Guild Wars 2

Does fractal level 50 have a different drop rate on ascended armor/weapon chests compared to fractal 49? I’ve seen sources claiming an approximately 16% drop rate for the level 41 to 50 daily reward chest, yet after 2 weeks of a 49 and a 40 daily I’ve yet to get anything other than rings and empyreal fragments.

Mostly it’s about the instability. You’re simply doing the fractals with least punishing instabilities, which happen to be multiples of 10.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18IHVJao5j85KOp6lBTOgO8qs4VYD3Xty-jKPZo8o-Q4/pubhtml

Drop rate differences are abysmally low.

There’s also pretty rare chance of getting weapon/armor chests, so doing 2 weeks and not getting any chests is very common and to be expected.

fractal 50 drops the tonic other than that not really anything else the drops rate is near enough the same

Actually you can get a tonic on any scale above 40, so 41-50. But as stated before, its usual that ppl will do a 50 over a 49 because of the instability.

It you are not interested on the tonic do a 49 instead, way faster(especially pugging).

Always 50 over 49 especially when pugging. Higher AR requirement means ppl are more likely to have proper gear that matches my LFG thus making runs easier and faster not to mention that the instability doesn’t punish for using the basic combat mechanics and is just a simple gearcheck.

Also the rewards are exactly the same for everything between 41-50, tonic included.

Purple Miku.7032:

Drop rate differences are abysmally low.

There’s also pretty rare chance of getting weapon/armor chests, so doing 2 weeks and not getting any chests is very common and to be expected.

What? Seriously? It’s extremely abnormal for me to go a week with zero ascended chest drops from 50s. I usually get 1-3 chests a week from 50s even more if you factor in 30s and 40s. I get fractal weapons and boxes at least 1/3 of the time, and rings or nothing 2/3 of the time. Take last night as an example. I did my regular 50 and got a fractal mace. Right after did my 40 and got the fractal longbow. Sadly already had both… Only missing the harpoon gun to complete the fractal weapon collection.

TheFantasticGman.9451:

Purple Miku.7032:

Drop rate differences are abysmally low.

There’s also pretty rare chance of getting weapon/armor chests, so doing 2 weeks and not getting any chests is very common and to be expected.

What? Seriously? It’s extremely abnormal for me to go a week with zero ascended chest drops from 50s. I usually get 1-3 chests a week from 50s even more if you factor in 30s and 40s. I get fractal weapons and boxes at least 1/3 of the time, and rings or nothing 2/3 of the time. Take last night as an example. I did my regular 50 and got a fractal mace. Right after did my 40 and got the fractal longbow. Sadly already had both… Only missing the harpoon gun to complete the fractal weapon collection.

Your are one lucky kitten and i hate you(not really, just very jellous).

TheFantasticGman.9451:

Purple Miku.7032:

Drop rate differences are abysmally low.

There’s also pretty rare chance of getting weapon/armor chests, so doing 2 weeks and not getting any chests is very common and to be expected.

What? Seriously? It’s extremely abnormal for me to go a week with zero ascended chest drops from 50s. I usually get 1-3 chests a week from 50s even more if you factor in 30s and 40s. I get fractal weapons and boxes at least 1/3 of the time, and rings or nothing 2/3 of the time. Take last night as an example. I did my regular 50 and got a fractal mace. Right after did my 40 and got the fractal longbow. Sadly already had both… Only missing the harpoon gun to complete the fractal weapon collection.

Aren’t the odds from those that keep records roughly one a week? Consider yourself a lucky person With the odds as they are 1 a month isn’t that rare and shouldn’t be getting upset till you hit that point IMO.

Going by our drops spreadsheet, the combined ascended chest rate for 50s is ~16.43%. So unless my math is wrong, the chances of not getting an ascended chest in a week of 50s is (1 – .1643)^7, or ~28.5%.

Prisoner.2419:

Going by our drops spreadsheet, the combined ascended chest rate for 50s is ~16.43%. So unless my math is wrong, the chances of not getting an ascended chest in a week of 50s is (1 – .1643)^7, or ~28.5%.

It’s been so long since I did statistics, I was just thinking if its’ ~1/7 chance, then you should expect one every 7 days or so. Is it really only 28.5% chance of getting one in 7 days? just doesn’t seem intuitive, but that’s statistics!

TheFantasticGman.9451:

Purple Miku.7032:

Drop rate differences are abysmally low.

There’s also pretty rare chance of getting weapon/armor chests, so doing 2 weeks and not getting any chests is very common and to be expected.

What? Seriously? It’s extremely abnormal for me to go a week with zero ascended chest drops from 50s. I usually get 1-3 chests a week from 50s even more if you factor in 30s and 40s. I get fractal weapons and boxes at least 1/3 of the time, and rings or nothing 2/3 of the time. Take last night as an example. I did my regular 50 and got a fractal mace. Right after did my 40 and got the fractal longbow. Sadly already had both… Only missing the harpoon gun to complete the fractal weapon collection.

My rng is all over the place. One week I can get 2+ skins, couple of armor/weapon zojja chests, fractal tonic, 10 gold+ exotics and then nothing for months.

Jerus.4350:

Prisoner.2419:

Going by our drops spreadsheet, the combined ascended chest rate for 50s is ~16.43%. So unless my math is wrong, the chances of not getting an ascended chest in a week of 50s is (1 – .1643)^7, or ~28.5%.

It’s been so long since I did statistics, I was just thinking if its’ ~1/7 chance, then you should expect one every 7 days or so. Is it really only 28.5% chance of getting one in 7 days? just doesn’t seem intuitive, but that’s statistics!

28.5% chance to not get one in a week of 50s. Would be ~71.5% chance of getting at least one asc chest per full week, unless I’m remembering this math stuff wrong. That’s just doing 50s though, doing 30s/40s as well would lead to higher numbers.

Ahh kk, thanks, like I said it’s been a good 10 years since I really touched any of the finer points of statistics, and it’s kitten hard to look up formulas when you don’t remember the terminology. That certainly sounds more like it. Sorry for misreading that.

Personally I’ve actually seen better rewards at 30 than at 50 >.< I should do them more but it’d probably change, just seems everytime I bother to do a 30 I get something of value.

Jerus.4350:

Prisoner.2419:

Going by our drops spreadsheet, the combined ascended chest rate for 50s is ~16.43%. So unless my math is wrong, the chances of not getting an ascended chest in a week of 50s is (1 – .1643)^7, or ~28.5%.

It’s been so long since I did statistics, I was just thinking if its’ ~1/7 chance, then you should expect one every 7 days or so. Is it really only 28.5% chance of getting one in 7 days? just doesn’t seem intuitive, but that’s statistics!

.84 (chance of NOT getting a chest from 41-50) to the 7th power is .295 or a rougly 30% chance of not getting an ascended chest in a week.

.84 * .91 (chance of not getting a chest from 31-40) is .7644 (chance of not getting a chest if you run a 49 and a 40). .7644^7 = .1525 or a 15.3% chance of not getting an ascended chest in a week of 49s and 40s.

I’ve been running for 12 days now which has only a 4% chance of not getting an ascended chest after 12 days.

Which is why I was starting to think maybe I needed to do 50 instead since maybe the 16% drop rate I saw was really for 50 and not 49.

50’s are more fun anyways it makes Jade Maw somewhat entertaining at the very least.

Jerus.4350:

50’s are more fun anyways it makes Jade Maw somewhat entertaining at the very least.

I don’t consider clearing a horde of trash very entertaining, this whole encounter is a disappointment due to it not even having a boss fight. So when I get it on any level other than 50 I feel thankful because it means I can semi-AFK it without costing the group anything.

Purple Miku.7032:

Jerus.4350:

50’s are more fun anyways it makes Jade Maw somewhat entertaining at the very least.

I don’t consider clearing a horde of trash very entertaining, this whole encounter is a disappointment due to it not even having a boss fight. So when I get it on any level other than 50 I feel thankful because it means I can semi-AFK it without costing the group anything.

Yeah /shrug, lets be honest the whole game is mainly just keeping you busy. Sure it’s not as fun as Mai or Imbued Shaman, but I hate when the game has me wanting to tab out, I never come back in time.

Jerus.4350:

Prisoner.2419:

Going by our drops spreadsheet, the combined ascended chest rate for 50s is ~16.43%. So unless my math is wrong, the chances of not getting an ascended chest in a week of 50s is (1 – .1643)^7, or ~28.5%.

It’s been so long since I did statistics, I was just thinking if its’ ~1/7 chance, then you should expect one every 7 days or so. Is it really only 28.5% chance of getting one in 7 days? just doesn’t seem intuitive, but that’s statistics!

You can expect once a week overall. However, the chance of not getting one in any particular week is as was listed.

The difference is due to the fact that the one a week on average counts the possibility of getting more than one each week as sufficient for multiple weeks.

Doesn’t the fact that it’s RNG completely negate anything meaningful that would otherwise be derived from your statistics? IE: lets say that there is a hard 16% chance that you get a drop. You can roll on that chance a billion times, however, your chance will always be 16%. Or maybe im wrong, which in retrospect is probably more likely… lol

BoogerSammich.7189:

Doesn’t the fact that it’s RNG completely negate anything meaningful that would otherwise be derived from your statistics? IE: lets say that there is a hard 16% chance that you get a drop. You can roll on that chance a billion times, however, your chance will always be 16%. Or maybe im wrong, which in retrospect is probably more likely… lol

Your chances of getting something and the probability that you’ll get something over a period of time are two different things.

The probability that it’ll land on red 3 times in a row during roulette doesn’t change that the roll is still the same chance/odds each roll… many gamblers have been tricked by probability.

Fractal 50 isn’t really worth it because it’s the same reward tier but a higher difficulty tier than 49. Even though the mistlock instability in 50 isn’t an issue if you have 70AR, the enemies in scale 50 have been buffed (in some cases quite noticeably) from their scale 49 counterparts. This is why 49 runs typically go faster and easier than 50.

BoogerSammich.7189:

Doesn’t the fact that it’s RNG completely negate anything meaningful that would otherwise be derived from your statistics? IE: lets say that there is a hard 16% chance that you get a drop. You can roll on that chance a billion times, however, your chance will always be 16%. Or maybe im wrong, which in retrospect is probably more likely… lol

You’re correct when assuming the statistics of the future roll. If you have a 6 sided die then the chances of rolling a 4 in an individual roll are 1 in 6 no matter what the past rolls are. So if you rolled 10 3s in a row then the odds of a 4 on your next roll are still 1 in 6, just like my odds of an ascended chest drop on my next 49 run are ~16%.

However what we’re saying is the odds of a chest over a period of time. So to use the dice analogy, you could roll the dice 10 times without getting a 4, and then figure the odds on rolling 10 times without a 4. You would get 5/6 (the odds of not rolling a 4) to the power of 10.

TheRandomGuy.7246:

TheFantasticGman.9451:

Purple Miku.7032:

Drop rate differences are abysmally low.

There’s also pretty rare chance of getting weapon/armor chests, so doing 2 weeks and not getting any chests is very common and to be expected.

What? Seriously? It’s extremely abnormal for me to go a week with zero ascended chest drops from 50s. I usually get 1-3 chests a week from 50s even more if you factor in 30s and 40s. I get fractal weapons and boxes at least 1/3 of the time, and rings or nothing 2/3 of the time. Take last night as an example. I did my regular 50 and got a fractal mace. Right after did my 40 and got the fractal longbow. Sadly already had both… Only missing the harpoon gun to complete the fractal weapon collection.

My rng is all over the place. One week I can get 2+ skins, couple of armor/weapon zojja chests, fractal tonic, 10 gold+ exotics and then nothing for months.

Aye, mine fluctuates around as well, but it’s almost guaranteed out of the 7 runs at 50 I will get at least one chest a week. Lately though (past 3 weeks) I’ve been getting more fractal skins than chests, which sucks because I want the chests. Lemme put it this way, I’ve only crafted two sets of ascended because they drop so much in fractals I’ve stopped making them.