will be given out on patch day? Their value will be far less than what you pay for a common dye right now.

Key word is right now, you could have bought dozens of different dyes across all your toons (5? 6? 10?) for a few copper each, even if the dyes go as low as 15 silver its still a huge return profit.

Dean Calaway.9718:

Wanze.8410:

Dean Calaway.9718:

If I was Anet I wouldn’t refund repeats as UI Dyes, I’d refund the repeated dyes themselves as people have clearly bought up all the undesirable ones for the sole purpose to get a pile of valuable UI Dyes on patch day.

This way if you bought the Abyss for several toons, you’ll get the Abyss back with the option to sell it, if you bought a ton of cheap dyes that you couldn’t care less just to turn in a profit by playing with the system then you’d have another thing coming.

You do realize that hundreds of thousands, if not millions of UI Dyes will be given out on patch day? Their value will be far less than what you pay for a common dye right now.

Key word is right now, you could have bought dozens of different dyes across all your toons (5? 6? 10?) for a few copper each, even if the dyes go as low as 15 silver its still a huge return profit.

And this is a problem because?

Schizo.1375:

And this is a problem because?

If you can’t see a problem I’m not gonna bother trying to explain, even because by your attitude you’ve likely done it yourself and you’re expecting a profit on patch day.

Dean Calaway.9718:

Schizo.1375:

And this is a problem because?

If you can’t see a problem I’m not gonna bother trying to explain, even because by your attitude you’ve likely done it yourself and you’re expecting a profit on patch day.

As Wanze said there is no profit to be made on patch day. The market will be flooded with supply and everyone who was whining about dye prices rising to high will be able to buy for cheap again.

Dean Calaway.9718:

Schizo.1375:

And this is a problem because?

If you can’t see a problem I’m not gonna bother trying to explain, even because by your attitude you’ve likely done it yourself and you’re expecting a profit on patch day.

It isn’t really a problem though. There is a finite limit on the number of unidentified dyes you can create, and the creation of unidentified dyes is coming from colors for which there was no demand (thus the cheap price of them). What’s really happening is that old dye with no value to anyone is being removed from the market and turned into gamble attempts. It is no different from tossing them into the Mystic Forge right now.

Plus there weren’t that many dyes available for sub 10s, so while the first guy to buy some dye may wind up making 10-15s each on them, that makes two assumptions:
1. There will be enough buyers on patch day for unidentified dye for them to sell them all.
2. The price of unidentified dye will be high enough to turn a profit.

I predict that both assumptions will be wrong, and people who are trying to speculate on Unidentified Dye on patch day are going to take heavy losses.

mtpelion.4562:

Dean Calaway.9718:

Schizo.1375:

And this is a problem because?

If you can’t see a problem I’m not gonna bother trying to explain, even because by your attitude you’ve likely done it yourself and you’re expecting a profit on patch day.

It isn’t really a problem though. There is a finite limit on the number of unidentified dyes you can create, and the creation of unidentified dyes is coming from colors for which there was no demand (thus the cheap price of them). What’s really happening is that old dye with no value to anyone is being removed from the market and turned into gamble attempts. It is no different from tossing them into the Mystic Forge right now.

Plus there weren’t that many dyes available for sub 10s, so while the first guy to buy some dye may wind up making 10-15s each on them, that makes two assumptions:
1. There will be enough buyers on patch day for unidentified dye for them to sell them all.
2. The price of unidentified dye will be high enough to turn a profit.

I predict that both assumptions will be wrong, and people who are trying to speculate on Unidentified Dye on patch day are going to take heavy losses.

To go along with this the supply may be increased even more by these people who are selling their stock in order to cut their loses and free up storage space rather than save it for the long haul.

Schizo.1375:

To go along with this the supply may be increased even more by these people who are selling their stock in order to cut their loses and free up storage space rather than save it for the long haul.

Full disclosure: I intend on buying a few stacks of Unidentified Dye on patch day, because I anticipate it being incredibly inexpensive and because I predict that it will eventually rise to 1 gold each once the excess supply works it way out of the market (since the creation rate post patch is going to be very low).

I see it ending up in a similar place to Silver Doubloons.

mtpelion.4562:

Schizo.1375:

To go along with this the supply may be increased even more by these people who are selling their stock in order to cut their loses and free up storage space rather than save it for the long haul.

Full disclosure: I intend on buying a few stacks of Unidentified Dye on patch day, because I anticipate it being incredibly inexpensive and because I predict that it will eventually rise to 1 gold each once the excess supply works it way out of the market (since the creation rate post patch is going to be very low).

I see it ending up in a similar place to Silver Doubloons.

Same but I wasn’t going to say anything =p

Schizo.1375:

mtpelion.4562:

Schizo.1375:

To go along with this the supply may be increased even more by these people who are selling their stock in order to cut their loses and free up storage space rather than save it for the long haul.

Full disclosure: I intend on buying a few stacks of Unidentified Dye on patch day, because I anticipate it being incredibly inexpensive and because I predict that it will eventually rise to 1 gold each once the excess supply works it way out of the market (since the creation rate post patch is going to be very low).

I see it ending up in a similar place to Silver Doubloons.

Same but I wasn’t going to say anything =p

And that makes 3 of us, I have 7K UI dyes ordered.

3 possibilities.

1 – Dyes will crash hard, because no one needs to buy them any more, as well as the patch day flood helping this. Huge supply, no demand. (dye prices were always cheap, due to no one needing them any more, post patch, people will need them even less)

2 – Dyes will have an artificially higher price than we were previously used to due to people hording dyes cluelessly. Except it won’t matter, because no one will need to buy them ever again. The horders will lose money, huge supply, no demand.

3 – 5 months down the track, prices may increase exponentially, or not (laurels, forging, crafting), but it won’t matter, because no one will need to buy any dyes ever again. The horders will sit on them, getting undercut by other horders, occasionally selling 1 or 2 dyes.

All I see is a terrible investment with an onset of regret.

Dean Calaway.9718:

Wanze.8410:

Dean Calaway.9718:

If I was Anet I wouldn’t refund repeats as UI Dyes, I’d refund the repeated dyes themselves as people have clearly bought up all the undesirable ones for the sole purpose to get a pile of valuable UI Dyes on patch day.

This way if you bought the Abyss for several toons, you’ll get the Abyss back with the option to sell it, if you bought a ton of cheap dyes that you couldn’t care less just to turn in a profit by playing with the system then you’d have another thing coming.

You do realize that hundreds of thousands, if not millions of UI Dyes will be given out on patch day? Their value will be far less than what you pay for a common dye right now.

Key word is right now, you could have bought dozens of different dyes across all your toons (5? 6? 10?) for a few copper each, even if the dyes go as low as 15 silver its still a huge return profit.

Sorry, i couldnt find the key words right now in your OP.
And can you tell me which dyes exactly you could buy up for a few copper? To my best knowledge, the cheapest dyes where available between 1-2s.

Most common dyes had a stock of under 1000, some under 300 before the announcement. Even if we estimate an average of 500 of each common dye being bought out for the purpose of getting a unid after patch day, we are looking at 90k spread over 181 different common dyes, that have been purchased for 2-20s.

90k might look like a pretty big number but spread over the whole player base, its nothing.

Now you claim that that those 90k dyes, which have been purchased for an average of 8-10s will be turned into a profit (lets disregard those common dyes, which have been bought to be consumed on the first character of an account) to be sold after patch day when they get turned into a unidentified dye.
If you check Spidy, you will see that there are 200k buy orders for Unids right now and the volume of buy orders didnt vary more than 10% for the last year, so its fair to assume that the mayority of buy orders is situated at the low end between 1-10s (propably most of them in the copper range). If you check the TP, it shows the volume of buy orders between 41-32s at the moment, which accumulates to a whopping 3.5k.

How fast, do you think, those buy orders will be filled after patch day? 10s to a minute?
What about the buy orders between 20-30s? At this we can only speculate because we dont know how much are posted in that value range.

But if you consider that those 90k common dyes would erase half the buy orders of unids right now and the amount of duplicate dyes applied to several alts on each account since launch will surely dwarf that 90k amount, where do you think, the price of unids will end up?

My guess would be that it will be at 10s tops. Its hard to speculate, how much unids will be given out but it could easily be in the millions. Personally, i only decked out my main with dyes, as my alts mostly serve as mule or crafter and i dont actively play with them or dress them up but even i have 56 duplicate dyes unlocked and i would guess some people with 5 toons that they play regularly, will get plenty more.

Even a conservative estimate of 20 unids per account would mean 6 million dyes entering the market, if at least 10% of all accounts are still active.

Personally I am not involved in the dye market but if I would be holding on to any kind of dye that can be obtained from unids, i would get rid of it as long as there are still decent buy orders posted.

mtpelion.4562:

I see it ending up in a similar place to Silver Doubloons.

Won’t happen.

Silver doubloons are based entirely on luck, within a small window of attainment. Character level 22 (or whatever level it is) jumping puzzle rewards, and 5% chance when forging pebbles + lump. Too much effort and luck with no normal way to get the item, results in a high price.

Unidentified dyes? Anyone that wants Bifrost, now or later, is already saving dyes, or will save patch day dyes. Unidentified dyes can also be obtained by laurels (10 dyes for 5 laurels).

Since laurels are attainable by every single player, every single day, every single month, this easily accessed method will keep the price down, as well as be the logical choice for gift of colour if the price of dyes are artificially raised by horders (38-41 laurels per month, depending on the month, not including achievement rewards).

Dean Calaway.9718:

Schizo.1375:

And this is a problem because?

If you can’t see a problem I’m not gonna bother trying to explain, even because by your attitude you’ve likely done it yourself and you’re expecting a profit on patch day.

As i mentioned in my prior post, i dont see a problem in it as well and would like you to elaborate.

Realist.5812:

mtpelion.4562:

I see it ending up in a similar place to Silver Doubloons.

Won’t happen.

Silver doubloons are based entirely on luck, within a small window of attainment. Character level 22 (or whatever level it is) jumping puzzle rewards, and 5% chance when forging pebbles + lump. Too much effort and luck with no normal way to get the item, results in a high price.

Unidentified dyes? Anyone that wants Bifrost, now or later, is already saving dyes, or will save patch day dyes. Unidentified dyes can also be obtained by laurels (10 dyes for 5 laurels).

Since laurels are attainable by every single player, every single day, every single month, this easily accessed method will keep the price down, as well as be the logical choice for gift of colour if the price of dyes are artificially raised by horders (38-41 laurels per month, depending on the month, not including achievement rewards).

Laurels are time gated though, so there will be people willing to pay for instant access to the unidentified dyes. How many people and how willing they are to pay remains to be seen.

Only time will tell, but I didn’t discount laurels in my prediction.

Realist.5812:

mtpelion.4562:

I see it ending up in a similar place to Silver Doubloons.

Won’t happen.

Silver doubloons are based entirely on luck, within a small window of attainment. Character level 22 (or whatever level it is) jumping puzzle rewards, and 5% chance when forging pebbles + lump. Too much effort and luck with no normal way to get the item, results in a high price.

You forget lootbags. last night i got buy orders for lootbags worth 15g filled and got 16 silver doubloons from them. With selling all the other stuff, i made more 25g profit….

Wanze.8410:

Realist.5812:

mtpelion.4562:

I see it ending up in a similar place to Silver Doubloons.

Won’t happen.

Silver doubloons are based entirely on luck, within a small window of attainment. Character level 22 (or whatever level it is) jumping puzzle rewards, and 5% chance when forging pebbles + lump. Too much effort and luck with no normal way to get the item, results in a high price.

You forget lootbags. last night i got buy orders for lootbags worth 15g filled and got 16 silver doubloons from them. With selling all the other stuff, i made more 25g profit….

I swear, you have the best container luck Wanze!

Wanze.8410:

You forget lootbags. last night i got buy orders for lootbags worth 15g filled and got 16 silver doubloons from them. With selling all the other stuff, i made more 25g profit….

Ah right, I forgot about loot bags a long time ago :p Accursed things never treated me right.

Congrats though.

mtpelion.4562:

Wanze.8410:

Realist.5812:

mtpelion.4562:

I see it ending up in a similar place to Silver Doubloons.

Won’t happen.

Silver doubloons are based entirely on luck, within a small window of attainment. Character level 22 (or whatever level it is) jumping puzzle rewards, and 5% chance when forging pebbles + lump. Too much effort and luck with no normal way to get the item, results in a high price.

You forget lootbags. last night i got buy orders for lootbags worth 15g filled and got 16 silver doubloons from them. With selling all the other stuff, i made more 25g profit….

I swear, you have the best container luck Wanze!

That was indeed a lucky streak, i expected 8-10 doubloons from that batch and 5-8g profit. But in general its not luck but science, more or less, because i opened and documented more than 25k of those lootbags now, so i usually am pretty spot on with my projected ROI, as long as my batch is big enough.

But yeah, 166% profit (after fees and taxes) on opening large batches of lootbags is pretty seldom, even for me.

it depends on whether new players keep joining the game. Is an expansion coming soon? None is announced.

If new players keep coming/old players return, then the market for unidentified dyes will rise to some point until anet starts holding gemstore dye sales. The market for common dyes will also hold.

If the game stays occupied with die hards, most players will have unlocked most dyes and the prices will rise to a speculator driven high, but stocks wolnt really sell. A lot of rich players will be left holding lots of dyes, paper millionaires without any real way to access their gold.

How much was the dye market already inflated by the bifrost? Dyes were 2 silver before people started trying to craft the bifrost, and a change to 100 dyes needed is just 7 weeks worth of laurels, including monthlies. (Expensive, but in line with legendary requirements).

Wanze.8410:

As i mentioned in my prior post, i dont see a problem in it as well and would like you to elaborate.

The sole reason people bought the cheap dyes was just so they’d get UI dyes that are more valuable, regardless of what you might try to make it look like.

This can at moderators discretion be considered an exploit.

On the early days of GW2 people got banned for buying cheap karma items and sell them for big coin profit.
We’re talking about 100’s of gold in the first few weeks, they used the same logic as you “hey I’m just buying this with karma and selling it for coin, what’s wrong with it? There’s nothing wrong with it if Anet didn’t want me to do this they wouldn’t put it in the game”.

It’s always super fun when you’re making a big profit and people are smart enough to find and go for things like this, when they are called on it the naive and innocent fest starts.

Dean Calaway.9718:

Wanze.8410:

As i mentioned in my prior post, i dont see a problem in it as well and would like you to elaborate.

The sole reason people bought the cheap dyes was just so they’d get UI dyes that are more valuable, regardless of what you might try to make it look like.

This can at moderators discretion be considered an exploit.

On the early days of GW2 people got banned for buying cheap karma items and sell them for big coin profit.
We’re talking about 100’s of gold in the first few weeks, they used the same logic as you “hey I’m just buying this with karma and selling it for coin, what’s wrong with it? There’s nothing wrong with it if Anet didn’t want me to do this they wouldn’t put it in the game”.

It’s always super fun when you’re making a big profit and people are smart enough to find and go for things like this, when they are called on it the naive and innocent fest starts.

Well, if you read my long post, you should have realized that buying up common dyes in order to cash in on unids after patch will not work out that great.

But even if people make gold from speculating with this conversion, they may gain a personal profit but it would be nowhere near the the amount of gold people made with the karma exploit.

If someone was lucky enough to buy each common dye at 2s after the announcement in order to create a new alt to apply them to, he would have spent 3.6g initial investment and would end up with 181 unid dyes. If we say that the price for unid dyes stays stable at 40s until patch day (it will be alot less, beleive me) and he manages to log in first to sell those unid dyes for 40s, he will make 72g. Deduct initial investment cost, fees and taxes and he will end up with 57.6g profit. And that is the best case scenario, big deal?

Wanze.8410:

(…)
If someone was lucky enough to buy each common dye at 2s after the announcement in order to create a new alt to apply them to, he would have spent 3.6g initial investment and would end up with 181 unid dyes. If we say that the price for unid dyes stays stable at 40s until patch day (it will be alot less, beleive me) and he manages to log in first to sell those unid dyes for 40s, he will make 72g. Deduct initial investment cost, fees and taxes and he will end up with 57.6g profit. And that is the best case scenario, big deal?

You’re doing it wrong, which is strange since I thought you were a very successful market shark.

Before anything you don’t need to make an alt, everyone has at least 5 slots.
Now lets see just 1 dye, 2 silver each 10 silver investment to unlock it across all your 5 characters.
Come patch day you’ll get 4 UI for that color alone, even if UI dyes go down to 15 silver thats still 60 silver before tax, just for 1 color, a 10 silver investment.

But regardless of math, you’re missing the point, the UI dyes give away was made as a compensation for repeated ones you had, NOT so you could pile up on cheap repeats across your account now just so you could get the UI ones on patch day.

Meanwhile if Anet decides they will be giving the repeated colors themselves and not UI dyes how do you imagine the community reaction will be?
And what moral do they have to complain about the change?

Honestly, I’ve seen people complaining on these forums when Anet fixed some exploits on PS, people openly complained because they couldn’t make gold from farming these anymore.

Indeed everyone can turn in laurels for un-ided dyes. However many will want to use their laurels for other things. Right now you can get them as drops and turn in laurels for them. It’ll cut off half of that.

Common dyes will still be common and abundant since you only ever need 1 and those are extremely easy to obtain. Highly desired rare dyes will become more rare and the prices on those will go up over time despite only needing 1 due to the lowered supply.

That’s a slightly more detailed version of how I see it playing out anyways.

Dean Calaway.9718:

Wanze.8410:

(…)
If someone was lucky enough to buy each common dye at 2s after the announcement in order to create a new alt to apply them to, he would have spent 3.6g initial investment and would end up with 181 unid dyes. If we say that the price for unid dyes stays stable at 40s until patch day (it will be alot less, beleive me) and he manages to log in first to sell those unid dyes for 40s, he will make 72g. Deduct initial investment cost, fees and taxes and he will end up with 57.6g profit. And that is the best case scenario, big deal?

You’re doing it wrong, which is strange since I thought you were a very successful market shark.

Before anything you don’t need to make an alt, everyone has at least 5 slots.
Now lets see just 1 dye, 2 silver each 10 silver investment to unlock it across all your 5 characters.
Come patch day you’ll get 4 UI for that color alone, even if UI dyes go down to 15 silver thats still 60 silver before tax, just for 1 color, a 10 silver investment.

But regardless of math, you’re missing the point, the UI dyes give away was made as a compensation for repeated ones you had, NOT so you could pile up on cheap repeats across your account now just so you could get the UI ones on patch day.

Meanwhile if Anet decides they will be giving the repeated colors themselves and not UI dyes how do you imagine the community reaction will be?
And what moral do they have to complain about the change?

Honestly, I’ve seen people complaining on these forums when Anet fixed some exploits on PS, people openly complained because they couldn’t make gold from farming these anymore.

My example already was a very good scenario, given the time it takes to directly buy 1 (or 4) of each 181 common dyes. Overall, just a very few made some profit yesterday (and will after patch day), as John Smith confirmed in this post:
https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/bltc/dyes-a-lesson-in-manipulation/page/2#post3820927

Personally i also bought up some dyes in bulk, I also sold some for a good profit, but alot of them are still listed at prices i dont expect anyone to pay for at least half a year. I trade so much that i dont keep track of most of it (even though, at the end of the day, i make a profit), and my guesstimate would be that i made a bigger loss than the average of 5 gold that John Smith mentioned in his post.

Concerning your questions:

Personally, i would think it would have been a better and fairer solution to reimburse the same dyes that you have unlocked on multiple alts. It doesnt concern me much because i have not much (expensive) dyes unlocked on several alts but i can see altoholic fashionistas, that spent alot of gold/gems to get rare/gem store dyes for their alts being punished and i dont think thats fair.

I have seen a suggestion that unids should be seperated by rarity, which is a good solution as well. That would mean that for every duplicate rare dye that you have unlocked on your account, you will get a rare unid dye back, that will give you a random rare dye, same for masterwork and fine dyes.
However, this will royally screw up the recipe for gift of colors (and the recipe for multicolored ooze tonic, which also requires a regular unid) because all the refunded unid dyes will be rarity bound (with a new item ID) and so would be able to be used for crafting. However, they could choose a middle ground and refund regular unids for each duplicate masterwork dye to ensure, that there is some initial supply after patch.

But i think Anet mentioned that Unid Dyes will still drop (even though at a greatly reduced rate) and they will adjust the recipe for Gift of Coor from 250 to 100, so that might not be an issue after all.

As i said, i would be in favour of getting the same dye refunded that you have duplicates unlocked of because it would be a more spread out way to crash the dye market (and crash it will).

The way they implemented now, i expect the market to react as followed on patch day:

Several million unids will enter the market. I f prices for identified dyes dyes stay the same as now (which is unlikely) people will identify their unids and sell to the highest bidder as fast as they can, the same goes for unids, as explained in a prior post. People who have buy orders listed for dyes, will feel the velocity of the market hitting hard.
Due to RNG, common dyes will tank first, followed by masterwork and rares. This will open up the forge market to make a profit of forging tanked common dyes into uncommon dyes as those havent tanked as fast yet and people can still take advantage of relatively high buy orders on masterwork and rare dyes (at that point, i expect common dyes to be available in copper range).

If you want some perspective, i will throw in some more numbers, which are all estimates by me. You can dispute them because i have no proof but i will try to use conservative numbers, insert your own estimate and do the math:

Numbers of Unids being refunded on patch day:
Over 3 million copies of GW2 sold, 10% active accounts. An average of 20 duplicate dyes unlocked per account (will be much more, i think) will result in 6 million unids reintroduced to the economy.

Supply of identified dyes of each rarity on the TP (as dyes dont go into a collectible tab and have to be stored in a bank slot, i expect the mayority of the online supply of dyes to be posted on the tp and not lingering in somebodies bank, except valuable dyes.
My estimates of volume posted refer to the time before the announcement of the chance, to give a better comparison. I also disregard the supply of crafted unid dyes because its miniscule compared to the numbers:

Common dyes: 181 in game, an average of 500 each resulting in ~90k overall.
A list of all common dyes, sorted by supply descended can be seen here:
http://www.gw2spidy.com/search/dye?rarity_filter=2&min_level=&max_level=&sort_sale_availability=desc

Remember, i try to take the supply numbers from before the announcement as a base, the supply for each common dye listed in the link is more or less live and far less than my estimate average of 500. However, i made spot checks of 20 each, feel free to to click through 181 web browser loading screens to correct my estimate of 500 each listed on Monday, 24th.

Then there are 119 uncommon dyes, which seemed to have an average supply of 150 on monday, here is the link of the actual supply, again descending:
http://www.gw2spidy.com/search/dye?rarity_filter=3&min_level=&max_level=&sort_sale_availability=desc

This accumulates to ~18k dyes.

And we have 82 rare dyes in game, with an average supply of 125 on monday, making up ~10k dyes.

I wont count the gem store dyes, as they arent obtainable via the mf but i will count the unidentified crafted dyes, which will are 4500 right now, i will double that figure because personally, i have some stocked up not listed yet and i expect some others to have the same so 9k crafted dyes.
http://www.gw2spidy.com/search/unidentified?sort_sale_availability=desc&rarity_filter=-1

Overall, i estimate a stock of identified (or craft unidentified) dyes of 127k on the tp on monday.

If you consider my estimated influx of 6 million dyes with patch day, you will know where dye prices will be heading, considering that new demand for dyes will mostly come from new players that have to reach lvl 80 yet and care about looks.

@Wanze, I’m not disputing your numbers, what I’m saying is a lot of people bought cheap ones to turn them into something more valuable.

It doesn’t matter if the price of UI dyes goes down to 1 silver on patch day because it will go up again in time, and the kind of people that cleaned up every dye under 20 silver aren’t the kind of people that will post them for a loss, they’ll hold on to them for a year if it takes for max profit, so my point stands they deliberately used a not-so-well-thoughted solution for their monetary benefit.

Dean Calaway.9718:

@Wanze, I’m not disputing your numbers, what I’m saying is a lot of people bought cheap ones to turn them into something more valuable.

It doesn’t matter if the price of UI dyes goes down to 1 silver on patch day because it will go up again in time, and the kind of people that cleaned up every dye under 20 silver aren’t the kind of people that will post them for a loss, they’ll hold on to them for a year if it takes for max profit, so my point stands they deliberately used a not-so-well-thoughted solution for their monetary benefit.

If you dont dispute my numbers, you should have seen that there is no gold to be made in the short term, so your initial arguement is moot. I have bought up many things in order to sell them for a win and i have been selling for a loss.

Welp, if you ever plan on making a legendary like Bifrost, making the Gift of Colour right after the unidentified dyes whale the market seems to be cheapest. — Capt. Obvious

Wanze.8410:

Dean Calaway.9718:

@Wanze, I’m not disputing your numbers, what I’m saying is a lot of people bought cheap ones to turn them into something more valuable.

It doesn’t matter if the price of UI dyes goes down to 1 silver on patch day because it will go up again in time, and the kind of people that cleaned up every dye under 20 silver aren’t the kind of people that will post them for a loss, they’ll hold on to them for a year if it takes for max profit, so my point stands they deliberately used a not-so-well-thoughted solution for their monetary benefit.

If you dont dispute my numbers, you should have seen that there is no gold to be made in the short term, so your initial arguement is moot. I have bought up many things in order to sell them for a win and i have been selling for a loss.

Maybe get into markets that only show profit~
Time to do math and tap into the eternal alchemy

I’ll just wait and get ready to laugh at every “unlocker” when it turns out A-Net replaced the duplicate dyes with the account bound versions…

Refunding unidentified dyes is going to be a whole lot less disruptive than refunding dyes of the same rarity or the exact duplicate colors. Many of the high value dyes are the products of forging lower rarity and value dyes, and refunding the exact duplicate dyes would flood the top of the value chain, crashing everything below it.

Refunding duplicates as unidentified dyes injects raw materials, which will flood the market more equitably (and will have a lot of people buying them up to forge up the higher value dyes, as the flood will be primarily at the bottom).

It’s a much cleaner and less disruptive way of giving out a refund. Sure, there’s money to be made off of it, but there’s money to be made off of every change.

Rengaru.4730:

I’ll just wait and get ready to laugh at every “unlocker” when it turns out A-Net replaced the duplicate dyes with the account bound versions…

….and lo, there was much wailing and gnashing of teeth across all the Realms of Tyria….

Brother Grimm.5176:

Rengaru.4730:

I’ll just wait and get ready to laugh at every “unlocker” when it turns out A-Net replaced the duplicate dyes with the account bound versions…

….and lo, there was much wailing and gnashing of teeth across all the Realms of Tyria….

I think I might have 1-2 duplicate dyes in total. I only ever opened them on my first character, up until I realized they were character-bound at which point every single one of them went up on the TP. I think I may have somewhere in the range of 20 dyes in total (not counting starter dyes).

I welcome the dye changes as it will actually incentivize me to work towards collecting them now.