Guild Wars 2

Hi all!

I’m a regular Fractals-goer and my personal reward is at level 50. According to the achievement, I’ve completed well over 500 individual fractals (completing the achievement), and that’s not including all the fractals I did before the achievements were implemented.

I have acquired 3 fractal weapon skins — longbow, scepter, and hammer. There are one or two other skins I wish to acquire, but the RNG gods do not favor me.

Why is it that in almost every aspect of the game a person can work slowly towards large goals except for Fractal skins and precursors? Are Fractal skins akin to precursors? Why is there no means of working towards a skin outside of the RNG?

I say this of course, in a bit of frustration. I’ve been playing several weeks in a row without a skin in sight. I just wonder if there’s some way for ArenaNet to add a means to acquire the skins without relying on RNG.

Perhaps use the pristine fractal relics to buy a skin (maybe for like, 30/40/50 pristine relics)? It seems that would be a heck of a price to help circumvent bad luck, and would give me some use for all these pristine relics piling up.

You actually can work towards a precursor by saving up a lot of money.

We’ve been saying this since the age of the dinosaurs, OP.

Fact of the matter is they really, truly, do not give a flying fist of a **** about us or improving dungeons / fractals. It’s the sad truth.

Fractal frequenter achievement has been there ever since fractals first came out. Only achis added in the fractured patch were for the new fractals.

Honey, i played for 3 months with no skin drop. Nor ascended chests.

I just got a 2nd fractal hammer skin, I’m officially done with fractals unless they change something with the drop mechanics.

OP – I’ve been there.

Quested 8 months for the longbow. 8 Months. Did FOTM almost every day ( some days I couldn’t).
Did at least 2 daily runs.

I don’t even understand why they decided not to improve the RNG system with the fractured update.

A token system would work so well ( and has worked well in every other area of the game).

i have yet to see dagger… countless lv 50 fractals

by this time i already got 3 legendaries… says a lot about fractal weapon drop rates

My theory is this is our punishment for crying about fractured. “We tried to give you wanted but y’all seemed to think it was the ebola of updates so now we ain’t touching it with a ten foot pole. HF with those half fulfilled promises.”

I just look at skin rewards, then look at the pre-launch interviews where they are talking about the token system in dungeons and how much better it is then RNG loot chests, and scratch my head. There’s even a token system IN fotm already…I dunno man.

Precursors you can work towards by saving gold. I’ve done it once myself. But don’t forget teq hoard. I ran teq a ridiculous amount of times. I would say far more than my gw2 friends, yet they hav teq hoard and i dont. I also once upon a time suffered through fractal rng by trying well over 500+ fractals for the greatsword which i never got. I now quit fractals, gave up that goal and have 2 legendaries. So yea i stay far clear of account rng stuff now. Only running teq for the karma XD

Keep in mind that for, a while there (until November I think), the droprates for fractal skins were accidentally screwed up (for the worse) for fractals 40+. I’m not sure when they first screwed it up, but I didn’t get a single skin for about three months. After the patch notes where they said that they fixed it, I got four more fractal skins I didn’t have before.

Alquinon.2957:

Keep in mind that for, a while there (until November I think), the droprates for fractal skins were accidentally screwed up (for the worse) for fractals 40+. I’m not sure when they first screwed it up, but I didn’t get a single skin for about three months. After the patch notes where they said that they fixed it, I got four more fractal skins I didn’t have before.

Even with that fix, it’s still not enough. The token system needs to be implemented for fractals as well.

rfdarko.4639:

My theory is this is our punishment for crying about fractured. “We tried to give you wanted but y’all seemed to think it was the ebola of updates so now we ain’t touching it with a ten foot pole. HF with those half fulfilled promises.”

I just look at skin rewards, then look at the pre-launch interviews where they are talking about the token system in dungeons and how much better it is then RNG loot chests, and scratch my head. There’s even a token system IN fotm already…I dunno man.

I want to believe that they were serious back then, but in the end Nexon forced the “Cox Box” grind game on all of us. So blame them and bow to the RNG god.

Vagrant.7206:

Alquinon.2957:

Keep in mind that for, a while there (until November I think), the droprates for fractal skins were accidentally screwed up (for the worse) for fractals 40+. I’m not sure when they first screwed it up, but I didn’t get a single skin for about three months. After the patch notes where they said that they fixed it, I got four more fractal skins I didn’t have before.

Even with that fix, it’s still not enough. The token system needs to be implemented for fractals as well.

Even with the fix the drop rate is still like 4x worse than prepatch. Fractured patch was by far the worst patch this game has ever had. It did nothing valuable and broke the best content in the game.

I’d also like to point out that chests for ascended armor drop at a worse rate (in my experience) from fractals than from pvp chests.

Vagrant.7206:

I’d also like to point out that chests for ascended armor drop at a worse rate (in my experience) from fractals than from pvp chests.

you must either pvp a lot, be a low fractal level, or both.

insanemaniac.2456:

Vagrant.7206:

I’d also like to point out that chests for ascended armor drop at a worse rate (in my experience) from fractals than from pvp chests.

you must either pvp a lot, be a low fractal level, or both.

Like I said (in the OP), I’m fractal level 50. I do 49 and 38 most commonly.

So maybe the former. :P

If you keep at fractals you will eventually get the skins you want after a long time

I’ve done fractals back to back for as long as they’ve been out. While I don’t have all skins and I get plenty of dupes, I still have gotten most I’ve wanted.
Admittedly, the drop %’s are insanely low which makes for very frustrating seasons.
Also, fractal tonic is a lie.

I have only received 2 fractal skins since I started fractals (Hammer and Speargun) Both of which have very few uses for how I usually run. But it does seem like I get them after a 300~ fractal instances, of course this is all just RNG so it still varies. Still though, every time I get empyreal fragments out of the daily chest at a 49 scale, the small fraction of hope that anet will do anything to fix bad RNG for dungeons or fractals continues to slowly wither away.

Vagrant.7206:

Like I said (in the OP), I’m fractal level 50. I do 49 and 38 most commonly.

So maybe the former. :P

Depending on how much time you have, I’d recommending doing a 29 or 30 as well. Most of my skins have dropped from the 20s tier, I tend to just get rings or healers chest of ascended gloves from 50s.

Is it bad I get bummed when I don’t get a fractal skin for two weeks? Just about all the fract weapon skins I’ve gotten have been sub lvl 40 personal reward.

The fractal skins I’ve gotten: hammer, shield, longbow, shortbow, sword, axe, trident, scepter, and mace (twice). Got one malicious armor helm chest.

rfdarko.4639:

Vagrant.7206:

Like I said (in the OP), I’m fractal level 50. I do 49 and 38 most commonly.

So maybe the former. :P

Depending on how much time you have, I’d recommending doing a 29 or 30 as well. Most of my skins have dropped from the 20s tier, I tend to just get rings or healers chest of ascended gloves from 50s.

Thanks for the tip, I’ll try that.

Been doing 3 fractals averagly each day since 2 years and I have yet to see a Dagger drop, got every other weapon 3x atleast tho(dont even want them)

I wish I could turn all of my weapons just for the dagger

Painbow.6059:

If you keep at fractals you will eventually get the skins you want after a long time

Why the false statement? If luck isn’t on your side you can literally never get the skin you want. If you happen to be super lucky you can also get the weapon you want after the first time you run a 20+, sometimes lower. Rng account bound…… one of the worst things in gw2 imo.

running FOTM since launch 500+ pristine relics and still no fractal sword, loads of shields. I play a thief ….

OMNIBUS.2913:

Painbow.6059:

If you keep at fractals you will eventually get the skins you want after a long time

Why the false statement? If luck isn’t on your side you can literally never get the skin you want. If you happen to be super lucky you can also get the weapon you want after the first time you run a 20+, sometimes lower. Rng account bound…… one of the worst things in gw2 imo.

it isnt false, he said “long time” with no other qualifier

im at 14 skins and still dont have the one that i want, hasnt been a long enough time yet (11 unique skins post fracture)

You could do it for eternity and never get the skins you want. Its RNG. The probabality of getting what you want doesnt increase over time.

Technically, given an infinite amount of time anything is possible.

It’s just that I don’t want to play Fractals for eternity.

spoj.9672:

You could do it for eternity and never get the skins you want. Its RNG. The probabality of getting what you want doesnt increase over time.

All hail GReNth

But your frustration does. And your will to play declines. The fun goes away. And if you were supporting this studio with gem purchases like I used to then you quickly stop doing that. In the end everyone is worse off.

Oh but yeah of course “enjoy the trip, not the destination”

Well Anet, I hope you enjoyed your trip, because you are getting nowhere.

Vagrant.7206:

Technically, given an infinite amount of time anything is possible.

It’s just that I don’t want to play Fractals for eternity.

That includes never getting what you want.

insanemaniac.2456:

OMNIBUS.2913:

Painbow.6059:

If you keep at fractals you will eventually get the skins you want after a long time

Why the false statement? If luck isn’t on your side you can literally never get the skin you want. If you happen to be super lucky you can also get the weapon you want after the first time you run a 20+, sometimes lower. Rng account bound…… one of the worst things in gw2 imo.

it isnt false, he said “long time” with no other qualifier

im at 14 skins and still dont have the one that i want, hasnt been a long enough time yet (11 unique skins post fracture)

I’ll just restate this “If luck isn’t on your side you can literally never get the skin you want.” Which means you wont get it eventually if your not lucky.

One way they could make htios better is give us a ‘Fractal Weapon’s Chest’ and the choice of the skin we actually want. we have asc chests for both armor and weapons, why not for the fractal skins too? what use am i going to have for 5 of the same skin? or acould also allow us to use the skins in the mystic forge maybe? 4 skins in and get another out, more rng but id rather have the option to do that too. at least then my 4 fractal warhorns might get me the fractal focus or greatsword

OMNIBUS.2913:

insanemaniac.2456:

OMNIBUS.2913:

Painbow.6059:

If you keep at fractals you will eventually get the skins you want after a long time

Why the false statement? If luck isn’t on your side you can literally never get the skin you want. If you happen to be super lucky you can also get the weapon you want after the first time you run a 20+, sometimes lower. Rng account bound…… one of the worst things in gw2 imo.

it isnt false, he said “long time” with no other qualifier

im at 14 skins and still dont have the one that i want, hasnt been a long enough time yet (11 unique skins post fracture)

I’ll just restate this “If luck isn’t on your side you can literally never get the skin you want.” Which means you wont get it eventually if your not lucky.

yeah the rng sucks, but the probability of getting skins is nonzero

>.>

insanemaniac.2456:

OMNIBUS.2913:

insanemaniac.2456:

OMNIBUS.2913:

Painbow.6059:

If you keep at fractals you will eventually get the skins you want after a long time

Why the false statement? If luck isn’t on your side you can literally never get the skin you want. If you happen to be super lucky you can also get the weapon you want after the first time you run a 20+, sometimes lower. Rng account bound…… one of the worst things in gw2 imo.

it isnt false, he said “long time” with no other qualifier

im at 14 skins and still dont have the one that i want, hasnt been a long enough time yet (11 unique skins post fracture)

I’ll just restate this “If luck isn’t on your side you can literally never get the skin you want.” Which means you wont get it eventually if your not lucky.

yeah the rng sucks, but the probability of getting skins is nonzero

>.>

Its still entirely possible to never get a skin though. So he was correct in saying thats a false statement. It may be true for many people. But it is not an absolute true statement.

Vagrant.7206:

Why is it that in almost every aspect of the game a person can work slowly towards large goals except for Fractal skins and precursors? Are Fractal skins akin to precursors? Why is there no means of working towards a skin outside of the RNG?

There have been many, many incarnations of this topic in the past and it has never gotten better. In fact they lowered the drop rates.

My guess is that they have no plans on adding any more Fractal content, and they believe the RNG will encourage players to continue running Fractals.

I have some Fractal skins, and some that I want.

I gave up trying to get the remaining skins. The Fractals can be fun, but the existing system has too little respect for my time, it feels insulting.

Zelyhn Lekovitch.2867:

Oh but yeah of course “enjoy the trip, not the destination”

Well Anet, I hope you enjoyed your trip, because you are getting nowhere.

I never liked that sentiment. The “trip” and the “destination” are not always separable, they are deeply entwined and give each other reason for existence, especially in the context of “actions” and ’rewards".

spoj.9672:

Its still entirely possible to never get a skin though.

no, it isnt. it is literally not possible to never get a skin. because the probability of getting a skin is nonzero.

voidwater.2064:

Zelyhn Lekovitch.2867:

Oh but yeah of course “enjoy the trip, not the destination”

Well Anet, I hope you enjoyed your trip, because you are getting nowhere.

I never liked that sentiment. The “trip” and the “destination” are not always separable, they are deeply entwined and give each other reason for existence, especially in the context of “actions” and ’rewards".

I completely agree, that is why I put the statement in between quotes: it does not represent my personal opinion.

Unfortunately it appears that this statement defines Anet’s philosophy entirely. I believe that because of this they are making a lot of misguided choices.

insanemaniac.2456:

spoj.9672:

Its still entirely possible to never get a skin though.

no, it isnt. it is literally not possible to never get a skin. because the probability of getting a skin is nonzero.

You are confusing “possible” and “probable”. It is entirely possible not to ever get a skin, but it is not probable. And each time you attempt it, your odds remain just as bad, regardless of how many times you have attempted before.

Zelyhn Lekovitch.2867:

insanemaniac.2456:

spoj.9672:

Its still entirely possible to never get a skin though.

no, it isnt. it is literally not possible to never get a skin. because the probability of getting a skin is nonzero.

You are confusing “possible” and “probable”. It is entirely possible not to ever get a skin, but it is not probable. And each time you attempt it, your odds remain just as bad, regardless of how many times you have attempted before.

im not the one confusing things. stop saying “never”.

insanemaniac.2456:

spoj.9672:

Its still entirely possible to never get a skin though.

no, it isnt. it is literally not possible to never get a skin. because the probability of getting a skin is nonzero.

Are you telling me that for when p[sub]success[/sub] for a trial is not 1, that for an infinite number of trials you must necessarily have to have to a successful trial at some point? Really? Because I’m pretty sure the only statement you can make there is “almost surely”, and that’s a long way off from what you’re claiming.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Infinite_monkey_theorem#Almost_surely

And of course, the number of trials is definitely bounded by the human lifespan in this case. So we’re not even at “almost surely”. We’re not even close, since I am relatively certain the human lifespan is longer than the life span of GW2, too.

Yeah probabilities can be tricky to understand sometimes

But really the worse part is not the expectation of rewards, but the sense of progression: everytime you “fail” to get the reward your odds do not improve. First of all you have no influence on whether you will fail to get the reward or not. But then every single attempt you will perform, how ever numerous, will never help you progress towards the completion of your goal. This is the huge flaw in the system. The more effort you put into it the more your frustration grows, meanwhile your chance at completing your goal remains unimproved.

I think Anet based their system on the idea that people will always want to do runs with unchanging motivation. That is: the enjoyment you get from the journey always remain the same. Therefore you always have an incentive to attempt achieving your goal. But obviously this is not the case: we all get bored after enough runs. So in the end, the more you run the less likely you are to run again, while you make no progress towards achieving your goal. I know that this game is not about progression … but since the developers cannot release any content then the game is stagnating, with deflating incentives to play.

When you compare this system to things like Diablo 3 where the same content is simply rehashed almost infinitely while giving you a sense of progression, it really makes you wonder how Anet could get this so wrong.

In short: system flawed, no long-term viability, and costly to maintain in the short run.

Zui.9245:

insanemaniac.2456:

spoj.9672:

Its still entirely possible to never get a skin though.

no, it isnt. it is literally not possible to never get a skin. because the probability of getting a skin is nonzero.

Are you telling me that for when p[sub]success[/sub] for a trial is not 1, that for an infinite number of trials you must necessarily have to have to a successful trial at some point? Really? Because I’m pretty sure the only statement you can make there is “almost surely”, and that’s a long way off from what you’re claiming.

yes.

• “This is an extension of the principle that a finite string of random text has a lower and lower probability of being a particular string the longer it is (though all specific strings are equally unlikely). This probability approaches 0 as the string approaches infinity. Thus, the probability of the monkey typing an endlessly long string, such as all of the digits of pi in order, on a 90-key keyboard is (1/90)? which equals (1/?) which is essentially 0. At the same time, the probability that the sequence contains a particular subsequence (such as the word MONKEY, or the 12th through 999th digits of pi, or a version of the King James Bible) increases as the total string increases. This probability approaches 1 as the total string approaches infinity, and thus the original theorem is correct.”

does it suck? yes. should you say never? no.

insanemaniac.2456:

approaches infinity

Well, the game probably has a finite lifespan.

At some point, it will be shut down, or there will be so few people playing that you have great difficulty getting a Fractal group going, so you won’t be able to have infinite trials.

Real life schedules, commitments, and the length of Fractals itself also put a practical limit on the number of possible trials.

So for many people, I think there’s actually a significant chance that they will never get the skin they want.

insanemaniac.2456:

Zui.9245:

insanemaniac.2456:

spoj.9672:

Its still entirely possible to never get a skin though.

no, it isnt. it is literally not possible to never get a skin. because the probability of getting a skin is nonzero.

Are you telling me that for when p[sub]success[/sub] for a trial is not 1, that for an infinite number of trials you must necessarily have to have to a successful trial at some point? Really? Because I’m pretty sure the only statement you can make there is “almost surely”, and that’s a long way off from what you’re claiming.

yes.

• “This is an extension of the principle that a finite string of random text has a lower and lower probability of being a particular string the longer it is (though all specific strings are equally unlikely). This probability approaches 0 as the string approaches infinity. Thus, the probability of the monkey typing an endlessly long string, such as all of the digits of pi in order, on a 90-key keyboard is (1/90)? which equals (1/?) which is essentially 0. At the same time, the probability that the sequence contains a particular subsequence (such as the word MONKEY, or the 12th through 999th digits of pi, or a version of the King James Bible) increases as the total string increases. This probability approaches 1 as the total string approaches infinity, and thus the original theorem is correct.”

does it suck? yes. should you say never? no.

The key word is it “approaches”. But it never actually reaches it.

spoj.9672:

The key word is it “approaches”. But it never actually reaches it.

heres some reasonable numbers:

if you run one 50 a day for 3 years you have a .11% chance of not getting any certain weapon

life of the game will most likely be more than 3 years, used the king doc’s 11.8% chance of getting any weapon, assumed a uniform distribution of weapon drop rates. you can cut that time in almost half by running a 40 too.

/shrug

will you get fed up before that? likely. but there are much less than 1000 people complaining about fractal drop rates here, so its very likely that if each of those complainers did a 50 for 3 years, they would all get the weapon they want.

You are mixing up “probable” with “possible” again. This is basic logic and basic probability.

i havent mixed up anything, im not the one saying never.

insanemaniac.2456:

i havent mixed up anything, im not the one saying never.

No offence, but you are not the one making sense either. I know we are simply nitpicking about maths, but we must be accurate.

We are saying that is it possible that you will never get the skin, although unlikely in the long-term.

Now that we all agree on the uninteresting maths behind this statement, let’s focus on what really matters: the sense of progression.

My opinion is that Anet completely failed at giving us:
- Influence over our progression towards our goals
- Incentives to repeat tries

Zelyhn Lekovitch.2867:

No offence, but you are not the one making sense either. I know we are simply nitpicking about maths, but we must be accurate.

We are saying that is it possible that you will never get the skin, although unlikely in the long-term.

idk whats so hard to understand about “dont say never”. thats what ive said 3 times now. because never is wrong. you can say its possible one will not get the skin, and thats fine. but to say its possible one will never get the skin is false.