Guild Wars 2

It’s not about skill anymore at all when RGN is the only thing preventing you from moving forward in fotm. Don’t get rings, but have done 200 total runs? Dailies for over a week now. Why is this even a thing? You should limit RGN to certain confirmed number where you actually get it no matter what, because this isn’t fun, skill-based, nor rewarding anymore. Bad game design is what it is.

Can we get a response as to why they think luck is the right way to go about it? I’m very interested. I don’t mind RNG most of the time all that much, but this is on a whole new level.

I don’t think drop rates for rings are that low. From the stuff I’ve been reading, it seems like a 20-30% chance to drop a ring at dailies 10-18. You’re just unlucky, I got my first ring on my 2nd daily.

Forgive me if I misunderstood something, but by 200 total runs do you mean 200 fractals? I believe rings only drop from the daily chest. I’m going to assume you have 1 character? If you’ve been doing dailies for a week, that’s about ~7 chances at a ring. If 2 chars, 14 chances.

Yes I was just pointing out, 200 total runs of fractals yet im stuck because of something based on luck. And I have done over a week of dailies now yes, don’t know exactly how many but it’s enough to be stupid to not let me progress.

Do we really need another one of these threads? The devs already stated that more ways to get the rings will be added later. It wont be 100% RNG then.

A 20 fractal relic bonus as well as Bag of Gold is given in a Bonus Chest that appears as a reward for completing even levels (2,4,6,8,,), but only once per 10 levels (1-9,10-19,20-29,,) per day per character. In this chest from lvl 10 and up you have a small chance of getting an ascended ring.

It has nothing to do with how many fractals you have done or do per day. Only what you get in this one daily chest every 10th fractal level ( 10-18, 20-28, 30-38). I havent heard of anyone getting to level 40 yest so you have max 3 chances pr day pr character to get a ring.

Just some advise (I’m not sure if this applies to you or not).

But try doing the 10-18, 20-28, 30-38 dailies with multiple characters. You’ll maximize your odds of getting a ring that way, instead of just running fractals ad nausea with just one character.

Just some quick calculations.

Assuming 20% chance for a ring to drop from a daily.
Assuming just doing one tier of daily
Assuming using one character.
So a total of 7 tries

You have about ~20.9% chance of not getting ANYTHING at all.

But if you say, do it with two characters instead (total of 14 tries)
you now are looking at ~4.3% chance of not getting ANYTHING. Not bad odds at all, unless you’re really unlucky!

Ursan.7846:

Just some advise (I’m not sure if this applies to you or not).

But try doing the 10-18, 20-28, 30-38 dailies with multiple characters. You’ll maximize your odds of getting a ring that way, instead of just running fractals ad nausea with just one character.

Just some quick calculations.

Assuming 20% chance for a ring to drop from a daily.
Assuming just doing one tier of daily
Assuming using one character.
So a total of 7 tries

You have about ~20.9% chance of not getting ANYTHING at all.

But if you say, do it with two characters instead (total of 14 tries)
you now are looking at ~4.3% chance of not getting ANYTHING. Not bad odds at all, unless you’re really unlucky!

I don’t think thats how it works. Every time you run a daily , your chance is always 20%. Doesn’t matter that you have run it 100 times, your 101st time is still 20%.

Toss a coin 100 times its still 50% chance of heads , toss a coin 1000 times its 50%.

Getting a large sample pool only helps in determining the true drop chance.

You do not need agony to reach lvl 30+. You do need agony to survive jade maw. If you have a solid party, they will see a good player dodging every agony attack and im pretty sure they’d be okay with you dying in jade maw. Agony is a huge spoil factor to people who basically in other words, need to Learn to Dodge.

fortytwo.3485:

Ursan.7846:

Just some advise (I’m not sure if this applies to you or not).

But try doing the 10-18, 20-28, 30-38 dailies with multiple characters. You’ll maximize your odds of getting a ring that way, instead of just running fractals ad nausea with just one character.

Just some quick calculations.

Assuming 20% chance for a ring to drop from a daily.
Assuming just doing one tier of daily
Assuming using one character.
So a total of 7 tries

You have about ~20.9% chance of not getting ANYTHING at all.

But if you say, do it with two characters instead (total of 14 tries)
you now are looking at ~4.3% chance of not getting ANYTHING. Not bad odds at all, unless you’re really unlucky!

I don’t think thats how it works. Every time you run a daily , your chance is always 20%. Doesn’t matter that you have run it 100 times, your 101st time is still 20%.

Toss a coin 100 times its still 50% chance of heads , toss a coin 1000 times its 50%.

Getting a large sample pool only helps in determining the true drop chance.

Say you did 5 runs. Each run has a 20% chance to drop the ring. Each run has a 80% chance to not drop anything. Hence, after 5 runs, the chances of you not having gotten anything is 80% * 80% * 80% * 80% * 80%. And the chance of getting AT LEAST one ring is 100% minus whatever that number is.

Of course, after having done these 5 runs, the chance of you getting a drop on your 6th run will be 20%. But the more runs you do, the higher the chance that, among those many runs, you get at least one ring.

I have done 17 lvl 10 daily and still haven’t seen a ring. Why don’t you calculate that chance?

Forget the rings, how about my kitten Vial?

Coming up on 100 runs and still not a single Vial.

KerriganGR.2736:

I have done 17 lvl 10 daily and still haven’t seen a ring. Why don’t you calculate that chance?

2.25%. You’re pretty unlucky there mate.

Assuming 20% chance of course.

Agreed, pretty unlucky. I’ve done 14 level 10 dailies, and I’ve gotten 5 rings from them. I still haven’t gotten the rings that I actually want though, so I continue running them.

I’m willing to bet that that law of probability doesn’t apply there. The chance is the same every time you run it.

Heliox.8632:

You do not need agony to reach lvl 30+. You do need agony to survive jade maw. If you have a solid party, they will see a good player dodging every agony attack and im pretty sure they’d be okay with you dying in jade maw. Agony is a huge spoil factor to people who basically in other words, need to Learn to Dodge.

Sounds like you haven’t even played the dungeon. At level 20, jade maw agony kills anyone with 5+ ag resistance or less. You don’t dodge that agony. There’s a couple more places where it’s impossible to dodge agony because it’s area wide.

KerriganGR.2736:

I’m willing to bet that that law of probability doesn’t apply there. The chance is the same every time you run it.

I’m not sure what you mean by “law of probability doesn’t apply…” (Because it does always) But I wanted to clear up and misunderstandings/confusion I may have caused.

Probability says, that after you’ve opened 17 chests, the 18th chest will have a 20% chance to drop a ring. What you’ve done previously will not affect what you do next.

However, in those 17 chests you’ve opened, you HAD a 2.25% probability that you get absolutely nothing. And if you got nothing, then you had a bad luck since there was a 97.75% chance of getting AT LEAST 1 ring.

Hope this makes sense.

18 lvl 10 now and no ring. Seriously???

Ursan.7846:

KerriganGR.2736:

I’m willing to bet that that law of probability doesn’t apply there. The chance is the same every time you run it.

I’m not sure what you mean by “law of probability doesn’t apply…” (Because it does always) But I wanted to clear up and misunderstandings/confusion I may have caused.

Probability says, that after you’ve opened 17 chests, the 18th chest will have a 20% chance to drop a ring. What you’ve done previously will not affect what you do next.

However, in those 17 chests you’ve opened, you HAD a 2.25% probability that you get absolutely nothing. And if you got nothing, then you had a bad luck since there was a 97.75% chance of getting AT LEAST 1 ring.

Hope this makes sense.

not really, I don’t think you can multiply or add the drop chances of these events together, they are separate.

However i give you this. I’ve run 10 dailies and I saw 0 rings. So I’m experiencing 0% drop chance, however we know this not true. The drop chance is 20%. So the more runs I do , eventually my drop chance will approach 20%. But in no scenario will my drop chance be better than 20%.

Sorry, you can make excuses and calculate %’s and probabilities all day long… any % less than 100 and the system is BROKEN.

fortytwo.3485:

Ursan.7846:

KerriganGR.2736:

I’m willing to bet that that law of probability doesn’t apply there. The chance is the same every time you run it.

I’m not sure what you mean by “law of probability doesn’t apply…” (Because it does always) But I wanted to clear up and misunderstandings/confusion I may have caused.

Probability says, that after you’ve opened 17 chests, the 18th chest will have a 20% chance to drop a ring. What you’ve done previously will not affect what you do next.

However, in those 17 chests you’ve opened, you HAD a 2.25% probability that you get absolutely nothing. And if you got nothing, then you had a bad luck since there was a 97.75% chance of getting AT LEAST 1 ring.

Hope this makes sense.

not really, I don’t think you can multiply or add the drop chances of these events together, they are separate.

However i give you this. I’ve run 10 dailies and I saw 0 rings. So I’m experiencing 0% drop chance, however we know this not true. The drop chance is 20%. So the more runs I do , eventually my drop chance will approach 20%. But in no scenario will my drop chance be better than 20%.

Again, forgive me if my explanations are causing any confusion. But yes, you can multiply chances to calculate the probability to get an item over an X amount of attempts. Sticking with my 20% assumption, there is a 80% probability to not get anything on 1 attempt. So, for 10 attempts, there is a 0.8 ^ 10 chance (10.7 %) of not getting ANYTHING. And 1 – 0.8^10 chance of getting at least one ring.

Does this guarantee any set result? No it doesn’t. Your result was that you got nothing. It just means something that had a 10% chance of happening, happened for you.

Of course, the 11th chest you open will have a 20% chance of dropping the ring. And who knows, you might get 3 rings in a row and push your success rate over 20%. But that is luck!

Ursan.7846:

But yes, you can multiply chances to calculate the probability to get an item over an X amount of attempts.

Dude you calculation are correct if this was all a single event like a raffle or a lottery draw. The more tickets you have the better your chances of winning.

But each daily chest opening is a SEPARATE EVENT , you cannot add the drop chance. Please refer to your text, your applying the wrong formula, you can’t use it here. 10th time i run the daily , my chances of getting the ring is not 90%.

fortytwo.3485:

Dude you calculation are correct if this was all a single event like a raffle or a lottery draw. The more tickets you have the better your chances of winning.

But each daily chest opening is a SEPARATE EVENT , you cannot add the drop chance. Please refer to your text, your applying the wrong formula, you can’t use it here. 10th time i run the daily , my chances of getting the ring is not 90%.

I really don’t want to sound patronizing but…..I think you should read my text/formulas more carefully.

I understand they’re separate events. That is why I am multiplying the drop chances.

Also I am not saying after you open 9 chests, you should have a 90% chance to get a ring in the 10th chest. You will have a 20% chance still to get a ring on your 10th chest. However, when you look at all 10 events overall, you HAD a 90% chance to get at least one ring.

Ursan.7846:

I really don’t want to sound patronizing but…..I think you should read my text/formulas more carefully.

I understand they’re separate events. That is why I am multiplying the drop chances.

Also I am not saying after you open 9 chests, you should have a 90% chance to get a ring in the 10th chest. You will have a 20% chance still to get a ring on your 10th chest. However, when you look at all 10 events overall, you HAD a 90% chance to get at least one ring.

I think you are interpreting the Multiplication rule incorrectly

http://www.mathgoodies.com/lessons/vol6/independent_events.html

So Chance of ring drop say is 20%. So my chances of getting 10 rings from 10 straight events is 0.2^10 = 10 in 1 Million. that is how it is used.

fortytwo.3485:

Ursan.7846:

I really don’t want to sound patronizing but…..I think you should read my text/formulas more carefully.

I understand they’re separate events. That is why I am multiplying the drop chances.

Also I am not saying after you open 9 chests, you should have a 90% chance to get a ring in the 10th chest. You will have a 20% chance still to get a ring on your 10th chest. However, when you look at all 10 events overall, you HAD a 90% chance to get at least one ring.

I think you are interpreting the Multiplication rule incorrectly

http://www.mathgoodies.com/lessons/vol6/independent_events.html

So Chance of ring drop say is 20%. So my chances of getting 10 rings from 10 straight events is 0.2^10 = 10 in 1 Million. that is how it is used.

Yes, you are correct. That is the chance of getting 10 rings in 10 chests.

But what about the probability of getting AT LEAST ONE RING from the 10 chests? That will the the 100% minus the probability of getting NO RINGS AT ALL, correct? The probability of getting NO RINGS AT ALL is 0.8^10 = 0.107. So the probability of getting AT LEAST ONE RING will be 1 – 0.107 = 0.89. 89%, essentially.

Gasoline.2570:

It’s not about skill anymore at all when RGN is the only thing preventing you from moving forward in fotm. Don’t get rings, but have done 200 total runs? Dailies for over a week now. Why is this even a thing? You should limit RGN to certain confirmed number where you actually get it no matter what, because this isn’t fun, skill-based, nor rewarding anymore. Bad game design is what it is.

Can we get a response as to why they think luck is the right way to go about it? I’m very interested. I don’t mind RNG most of the time all that much, but this is on a whole new level.

I agree, RNG on these rings needs to be removed and some other method should be introduced (or leave in the RNG, and offer us another method). Been doing dailies since it was released, most of those days doing lv 10. Every other person I run with has a minimum of 4-5 rings, some have 8+. I’m still waiting on my first ring (over 798 hours played and still waiting on my first exotic drop too….). I’m not asking to be given free rings, but at this point, even if they offered them at 2-3k fractal relics per ring, I could buy the first and have a hefty start on my second….

I think they said they’re working on it. My problem is they didn’t realize this would be an issue until after the backlash. It’s scary when devs are this out of touch. Doesn’t bode well for the future.

Forget the math for gods sake. The system is completely broken. I was talking to a guy telling him how i did all those runs without a ring and he was and i quote: “what? I thought the ring was awarded as part of the daily!” Needless to say that guy was getting 1 ring for every run he did. Somehow, the chance if getting a ring for you is related to the chance of another guy getting the ring. There are players that get tons of rings and players that get nothing.

Ursan.7846:

fortytwo.3485:

Ursan.7846:

I really don’t want to sound patronizing but…..I think you should read my text/formulas more carefully.

I understand they’re separate events. That is why I am multiplying the drop chances.

Also I am not saying after you open 9 chests, you should have a 90% chance to get a ring in the 10th chest. You will have a 20% chance still to get a ring on your 10th chest. However, when you look at all 10 events overall, you HAD a 90% chance to get at least one ring.

I think you are interpreting the Multiplication rule incorrectly

http://www.mathgoodies.com/lessons/vol6/independent_events.html

So Chance of ring drop say is 20%. So my chances of getting 10 rings from 10 straight events is 0.2^10 = 10 in 1 Million. that is how it is used.

Yes, you are correct. That is the chance of getting 10 rings in 10 chests.

But what about the probability of getting AT LEAST ONE RING from the 10 chests? That will the the 100% minus the probability of getting NO RINGS AT ALL, correct? The probability of getting NO RINGS AT ALL is 0.8^10 = 0.107. So the probability of getting AT LEAST ONE RING will be 1 – 0.107 = 0.89. 89%, essentially.

I stopped arguing anything higher than basic maths on the internet long ago. From looking at this thread, I’d say you’re going to feel the same way soon enough. (E. Engineer with a major in math here)

Just listen to Ursan people, he knows his maths. FWIW though we don’t actually know what the drop chance is so unless the community gets together and collects a large enough data sample its all speculation. I’m not against RNG as a concept as such but I do believe it should have artificial upper and lower limits in place to prevent experiences like Kerrigans.

KerriganGR.2736:

18 lvl 10 now and no ring. Seriously???

i can confrim a have the same problem… still no ring after lvl10*6 lvl12*2 lvl14*2 no ring from daily chest

KerriganGR.2736:

I’m willing to bet that that law of probability doesn’t apply there. The chance is the same every time you run it.

After reading everyones complain of they X run with nothing or calculating what % they had…. Was wondering if I was going to read anyone mention how probability actually works thank you.

KerriganGR.2736:

Forget the math for gods sake. The system is completely broken. I was talking to a guy telling him how i did all those runs without a ring and he was and i quote: “what? I thought the ring was awarded as part of the daily!” Needless to say that guy was getting 1 ring for every run he did. Somehow, the chance if getting a ring for you is related to the chance of another guy getting the ring. There are players that get tons of rings and players that get nothing.

You not liking a system does not mean it is broken. From your above examples it seems like the RNG works pretty much how a RNG is supposed to work.
Some get incredibly lucky. Majority will have average luck and get it after some tries. Some will get incredibly unlucky and go start a thread about it where all the other unlucky people talk about it giving the illusion that its a broken system.

All I can contribute to this thread is that I despise this system and it goes against the manifesto in my opinion.

Thank you.

Ursan.7846:

Yes, you are correct. That is the chance of getting 10 rings in 10 chests.

But what about the probability of getting AT LEAST ONE RING from the 10 chests? That will the the 100% minus the probability of getting NO RINGS AT ALL, correct? The probability of getting NO RINGS AT ALL is 0.8^10 = 0.107. So the probability of getting AT LEAST ONE RING will be 1 – 0.107 = 0.89. 89%, essentially.

Sorry Ursan , you are right (im being sincere). The chance of me and other failing at the ascendant ring drop chance for so many continuous runs is indeed very rare.

I had the same bad luck in WoW, went thru entire firelands without raid level shoulders.

I just hate the RNG mechanic.

havoc.8569:

I think they said they’re working on it. My problem is they didn’t realize this would be an issue until after the backlash. It’s scary when devs are this out of touch. Doesn’t bode well for the future.

I so agree. Unlike other games, in MMOs there is a long term relationship between Devs and players. I typically don’t play games past 60 hrs, however i’ve played gw2 over 600 hrs now .The vision they have shown in starting zones is lost post lvl 80 .With each patch , I’m losing trust in the Devs.

I don’t think what I consider fun = what the Devs think is fun.

Case and point , the harpie knockback mechanic in higher lvl fractals. In who’s twisted opinion , is that mechanic fun.

I’m gonna go play farcry 3.

19 days with no ring. It’s become funny at this point to see which number i’m gonna reach…

yet again another night, with no ring drop, done level 10 and 12 again. Seriously 17-18 days every day doing 10 and 12, with no darn ring drop, what the hell is going on with this. My friend who also has never had a ring drop, actually got a ring drop tonight so at least one of us got something, but that is 68 fractal runs between the two of us to find ONE ring. What the hell is going on with this.

So if this keeps up, we can expect another 68 fractal runs to get one ring? because that is our current running average. So if we times that by four, as we both want two rings after all… 272 fractal daily’s for us both to get two rings each? Fantastic, thanks for that!

Every day I am getting more and more frustrated by this, I know I should not and just keep thinking oh well I am just unlucky, but its just not fun. In the future when you design these things please make more than one way to get the item, and for crying out loud add Healing primary ascended items too, why did they get left out?

Just did another daily, no ring. Good times to be had.

Yet another day, no ring.

The group I ran with all got one, except me.

Now I got thousands of tokens sit in my bank, excuse my language but who the kitten think it is funny to have it drop on RNG?

say hello to a-net trolling players via lol drop rates for something you need to progress…

Slowing progression through the use of RNG is nothing new in MMO’s. They used the token thing in the other dungeons and people sped through them in record time. They could have made Fractals a 10 boss dungeon and locked it for a week once you’d done it once. Maybe you’ve forgotten that other games slow progression down with that mechanic and RNG.

We don’t give a kitten about other games, son.

I dropped my first ascended ring after 20 tries. Joke’s on me it’s stats are worse than my exotic ones…