Guild Wars 2

Out of order patch, with my internet connection this will take a while, but I’m allready done with my runs for today. Nowadays I only do fractals, got everything from dungeons and am bored of farming gold. But I want the rest of the fractal skins.

Currently I have 10/19 unlocked and have not been getting new ones in the last tries (last skins I got were sword, dagger, pistol and greatword iirc, all of which I allready had). Today was really nice with no skin in 20,30,40 nor 50. That’s not really that unlikely, the chance to get at least one skin is only 25% if one does all 4 runs (and the [KING] data is somewhat correct). But this got me thinking: “How many days does it take to get all skins on average?”.

If I remember correctly this would be a multinomial distribution and could be seen as the problem: “I have 4 urns filled with lots and lots of different balls. Some balls are gold colored, the ratio being {0.02, 0.042, 0.099, 0.116} dependant on the urn. All gold balls are numbered from 1 to 19, the numbers are equally distributed (an assumption I know, but I want to believe). If I were to randomly take a ball from each urn in order and put it back after looking at it, how many sets would it take to have seen every number at least once on average”. If I had studied mathematics I might be inclined to solve it that way, but I did not. … So I just hacked together a simulation and let it run a million times. Here the result:

     Simulating 1000000 tries with 4 runs per day.
     Done Simulating
     After 1000000 tries number of days for all skins is: 243 (mean) 147 (median)
     On average 67 skins were found.
     fastest: 44 days
     slowest: 1166 days

So if someone had zero skins unlocked and would run all fractal bonus chests it would take on average 243 days (so ~1000 fractal runs). And because my program is adaptable, let’s assume the fictional player is not interested in running fractals 4 times a day, s/he just wants to run it once a day on level 50.

     Simulating 1000000 tries with 1 runs per day.
     Done Simulating
     After 1000000 tries the number of days for all skins is: 580 (mean) 787 (median)
     On average 67 skins were found.
     fastest: 109 days
     slowest: 3307 days

Takes longer, but less runs in total (not surprising).

I knew it would take some time, but I think this is a little much. So I really hope a fractal weapon skin chest gets added soon. What about you, how far along have you all gotten? I know some people are finished with the “collection” but how long did it take? And do we have a mathematics professor here who wants to give this problem as a small exercise for his/her students?

I was really excited when I got my first fractal weapon drop.

SPEARGUN.

there were tears. I haven’t really been to Fracs since…

roachsrealm.9284:

I was really excited when I got my first fractal weapon drop.

SPEARGUN.

there were tears. I haven’t really been to Fracs since…

Now, imagine doing fractals since they came out for sole purpose of getting scepter and focus and till this day you get every single fractal weapon but scepter and focus. Still gonna do fractals with high hopes

roachsrealm.9284:

I was really excited when I got my first fractal weapon drop.

SPEARGUN.

there were tears. I haven’t really been to Fracs since…

you remind me the only percusor I got during 2 years GW2 life.
underwater weapon.

I got a fractal trident 2 days ago – one before reset run (FoTM 50)
Then RNG … Got another one after reset (FoTM 50) – another trident !

Odds of that happening should be so low … Something fishy with fract rewards as I often have same loot in final side chest when repeating the run on the next day.

roachsrealm.9284:

I was really excited when I got my first fractal weapon drop.

SPEARGUN.

there were tears. I haven’t really been to Fracs since…

And then there’s me, who, after hundreds of 40/50 runs, has 18/19 and the last one missing is a Speargun.

i started to run lv 50 every day trying to get dagger… in meantime i got 3 legendaries and still no fractal dagger….

dem torches tho~

at this point i don’t even bother anymore lol

haku.4698:

roachsrealm.9284:

I was really excited when I got my first fractal weapon drop.

SPEARGUN.

there were tears. I haven’t really been to Fracs since…

you remind me the only percusor I got during 2 years GW2 life.
underwater weapon.

At least you have seen a precursor. The most expensive exotic I have ever had drop was Entropy for 12 gold.

I remember an EU guildmate, got Dusk first from Temple of Grenth, and then The Legend off another temple event a week after. It entirely funded his own Twilight.

He quit a month later. The joys of a system with RNG gated skins.

I have no idea what I’m going for with fractal skins. I’ve got most of the ones I could say I wanted. I guess I’ve been pretty lucky in that I’ve not had repeated skins yet.
So far

Sword, focus, shortbow, longbow, axe, spear, shield, sceptre

I wouldn’t mind the pistol I suppose or the rifle.