Guild Wars 2

Ok so I’ve started lobbing rares and exotics into the forge in search of a precursor. Iv noticed that every return be it weapon or armor has no sigil/rune inside whereas precursors in fact do. So I’m just wondering if I am perhaps doing something wrong?

As long as a dev didn’t give false info about precursors the only thing that matters is the level and the quality(rare/exotic etc.)

if i was you i wouldnt waste your time trying to get legandary precursor using Mystic Forge. You vs RNG. RNG always wins.

Anatolian Turk.4057:

if i was you i wouldnt waste your time trying to get legandary precursor using Mystic Forge. You vs RNG. RNG always wins.

i’m inclined to disagree.

While you have no real control, doing it more and more will ONLY increase your chances. The trick is balancing yourself out financially so you don’t lose everything which means not allowing yourself to go below a certain amount if and when you buy the exos to toss in.

On a side note, me and guildee were farming for onyx lodestones the other night.

Between us we found 5 (with me making enough money off loot to buy a 6th) as well as 9 rares.

It was a very lucrative night and proved that RNG does not always win.

Patience does.

Also, they have to come from somewhere…
So RNG loses in the case that a precursor does exist…

Please stay on topic, my Q had nothing to do with RNG merely the process I am using to attempt a prec and whether or not it is incorrect based on logic. Also I thank you for concern, but like Oreoz ‘sort of’ mentioned I am not just flinging random exotics into the forge willy nilly. Let me give you an example (but not my only source):
Many people are currently running COF and AC for tokens. Which they then use to buy exotics, and toss in the forge. While these weaps have runes, the forge result never does. HOWEVER precursors do in fact have a rune inside (because noone would put a superior rune of air in a prec). SO… what’s the deal?
Ideally I’d like to hear from someone that has received a precursor.

I think that just because it starts with a rune/sigil, it doesn’t guarantee one in the outcome. It should, but that’s just the gambling part: you can put lots of expensive stuff in to get a normal unruned/sigiled item

A guild member of mine just recently made the Precursor sword, it took 11 tries, he used nothing but the AC swords from tokens, the exotic version.

cool ^^ strange that the only weapon you then receive back with something in it is a prec…. clearly it isn’t just another exotic

Oreoz.2573:

Anatolian Turk.4057:

if i was you i wouldnt waste your time trying to get legandary precursor using Mystic Forge. You vs RNG. RNG always wins.

i’m inclined to disagree.

While you have no real control, doing it more and more will ONLY increase your chances. The trick is balancing yourself out financially so you don’t lose everything which means not allowing yourself to go below a certain amount if and when you buy the exos to toss in.

On a side note, me and guildee were farming for onyx lodestones the other night.

Between us we found 5 (with me making enough money off loot to buy a 6th) as well as 9 rares.

It was a very lucrative night and proved that RNG does not always win.

Patience does.

It will increase your chances in the flawed logic that you are simply playing more. The RNG remains unchanged; you’re just spending more time/wasting more gold doing it.

AKA: don’t bother

Save your gold and buy them from the TP(if you want it now) or wait until the scavenger hunt in probably 6 months when you can get things free/incredibly cheap.

somsom.5201:

Oreoz.2573:

Anatolian Turk.4057:

if i was you i wouldnt waste your time trying to get legandary precursor using Mystic Forge. You vs RNG. RNG always wins.

i’m inclined to disagree.

While you have no real control, doing it more and more will ONLY increase your chances. The trick is balancing yourself out financially so you don’t lose everything which means not allowing yourself to go below a certain amount if and when you buy the exos to toss in.

On a side note, me and guildee were farming for onyx lodestones the other night.

Between us we found 5 (with me making enough money off loot to buy a 6th) as well as 9 rares.

It was a very lucrative night and proved that RNG does not always win.

Patience does.

It will increase your chances in the flawed logic that you are simply playing more. The RNG remains unchanged; you’re just spending more time/wasting more gold doing it.

AKA: don’t bother

Save your gold and buy them from the TP(if you want it now) or wait until the scavenger hunt in probably 6 months when you can get things free/incredibly cheap.

It’s not flawed logic. Your odds literally go up the more you do it. The RNG doesn’t change of course, but you’re giving it more chances to work in your favor. The more you try, the better your chances of success. Eventually you’ll get what you want. Does that mean throw all your gold at it like a moron?

No.

The only flawed logic among players is logic that stems from their own impatience.

“Obviously if I throw over 100g worth of exos in there I’ll get what I want simply because of how much I spent right? Right?”

No. You got to play it smart. Try 2 or 3 times every day. If it doesn’t work out, play the game like you would normally and you’ll make that money back and then some.

Why?

Because you only tried a couple of times, your loss isn’t that big of a deal. You never want to exert yourself financially to the point where you can’t make it back after a few hours of natural play and I’m not even talking about grinding dungeons or anything. Just regular play.

You treat the MF like the RNG it is and play it smart, then you’ll get a precursor even faster than six months.

Because “save your money” and “buy the precursor” honestly do not belong in the same sentence. lol

Oreoz.2573:

While you have no real control, doing it more and more will ONLY increase your chances. The trick is balancing yourself out financially so you don’t lose everything which means not allowing yourself to go below a certain amount if and when you buy the exos to toss in.

Tossing more stuff does nothing to improve your chances. It’s an independent event.

SteepledHat.1345:

Oreoz.2573:

While you have no real control, doing it more and more will ONLY increase your chances. The trick is balancing yourself out financially so you don’t lose everything which means not allowing yourself to go below a certain amount if and when you buy the exos to toss in.

Tossing more stuff does nothing to improve your chances. It’s an independent event.

Of course it does. It’s random yes, but if you keep trying than your chances of that “random” being the one you want increases. If you want evidence of that fact then just look at the alternative which is not trying and receiving….nothing.

I’m not saying it’ll change anything from an under the hood technical standpoint ( i think that’s where the confusion is), i’m just saying that EVENTUALLY, you’ll get what you want.

People are just dumb and blow all their money at once thinking it’ll work for them because they spent so much. The lucky ones in that respect will rejoice while the unlucky ones will call it a waste of time.

And then there’s people like me, who will take it day by day, spending the money when they can afford to and will eventually get what he wants because he gave RNG enough chances to choose the favorable random outcome. Not because he threw 100g at it at once.

Oreoz.2573:

Anatolian Turk.4057:

if i was you i wouldnt waste your time trying to get legandary precursor using Mystic Forge. You vs RNG. RNG always wins.

i’m inclined to disagree.

While you have no real control, doing it more and more will ONLY increase your chances. The trick is balancing yourself out financially so you don’t lose everything which means not allowing yourself to go below a certain amount if and when you buy the exos to toss in.

On a side note, me and guildee were farming for onyx lodestones the other night.

Between us we found 5 (with me making enough money off loot to buy a 6th) as well as 9 rares.

It was a very lucrative night and proved that RNG does not always win.

Patience does.

Getting a prec after 1000th try is not winning at all. Just calculate the cost and time req for 4000 exos/rares. I feel like I’m robbed instead of feeling lucky.

I’m sorry but there is some really hard fail in here when it comes to understanding probability theory.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independence_%28probability_theory%29

SteepledHat.1345:

I’m sorry but there is some really hard fail in here when it comes to understanding probability theory.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independence_%28probability_theory%29

You should have posted the “Rolling a die” example ^^
here:

“The event of getting a 6 the first time a die is rolled and the event of getting a 6 the second time are independent. By contrast, the event of getting a 6 the first time a die is rolled and the event that the sum of the numbers seen on the first and second trials is 8 are not independent.”

I don’t know if people will understand this but there it is lol

Oreoz.2573:

Of course it does. It’s random yes, but if you keep trying than your chances of that “random” being the one you want increases. If you want evidence of that fact then just look at the alternative which is not trying and receiving….nothing.

You have to be careful of how you say stuff, with probability/statistics. Your chance of getting a precursor on your 1000th try is no different than your chance of getting it on the 2nd try.

However, statistically speaking, you have a better chance of already obtaining the precursor by the 1000th try than on the 2nd try. Which I believe is what you’re trying to say. People are just reading it the first way.

Anatolian Turk.4057:

if i was you i wouldnt waste your time trying to get legandary precursor using Mystic Forge. You vs RNG. RNG always wins.

One of my guildies got Dusk on his second try last night, and one of my friends got Dusk as a drop in WvW a while back. RNG does occasionally pay out.

EnemyCrusher.7324:

Anatolian Turk.4057:

if i was you i wouldnt waste your time trying to get legandary precursor using Mystic Forge. You vs RNG. RNG always wins.

One of my guildies got Dusk on his second try last night, and one of my friends got Dusk as a drop in WvW a while back. RNG does occasionally pay out.

Ironically it’s usually to those not really trying. I bought 50 unid dyes to try to get a good rare. I got 1 rare which was garbage.

My gf gets it as a drop and it’s celestial. She sells it and buys like 10 dyes, gets a black rare and sells that too lol.

Darn you RNG!

Drauger.2158:

Oreoz.2573:

Anatolian Turk.4057:

if i was you i wouldnt waste your time trying to get legandary precursor using Mystic Forge. You vs RNG. RNG always wins.

i’m inclined to disagree.

While you have no real control, doing it more and more will ONLY increase your chances. The trick is balancing yourself out financially so you don’t lose everything which means not allowing yourself to go below a certain amount if and when you buy the exos to toss in.

On a side note, me and guildee were farming for onyx lodestones the other night.

Between us we found 5 (with me making enough money off loot to buy a 6th) as well as 9 rares.

It was a very lucrative night and proved that RNG does not always win.

Patience does.

Getting a prec after 1000th try is not winning at all. Just calculate the cost and time req for 4000 exos/rares. I feel like I’m robbed instead of feeling lucky.

Why do you think I’m telling people not to spend more than they can make back in a days worth of basic gameplay?

Getting it on the 1000th sucks, but its still winning if you patient and smart with your gold.

Ethics.4519:

Oreoz.2573:

Of course it does. It’s random yes, but if you keep trying than your chances of that “random” being the one you want increases. If you want evidence of that fact then just look at the alternative which is not trying and receiving….nothing.

You have to be careful of how you say stuff, with probability/statistics. Your chance of getting a precursor on your 1000th try is no different than your chance of getting it on the 2nd try.

However, statistically speaking, you have a better chance of already obtaining the precursor by the 1000th try than on the 2nd try. Which I believe is what you’re trying to say. People are just reading it the first way.

Yeah, that’s exactly eat I’m trying to say

The only thing holding people back is their own impatience and feeling of being robbed but if you do it day by day and not be an idiot with your gold, then by the time you have all other mats you’ll probably have the precursor.

The only real robbery here is the TP prices. I bet we’d see a lot more precursors on their if everyone would just get probability and chance out of their head and use the Mystic forge in a smart way.

Just got dusk today 3rd time using the MF.

^see, it pays out just as much as it doesn’t

I think that knowledge combined with the fact that each try is independent of the other should make more people want to try the MF. You just have to be smart with your money.

For example, I’m using it to slowly make money. In my case, ive been getting shaman etched shields. Depending on the stats, they can sell for 17g. I got one last night so now the threshold that I won’t cross is 110g instead of 100. If I get another, it’ll be 120 and so on.