Guild Wars 2

Title says it all

Yes if you have keys that you earned from daily.

No if you don’t.

I have seen a lot of people either asking on the forums or posting in LA on whether to sell the encryptions on the TP or open them with Keys purchased from the Vender in the Mistlock Observatory. Current Wisdom is that you should open the encryptions with your daily keys and sell all extra encryptions on the Tp. That is completely false. It depends on what type of key you are using to open the encryption.

There are 5 different types of keys: Ones from Dailies, Deeply discounted keys bought from a vendor for 20silver, discounted keys bought for 25s, regularly priced keys bought for 30s, and keys from converting stabilizing matrices. For the purposes of this analysis, I will ignore any fractal relic cost, assume that the account bound recipes or items gain the player no money, assume that keys from stabilizing matrices cost the same as those from regularly priced keys, assume today’s prices on the tp and current fractal research listed on this reddit and the wiki is reasonably accurate.

The first step is calculating how much money you are expected to gain from opening a box. Current Research shows you gain 34s54b (or 34 silver 54 bronze) on average from the venderable trash in a box. In addition, you can put another 2s28b on top from the +1 agony infusions, t5 mats, and other sellable items you get from opening the encryption, the total average value contained in a box is 36s81b. In addition, you have a 10% chance when you open a Cracked Fractal Encryption (here after referred to as a chest) of getting an additional fractal key.

The main question is at what tp price it is more profitable to sell the encryptions than open them. I will consider the different cases of daily keys (free), deeply discounted keys (20s per), discounted keys (25s per), and regularly priced keys (30s per) based only on the venderable trash dropped on average trash plus the assumed average value of +1 Agony Infusions, t5 mats, and other sellable items.

Daily keys: On average, you will make 36s81b off these keys as they cost you nothing. Including the Tp tax of 15% (5% listing fee and 10% selling fee), the encryptions would need to be selling for at least 48s12b (which equals 45s/(.85*.9)=Sell Price/(Tax*chance at an extra Key)) on the tp for it to be worth selling the encryptions over what you would make by just opening the boxes with a key.

Deeply Discounted Keys: On average, you will make 16s81b by opening encryptions with deeply discounted keys. Similarly to the daily keys, the encryptions would have to be selling for over 21s98b for it to be more profitable to list the encryptions on the TP than opening them with deeply discounted keys.

Discounted Keys: On average, you will make 11s81b by opening encryptions with discounted keys. Similarly to the daily keys, the encryptions would have to be selling for over 15s44b for it to be more profitable to list then encryptions on the TP than opening them with discounted keys.

Regularly Priced Keys: On average, you will make 6s81b by opening encryptions with discounted keys. Similarly to the daily keys, the encryptions would have to be selling for over 8s91b for it to be more profitable to list the encryptions on the TP than opening them with discounted keys.

So in conclusion, it is:
1) Always more profitable to use the keys earned from the dailies to open your encryptions.
2) When using deeply discounted keys, it depends on a large number of factors including the current price of fractal encryptions, cost of the +1 agony infusions, cost of the t5 mats, and Lady Luck. Right now, encryptions are selling for 21s56b and being bought for 19s53b, so it would be marginally worth it to open the keys rather than sell them on the tp.
3) When using discounted Keys and regularly priced keys, it is better to just sell the encryptions unless the encryptions crater below 15s on the tp.
My personal habit is to buy up all the deeply discounted key each day and once a week go through a f40 farm to gain enough encryptions to use up all my extra keys.

For reference:
Gw2Tp Fractal Encryption
Gw2Wiki Cracked Fractal Encryption Research

DrEckers.2039:

snip

Thank you for your time and research. You got my +1. that was a very helpfull and well done post!

I value fractal relics more than the cheap keys/vendor trash I can exchange them for, so I don’t bother even with the cheap keys, only the dailies. But then, I haven’t sat down and calculated what they might be worth when used for other things (backpieces, 20 slot boxes, +7 infusions, etc).