Guild Wars 2

Statistically speaking, as far as ascended chest drop frequency is concerned, I have got to be the biggest outlier there is. Currently going on 2 months without an ascended chest. That must be at least 3 standard deviations from the mean. Tbh, in despair I now usually only do the “fast” fractals like aquatic, molten boss, volcanic, solid ocean, etc. which means I probably average a little over 1 fractal per day. But still, 60 fractals without a drop? Whatever I did to anger anet, I am deeply sorry, and hope that some day I can be removed from the naughty list.

Regards,
Osu, worst RNG NA

There must be someone RNGsus hates, so the rest of us can get their chests.

I have been getting 1-3 per week, though 2-3 times per week I’ve gotten nothing but useless potions so that kind of evens out.

4 years without a precursor *woe is me
But seriously though, if you want ascended items so badly, you could’ve crafted a full set in this 2 month period. Or better yet, now you can save your matrices and outright buy the ascended chests in the Fractal Lobby

Osu.6307:

Statistically speaking, as far as ascended chest drop frequency is concerned, I have got to be the biggest outlier there is. Currently going on 2 months without an ascended chest. That must be at least 3 standard deviations from the mean. Tbh, in despair I now usually only do the “fast” fractals like aquatic, molten boss, volcanic, solid ocean, etc. which means I probably average a little over 1 fractal per day. But still, 60 fractals without a drop? Whatever I did to anger anet, I am deeply sorry, and hope that some day I can be removed from the naughty list.

Regards,
Osu, worst RNG NA

60 fracts without an ascended drop happens around 2-3 times per 10,000 T4 runs. So not only is your luck bad, it’s not even as bad as you fear; it can be worse.

I don’t really need the ascended chests to drop. I have spares in my bank if I need them. I am more just shocked and amazed that my luck is this bad. Btw, I haven’t ever had a precursor drop either.

Same, my bank is full of ascended chests I don’t need (armor) dropped over the years and not getting any more chests for ages (can’t even remember how long since my last drop).
tin foil hat on I wonder if there is some kind of check on your unused chests that make them drop less.

Well…
Statistically speaking…
For those people as me, who run the 3 Daily Fractals (T4) every day if we are in game, 2-3 weeks without ascended chests is not a rare thing.

Illconceived Was Na.9781

60 fracts without an ascended drop happens around 2-3 times per 10,000 T4 runs. So not only is your luck bad, it’s not even as bad as you fear; it can be worse.

Well, in 2 months you do 3×60 fractals, that means 180 fractals. If you count only the Master and Expert chests as candidates to drop ascendant armor/weapon, you have here a ZERO result from 360 chests. Taking into consideration the Adept and Initiate chests, you have here a big and fat ZERO from 720 chests.

Let’s see what others dropped:

Erick Alastor.3917

Same, my bank is full of ascended chests I don’t need (armor) dropped over the years and not getting any more chests for ages (can’t even remember how long since my last drop)

That means he dropped ascendant chests in the fractals (once upon a time) but now he drops nothing also.

Leon de Damasco.8105

For those people as me, who run the 3 Daily Fractals (T4) every day if we are in game, 2-3 weeks without ascended chests is not a rare thing.

If 3 weeks is not a rare thing, I can assume that you encountered the situation (even rarely) when you dropped nothing in 4, 5 or even 6 weeks. Close to the OP.

I dropped a chest of weapons in May. After the patch containing ANet’s statement that the drop in fractals has been buffed I dropped no other chest. This is one of the main reasons I only do the really fast fractals without bothering with any fractal needing too much effort or time to complete.

The fact is that ANet completely nerfed the drop of ascendant chests in fractals (you can consult the data on the internet (KING I think)
But also is a fact that even if this aspect is (somehow) accepted, some players insists that using the “binomial distribution” or other mathematics the chances of dropping ascendant chests in fact RAISED.

Unnfortunately not everybody in this game has a such high training in mathematics – this can be the reason the “binomial distribution” hates us.
It seems that the only chance to get some ascendant chest drops from fractals is to start to learn mathematics – an MBA may guarantee a drop in every run.

Hi Cristalyan.
Sorry but, or you have the maths wrong or you miss what the OP stated:
OP was been doing fractals for 60 days, by the time of the post, without chest, but you are missing the part where that person said: an average a little over 1 fractal per day.

That is why Illconceived said 60 Fractals and I said the 3 Daily Fractals (T4) every day, for 2-3 weeks (3*14 or 3*21) what means 48-63 fractals.

Have fun!

RNG clusters really badly.

Sooner or later you’ll get like 5 in a single week.

a bit off topic but killing tequatl for 3 years and still no tequatl’s hoard,
RNGesus is harsh sometimes

Before the Jul 26th or whatever it was, when the Chaos Fractal got added, I was getting 1-6 ascended chests a week (on average) for the previous 3 years of running fractals. I stopped doing fractals for awhile and just recently (about 3-4 weeks ago) started doing them again and haven’t gotten one ascended chest since I started back on fractals. RNG is RNG I guess.

Lemme put it in prespective… In that same time I haven’t gotten an ascended chest from T4 fractals, I’ve pulled 2 precursors from Zommoros’s bung hole.

Cristalyan.5728:

The fact is that ANet completely nerfed the drop of ascendant chests in fractals (you can consult the data on the internet (KING I think)

That’s absolutely untrue and in particular, it’s not supported by [KING]’s data. The chance of getting ascended gear for doing the daily 3 fractals far exceeds that which dropped for doing the daily chain of fractals in the past.

Cristalyan.5728:

But also is a fact that even if this aspect is (somehow) accepted, some players insists that using the “binomial distribution” or other mathematics the chances of dropping ascendant chests in fact RAISED.

Unnfortunately not everybody in this game has a such high training in mathematics – this can be the reason the “binomial distribution” hates us.
It seems that the only chance to get some ascendant chest drops from fractals is to start to learn mathematics – an MBA may guarantee a drop in every run.

Odds don’t care if someone has math skills or not. “Binomial” is just a fancy way of saying you have two outcomes, heads or tails.

What tells us the odds are better is that there’s data (from sources such as [KING]) that compare how many ascended drops people got before and after and these days, it’s a greater number.

The only thing that was lowered as the drop rate from the chest called “Master’s” and That’s meaningless because the old Master’s chest and the new one aren’t comparable:

• You get four chests now for doing one T4 fractal and 12 from doing all three dailies.
• You used to get just the master’s chest for doing the high-scale fractal, using the old system.

In other words, the contents are completely different (despite the name) and today, the chest is one of several you get for doing a single fractal.

The short story is that

• The ascended weapon|armor drop rate from fractals is higher today than pre-HoT.
• All the data collected so far is consistent with that drop rate remaining the same, within the ability of the data to estimate that rate.

It’s just bad luck to complete 60 T4 fracts without an ascended drop.

Finally! Ascended chest on my 3rd daily frac on the 67th day.

Osu.6307:

Finally! Ascended chest on my 3rd daily frac on the 67th day.

Awesome! Thanks for letting us know (and may the rest of your drops this year be better than average).

Osu.6307:

Finally! Ascended chest on my 3rd daily frac on the 67th day.

give me some luck bro cause i do all tier 3 fractals every day for a while now and nothing not even rings

On the other side of the RNG scale I was on a 3 day streak for asecended weapons, didn’t get one the 4th day, but then got a fourth box on the 5th day.

…I think I may have siphoned your RNG.

My frac RNG is still crap, but anet made up for it by giving me a Phospholuminescent Infusion in a ToT bag. Selling for 1850g on the TP. Think I’ll leave that in my bank for a while.

Osu.6307:

My frac RNG is still crap, but anet made up for it by giving me a Phospholuminescent Infusion in a ToT bag. Selling for 1850g on the TP. Think I’ll leave that in my bank for a while.

Super Gz! I’d take a PhospInfusion over an ascended weapon or three — that’s a trade off I can easily live with.

Got half a bank tab of chests just in the last 7 days. :/

I don’t think I’ve gotten an ascended Chest of Coats yet since the April patch. That’s over 6 months. So I feel your pain. Although I did get some other chests in that time.

I have not gotten any chest ever at T4……so, stop whining…….I should be the one actually complaining about not getting a chests ever….all my ascended I actually have to craft myself………

Make sure you get your loot level to 100. All I can really say besides…. Hope?
:/