Guild Wars 2

Lately iam not getting any ascended box drops from t4 fractals. I have to get one like 20 days. Have they reduced the chance?Anyone knows?

It’s all Rng, nothing more nothing less. Take for example in 4 days I got 6 ascended boxes from PvP then nothing since that was months ago. I have only seen 3 ascended boxes drop from fractals.

Got nothing for about 7-9 days then 2 chests at once on Tuesday and a gloves chest yesterday. Like Blaque is saying: Completely random.

Hard to say, sometimes they make stealth changes but I think it’s just RNG at play. 20 days seems a bit longer than usual (most people get at least one chest every week or two) but this is not unheard of.

20 days is not in the unusual for 0 ascended boxes (probably about a 1% chance of it happening). Longer streaks are not uncommon.

As Jahroots says, people tend to get at least a couple a month of daily triple T4, but it’s random, so some people get much more and some people less.

you sure it’s random? it sure doesn’t feel like it anymore. the swamp updates appears to have been a hidden nerf. either that or… king kong bloomie stole my loots. since the swamp update, I have nothing but trash. i’ll stop playing in the swamp until people git gud and be able to keep up wit me. too hard to run 4 wisps solo.

same here.. I get nothing..

littlemunster.1059:

you sure it’s random?

Yes, still completely random, no nerf, no changes. Pure rng.

Yeah I’ve been at about 3 weeks with no ascended boxes as well, but I’ve gotten a few golden fractal skins instead. It’s all RNG, of course, but I agree that it feels bad. Would be nice if fractal relics worked the way of magnetite shards and could be used to buy guaranteed rewards over time.

littlemunster.1059:

you sure it’s random? it sure doesn’t feel like it anymore. the swamp updates appears to have been a hidden nerf. either that or… king kong bloomie stole my loots. since the swamp update, I have nothing but trash. i’ll stop playing in the swamp until people git gud and be able to keep up wit me. too hard to run 4 wisps solo.

It’s been 3 weeks since the swampland change; that’s not enough time to gather enough evidence. Start keeping track of your high end drops. If you go 50+ days (of 3x T4) without an ascended box, then we can start worrying about a rate change.

It seems to be extremely rare, but ascended boxes drop from T2 boxes as well.

I was surprised. I had gotten like 20 ascended boxes over the past howmany ever months from t3’s and t4’s , but never from a t2. Yesterday, I got ascended shoulders from a t2.

littlemunster.1059:

you sure it’s random? it sure doesn’t feel like it anymore. the swamp updates appears to have been a hidden nerf. either that or… king kong bloomie stole my loots. since the swamp update, I have nothing but trash. i’ll stop playing in the swamp until people git gud and be able to keep up wit me. too hard to run 4 wisps solo.

This is called being paranoid. There have been no confirmed nerfs to fractal drop rates. I wish people would stop making these threads already.

100% sure! I didn’t get anything again today. neither is other of team players. :o something is not right!

Got two in a single day last week

RNG is RNG put your tinfoil hat away

Update. Got a healers boots box, and coalforge wep chest yesterday.

Talindra.4958:

100% sure! I didn’t get anything again today. neither is other of team players. :o something is not right!

Start keeping track for at least a month’s worth of triple T4 days.

Alright, let’s do some math. Based on https://www.reddit.com/r/Guildwars2/comments/4nq4u3/opening_100_t4_fractal_chests/ let’s assume that you have a 4% chance of getting an ascended box from Master and Expert boxes. Let’s also assume you have a 1% chance from Adept. These are rough estimates, but the exact drop rate isn’t important.

This means that from doing all 3 T4s, the probability of not getting any ascended drops is (.96*.96*.99)^3 = (.9124)^3 = 0.7595 or about a 76% chance.

Thus the probability of not getting any ascended boxes for n days is (0.7595)^n.

One week: (0.7595)^7 = 0.1458 = 14.45%
One month: (0.7595)^30 = 0.0002605 = 0.026%

Chance of your entire party not getting anything on one day is (0.7595)^5 = 0.2527 = 25.27%

Like I said, these numbers aren’t exact because of the assumptions about drop rates, but you should still expect that about a quarter of days none of your party members will get an ascended box. About one in every 7 weeks you won’t get a box for the entire week.

Having no boxes for an entire month is very unlikely, but in a sample of 4000 people who do fractals every day, we would expect about 1 of them to encounter that.

If I did any of the math wrong please correct me; it has been a while since I took probability. Hopefully this gives some perspective on when people should actually start worrying about the drop rate being different.

Math is all very well & good (heck, it’s essential for this sort of thing), but people get confused by probability and argue about which formulas apply and when. So I took ’s data and ran some simulations.

I rolled random numbers for daily chests, assuming folks would open master/expert/adept/initiate together and run all T4 dailies. Sanity checks including checking whether the simulated drop rates matched KING’s numbers (they did). Each simulation covers 10,000 runs.

To simplify vocabulary, “ascended gear” here refers to getting an ascended weapon or armor chest of any sort, not rings (infused or not), amulets, or accessories.

I’ve posted about this in other threads and I offer this summary so you don’t have to find or read them.

• On average, people go a week without an ascended drop.
• The median is 5, meaning half of the time, running five days of dailies, we’ll get nothing.
• The worst bad luck streaks in 10,000 trials are over 45 days and 70 pops up often (that is: in some simulations of 10k, the worst is 45, in some it’s as high as 70; the longest streak is usually 60+).
• At least 20 of our bad luck streaks will last over a month, out of 10,000 trials.

Or in tl;dr form:

• The OP’s personal results are consistent with having luck so bad that it only happens 20 times over 10,000 days.
• However, that luck is not so bad to be evidence of a changed drop rate, because so many people run fractals that someone has to be the one having bad luck.

Or in even shorter form:
The OP is just really unlucky; RNG is random.

Update :

Just got an ascended Weapon Box from a t1 (initiate) chest today. A few days ago I got an armor chest from a t2. However for the months before this, I wasn’t getting anything from t1 or t2. So if anything I think they have improved the chance of ascended chests.

I do less fractals these days, probably average about 1 per day. I haven’t gotten an ascended chest in over a month. However, I got 3 golden skins. RNG is a kitten.

Ging.6485:

Update :

Just got an ascended Weapon Box from a t1 (initiate) chest today. A few days ago I got an armor chest from a t2. However for the months before this, I wasn’t getting anything from t1 or t2. So if anything I think they have improved the chance of ascended chests.

That’s not anything close to evidence that the rate has changed. I mean, it’s nice that your argument is that it’s improved whereas most people only mention the rate if they think it’s gone down. But you really need a lot more data. The combined drop rate from Adept & Initiate chests is less than half of that for expert alone and less than a third of the Master’s. Getting a single lucky drop from adept/initiate is going to change our perception of the rate, unless there’s a lot more than a month or three of data.

Illconceived Was Na.9781:

Ging.6485:

Update :

Just got an ascended Weapon Box from a t1 (initiate) chest today. A few days ago I got an armor chest from a t2. However for the months before this, I wasn’t getting anything from t1 or t2. So if anything I think they have improved the chance of ascended chests.

That’s not anything close to evidence that the rate has changed. I mean, it’s nice that your argument is that it’s improved whereas most people only mention the rate if they think it’s gone down. But you really need a lot more data. The combined drop rate from Adept & Initiate chests is less than half of that for expert alone and less than a third of the Master’s. Getting a single lucky drop from adept/initiate is going to change our perception of the rate, unless there’s a lot more than a month or three of data.

My point was, I thought it was impossible before. I thought that t1’s and t2’s didn’t drop ascended boxes at all.

To me, finding out that it isn’t 0% was a big deal.

Ging.6485:

Illconceived Was Na.9781:

Ging.6485:

Update :

Just got an ascended Weapon Box from a t1 (initiate) chest today. A few days ago I got an armor chest from a t2. However for the months before this, I wasn’t getting anything from t1 or t2. So if anything I think they have improved the chance of ascended chests.

That’s not anything close to evidence that the rate has changed. I mean, it’s nice that your argument is that it’s improved whereas most people only mention the rate if they think it’s gone down. But you really need a lot more data. The combined drop rate from Adept & Initiate chests is less than half of that for expert alone and less than a third of the Master’s. Getting a single lucky drop from adept/initiate is going to change our perception of the rate, unless there’s a lot more than a month or three of data.

My point was, I thought it was impossible before. I thought that t1’s and t2’s didn’t drop ascended boxes at all.

To me, finding out that it isn’t 0% was a big deal.

Ah, I completely misunderstood then, probably because I’ve been looking at drop rate data, which shows it to be non-zero. I apologize: I shouldn’t have presumed that everyone has seen it.

And besides that: gz on your acquisition. It’s a good drop no matter where you get it.

Yes. The drop rates have been changed/lowered.
Of course Anet will not admit.

Deepcuts.9740:

Yes. The drop rates have been changed/lowered.
Of course Anet will not admit.

I love when people make general statements without backup and without reading any of the previous posts in the thread. </sarcasm>

Anet does change drop rates from time to time, but they usually say something about it and their reasoning behind it. There just is not sufficient evidence that drop rates have changed at this time.

Deepcuts.9740:

Yes. The drop rates have been changed/lowered.
Of course Anet will not admit.

Actually, they frankly told us with the recent patch that no reward change has been made.

Of course it’s on you to believe it or not with your tinfoil hat.

Yeah I also have a feeling the drop chances are nerfed. Could be RNG though but I doubt it. Personally I haven’t seen a chest in a while nor have I seen people linking chests that often in guild chat or my fractal party after we are done.

And here we go again: “Feeling”

The last 8 days there has been at least one player in my groups who got a chest. So, nothing was nerfed.

its not because you know 1 guys who have get an ascended chest that want mean there are no nerf.
I know guys who have more precursor than i get ascended too
that should mean there anet give more precursor than ascended ?? :o
you see , Vinceman , your argument does not hold water.

you know 1 guys who have get 1 ascended so you think there are no nerf , so what ?
there are nerf only if nobody get ascended anymore ? whats the logic ?
Nerf want say there are less ascended , not mean there are not anymore.

Dude, you haven’t understood my post. It’s all about “feelings” here until you do a statistical analysis with profound sample size.

First, we have a simulation of Illconceived Was Na considering the numbers of the guild KING. These numbers are the best we have. Maybe people should read and understand what he was writing in this and another threads of this subforum. It was shown that all numbers of the responders in this thread and furthermore are within the range of the simulation.

Secondly, Anet has stated with the last patch that no changes were made and they have no plans to adjust fractal rewards in the near future. It’s just not on the table. Everything far from this that players are telling is familiar with conspiracy theories.

Thirdly, if you personally have bad luck it means nothing. It’s not directed to you Zem because you haven’t written anything about lowered rewards so far in this thread. It’s directed to all the other single people with their “feelings”.

I have a guild mate who got the Permanent Trading Post Express Contract + the precursor Dusk within days without gambling – only playing. Not two weeks later he raided 3 bosses and got an asc leg chest from Gorse and and asc item from KC while another buddy got nothing during this time and played a lot more + a lot more content with high chances of rewards a.k.a. fractals & raids + buying lion chest keys.
All I want to say is: It’s pure randomness and the earlier you accept this as a player the more pleased you are.

Zem.4139:

its not because you know 1 guys who have get an ascended chest that want mean there are no nerf.
I know guys who have more precursor than i get ascended too
that should mean there anet give more precursor than ascended ?? :o
you see , Vinceman , your argument does not hold water.

you know 1 guys who have get 1 ascended so you think there are no nerf , so what ?
there are nerf only if nobody get ascended anymore ? whats the logic ?
Nerf want say there are less ascended , not mean there are not anymore.

The burden of proof is on those who claim that the drop rate changed. They haven’t provided sufficient data to demonstrate the possibility of a change. As you say, “it’s not because you know one guy”.

Each person here (and in every other thread on the topic) that has reported personal results has had drops that are consistent with the previously established drop rates.

If anyone is personally convinced that the drop rate has changed (up or down), I am available to help them figure out to (a) collect their own data and (b) collate it with others doing the same. Once they have sufficient data, I can also show them what sorts of calculations to make to demonstrate a change (if there was one).

Alternatively, if someone would like to run their own simulation, I can help with that.

The short story remains:

• There’s no evidence that there’s been a rate change.
• All individually reported results have been consistent with the original T4 daily drop rate data collected by [KING]

my drops rates first 4 months after HoT came out was massively bad (0 ascended, much more before, almost 1 a week). Starting then till now i steadely have gotten aprox 5 ascended chests (can be a little more).

Pure rng it seems. In the bad period i suspected lowered drop rates too, but this last weeks, prove otherwise.

some of my mates keep dropping stuff every 2nd day, with 2 weaponchests and stuff like that. happend now like 3 times in 4 weeks to differend players in our group (and they keep on dropping stuff while i get nothing x.x).

so yeah, completly random…maybe u need a luck account. :P

Anecdotal evidence is not statistical proof. Also, many people seem to mistaken probability as absolutes that a 1 out of 10 chance means that if they try 10 times, they are assured to get the item once. It is not true.

The only people who can say definitively is the developers. What we can do is analyze a tiny sample size of the player base and say that maybe a decrease in drop rate, but regardless of the amount of data we manage to gather, it is just a tiny portion of the overall number of players.

RNG is RNG. OP probably just had some bad luck.

Talking about a nerf in fractals while looking at armor ascended boxes general drop rate isnt good. You have to focus on drop quality.

In my case did 124 complete runs since 19/04 patch and i got armor wise :
Shoulders : 6
Boots : 4
Gloves : 3
Helmets : 2
Legs : 2
Chest : 0

Since 19/04 fractals didnt gave me a complete ascended set which is a huge nerf comparing to pre-patch situation.

Red Daing.7804:

Talking about a nerf in fractals while looking at armor ascended boxes general drop rate isnt good. You have to focus on drop quality.

In my case did 124 complete runs since 19/04 patch and i got armor wise :
Shoulders : 6
Boots : 4
Gloves : 3
Helmets : 2
Legs : 2
Chest : 0

Since 19/04 fractals didnt gave me a complete ascended set which is a huge nerf comparing to pre-patch situation.

You got 17 ascended armor boxes; that’s not enough data to draw conclusions. If the odds are even of getting each type, there’s about a 4.5% chance of not getting a chest piece, which is hardly even ‘bad’ luck when it comes to drops. If chest drops are less frequent than any other type (which seems likely), then it’s even less surprisingly that you wouldn’t get a chest drop out of only 17 boxes.

More significantly, you had 124 “full runs” which amounts to ~4.5% drop rate for ascended armor per run, which is low compared to KING’s data.

To complete, i’ll have to add 9 weapon boxes. Total ascended drops : 26 for 1488 chests (T1+T2+T3+T4).

Total : 20,9% chances to have an ascended drop during one daily run. Seems pretty online with KING imo. Regarding pre-patch situation and quality wise pov it’s a huge nerf.

It’s much more difficult to have a complete set now than pre-patch. That was my only point.

Edit : And according to Anet, odds arent even. Some pieces of armor drop more frequently than others.

Red Daing again with some more wrong declarations. But hey, it’s hard to convince someone who is totally showing bias against facts.

1. It’s easier to get asc drops than pre HoT. That’s a fact that cannot be denied.
“Ascended drops were actually increased significantly in the 26-50 range, and while they’re slightly lower in the 51-75 range, the addition of the 76-100 tier means the overall chance of getting Ascended from your dailies is a lot better!”

+ don’t forget T7 materials + more gold —> money & materials to craft the missing pieces faster than ever before!

2. To have a complete set is easier as it was before. We also got gloves, boots and shoulders more often pre HoT. The drop rates of armor parts weren’t even pre-patch!
Also:
“It is pseudo-intended pieces with less stats(gloves/boots/shoulders) to be more common than the ones with the most stats(coats/leggings) but the rates were skewed further than they should be. As a result we brought them closer together this patch.”

Citations from April 19, 2016 – GW2 Spring Quarterly Update Reddit AMA

I gave you facts and numbers. My facts and my numbers are not “wrong”, they’re just facts and numbers. You can consider 1488 chest as a small amount and 4 months as a short period but regarding to my numbers fractal drop is nerfed

Instead of giving statements, gimme facts and numbers to prove me wrong. And btw, rates could still be bugged. Would not surprise me….

You didn’t give us “facts”, you gave us your numbers and a very subjective impression/opinion.
You prove nothing with that but on the other hand you agreed that your numbers are completely comparable with KINGs data. Just saying: WTH?
Everything is fine!
And I repeat the Anet statement:
“It is pseudo-intended pieces with less stats(gloves/boots/shoulders) to be more common than the ones with the most stats(coats/leggings) but the rates were skewed further than they should be. As a result we brought them closer together this patch.”

So, it’s easier to get a complete set now but as Illconceived Was Na was stating. It’s not unsual that you don’t get a full set with these numbers. I rather call your full set drop within 4 months pre-patch very luckily and while you were lucky others were not.

In the end fact is: It’s easier to get asc stuff now. It’s easier to get a complete set now too because adjustment of drop rates +T7 materials + huge amount of gold per run. The crafting process was simplified a lot as an additional thing.
The average player is better off now than before HoT. If that doesn’t count for you, what a pity. Karma is a bxtch.

Red Daing.7804:

I gave you facts and numbers. My facts and my numbers are not “wrong”, they’re just facts and numbers. You can consider 1488 chest as a small amount and 4 months as a short period but regarding to my numbers fractal drop is nerfed

Instead of giving statements, gimme facts and numbers to prove me wrong. And btw, rates could still be bugged. Would not surprise me….

Your numbers don’t support your conclusions.

• You have data for after the mechanics changes, but none from before.
• The data you do have isn’t sufficient to show the differential drop rate from the different types of armor. You have no torso pieces and only two of some — getting just one more ascended armor container would make a significant difference in the comparison.
• You’ve asserted that prior to current four-chests-for-one-T4 rewards people used to get full sets. Actually, we used to get a container that allowed you to choose the piece (but not the prefix); those still drop. As before, they drop less frequently than the ones that allow a choice of prefix (but not the choice of piece).

The evidence provided by KING clearly shows that we get more ascended drops now from doing dailies than we used to. (The old master’s chest had a better drop rate, but now we get that plus three other chests, and all for completing just a single instance.)