Guild Wars 2

So after the so-called “improved” loot in fractals, nothing has really changed. We get a bit more coin, that’s it.

I’ve been doing 3x 50+ fractals a day for the chest, and you know what I’ve gotten in the days since the “improvement” ? 1x Stabilizing Matrix each day, and 0, yes ZERO ascended chests/weapons!!!

Before HoT, I used to do lv50 daily. I didn’t get an ascended chest or weapon often, but I got enough in a month to have a 6/6 armor set on an alt (with reforging the stats in the MF ofc).

What I’m trying to say is, there’s a hugely noticeable difference in loot drops since the release of HoT. Not only have you completely nerfed the trash mobs loot, but the actual rewards as well. Given that dungeons are also no longer an effective income source, what does this leave us? Forced to participate in pre-organised time-gated events in the new zones? You’re taking away the choices people used to enjoy before HoT and forcing us to do specific things just to earn some coin! There’ll always be a grind element to the game, but when you take away the choices of WHAT you grind, then the game becomes tedious, dull, boring, just like it is now!

Thermanova fractal, ONLY the ice wolf mobs drop any loot. That’s like 2 mobs out of 15. So we waste time killing all these mobs, for what? Absolutely nothing! This was obviously removed to prevent people ‘farming’ mastery experience, but after you anounced that you wanted Fractals to actually be a suitable means to get said experience, you never changed these mobs back to granting exp/loot! You will happily allow people to farm CoF dungeon for exp, why nerf loot and exp on fractal trash too?

I think the loot on the 50+ daily chest needs a SERIOUS overhaul! If you’re going to give a useless Stabilizing Matrix as a reward, make it 10 or 25. If you’re going to give me an Ascended salvage kit, don’t be stingy and have only 1 use/charge on it, make it 25!! Honestly, the lower level loot is actually better, which is completely backwards!

Lastly, the Fractal Encryption boxes. At least the contents award some decent coin, but then the keys don’t drop! I’m getting 11-12 boxes a day, and no more than 4 keys! This means I’m wasting gold to BUY the keys I need, which therefor impacts how much I’m rewarded. It was a very ingenious way of almost improving the loot, but not quite enough.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18IHVJao5j85KOp6lBTOgO8qs4VYD3Xty-jKPZo8o-Q4/pubhtml

Compare the current tab to the pre 23/10/2015 tab.

Ascended armor chest was 11.7% and now 11.6%
Ascended weapons chest was 4.2% and now 3.3%

Keep in mind that it’s way faster to do 3 level 51+ than to do a fractal 50 back then.

Nobody care that you are unlucky. That’s just that. You are unlucky. Too bad for you. The loot in fractal is about the same as it used to be and we get a lot more gold. True enough we used to have decent drop in fractal 30 and 20, while now drops are only good in fractal 51+. That’s another story.

You must be exaggerating or have exceptionally bad luck. I make 10g+ from doing Fractal Champion / Veteran dailies, and I get about 1 ascended chest a week on average. This isn’t even counting the numerous exotics/rares/T6 I pick up along the way, which easily bring the total to over 15g on average.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18IHVJao5j85KOp6lBTOgO8qs4VYD3Xty-jKPZo8o-Q4/pubhtml

Compare the current tab to the pre 23/10/2015 tab.

Ascended armor chest was 11.7% and now 11.6%
Ascended weapons chest was 4.2% and now 3.3%

Keep in mind that it’s way faster to do 3 level 51+ than to do a fractal 50 back then.

Nobody care that you are unlucky. That’s just that. You are unlucky. Too bad for you. The loot in fractal is about the same as it used to be and we get a lot more gold. True enough we used to have decent drop in fractal 30 and 20, while now drops are only good in fractal 51+. That’s another story.

As far as the encryption goes. You get 26 silver of PROFIT while buying your first 30 keys. The reward is very good while buying the keys so it’s good there. You should ALWAYS buy your first 30 keys per day. It’s free money.

Rentapest.6503:

So after the so-called “improved” loot in fractals, nothing has really changed. We get a bit more coin, that’s it.

I’ve been doing 3x 50+ fractals a day for the chest, and you know what I’ve gotten in the days since the “improvement” ? 1x Stabilizing Matrix each day, and 0, yes ZERO ascended chests/weapons!!!

Before HoT, I used to do lv50 daily. I didn’t get an ascended chest or weapon often, but I got enough in a month to have a 6/6 armor set on an alt (with reforging the stats in the MF ofc).

What I’m trying to say is, there’s a hugely noticeable difference in loot drops since the release of HoT. Not only have you completely nerfed the trash mobs loot, but the actual rewards as well. Given that dungeons are also no longer an effective income source, what does this leave us? Forced to participate in pre-organised time-gated events in the new zones? You’re taking away the choices people used to enjoy before HoT and forcing us to do specific things just to earn some coin! There’ll always be a grind element to the game, but when you take away the choices of WHAT you grind, then the game becomes tedious, dull, boring, just like it is now!

Thermanova fractal, ONLY the ice wolf mobs drop any loot. That’s like 2 mobs out of 15. So we waste time killing all these mobs, for what? Absolutely nothing! This was obviously removed to prevent people ‘farming’ mastery experience, but after you anounced that you wanted Fractals to actually be a suitable means to get said experience, you never changed these mobs back to granting exp/loot! You will happily allow people to farm CoF dungeon for exp, why nerf loot and exp on fractal trash too?

I think the loot on the 50+ daily chest needs a SERIOUS overhaul! If you’re going to give a useless Stabilizing Matrix as a reward, make it 10 or 25. If you’re going to give me an Ascended salvage kit, don’t be stingy and have only 1 use/charge on it, make it 25!! Honestly, the lower level loot is actually better, which is completely backwards!

Lastly, the Fractal Encryption boxes. At least the contents award some decent coin, but then the keys don’t drop! I’m getting 11-12 boxes a day, and no more than 4 keys! This means I’m wasting gold to BUY the keys I need, which therefor impacts how much I’m rewarded. It was a very ingenious way of almost improving the loot, but not quite enough.

The entire designs of loot and “rewards” and crafting and grind… game wide, is so players buy gems and convert to gold period. That is zero mystery and it’s been this way since launch.

I like the design of being able to buy my gold so I’m not complaining, I’m just telling you how it is.

Several other people have said this, but you’re just experiencing high variance due to an extremely small sample size. For example:

I’ve been playing GW2 for 3 years and I, quite literally, have never had an ascended chest (weapon or armor box) drop for me from any content – not just fractals. One of my friends who I run daily fractals with everyday has opened at least one if not more armor box from his 51+ chest per week. It’s just bad RNG on my part, and that’s unfortunately just how things work.

In terms of gold though, it is 100% intended that you will have to buy extra keys as those are not an RNG drop and you will 100% make a profit after just a few days of opening all of your encryptions. Like people said, I make about 10g a day running fractals which is about the average. (If you’re running all of your fractal dailies, you should also be getting over 20 encryptions a day, not just 10-11…)

Rentapest.6503:

no more than 4 keys!

Either you are lying or you aren’t doing all dailies!

The champ chest alone will result in 3 keys
http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Champion_Chest_of_the_Mists

Then you also have 2 chests of these – 2 × 1 key = 2 keys
http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Chest_of_the_Mists_%28rare%29

Veteran chest of the Mists – 2 keys:
https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Veteran_Chest_of_the_Mists

Adept chest of the Mists – 1 key:
http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Adept_Chest_of_the_Mists

8 Keys, not counting keys dropping out of encryptions, not counting stabilizing matrices you can convert into keys nor counting useless ring you want to salvage also giving stabiliziing matrices. And as you can read above: Buy the first 30 keys daily for free.

Seriously, almost all posters before already mentioned you were exaggerating and I have to agree with them. Fractals are very good money nowadays.

Another 50+ fractal daily, another single Stabilizing Matrix as reward. Sigh…

Rentapest.6503:

Another 50+ fractal daily, another single Stabilizing Matrix as reward. Sigh…

Still lying!

Rentapest.6503:

Another 50+ fractal daily, another single Stabilizing Matrix as reward. Sigh…

Double-click to open.
Contains a Pristine Fractal Relic, 10 +1 Agony Infusions, a Tome of Knowledge, 3 Fractal Encryption Keys, and a Stabilizing Matrix.

- http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Champion_Chest_of_the_Mists

Rentapest.6503:

Immediately after the patch, I started doing more fractals and the 50+ ones too.

From the 3/3 daily lv50+ chest, I got an ascended salvage kit with one, yet ONE single charge on it! No rings, no exotics, just a couple rares from the runs, blues, greens and the useless kit!

The next day, I got a single Stabilizing Matrix (ascended crafting material that are SO common and easy to get).

After two days in a row of really bad loot, I stopped doing the 50+ fractals. Today, I got my chest, went to open it in my inventory, and it wasn’t there!! My bags were not cluttered (because you don’t get much loot in fractals anymore) so it’s not like I couldn’t see it! I salvaged the few items that were there, double checked, tripple checked, nope … no chest!!

Seriously…

From another thread. You seem to have a notion of either:

- exagerating
- overlooking parts of your loot
- being affected by severe game bugs no one else has mentioned on the forums (or reddit) so far

Part of the problem is people believing the above linked data-set about a 12% drop rate for ascended chests is accurate without seeing any methodology or manner of data collection.

Let me explain some of the reasons I find it questionable, just based on seeing it.

1) it was a self reporting system. self reporting systems are historically bad because they always skew towards the favorable. Example why, post that you are taking a survey of people to figure out the drop rates of ascended chest. While you will get reports of people that dont get any, most people that dont get them, wont report anything as they will have “nothing to report”, were as people that did get a chest are more likely to report because they do have “something to report”. So the data is already skewed.

2) We dont have a control group data set of the same people from before the HoT expansion to compare it to. For example, as I had stated in an earlier post, before the HoT expansion I would do a L50 fractals 5-6 times a week with members of my guild. There was a group of 3 that did it every night and other 2 slots would be from a pool of 6-7 other guildies. With this group of people, I had been running fractals 5-6 times a week for well over a year. Most night we would get 1-2 chests between us, sometimes 3. Over the course of a week I would say 7-9 chests dropping was normal. Were they evenly spread out across the all of us? no. There were certainly people that seemed to have better luck than others. But I in general have horrid drops throughout the entire rest of the game would still average an ascended chest a week. Now, I think we are 5 months into HoT, I have gotten 2 chests. 1 guildmate that has gotten 3 in just the past month of so, 1 other guildmate that just recently got his 2nd. 2 of our regular group have gotten 1 and the rest havent gotten any. These are people that I can say I have seen our drop rates before HoT and I can say I have seen them since HoT. Why? Because they I was there when the fractals were completed. Is it a large sample size of people? No, but it is a sample size of people where I can compare both a Before and After HoT.

3) Any good study, survey, poll, is worthless if its results are not repeatable. We dont have the needed info to even try to repeat the results of the previously posted results.

As for the entire game wide RNG, that crap is BS, and I dont care what ANET says. It has become a running joke with how many precursors 2 of my guildmates get in a given month (and worth noting, 1 of them has an MF of less than 150). Where as most people I know have never gotten 1 as a drop, including myself in the 3+ years Ive been playing.

But people (aside from just myself and guildmates) have knowledge of what their before HoT drop rate was in fractals and know what there post HoT drop rate is like. And a lot of us can see a noticeable decrease in loot. And the increased gold rate doesn’t come anywhere near balancing out the cost of crafting ascended armor or weapons…

I did all three difficulties the other day and got one gold fractal weapon, one fractal weapon, two ascended rings and 3 exotics, also 2 vials of blabla.

I recently also got one zojja weapon crate and one zojja armor piece box. Also I make about 10-15g with every difficulty done. I don’t call this crap loot. People just kittening complain everytime. They even would complain if you get 10 legendaries per killed mob.

ProtoGunner.4953:

I did all three difficulties the other day and got one gold fractal weapon, one fractal weapon, two ascended rings and 3 exotics, also 2 vials of blabla.

I recently also got one zojja weapon crate and one zojja armor piece box. Also I make about 10-15g with every difficulty done. I don’t call this crap loot. People just kittening complain everytime. They even would complain if you get 10 legendaries per killed mob.

I think you are a very lucky person or anet really needs to make clear whatbis affected by mf and what is not or tell us how or personel rng base is calculated cause the different nembers i see on this forum is either awefull or 10-12% for the ascended. You getting all that from 1 day means either you are super lucky or accounts base droprate is very different.
Yes i know some kittennis gonna white knight me now. And that anet says it’s the same for evry account but i find it hard to believe. There are to many ghost storys about abnormally high droprates to just be ghost story’s

MrTree.4890:

There are to many ghost storys about abnormally high droprates to just be ghost story’s

The main thing is: stories

People exaggerating, people are lying, people are not realizing stuff (choose one for the user Rentapest.6503 in this thread).
In the end, it is just fricking rng, compare it to a usual lotto game where you don’t want to accept that some guys are winning the pot two times while you will never ever get a decent amount of cash.
Get over it or uninstall. There are no luck accounts.

Takina.1739:

Part of the problem is people believing the above linked data-set about a 12% drop rate for ascended chests is accurate without seeing any methodology or manner of data collection.

Let me explain some of the reasons I find it questionable, just based on seeing it.

1) it was a self reporting system. self reporting systems are historically bad because they always skew towards the favorable. Example why, post that you are taking a survey of people to figure out the drop rates of ascended chest. While you will get reports of people that dont get any, most people that dont get them, wont report anything as they will have “nothing to report”, were as people that did get a chest are more likely to report because they do have “something to report”. So the data is already skewed.

2) We dont have a control group data set of the same people from before the HoT expansion to compare it to. For example, as I had stated in an earlier post, before the HoT expansion I would do a L50 fractals 5-6 times a week with members of my guild. There was a group of 3 that did it every night and other 2 slots would be from a pool of 6-7 other guildies. With this group of people, I had been running fractals 5-6 times a week for well over a year. Most night we would get 1-2 chests between us, sometimes 3. Over the course of a week I would say 7-9 chests dropping was normal. Were they evenly spread out across the all of us? no. There were certainly people that seemed to have better luck than others. But I in general have horrid drops throughout the entire rest of the game would still average an ascended chest a week. Now, I think we are 5 months into HoT, I have gotten 2 chests. 1 guildmate that has gotten 3 in just the past month of so, 1 other guildmate that just recently got his 2nd. 2 of our regular group have gotten 1 and the rest havent gotten any. These are people that I can say I have seen our drop rates before HoT and I can say I have seen them since HoT. Why? Because they I was there when the fractals were completed. Is it a large sample size of people? No, but it is a sample size of people where I can compare both a Before and After HoT.

3) Any good study, survey, poll, is worthless if its results are not repeatable. We dont have the needed info to even try to repeat the results of the previously posted results.

As for the entire game wide RNG, that crap is BS, and I dont care what ANET says. It has become a running joke with how many precursors 2 of my guildmates get in a given month (and worth noting, 1 of them has an MF of less than 150). Where as most people I know have never gotten 1 as a drop, including myself in the 3+ years Ive been playing.

But people (aside from just myself and guildmates) have knowledge of what their before HoT drop rate was in fractals and know what there post HoT drop rate is like. And a lot of us can see a noticeable decrease in loot. And the increased gold rate doesn’t come anywhere near balancing out the cost of crafting ascended armor or weapons…

Ok, let me correct some of the points you just made so we can all have an accurate picture of what statistics tells us when it comes to fractals loot.

1. This is a mostly valid point. Self-reported surveys are inherently flawed, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the actual drop rate of ascended boxes is lower than what is reported by those spreadsheet. However, I don’t think the data is nearly as biased as you are making it out to be. A lot of the data comes from people who saved up all of their 51+ chests for a month or two before the fractals fix patch and reported their findings in bulk, and intended to report their data regardless of their drops. While it’s definitely possible that there were some cases of people getting one drop and reporting only one box, I don’t feel that bad about making the assumption that the data is fairly representative of a non-biased model. There comes a point where the sample size is large enough that if people are reporting most of their chests, we’ll have a fairly accurate picture. I highly doubt we’re seeing a reported drop rate of about 10% if the reality is about a 0.1% drop rate. Remember that people love to complain (report data?) about not getting drops too.

2. There is absolutely no reason why we would need data from before HoT in order to get an accurate picture of the current drop rates. In fact, conflating current data with data from before the change can only harm our accuracy in finding the current rate. We can obviously compare data from before HoT and from after HoT to see how the drop rate has changed, but there’s no reason we need to know the pre-HoT drop rate to determine the current one. You also in this point bring up a lot of anecdotal evidence (which really has no baring on claims we can make about the current rates). The fact of the matter is, even with a group the size you report and data from several months, your sample size isn’t big enough to provide an accurate drop rate. Your memory can also suffer from bias (and definitely does…). Should you feel like the drop rate was higher from before HoT, you are much more likely to remember instances of drops, should you feel like it’s lower, you’re much more likely to forget these. Any argument of statistics that concludes with “this is true because I saw it happen” is inherently flawed and in no way empirical. If you want the true drop rate, we need to look at data from thousands of chest openings which frankly, one group of friends/guild is not going to be able to provide on their own.

3. The concept of “repeating” this study doesn’t really make any sense. This wasn’t a study. It’s the reporting of data which is generated by a piece of code. There certainly is an empirically correct number that we are trying to find by estimating it with a sub-sample of chest openings (ArenaNet knows these numbers but does not provide them to the players). When you double click a chest, there are zero other variables that may be conflating the data, as opposed to in a scientific study in which something like temperature, light, etc (whatever it is….) could effect the results. Repeat-ability ensures that we are testing the correct variable under the same set of conditions. When it comes to code, this is ensured automatically (baring any bugs or changes to the code, of course – though if we’re assuming these exist, we might as well just give up trying to find the answer).

Finally as to your last, unnumbered points, what you’re experiencing is the high variance which comes with low drop rates. There are stories about people putting 20 rares in the MF and getting 3 precursors, and stories about people putting 1.5k rares in the MF and getting 0. This is expected. No one person can “have knowledge of what their before HoT drop rate was in fractals and know what there post HoT drop rate is like”. Their sample size is simply just too small.

Takina.1739:

“We dont have a control group data set of the same people from before the HoT expansion to compare it to.”

Yes, we have! There is data of KING before HoT and even data from other guilds (SC & LOD). You just have to open your eyes.
Funny thing is, they did these records independently from each other and their data don’t differ very much. The 12% pre-HoT are pretty much solid.

Afaik, KING players are updating their recent runs constantly and we will see how the numbers will change or not. Personally, I doubt that they will change that much and I am convinced your worries, theories and unfounded claims will stay kittening kitten!

ya, I saw those charts. but I want the raw data and methodology used to collect it. How many people and how many runs each. Did they all run every day? can we show they all ran the same number of runs? was it all the data collected at the time the run was completed or at 1 time at the end.

Experiment design, data collection and analysis is what I do. and that single char is worthless to me because when my data doesnt match I cant compare the methods used to figure out why. but I can see difference pre/post HoT to imply there are different and reduced drop rates.

Takina.1739:

ya, I saw those charts. but I want the raw data and methodology used to collect it. How many people and how many runs each. Did they all run every day? can we show they all ran the same number of runs? was it all the data collected at the time the run was completed or at 1 time at the end.

Experiment design, data collection and analysis is what I do. and that single char is worthless to me because when my data doesnt match I cant compare the methods used to figure out why. but I can see difference pre/post HoT to imply there are different and reduced drop rates.

Those guild are kind enough to give use those information for free. If you want more information you can ask them yourself or maybe start your own date collection.

What are you talking about ‘’my data’‘. You mean you keep track of all your drops? Or all your guild drops? Because I guess that a sample of around 30 vs 3000 is kind of relevant if you ask why the date doesn’t match.

ProtoGunner.4953:

I did all three difficulties the other day and got one gold fractal weapon, one fractal weapon, two ascended rings and 3 exotics, also 2 vials of blabla.

I recently also got one zojja weapon crate and one zojja armor piece box. Also I make about 10-15g with every difficulty done. I don’t call this crap loot. People just kittening complain everytime. They even would complain if you get 10 legendaries per killed mob.

I got 10 precursors in 2 days at MF (4 dusk 3 dawn colossus hunter and zap). You just got lucky mate, it does not proove that Anet increased drop rate.

Been doing 51+ dailies everyday since fractal got updated. Only have 1 asc armor box so far ><

Thaddeus.4891:

What are you talking about ‘’my data’‘. You mean you keep track of all your drops? Or all your guild drops? Because I guess that a sample of around 30 vs 3000 is kind of relevant if you ask why the date doesn’t match.

I wasnt keeping track from the release of Fractals, but I can figure out exactly how many chest Ive gotten because I know what I have crafted and Ive never gotten a chest from a champ bag or world boss (other than Teq and that weapon is obvious). I also have a good idea about my guildies since we always run together.

And what we have gotten since HoT’s release? Ya, I know exactly what I have gotten as well as my guildies, because we have been complaining about it for months now. That log I have been keeping since the patch was said to have fixed the drop rates.

Ragnarox.9601:

ProtoGunner.4953:

I did all three difficulties the other day and got one gold fractal weapon, one fractal weapon, two ascended rings and 3 exotics, also 2 vials of blabla.

I recently also got one zojja weapon crate and one zojja armor piece box. Also I make about 10-15g with every difficulty done. I don’t call this crap loot. People just kittening complain everytime. They even would complain if you get 10 legendaries per killed mob.

I got 10 precursors in 2 days at MF (4 dusk 3 dawn colossus hunter and zap). You just got lucky mate, it does not proove that Anet increased drop rate.

Yeah, I was lucky ofc. It’s not even near the normal drop rate. But still, you get your 10-15g out of it and a rather high chance of getting an ascended ring and/or an exotic here and there.

The rewards are still based on RNG and I am afraid you are just unlucky. I myself dropped 2 ascended armor chests yesterday by doing the Veteran and Champion daily.

You get lucky or you just don’t. Anet never confirmed it would be raining ascended chests day in and day out.

Takina.1739:

Thaddeus.4891:

What are you talking about ‘’my data’‘. You mean you keep track of all your drops? Or all your guild drops? Because I guess that a sample of around 30 vs 3000 is kind of relevant if you ask why the date doesn’t match.

I wasnt keeping track from the release of Fractals, but I can figure out exactly how many chest Ive gotten because I know what I have crafted and Ive never gotten a chest from a champ bag or world boss (other than Teq and that weapon is obvious). I also have a good idea about my guildies since we always run together.

And what we have gotten since HoT’s release? Ya, I know exactly what I have gotten as well as my guildies, because we have been complaining about it for months now. That log I have been keeping since the patch was said to have fixed the drop rates.

And you complain about the lack of methodology, and self reporting bias of the KING’s numbers?? WoW, just WoW.

You wanted to know more info about their methodology because it doesn’t compare to your date, which come from ‘’I don’t keep track of it, but I’m know that I only got one and from my friend that kitten about it’’. Ya nice methodology dude. Your data seem legit.

I didnt keep track of 2 years worth, but I can reverse at least my ascended count to determine how many it has been. I cant do that with someone else’s data without additional info. And I do have a record of it since the patch in mid Dec when they said they were changing the loot tables because they were not getting the results they had expected. Also, all their data gives is a flat average over the course of who knows how long, 12% of the total… Thats not very useful. I will assume for the moment that you have no experience with experiment design, data analysis, sample sizes, sampling distribution, sampling error, issues with self reporting, and confirmation bias, but a simple flat 12% doesnt tell me much of anything.

So far I have 4 samples (soon to be 5) with a sample size of 35; this is purely post HoT. If the 12% response is correct then I should be seeing about 4.5 chests per-sample and Im not getting anything close to that yet. Now I need about 5 more weeks (of me collecting all my own data base just on runs I was on to make sure the reported data is accurate) before I could say I what i think the actual drop rate is, but I can say with confidence that it is not remotely close to 12%. And doesnt even take into account how evenly distributed the chests are because if I do see samples with a 4.5 drop rate I then need to see how many different people got them. If they all drop to 1 or 2 people out of 5, and I can consistently see that happen (as I have seen for 3 years now with precursors) then a 12% drop rate is still meaningless.

Dude, stop trying to look intelligent with your college knowledge of science. You have a lot of well educated players here in this special forum and your subliminal tries to shine are ridiculous. Grow up!

Guys. We need data from about 1000 chest openings before we can say anything conclusively. We don’t really need to “design” studies here. The data is written in code. There are no external variables. (We also need people to report all of their openings, hopefully in bulk, rather than just when they remember as “remembering” to report getting a box may be easier than reporting not getting one – or something along those lines.)

Why is this so hard to understand? If collectively, players report openings in bulk of 1000 chests, their average is likely to be fairly accurate. You’re not going to be able to collect this data on your own (in any reasonable amount of time anyway). We have already collected this data. It’s about 10-12%. Why is that hard to accept?

Because he is highly biased.

softblackcarbon.1537:

Why is this so hard to understand? If collectively, players report openings in bulk of 1000 chests, their average is likely to be fairly accurate. You’re not going to be able to collect this data on your own (in any reasonable amount of time anyway). We have already collected this data. It’s about 10-12%. Why is that hard to accept?

Its hard to understand because it hasnt yet be replicated.

IF everyone has the exact same chance of dropping an ascended chest at the end of a given fractal daily, then any collection of data collect by a group should be easy to duplicate by any other group that tries it because, as you say there is no other variable.

However, if another group cant duplicate the results then you have to look at the possible reasons why: faulty data collection, different times data was collected (different builds that altered loot tables), and the population used in each collection.

I have not been able to get anything close to 12% for the entire population of my sample group. I do have 1 guys who is currently sitting around 20% (3 chests in the last three weeks) but in the same time frame only 2 other chest dropped to 2 different people, which only comes out to a 6.667%. Yes, its early and +/-1 drop has the power to swing the % a lot but so far my numbers support what most people have seem to have suspected for weeks now and that is drop rates for ascended chests are greatly reduced compared to pre-HoT

Takina.1739:

softblackcarbon.1537:

Why is this so hard to understand? If collectively, players report openings in bulk of 1000 chests, their average is likely to be fairly accurate. You’re not going to be able to collect this data on your own (in any reasonable amount of time anyway). We have already collected this data. It’s about 10-12%. Why is that hard to accept?

Its hard to understand because it hasnt yet be replicated.

IF everyone has the exact same chance of dropping an ascended chest at the end of a given fractal daily, then any collection of data collect by a group should be easy to duplicate by any other group that tries it because, as you say there is no other variable.

However, if another group cant duplicate the results then you have to look at the possible reasons why: faulty data collection, different times data was collected (different builds that altered loot tables), and the population used in each collection.

I have not been able to get anything close to 12% for the entire population of my sample group. I do have 1 guys who is currently sitting around 20% (3 chests in the last three weeks) but in the same time frame only 2 other chest dropped to 2 different people, which only comes out to a 6.667%. Yes, its early and +/-1 drop has the power to swing the % a lot but so far my numbers support what most people have seem to have suspected for weeks now and that is drop rates for ascended chests are greatly reduced compared to pre-HoT

Correct, your only problem is: your sample size is laughable.

There, problem solved. That’s why you can’t replicate the data shown.

Every other collection of drop research provided by hundreds or thousands of players does point to a correction of the drops post the december update (in fact it pointed to way to low drops pre in the first place, which is why arenanet took a look at the droprate).

So now please, either get about 400-500 runs worth of drop research more (minimum) or let it be. You’re not even grasping at straws any more.

Exactly. Stop trying to look intelligent about statistic because you talk about a sample size of 35. If you mean 4 people with 35, that’s still just 140, which is just plain stupid. Again those are from self reporting source, I don’t know your methodology, so why should I care

KING have a sample size of 2800 last time I checked. The worst part is that if you are a professional in that shouldn’t you be able to calculate the sample size needed??

Calculate the sample size and reach it, then come back to us. Or at least get a sample size of 500-1000 then come back to us.

And make sure it’s about Champion chest. Don’t put other chest in their, they don’t have the same drop rate.

EDIT : And another thing just came to me. Are you saying that you have 4 soom 5 people that are giving you their information on their drop and they each gave their drop for 35 days? Because if that’s the case, I just call bullkitten. The new drop is in the game since the last 30-31 days. So I hope all your people opened their chest AFTER the 15 December right? Otherwise your information are just wrong.

Takina.1739:

softblackcarbon.1537:

Why is this so hard to understand? If collectively, players report openings in bulk of 1000 chests, their average is likely to be fairly accurate. You’re not going to be able to collect this data on your own (in any reasonable amount of time anyway). We have already collected this data. It’s about 10-12%. Why is that hard to accept?

Its hard to understand because it hasnt yet be replicated.

IF everyone has the exact same chance of dropping an ascended chest at the end of a given fractal daily, then any collection of data collect by a group should be easy to duplicate by any other group that tries it because, as you say there is no other variable.

However, if another group cant duplicate the results then you have to look at the possible reasons why: faulty data collection, different times data was collected (different builds that altered loot tables), and the population used in each collection.

I have not been able to get anything close to 12% for the entire population of my sample group. I do have 1 guys who is currently sitting around 20% (3 chests in the last three weeks) but in the same time frame only 2 other chest dropped to 2 different people, which only comes out to a 6.667%. Yes, its early and +/-1 drop has the power to swing the % a lot but so far my numbers support what most people have seem to have suspected for weeks now and that is drop rates for ascended chests are greatly reduced compared to pre-HoT

I think the two people above me responded pretty well to this. Your sample size is too small. That’s why you haven’t been able to replicate the numbers. People aren’t suspecting that the drop rates have been lowered because we’ve looked at the data (with a large enough sample size to trust it) and the rate has come out to between 10-12%. There’s no argument here. We’re simply calculating the probability of one event occurring. This is exactly the same as flipping a weighted coin. If you flip it 10, 50, 100, 200 times, you shouldn’t feel confident that your calculations of the weightings are accurate. Flip it 1000, 2000, 10000 times and then come running back if your weights are way different than the currently calculated values.

This is a piece of code that’s executed. It’s the same code for every player who double clicks a chest. The code does not change depending on your build, your class, the time it took to complete the fractal, etc. There are no conflating variables.

I’m just going to add this here – because people have been posting a lot of negative experiences with bad drops – and I feel those who do get good drops don’t really mention it much.

Since HoT released I’ve done FOTM almost every day (let’s say 80% of days) usually doing both high and medium fractals.
That’s given me a total of one whole ascended armor set, and around 5 weapons.