[Suggestion] Precursor Crafting
While the idea may have some merit, implementing it in the current loot table structure (as I understand it) would not be trivial in the least.
We go out in the world and take our chances
Fate is just the weight of circumstances
That’s the way that lady luck dances
Fate is just the weight of circumstances
That’s the way that lady luck dances
Why would it be trivial?
This idea is fantastic! IMHO, Arenanet’s core philosophy is to have players play the game instead of endlessly grinding for tokens to get gear and weapons like other MMOs. This idea would coincide with that development philosophy…reward the players who play the game. I would add certain materials should give higher odds than others. For example, four exotic dungeon great swords should give a higher chance for dusk or dawn than crafted exotics or rares.
I’ve looked at the numbers enough on this for it to be clear that it would not benefit the median player.
If all you want to do is smooth out the curve, not have this be a huge increase in the precursor drop rate, it would mean lowering the drop rate from the forge for the first several crafts to compensate for higher drop rates after you have been forging a while. In the long run, you would see about the same number of precursors, but they would show up at more regular intervals.
If you used a linear increase in the drop rate with each failure, starting at effectively zero, that would mean that the drop rate would be lower than it is now until you’ve had roughly 100 failures.
Also, cumulatively, it would mean waiting longer for a precursor, on average; at current numbers, you have a 50% chance of seeing a precursor before roughly your 111th exotic, but under the linearly increasing system the 50% chance doesn’t hit until roughly your 150th exotic.
The benefits are on the back end – at the moment, you have only an 85% chance to see a precursor by your 300th exotic, but under the linear system it would be closer to 94%.
The sort of increasing system you propose would be a big boon to dedicated precursor forgers; it would smooth out the luck and break up the very long losing streaks that pose the biggest risks. But for your average player, who doesn’t throw thousands of rares into the forge, it would make the forge even less rewarding; the odds of getting a lucky forge as a casual player are awful.
This doesn’t even get into the way it can pervert incentives – in this kind of system, you only get rewarded if you are really dedicated, instead of randomly, so just throwing 4 rares or exotics into the forge on a whim is awful in the proposed system; if you’re not doing to do it en masse, don’t even bother.
Of course, you could compensate for this somewhat by making the drop rate higher, overall – you’re excluding casual players getting lucky, after all, so the drop rate can probably go up a bit to keep output the same. But this is a net transfer, from random lucky casuals to dedicated forgers. Do we really want this to be a mechanic that drives the economy towards the rich getting richer?
I definitely appreciate how frustrating an independent, low percentage system can be. At the same time, I don’t think the casual player really grasps just how many resources need to be consumed by the forge to spit out a precursor. You need to feed the thing rares by the thousands, and evening out the odds isn’t going to change that.
I’ve looked at the numbers enough on this for it to be clear that it would not benefit the median player.
If you used a linear increase in the drop rate with each failure, starting at effectively zero, that would mean that the drop rate would be lower than it is now until you’ve had roughly 100 failures.
Precursor Magic Find would be an additional probability on top of the baseline chance that alright exists. So if the baseline chance now is 0.07% (or whatever the number is), we would begin to increase from that number, not start at zero, as you suggest above.
If that’s too hard to implement, they could just say that 4 ascended weapons of the same type (no mystic forge stones) guarantee a precursor.
Precursor Magic Find would be an additional probability on top of the baseline chance that alright exists. So if the baseline chance now is 0.07% (or whatever the number is), we would begin to increase from that number, not start at zero, as you suggest above.
Why not just ask for a massive increase in the drop rate then?
Precursor Magic Find would be an additional probability on top of the baseline chance that alright exists. So if the baseline chance now is 0.07% (or whatever the number is), we would begin to increase from that number, not start at zero, as you suggest above.
Why not just ask for a massive increase in the drop rate then?
…because that would just result in less people getting screwed over by a toilet. When you have a better and better chance at getting a precursor it helps make sure no one ends up throwing millions of exotics in with nothing coming out.
Precursor Magic Find would be an additional probability on top of the baseline chance that alright exists. So if the baseline chance now is 0.07% (or whatever the number is), we would begin to increase from that number, not start at zero, as you suggest above.
Why not just ask for a massive increase in the drop rate then?
I’m sure everyone would just love for all the other materials involved in legendary crafting to have their prices go up and with that the cost of everything else (e.g. Ascended, exotics, etc).
I think the only fair way to change this system is to not change the system. Like ensign clearly pointed out, you can’t keep increasing the odds without a supply shock, unless you decrease the initial odds (screwing normal players, benefiting rich players).
The only way to fix the precursor system, in my opinion is to do nothing with the current legendaries. They should release new legendaries with new precursors (or no precursors) that have more straightforward methods of acquisition for those that prefer it that way.
I think the only fair way to change this system is to not change the system. Like ensign clearly pointed out, you can’t keep increasing the odds without a supply shock, unless you decrease the initial odds (screwing normal players, benefiting rich players).
The only way to fix the precursor system, in my opinion is to do nothing with the current legendaries. They should release new legendaries with new precursors (or no precursors) that have more straightforward methods of acquisition for those that prefer it that way.
That would still shock the market, because then demand would go down for the regular precursors, and then the price would fall off of a cliff. That’s the same thing that would happen if we made it easier for people to get precursors.
I think the only fair way to change this system is to not change the system. Like ensign clearly pointed out, you can’t keep increasing the odds without a supply shock, unless you decrease the initial odds (screwing normal players, benefiting rich players).
The only way to fix the precursor system, in my opinion is to do nothing with the current legendaries. They should release new legendaries with new precursors (or no precursors) that have more straightforward methods of acquisition for those that prefer it that way.
That would still shock the market, because then demand would go down for the regular precursors, and then the price would fall off of a cliff. That’s the same thing that would happen if we made it easier for people to get precursors.
That won’t happen or at least to the degree that you appear to be implying.
I think the only fair way to change this system is to not change the system. Like ensign clearly pointed out, you can’t keep increasing the odds without a supply shock, unless you decrease the initial odds (screwing normal players, benefiting rich players).
The only way to fix the precursor system, in my opinion is to do nothing with the current legendaries. They should release new legendaries with new precursors (or no precursors) that have more straightforward methods of acquisition for those that prefer it that way.
That would still shock the market, because then demand would go down for the regular precursors, and then the price would fall off of a cliff. That’s the same thing that would happen if we made it easier for people to get precursors.
That won’t happen.
Why not? If you divide the demand by two, the price is gonna drop.
I’d prefer that they allow Magic Find to improve your chances of getting an upgraded item from the Forge, or in the case of exotics, improve your chances of getting a Precursor.
Server: Devona’s Rest
The only thing I was hoping to improve is the fairness aspect of obtaining a legendary. Keep that in mind. It is not fair that some people get lucky in 10 tries and some people still have nothing after 1000 or more tries. By smoothing out the fairness problem and saying to a player: “If you keep at it, you’ll finally get one.” you remove the anger and frustration that is associated with this crafting effort.
Legendaries are nothing so uncommon anymore. A lot of people have them. Anet should perhaps think of introducing some really stunning, unique, ascended weapon drops that cannot be crafted (think: Crystalline Sword Q9). It’s still hard enough to obtain a legendary — but the relative effort and expense in obtaining one should be roughly equal from player to player for a single legendary.
I think the only fair way to change this system is to not change the system. Like ensign clearly pointed out, you can’t keep increasing the odds without a supply shock, unless you decrease the initial odds (screwing normal players, benefiting rich players).
The only way to fix the precursor system, in my opinion is to do nothing with the current legendaries. They should release new legendaries with new precursors (or no precursors) that have more straightforward methods of acquisition for those that prefer it that way.
That would still shock the market, because then demand would go down for the regular precursors, and then the price would fall off of a cliff. That’s the same thing that would happen if we made it easier for people to get precursors.
no…
1) people will still want the ‘old’ legendaries
2) most pres come from people forging them, which sets the price. Less people will do this if demand drops, so supply will drop… so nothing will change.
3) even if I were wrong about 1 and 2 a game will make very little progress if you’re not willing to introduce new items because they may shock other markets. But I’m not wrong about 1 and 2, the market would be able to sustain the shift in player priorities.
The only thing I was hoping to improve is the fairness aspect of obtaining a legendary. Keep that in mind. It is not fair that some people get lucky in 10 tries and some people still have nothing after 1000 or more tries. By smoothing out the fairness problem and saying to a player: “If you keep at it, you’ll finally get one.” you remove the anger and frustration that is associated with this crafting effort.
Legendaries are nothing so uncommon anymore. A lot of people have them. Anet should perhaps think of introducing some really stunning, unique, ascended weapon drops that cannot be crafted (think: Crystalline Sword Q9). It’s still hard enough to obtain a legendary — but the relative effort and expense in obtaining one should be roughly equal from player to player for a single legendary.
The mystic forge is like a lotto. Some people like lottos, some people don’t. But no one would ever play a lotto if it was ‘fair’ as you suggest. Yes some people will get lucky the first time they buy a ticket and some people will buy tickets their whole life and never win. That’s the point.
Lucky you, getting a precursor isn’t a lotto unless you want it to be. They’re just so valuable you want one for cheaper than their price. Pay the price or play the lotto, that’s how it works. New legendaries don’t have to be this way, but you can bet they’ll still be expensive (but maybe they’ll feel more epic to obtain, that’d be nice).
sorry for double post, replies occured while posting
I think the only fair way to change this system is to not change the system. Like ensign clearly pointed out, you can’t keep increasing the odds without a supply shock, unless you decrease the initial odds (screwing normal players, benefiting rich players).
The only way to fix the precursor system, in my opinion is to do nothing with the current legendaries. They should release new legendaries with new precursors (or no precursors) that have more straightforward methods of acquisition for those that prefer it that way.
That would still shock the market, because then demand would go down for the regular precursors, and then the price would fall off of a cliff. That’s the same thing that would happen if we made it easier for people to get precursors.
no…
1) people will still want the ‘old’ legendaries
2) most pres come from people forging them, which sets the price. Less people will do this if demand drops, so supply will drop… so nothing will change.
3) even if I were wrong about 1 and 2 a game will make very little progress if you’re not willing to introduce new items because they may shock other markets. But I’m not wrong about 1 and 2, the market would be able to sustain the shift in player priorities.
Yes people will still want them, but not as many. Players will go for the other craftable legendaries simply because they are craftable. If they look good people will go for them anyway, so the demand will drop by around 50%, and the supply coming in drops by 50%, but the supply that’s already on the tp or in the hands of players stays the same, meaning an excess. I’m not arguing against adding TP crafting, I’m just saying that there’s no way to go around it without a market shock. Every time ANet tries to prevent a market shock it backfires (Take silk. The price skyrocketed and supply dropped, and now we have to deal with timegating)
I think the only fair way to change this system is to not change the system. Like ensign clearly pointed out, you can’t keep increasing the odds without a supply shock, unless you decrease the initial odds (screwing normal players, benefiting rich players).
The only way to fix the precursor system, in my opinion is to do nothing with the current legendaries. They should release new legendaries with new precursors (or no precursors) that have more straightforward methods of acquisition for those that prefer it that way.
That would still shock the market, because then demand would go down for the regular precursors, and then the price would fall off of a cliff. That’s the same thing that would happen if we made it easier for people to get precursors.
That won’t happen.
Why not? If you divide the demand by two, the price is gonna drop.
You’re making the assumption that demand will drop significantly when it likely won’t. They will still be high in demand. It’s just that there will be more legendary weapons to choose from. If you followed the demand for other weapon skins, you’d see what I was talking about.
Demand is not mutually exclusive. There’s a better way to phrase it but it’s more easily understandable the current way used.
I think the only fair way to change this system is to not change the system. Like ensign clearly pointed out, you can’t keep increasing the odds without a supply shock, unless you decrease the initial odds (screwing normal players, benefiting rich players).
The only way to fix the precursor system, in my opinion is to do nothing with the current legendaries. They should release new legendaries with new precursors (or no precursors) that have more straightforward methods of acquisition for those that prefer it that way.
That would still shock the market, because then demand would go down for the regular precursors, and then the price would fall off of a cliff. That’s the same thing that would happen if we made it easier for people to get precursors.
no…
1) people will still want the ‘old’ legendaries
2) most pres come from people forging them, which sets the price. Less people will do this if demand drops, so supply will drop… so nothing will change.
3) even if I were wrong about 1 and 2 a game will make very little progress if you’re not willing to introduce new items because they may shock other markets. But I’m not wrong about 1 and 2, the market would be able to sustain the shift in player priorities.Yes people will still want them, but not as many. Players will go for the other craftable legendaries simply because they are craftable. If they look good people will go for them anyway, so the demand will drop by around 50%, and the supply coming in drops by 50%, but the supply that’s already on the tp or in the hands of players stays the same, meaning an excess. I’m not arguing against adding TP crafting, I’m just saying that there’s no way to go around it without a market shock. Every time ANet tries to prevent a market shock it backfires (Take silk. The price skyrocketed and supply dropped, and now we have to deal with timegating)
have you looked at precursors supplies? Spark, for example, has 7 available. Not sure how you think that can shock a market…
I think the only fair way to change this system is to not change the system. Like ensign clearly pointed out, you can’t keep increasing the odds without a supply shock, unless you decrease the initial odds (screwing normal players, benefiting rich players).
The only way to fix the precursor system, in my opinion is to do nothing with the current legendaries. They should release new legendaries with new precursors (or no precursors) that have more straightforward methods of acquisition for those that prefer it that way.
That would still shock the market, because then demand would go down for the regular precursors, and then the price would fall off of a cliff. That’s the same thing that would happen if we made it easier for people to get precursors.
That won’t happen.
Why not? If you divide the demand by two, the price is gonna drop.
You’re making the assumption that demand will drop significantly when it likely won’t. They will still be high in demand. It’s just that there will be more legendary weapons to choose from. If you followed the demand for other weapon skins, you’d see what I was talking about.
Demand is not mutually exclusive. There’s a better way to phrase it but it’s more easily understandable the current way used.
You’re making the assumption that it won’t drop. If these new legendaries looked as good as the previous one and had a guaranteed way of getting a precursor, around 50% of people could go for it because it looks good, and however many more will go for it simply because it has a craftable precursor not to mention all the people who already have a legendary could go for it. There are countless factors and I’m assuming the worst whereas you are assuming the best.
I think the only fair way to change this system is to not change the system. Like ensign clearly pointed out, you can’t keep increasing the odds without a supply shock, unless you decrease the initial odds (screwing normal players, benefiting rich players).
The only way to fix the precursor system, in my opinion is to do nothing with the current legendaries. They should release new legendaries with new precursors (or no precursors) that have more straightforward methods of acquisition for those that prefer it that way.
That would still shock the market, because then demand would go down for the regular precursors, and then the price would fall off of a cliff. That’s the same thing that would happen if we made it easier for people to get precursors.
That won’t happen.
Why not? If you divide the demand by two, the price is gonna drop.
You’re making the assumption that demand will drop significantly when it likely won’t. They will still be high in demand. It’s just that there will be more legendary weapons to choose from. If you followed the demand for other weapon skins, you’d see what I was talking about.
Demand is not mutually exclusive. There’s a better way to phrase it but it’s more easily understandable the current way used.
You’re making the assumption that it won’t drop. If these new legendaries looked as good as the previous one and had a guaranteed way of getting a precursor, around 50% of people could go for it because it looks good, and however many more will go for it simply because it has a craftable precursor not to mention all the people who already have a legendary could go for it. There are countless factors and I’m assuming the worst whereas you are assuming the best.
you’re assuming the supply is free of the demand. Precursors very rarely drop in the world. Most supply comes from forges. This isn’t like some basic crafting mat like mithril that supply is constant. If demand drops people will stop producing. The precursor market is protected from price drops because it has very low stock at any given point and the supply is only created when demand is high enough for people to warrant it worth their time. This equilibrium will control prices, not players’ goals.
Your world would mean any time any new expensive item, legendary or not, is introduced we should expect price mayhem as people will decide to reroute their funds to the new item instead of the legendary they were gonna craft.
I think the only fair way to change this system is to not change the system. Like ensign clearly pointed out, you can’t keep increasing the odds without a supply shock, unless you decrease the initial odds (screwing normal players, benefiting rich players).
The only way to fix the precursor system, in my opinion is to do nothing with the current legendaries. They should release new legendaries with new precursors (or no precursors) that have more straightforward methods of acquisition for those that prefer it that way.
That would still shock the market, because then demand would go down for the regular precursors, and then the price would fall off of a cliff. That’s the same thing that would happen if we made it easier for people to get precursors.
That won’t happen.
Why not? If you divide the demand by two, the price is gonna drop.
You’re making the assumption that demand will drop significantly when it likely won’t. They will still be high in demand. It’s just that there will be more legendary weapons to choose from. If you followed the demand for other weapon skins, you’d see what I was talking about.
Demand is not mutually exclusive. There’s a better way to phrase it but it’s more easily understandable the current way used.
You’re making the assumption that it won’t drop. If these new legendaries looked as good as the previous one and had a guaranteed way of getting a precursor, around 50% of people could go for it because it looks good, and however many more will go for it simply because it has a craftable precursor not to mention all the people who already have a legendary could go for it. There are countless factors and I’m assuming the worst whereas you are assuming the best.
Please stop making up arguments and saying they came from me. I did not say that demand would not drop. I said that it would either not drop or not as much as you may be assuming. See the difference? I hope so.
Demand for precursors will not change as much as you think because they are not substitutes of each other. If people wanted these precursors now, chances are they’ll still want these after the fact. You’re making the assumption that they will want one or the other and not both. It doesn’t work like that as evidenced by other skins available.
You’re also pulling the assumption about demand dropping by 50% out of nowhere. It’s based on nothing but you’re opinion. There’s really no reasoning behind it as you have not shown how you came up with that percentage. It shows that you don’t understand the demand that players have for skins in this game.
You also don’t understand how precursors are primarily created in this game. The majority that show up on the market are not from drops.
(edited by Ayrilana.1396)
I think the only fair way to change this system is to not change the system. Like ensign clearly pointed out, you can’t keep increasing the odds without a supply shock, unless you decrease the initial odds (screwing normal players, benefiting rich players).
The only way to fix the precursor system, in my opinion is to do nothing with the current legendaries. They should release new legendaries with new precursors (or no precursors) that have more straightforward methods of acquisition for those that prefer it that way.
That would still shock the market, because then demand would go down for the regular precursors, and then the price would fall off of a cliff. That’s the same thing that would happen if we made it easier for people to get precursors.
That won’t happen.
Why not? If you divide the demand by two, the price is gonna drop.
You’re making the assumption that demand will drop significantly when it likely won’t. They will still be high in demand. It’s just that there will be more legendary weapons to choose from. If you followed the demand for other weapon skins, you’d see what I was talking about.
Demand is not mutually exclusive. There’s a better way to phrase it but it’s more easily understandable the current way used.
You’re making the assumption that it won’t drop. If these new legendaries looked as good as the previous one and had a guaranteed way of getting a precursor, around 50% of people could go for it because it looks good, and however many more will go for it simply because it has a craftable precursor not to mention all the people who already have a legendary could go for it. There are countless factors and I’m assuming the worst whereas you are assuming the best.
Please stop making up arguments and saying they came from me. I did not say that demand would not drop. I said that it would either not drop or not as much as you may be assuming. See the difference? I hope so.
Demand for precursors will not change as much as you think because they are not substitutes of each other. If people wanted these precursors now, chances are they’ll still want these after the fact. You’re making the assumption that they will want one or the other and not both. It doesn’t work like that as evidenced by other skins available.
You’re also pulling the assumption about demand dropping by 50% out of nowhere. It’s based on nothing but you’re opinion. There’s really no reasoning behind it as you have not shown how you came up with that percentage. It shows that you don’t understand the demand that players have for skins in this game.
You also don’t understand how precursors are primarily created in this game. The majority that show up on the market are not from drops.
If you actually read my post you’d understand where 50% comes from. If the new legendaries are of the same visual quality as the current ones it will be down to individual taste to determine who gets what. If you have two options of equal value, it’s only fair to assume that people will be divided 50/50 on it. I hope I have explained my logic clearly enough.
If the rate at which people buy precursors slows down, then prices go down. Prices will recover eventually, but their will still be a market shock as the people with precursors freak out, just like with Dyes. I’m assuming it will be the reverse of dyes though, since demand should go down, instead of up though.
Also, I didn’t make up an argument for you, you stated the following:
“You’re making the assumption that demand will drop significantly when it likely won’t.”
I read that as you don’t think demand will drop significantly, when as little as 10% less demand is significant from a market standpoint.
the recipe for crafting a précursor could be like: 1000 bloodstone brick, dragonite ore and empyreal star, and like 50 ascended weapons of your choice.
like that you can craft a precursor but not very often.
Again, you’re still pulling that percentage based in your opinions. You’re assuming people will want one or the other and not both. I’ve mentioned this at least twice in my posts. Nothing in your posts clearly states why it would be 50% instead of 75%, 65%, 80%, and so on.
Yes, lowered demand will result in lowered prices. However, you’re making the assumption that it’s a large percentage of demand that will go away which likely will not be the case. We also do not know at what percentage that demand would have to drop to actually affect the prices. It’s not a one for one relationship. There’s also no reliable way to see demand as buy orders are not demand.
If prices dropped significantly then there would be less incentive for players to gamble at the mystic forge. This is where a large percentage of precursors come from. If there’s less incentive, players stop gambling, supply drops, and prices rise.
I stated significantly because you said 50%. I find that percentage to be very unlikely to occur. I thought I put that explanation why but maybe I edited it out before posting the post. As stated, before, it’s difficult to determine at what percentage of a drop in demand that will cause a drop in prices as we do not have access to see my measure demand.
Anyway, I feel like we’re talking in circles. I also want to ask that we just drop our arguments about what one person may or may not have meant in their arguments. I recently had to deal with someone that kept arguing what I meant in my own post, after numerous clarifications, to the point that they were trolling for 2+ pages and I don’t want to go through that again.
I recently had to deal with someone that kept arguing what I meant in my own post, after numerous clarifications, to the point that they were trolling for 2+ pages and I don’t want to go through that again.
I’m not sure if I should laugh, cry, or both. Oh well, I agree to disagree. We’ll just have to wait and see what happens.