Guild Wars 2

Dusk just went up in price, last night price was 630 gold, now 3/10/13 at 16:57 ( 4:47 PM ) it’s at 700 gold. By the time I even reach 700 it’s going to be in the thousands.

RNG is RNG should I drop all the gold I have at the forge? I currently have 64g

Sure, do it. I have nothing to lose.

Svarty.8019:

Sure, do it. I have nothing to lose.

Kitten off.

I dabble with the forge once in a while. A few weeks ago I crafted 2 sets of exotic greatswords and rolled the dice. My rule of thumb is to never spend more than 10% of my wealth. I have decided never to buy a precursor. If the RNG God won’t grant me one I’ll go without. My personal goal is to make a Legendary without ever playing the TP. I never buy materials. I have set myself the goal to farm every component of the legendary by my self. Then it truly will be legendary! Good luck on your journey.

If you drop all your money into the forge and fail, be ready to face severe depression.

Assuming real-world market rules apply (which they probably don’t, or only loosely do), the price of the precursor on the TP will not rise much higher than the average forge gambling cost. Therefore, I’d say just save up the money to buy it off the TP. I’m currently working on the other parts of my legendary and leaving the precursor for last to farm money for it, unless I get lucky with a chest reward lol :P

Like stated above, set a % of your wealth you wish to gamble and stick to it. If you spend it all, depression will surely follow.

Far easier to turn that 64g into the money needed to buy Pre-c, than it is a few coppers, and shattered dreams

I think it depends on how long you are planning to play this game. If only for a couple more months at most then yes, gamble with the Mystic Toilet. If you plan to play for longer than that then you should do the slow and steady method. The odds are extremely high that you will not get anything if you gamble and throwing all your money away like that can be very disheartening. So, it depends on how long you plan to play and how willing you are to be disappointed.

OmniPotentes.4817:

I have set myself the goal to farm every component of the legendary by my self. Then it truly will be legendary!

Yes, because thousands of hours of grind are very legendary.
I have Twilight, Bolt, four T3 Sets, Anomaly and am currently working on Incinerator and Infinite light and I can proudly say that I did not have to grind for it.

Yeah, that’s why I added that it probably doesn’t apply or only loosely does.

shimmerless.4560:

it’s even possible that this greatsword is being undervalued.

Pretty much what I said, albeit indirectly since I didn’t want people to come in screaming “it’s too expensive for me!!1!1” :P What I was essentially saying is that the precursor’s price on the TP will probably rise until it reaches the gamble-value, probably overshoot a bit, and then fall back and hang around that average. But yeah, without a large (verified) sample size of people gambling for precursors, we don’t have a clue how fast/slow this is happening.

Please dont stop gambling! I am sure you all will get lucky some day!

;)

I puted nearly 800g in mystic forge trying make dusk or colossus. Result? 0 precursors:( I used exotics and rares to craft. My answer is: Don’t do it.

I know it’s tempting, but I wouldn’t (or rather – I would, and did – but hindsight says otherwise). The other night I spent about 200g gambling for it. And, of course, no precursor.

Basically, those that have gotten it after a few attempts are going to tell you to go for it. Those, like myself, that have dumped an excessive amount of gold in to no avail are going to tell you not to.

You could get lucky, and that would be great, but chances are you’ll end up with nothing, and feel like you just blew your nest egg in Vegas.

And that’s not a good feel, bro.

Me personally, i’d say don’t do it. Save up and just throw a bid offer. i did that like a week ago or so and got dawn for 473g. You will someone who will think your offer is fair assuming its close to the going price(altho i think the going prices are too high but that’s another story). I did notice that since last week, all The Colossus got sold out except the one for like 670g and dawn jumped up to 540g+ and dusk jumped up to around 670g+. Not sure why all this action on em but that’s kind of a derail on the thread :P

My vote is to gamble cautiously. Set an amount of gold you are willing to spend.

My other suggestion is to run a lot of dungeons with my guild and by exotics with the tokens you get. I run them all constantly and had so many tokens my first 2 attempts at Colossus was solely dungeon weapons and the next try I bought 3 of the cheapest exotics and I got it.

I know my experience is not the norm but using dungeon tokens saves you money and you make money while running dungeons.

Exactly. In my opinion, I see it as you putting faith in your luck at the cost of your effort and motivation.You decide whether your money and time is worth it or not, and if you go with it for some ungodly reason, be prepared to be depressed for a while.

Zumy.6318:

OmniPotentes.4817:

I have set myself the goal to farm every component of the legendary by my self. Then it truly will be legendary!

Yes, because thousands of hours of grind are very legendary.
I have Twilight, Bolt, four T3 Sets, Anomaly and am currently working on Incinerator and Infinite light and I can proudly say that I did not have to grind for it.

It’s sad they paint something as legendary when all it takes is your mom’s credit card and a gold seller to make a legendary (or any other weapon really). Nothing legendary about them, really. :\

Making my Items did not cost me anything but 5000 Gems.
And If I need a CC, I will use one of the 3 I own myself.

Don’t do it, it’ll suck out your soul.

atm it costs about 1.30 silver per T5 mat and apparently the odds of a Precursor are 0.3% on 4 rares according to some other forums that consolidated a large sample.

So thats 25 odd silver per crafted rare, at four rares per flush with a 0.3% chance it works out at 333G average for getting a precursor by my calculations, assuming the 0.3 is accurate.
Factor in getting a rare back 80% of the time and an exotic 20% for a more accurate average, I can’t be bothered to do this though :-)

I would use the 64G as a starting point for making money from the TP. There’s a good blog about this kind of thing right here:

http://www.guildwars2tradingpost.com/2013/03/saving-gold-to-farm-gold.html

Some of the recommendations in that blog are kind of mean and I would stay away from them. But the basic ideas (buy undervalued items, sell overvalued items) are pretty solid and should see you right.

Good luck!

I dumped 20g of rare greatswords the other day, got 4 exotics (2 named), threw them back in reluctantly and got dawn then gave it to my guildy to make his sunrise. Overall I probably threw about 90g in the mystic toilet. It’s safe to say, you have an awesome chance at dusk/dawn at around 450g given 30s if you take the time to craft each sword. Only problem is you might get dawn and then you would be basically back at square one. Smart thing is to save, but I don’t see any harm in mystic dumping if you are done with farming everything esle for your legendary.

64g nonetheless is not enough to get a decent chance - I’d say that’s about a 20% chance you’ll get your precursor.

You sir got extremely lucky. Your story is far from the norm. Basically like others have said, if you cab’t stomach the chance of losing hundreds of gold and getting nothing, then don’t chance it. Just do a search of all the MF posts and you will see the chances are from 1 try to 1000 tries for a precursor. Do you feel lucky?

Don’t do it!

I got drunk, opened a fortune cookie telling me I was going to have great success and luck in life, then (once again) tossed a ludicrous amount of gold in rares and exotics into the forge, hoping for Dawn or Dusk.

Nada. Depressing mechanic is depressing.

It would be nice if there was some sort of reward mechanic tied into the forge – like each attempt is logged, and increases your odds of a precursor. But there’s not. So… you’re either very lucky, or you’re a fool out a substantial amount of gold you could have just gone ahead and saved.

TheAngryLuddite.1834:

Don’t do it!

I got drunk, opened a fortune cookie telling me I was going to have great success and luck in life, then (once again) tossed a ludicrous amount of gold in rares and exotics into the forge, hoping for Dawn or Dusk.

Nada. Depressing mechanic is depressing.

It would be nice if there was some sort of reward mechanic tied into the forge – like each attempt is logged, and increases your odds of a precursor. But there’s not. So… you’re either very lucky, or you’re a fool out a substantial amount of gold you could have just gone ahead and saved.

Trust me I Feel ur pain put so many Extoics n rares into forge…. nothing… and I bought 30g worth of named exotics sunday and still no dusk

I tossed in 100 rares the other day and got nothing, I’ve done it numerous times and got nothing. I don’t mind trying when i have the mats to make the rares. Otherwise it’s a waste if you’re going to be buying the stuff.

I gamble all of the time for Dusk, but mostly because I carry the following philosophy:

“You can’t win the lottery if you never buy a lottery ticket.”

Direngrey.8376:

Dusk just went up in price, last night price was 630 gold, now 3/10/13 at 16:57 ( 4:47 PM ) it’s at 700 gold. By the time I even reach 700 it’s going to be in the thousands.

RNG is RNG should I drop all the gold I have at the forge? I currently have 64g

It’s been hovering at about 700g for weeks. Few people undercut it down but it always seems to bounce back up. From my observations planning out getting my Dusk, it seemed that anyone offering much over 600g didn’t last long either. So I opted to shoot for the 600g mark and sure enough made an offer at 607ish and got it.

Before all that I set myself a cap to try in the forge before just giving up. I’d set aside 10ish and try 2ish, repeat. Soon enough I lucked out and got Dawn, sold it, and just saved up the difference. This, of course, was after I had everything else done, so anything I did was for max profit.

I personally suggest to not gamble, clearly. Waste of efforts and ingame time and resources. Keep saving money, you will realize you spent less (except if luck strikes, don’t count on it). Maybe one day you get it for free as a drop, or you drop an other precursor and sell it, and you will be pretty much done.

Being trying a while now. over 200 rares and 50 exotics. No luck yet.
Overall loss of gold around 200g. I am just convinced it will not drop from the Mys.Forge for me.

But on the other hand you hear stories of a guy dropping one time 4 rares for the daily and get a pre, the other get 2 precursors on 80 exotics and you say wtfffffffffffffffff

Darklimbo.1476:

Being trying a while now. over 200 rares and 50 exotics. No luck yet.
Overall loss of gold around 200g. I am just convinced it will not drop from the Mys.Forge for me.

But on the other hand you hear stories of a guy dropping one time 4 rares for the daily and get a pre, the other get 2 precursors on 80 exotics and you say wtfffffffffffffffff

Your pain is felt by many.

This is a pretty divisive issue – there are those that got ridiculously lucky, and those like us that saw their gold fly away on little, sad wings.

TheAngryLuddite.1834:

Darklimbo.1476:

Being trying a while now. over 200 rares and 50 exotics. No luck yet.
Overall loss of gold around 200g. I am just convinced it will not drop from the Mys.Forge for me.

But on the other hand you hear stories of a guy dropping one time 4 rares for the daily and get a pre, the other get 2 precursors on 80 exotics and you say wtfffffffffffffffff

Your pain is felt by many.

This is a pretty divisive issue – there are those that got ridiculously lucky, and those like us that saw their gold fly away on little, sad wings.

This goes to both of you.
So I had about 178g saved up, from farming CoF.

I decided hey, 10g wont hurt my income.

I tried I believe 5 times? I got 2 exotics ( named ones ) and the rest rares.

Decided to spend another 10, got back no exotics.

Spent another 10 ( I have a gambling addiction ) got a exotic and rest rare.

I stopped after that. I must of attempted 15-20 tries. No return.

RNG in this game is stupid.

I’ve tried the mystic toilet a few times. It’s frustrating and unfun. I hate losing repeatedly, no skill involved and no chance of learning how to to better, and this feels to much like gambling, which I also don’t like. It dislike it so much, it made me decide to not even try for a legendary.

When you use the exotics that you bought with dungeon tokens , did you use the same d.tokens or different ones, for exapmple, I have about 3000 ascalonian tears, and Would it be wise to turn them into the exotic Greatswords and aim for Dusk ? Or do I need to grind other dungeons so I can put one of each in the forge, for an example, cof , sorrows , ascalonian and hotw.

Wasted 400g in the forge intotal.

Some people get a precusor within their first 20g in.

Luck is just luck, theres no controlling rng, most people will never get a MF precusor, or will actually spend more than their precusor is worth in the MF.

Basicly , all we can do is play, play and just play , and if it drops…wooohooo, if not then kitten it ^^

thats what i believe also after all those tries.
I you dont get it with exotics in the 20 tries (80 exotics) then just save your money and buy it off the tp. Or better dont even try in MF

You ll avoid a full of cursing evening xD

Masamoon.3864:

Wasted 400g in the forge intotal.

Some people get a precusor within their first 20g in.

Luck is just luck, theres no controlling rng, most people will never get a MF precusor, or will actually spend more than their precusor is worth in the MF.

Or just wait for the hunt crap the GM talked about to get one >.< seems be the only way honestly ; / i myself wasted well over 200g on Exotics(Named) and tons of rares trying to get my Dusk its last thing I need for my Legendary sword still nothing so best thing do in my eyes save ur gold and either save up for it or wait for the “Savanger Hunt” they talked about adding for precursers because RNG Is Terrible well for msot of us atleast

The Scavenger Hunt isn’t gonna happen for a long time my friend.

You seems to have more luck dropping in MF exotics weapons that you crafted yourself than any you would buy on the TP. I don’t know why but it’s what I could notice. Dropping 4 exotics weapons from dungeons tokens rewards is also a good safer and cheaper way to get a precursor.

People look at the prices of precursors and assume that it’s all based on rarity. It isn’t. Think about what’s going to happen to them over the next 6 months to a year as the people that care about getting a Legendary weapon either get one, stop caring, or quit the game. The prices of Precursors are 100% demand based. Don’t buy one when everyone else is buying them.

Titan.3472:

You seems to have more luck dropping in MF exotics weapons that you crafted yourself than any you would buy on the TP. I don’t know why but it’s what I could notice. Dropping 4 exotics weapons from dungeons tokens rewards is also a good safer and cheaper way to get a precursor.

ya well seems only thing u can do is wait n chill because MF is trash with its RNG just last week up till today also over 400 Rares into forge nothing and i did like 20 something Exotics this morning not even 1 named Exotic returned all perral w/e swords

I really don’t like how getting a precursor is so random. I’m trying to get Dusk too, I have use the MF too many time witout great result. it’s more about luck than skill or anything else. I’m just keeping my money now to buy it!

The legendaries are supposed to (sic);

• “show off your accomplishments and symbolise all of the things that you’ve been doing” (Lead Designer Isiah Cartwright – in this video) and,
• “show everyone that you are a true master of Guild Wars 2” (quoted from here).

The random of precusor just doesn’t show any of this. It just another money sink. I thing something could be done to improve it. Make it more rewarding at the end than random or buying it from TP.

I did a sugesstion here

I think it would be a fabulous way to get a precursor and it touch every PVE aspect of the game. If you like it, tell it so dev can see it or add you ideas or comments.

Dear Diary:

Another 60g down the Mystic Pooper in Rares and Exotics.

No precursors, just a lot of wasted money.

You’d think I’d learn, right?

Well Dearest Diary, I just keep thinking, “If I’ve put this much into it, I must be close – my luck’s bound to turn around. How can I stop now?”

=\

I may need an intervention.

TheAngryLuddite.1834:

Dear Diary:

Another 60g down the Mystic Pooper in Rares and Exotics.

No precursors, just a lot of wasted money.

You’d think I’d learn, right?

Well Dearest Diary, I just keep thinking, “If I’ve put this much into it, I must be close – my luck’s bound to turn around. How can I stop now?”

=\

I may need an intervention.

Stop wasting your money. You would be half way to buy it already.

Darklimbo.1476:

TheAngryLuddite.1834:

Dear Diary:

Another 60g down the Mystic Pooper in Rares and Exotics.

No precursors, just a lot of wasted money.

You’d think I’d learn, right?

Well Dearest Diary, I just keep thinking, “If I’ve put this much into it, I must be close – my luck’s bound to turn around. How can I stop now?”

=\

I may need an intervention.

Stop wasting your money. You would be half way to buy it already.

Sage advice, this.

Now if only I’d heed it…

TheAngryLuddite.1834:

Darklimbo.1476:

TheAngryLuddite.1834:

Dear Diary:

Another 60g down the Mystic Pooper in Rares and Exotics.

No precursors, just a lot of wasted money.

You’d think I’d learn, right?

Well Dearest Diary, I just keep thinking, “If I’ve put this much into it, I must be close – my luck’s bound to turn around. How can I stop now?”

=\

I may need an intervention.

Stop wasting your money. You would be half way to buy it already.

Sage advice, this.

Now if only I’d heed it…

well I can honestly Say I love Mystic Forge now lmao… My wife desided to try Mystic Forge the other day with 40 Rares and 20 something exotic Greatswords I mailed her and she sent be back a Dusk ^^ so I have my Twilight now and im beyond happy now lol

Demeron.5423:

TheAngryLuddite.1834:

Darklimbo.1476:

TheAngryLuddite.1834:

Dear Diary:

Another 60g down the Mystic Pooper in Rares and Exotics.

No precursors, just a lot of wasted money.

You’d think I’d learn, right?

Well Dearest Diary, I just keep thinking, “If I’ve put this much into it, I must be close – my luck’s bound to turn around. How can I stop now?”

=\

I may need an intervention.

Stop wasting your money. You would be half way to buy it already.

Sage advice, this.

Now if only I’d heed it…

well I can honestly Say I love Mystic Forge now lmao… My wife desided to try Mystic Forge the other day with 40 Rares and 20 something exotic Greatswords I mailed her and she sent be back a Dusk ^^ so I have my Twilight now and im beyond happy now lol

That’s pretty much how it works.

If the MF gives you a precursor, it’s awesome.

If you spend 100s of gold and it doesn’t, it’s evil.

The camp I’m in right now should be pretty obvious.

D:

TheAngryLuddite.1834:

Demeron.5423:

TheAngryLuddite.1834:

Darklimbo.1476:

TheAngryLuddite.1834:

Dear Diary:

Another 60g down the Mystic Pooper in Rares and Exotics.

No precursors, just a lot of wasted money.

You’d think I’d learn, right?

Well Dearest Diary, I just keep thinking, “If I’ve put this much into it, I must be close – my luck’s bound to turn around. How can I stop now?”

=\

I may need an intervention.

Stop wasting your money. You would be half way to buy it already.

Sage advice, this.

Now if only I’d heed it…

well I can honestly Say I love Mystic Forge now lmao… My wife desided to try Mystic Forge the other day with 40 Rares and 20 something exotic Greatswords I mailed her and she sent be back a Dusk ^^ so I have my Twilight now and im beyond happy now lol

That’s pretty much how it works.

If the MF gives you a precursor, it’s awesome.

If you spend 100s of gold and it doesn’t, it’s evil.

The camp I’m in right now should be pretty obvious.

D:

dont get me wrong i dont plan on useing MF for a long fliping time now lol