Mystic Forge's chance not nerfed?
Can’t you just buy the chosen off tp? o.O
Don’t disturb me, I have a cat in me at the moment.
I had the same issue. I made a batch of 24 rare gs and about 1/2 came out to be exotics. I went ahead and made another 45 and none of those came out to be exotics. It’s either crap luck or something’s wrong with the forge…
I don’t know about anyone else, but afaik, in guild or real life, people are quitting this game.
yeah threw in another 23 shields, got kittening 0 exotics,
50g spent in lvl 80 rare rifles – Got 2 exotics. You cant imagine how kitten i was.
(edited by Loe.6351)
The rare→exotic chance dropped to 10% (from 20-25%~) for me about a week ago. Some experienced the same drop, but it looks like others are fine, so without precise details from ANet, we’re stuck with “it’s just bad luck”.
Behind the scene: Anet f’d up the %
On the forum: Guys, no change has been made, its just bad luck!
There might not have been any change at all — for all we know, it’s within the specifications of the RNG algorithm. Still, it’d be nice if ANet did a test of 10k forges (or more for pre-cursors) and at least revealed the “odds” to the community. I don’t see any harm in that, well, aside from people knowing if they should risk their currency or not.
The rare->exotic chance dropped to 10% (from 20-25%~) for me about a week ago. Some experienced the same drop, but it looks like others are fine, so without precise details from ANet, we’re stuck with “it’s just bad luck”.
Yup what he said(used to be 20% not 25%), if you look on youtube you can see people doing massive numbers 1000’s of forges, check the dates and see it drop from 20% AVG to 10% AVG. The game dev flat out lied when he said nothing changed or someone changed something without telling him, but surely he would simulate 10k and test himself.
This game will fall once dota 2 gets out of beta unless they do something about the economy. Why does the best loot and gold per hour happen where the bots are farming? why does killing dragons and dungeons give next to nothing. Why are the bots allowed to farm for 2 weeks before they get banned. It’s like a deal has been made or something….. This economy best serves bots, exploiters and gold buyers.
“We gonna monitor precursor’s price!”
→go nerf mf %
Well, Lindsay said it hadn’t changed with the Oct. 7 patch, which did answer my question and probably was true. It’d be a change server-side anyways, and could’ve been thrown in with any moment of downtime (if even necessary).
It’s nice to know I haven’t stopped gambling without cause — I keep thinking “what if it was just for those few days”… ;P But when you go from getting 2-3 in a row quite often, to barely getting 1:10, it’s not worth it anymore.
How do you make 200 shields for 8g? Those numbers are actually way off, youtube it next time.
“We gonna monitor precursor’s price!”
->go nerf mf %
Funny. ;P
Soaring pre-cursor prices do generate a decent revenue for ANet. Thousands of dollars are pouring into the gem-market just so people can afford them — probably $200-400/per — but that’s the result of blending vanity with impatience! ;P
How do you make 200 shields for 8g? Those numbers are actually way off, youtube it next time.
of course im estimating it. 16 fine mats~45silv, 250 !)#(!, seriously, im here to enjoy my game not to do math. All I know is, when i started merging few weeks ago, I only had 12 gold, then till earlier today I had 18. Few hours ago, down to 12 again, without any exotics gained,
all im trying to say is, THIS HAS NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE.
Did you use level 76+ rare, the patch made it 76+ rares only to get exotics.
If you used level 80 shields 200 at the cheapest would cost you 25g.
yes i crafted my own 80 carrion / traveler shields,
i merged at least 7 times today, each time i merged 18~23 shields, because that’s how many inventory spaces I have. I guess i overestimated by a bit, but doesnt change the fact that % has definitely been changed, Because every18~23 I merged days ago, i get 1~2 exotics almost certainly.
I was also using lvl 80 rares. I’ve tried a few times after my last post and i’m still getting rares back. This has never happened to me. I use to get exotics almost 1/2 the time. I don’t think I will be gambling with rares anymore. Something has changed.
Yup dev denies a nerf from mondays patch but up until then i was making insane money from it, getting an exotic every 1/3 now im lucky if its 1/12, and i was using lvl 74 rares
Did you use level 76+ rare, the patch made it 76+ rares only to get exotics.
If you used level 80 shields 200 at the cheapest would cost you 25g.
And that definalty is not true
I think I am just gonna leave this game after I spend all my gold on precursor. Instead of doing something to this absurd MF system, you are ignoring it.
ArenaNet’s main flaw was probably expecting people to understand how probability works. It’s perfectly reasonable to see you won’t always get the same drop rate from the Mystic Forge – “random”, remember? Having a 50% chance for something doesn’t mean it will happen on the second try.
“I think that players are starting to mature past the point of wanting to be on that
treadmill, of being in that obvious pattern of every time I catch up you are going to
put another carrot in front of me” – Mike O’Brien right before Ascended weapons
treadmill, of being in that obvious pattern of every time I catch up you are going to
put another carrot in front of me” – Mike O’Brien right before Ascended weapons
I think I am just gonna leave this game after I spend all my gold on precursor. Instead of doing something to this absurd MF system, you are ignoring it.
ArenaNet’s main flaw was probably expecting people to understand how probability works. It’s perfectly reasonable to see you won’t always get the same drop rate from the Mystic Forge – “random”, remember? Having a 50% chance for something doesn’t mean it will happen on the second try.
I bet you dont dare to challenge authorities, for example try to prove your professor wrong.
When you have been doing the same thing for the past few weeks, and been getting steadily same results. You know when something is wrong. Hard to understand?
go flip a coin right now and see how many tails you get from 20 toss, i bet only 1 right?
Yea, with low droprates like 15-20%, the variance in your results is going to be huge. The smaller the chance of something happening, the larger the variance is going to be. It’s perfectly reasonable that you do 10 lots of 20 combines and get 30% exotics, then do 10 more lots of 20 combines and average 15%. It would even be reasonable to do a couple of lots of combines and get no exotics. It doesn’t mean anything changed, it’s just how probability works.
Any system with luck involved will have results that are way away from the actual percentage.
When you have been doing the same thing for the past few weeks, and been getting steadily same results. You know when something is wrong. Hard to understand?
Apparently harder than to understand probability. You are not going to get the same results all the time – that is pretty much obvious. You have mentioned how today your drop rate appears to be differente, which is pretty much to be expected.
go flip a coin right now and see how many tails you get from 20 toss, i bet only 1 right?
The fact you appear to believe that could not occur is proof that you don’t understand probability…
“I think that players are starting to mature past the point of wanting to be on that
treadmill, of being in that obvious pattern of every time I catch up you are going to
put another carrot in front of me” – Mike O’Brien right before Ascended weapons
treadmill, of being in that obvious pattern of every time I catch up you are going to
put another carrot in front of me” – Mike O’Brien right before Ascended weapons
(edited by Erasculio.2914)
When you have been doing the same thing for the past few weeks, and been getting steadily same results. You know when something is wrong. Hard to understand?
Apparently harder than to understand probability. You are not going to get the same results all the time – that is pretty much obvious. You have mentioned how today your drop rate appears to be differente, which is pretty much to be expected.
go flip a coin right now and see how many tails you get from 20 toss, i bet only 1 right?
The fact you appear to believe that could not occur is proof that you don’t understand probability…
I think that you may be the one slightly in the dark about probability. He was not stating that it’s impossible to get only 1 tail, but that it is simply extremely improbable. The probability of obtaining only 1 tail in 20 flips is as follows: n!/(2^(n)*x!(n-x)! where n is the number of flips, and x is the number of heads obtained, and this calculates out to .0019%. This is obviously absurdly small, and so proves his point.
He was not stating that it’s impossible to get only 1 tail, but that it is simply extremely improbable.
And yet, if someone does it enough times, it will eventually happen. Just as the OP is complaining that, after doing the same thing over and over, he found himself eventually with different results. Which is the proof of how he is wrong – mentioning “steadily same results” and then complaining about different results in a single day is a joke.
“I think that players are starting to mature past the point of wanting to be on that
treadmill, of being in that obvious pattern of every time I catch up you are going to
put another carrot in front of me” – Mike O’Brien right before Ascended weapons
treadmill, of being in that obvious pattern of every time I catch up you are going to
put another carrot in front of me” – Mike O’Brien right before Ascended weapons
Did you use level 76+ rare, the patch made it 76+ rares only to get exotics.
If you used level 80 shields 200 at the cheapest would cost you 25g.And that definalty is not true
Yes it is, 11s at the very cheapest. Using your own mats is still money spent, if you didn’t notice mithril has gone up over double.
The rough numbers of percentages thrown around are only based on what people have experienced — if it was once assumed to be 20%, but now feels 10%, it’s only natural to assume something changed. If, as an extreme example, someone tried a 1000 forges, and it only resulted in one exotic, then sure, you could still call it “bad luck”, but in the end, we still only base these numbers on our own collective experiences. Unfortunately, from people actually forging, I’m seeing more “it’s been nerfed” than “it’s fine”.
As for arguing with probability… the RNG algorithm, for all we know, could fluctuate between a theoretical 1% to 50% chance on rares → exotics, or it could contain “gaps” of high failure-rates in-between iterations of numbers, or, on a less serious note, provide higher success-rates for players called Bilbo. :-) Due to these circumstances, any probabilities of success/failure are baseless assumptions as is everything else.
RE: This game will fall once dota 2 gets out of beta unless they do something about the economy. Why does the best loot and gold per hour happen where the bots are farming? why does killing dragons and dungeons give next to nothing. Why are the bots allowed to farm for 2 weeks before they get banned. It’s like a deal has been made or something….. This economy best serves bots, exploiters and gold buyers.
That’s what’s been bothering me all along. Fanboys are all so quick to jump aboard the “Defend GW2’s honor at all costs” bandwagon at the slightest criticism when I bring this point up. The drop cap was what started it all. Anet basically handed over the reins of the economy to botters when it instituted the cap. It was probably introduced in the name of controlling inflation. Then they kittened the Mystic Forge. On top of making armor pieces soulbound and so many other measures to curb inflation, Anet seems to have done a really good job of alienating its player base.
So much for trying to control player behavior.
I don’t understand why people keep throwing rares at the Mystic Forge in hope of scoring a precursor. Why not save your gold / mats and make exotics to throw at it, or just buy it off the TP? Depending on how much precursors cost when I finish my Karma / gold grind will determine if I want to try throwing exotics at the Mystic forge, or just buying my precursor.
As I understand it, the best chances for receiving a precursor back from the mystic forge is based off the rarity of the items you throw at it. So, named exotics > exotics > rares.
I think probability and statistics should be a required course in high school.
Case in point: this thread.
People making conclusions on whether a true mean has changed based on sample sizes of 10 or less.
For those of us who are required to understand statistics for our job (probably including the Anet employees who developed the loot tables), these comments and conclusions are pure comedy gold.
So by all means, keep stating with absolute certainty that mechanics of the game have changed after throwing a bunch of random crap in the forge a few times.
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