Guild Wars 2

there is something weird, every single fractal run i do i get this fractal.
what the probability to have this one in every single run? if arena want to run this fractal every time they are going to kill all the fractal fun

RNG is RNG.

ect.

be glad you didn’t get dredge.

Maybe the are trying to better prepare people to fight lupi since there are so many OMGz Lupi is so HARD!! please nerf now!!! threads. I usually hope to get this one since it has the best fractal boss in it and it isn’t that long. Fractals would be improved if they put this in every run and just rid of the dredge one or just replace half of it with that guy saying No No No a few times.

roll a guardian or mesmer stop QQ

shaman is one of my favourite ones

I have this thing, whenever I think in my head before the screen loads like " Ugh, dredge" or “….LAVA BIRD” it always is. Its like it seals the fate. anyone else have this

One of my favorite fights in the game, great feeling while fighting him….epic.

Flame shaman is one of the best bosses. Decently challenging and requires skill, effective dodging and team-work.

Hicci.8761:

Flame shaman is one of the best bosses. Decently challenging and requires skill, effective dodging and team-work.

reasonably fast fractal too.

Nerf shaman bash, too stronk.

Shaman is not hard.

I’ve shown this before, but statistically speaking, the chance of getting a specific fractal in any given run is:

(1/8) + (7/8 * 1/7) + (7/8 * 6/7 * 1/6) = 0.375 = 37.5%

So, in essence, the chance of seeing any given fractal of the 8 available (not including the jade ocean, which is the 9th) is over 1 in 3. That should hopefully show you that what you are seeing “I always seem to get this one fractal!” is actually not that unlikely.

I wouldn’t mind if it was bit less anti-melee (or more anti-ranged). As a ranged you can just keep zig-zagging, as a melee you need to constantly dodge lethal attacks.

In my opinion, having a good player melee the boss is great to keep him spamming those lethal PBAOE skills and not shooting his arrows at players. I don’t recommend such a job on high level fractals to anyone not particularly skilled at meleeing otherwise immensely perilous bosses, but if you’re good at it, Godspeed and I’d run with you any day.

Rising Dusk.2408:

I’ve shown this before, but statistically speaking, the chance of getting a specific fractal in any given run is:

(1/8) + (7/8 * 1/7) + (7/8 * 6/7 * 1/6) = 0.375 = 37.5%

So, in essence, the chance of seeing any given fractal of the 8 available (not including the jade ocean, which is the 9th) is over 1 in 3. That should hopefully show you that what you are seeing “I always seem to get this one fractal!” is actually not that unlikely.

You could just have said that 3 fractals out of 8 make 37.5%.

But given that most players choose a specific first fractal it’s more like 2 out of 7.

Can’t you just zig-zag all arrows when at range?

Just keep pressing ‘a’ and randomly press ‘d’ from time to time (or reverse that).

timecookie.8570:

You could just have said that 3 fractals out of 8 make 37.5%.

Technically it’s not “3 out of 8”, though, because the one you finish first is removed for your next choice. So really, it is closer to “1 in 8, then 1 in 7, then 1 in 6”, but the correct math shows that numerically the chances are, conveniently, equal to 3 in 8. I specified the expanded math because it is technically more correct and being an engineer, I was compelled to do so.

Wethospu.6437:

Can’t you just zig-zag all arrows when at range?

Yes, but depending on when he fires in your zig-zag he can still hit you. You also can never guarantee the quality of player you get in a public group, so the fewer arrows a player has to dodge, the better.

You got 8 cards from Ace to 8.
Pick 1 of them. Chances you got the Ace are 12.5%.
Pick 2 of them. Chances you got the Ace are 25%.
Pick 3 of them. Chances you got the Shaman are 37.5%.
Pick 4 of them. Chances you got the Ace are 50%.
Pick 5 of them. Chances you got the Ace are 62.5%.
Pick 6 of them. Chances you got the Ace are 75%.
Pick 7 of them. Chances you got the Ace are 87.5%.
Pick 8 of them. Chances you got the Ace are 100%.
Trust me I am a magician.

Yes, it’s amazing how two derivations of the same thing result in the same conclusion. It’s good to know that math works; thanks for your insight.

This is why

You could just have said that 3 fractals out of 8 make 37.5%.

It’s like saying that 2 is 53-53+2 rather than 1+1.

There is a reason why, when teaching a class, a good teacher often teaches the harder, more thorough, derivation first, and then the shortcut after. The longer derivation is informative as to why the shorter derivation makes sense. Your analogy is off-base. Anyway, I’m not about to argue this any longer with someone on the internet; it is off-topic and irrelevant. Have a good day.