Guild Wars 2

Is random really random?

I did a fractal run with a group
1. Grawl
2. Asura
3. Underwater
4. was to be Jade maw

A couple people DCed during Asura, but we completed it, and went to the next fractal just to see what it would be. Then we reset out of courtesy to the rest of our group.

With the same group immediately after reset, we did another run.
1. Grawl
2. Asura
3. Underwater
4. Jade Maw

What are the odds? Same 3 fractals, same order, and consecutively?

I’m assuming same 3 fractals is 1/336 (8*7*6), but when you add the same order, and twice consecutively, those seem like crazy odds, and not quite random.

By the way, in my last three >10 daily runs, all five members, all three times, three days in a row all got zero rings. Random?

At least you got 2 out of 3 of the easy ones.

I guess some people consider the grawl one easy too, but I don’t. No sir!

So far I’ve got the Underwater one after the Asura one, every single time. Grawl to Asura, not so much.

To be fair: assuming an even distribution of fractal combinations the odds of getting the exact same combo you just got is the same as any other given set of three defined fractals.

You’re going to need a sample size a lot larger than two to demonstrate anything.