Guild Wars 2

I think that was my point exactly, thanks RoRo.

Ayrilana.1396:

Just because I flip a coin and get heads 100 times in a row doesn’t mean that I’m inherently lucky.

Can you prove this? :P

Ayrilana.1396:

morrolan.9608:

Ayrilana.1396:

Just to add clarification that no account is luckier than another in the sense that there’s no hidden internal modifier that influences whether they are lucky or not. Every account has the same probability of getting a precursor just like every other one.

How can you say that with such certainty? And I don’t mean anything deliberate I mean it could be something unforeseen. Look how long they took to find the original rng bug years ago.

Anet has stated it as being such either late last year or earlier this year.

Anet swore there wasn’t a problem with loot drops in early 2013, even going so far as to poke fun at those making the claims, and were later proven to be wrong.

Over 6k hours the last time I checked. No precursors, but I haven’t been dumping weapons in the MF either.

Khristophoros.7194:

Ayrilana.1396:

Just because I flip a coin and get heads 100 times in a row doesn’t mean that I’m inherently lucky.

Can you prove this? :P

I’ve learned better than to explain things that require some knowledge or the subject for someone to understand. Not saying that you don’t know but just in general.

morrolan.9608:

Ayrilana.1396:

morrolan.9608:

Ayrilana.1396:

Just to add clarification that no account is luckier than another in the sense that there’s no hidden internal modifier that influences whether they are lucky or not. Every account has the same probability of getting a precursor just like every other one.

How can you say that with such certainty? And I don’t mean anything deliberate I mean it could be something unforeseen. Look how long they took to find the original rng bug years ago.

Anet has stated it as being such either late last year or earlier this year.

Anet swore there wasn’t a problem with loot drops in early 2013, even going so far as to poke fun at those making the claims, and were later proven to be wrong.

Oh but of course. One instance of there being a problem means that doubt can be spread on anything. This isn’t the first time that this has been brought up and they’ve checked and verified that it’s working as intended. A general understanding of probability would show that it is.

Khristophoros.7194:

Is that strange? I always kinda assumed I would never find one.

You have a better chance winning the lottery in real life than wait for it to drop as a loot. Try using the Mystic Toilet.

hunt veterans in WvW. i got a Dusk from them. yesterday my guildie got a Dawn. not long ago, an ally guildie got The Legend. i know, i know, rng. yeah, yeah.

Food for thought.

A while ago, a poster posted the results of opening ~11,800 champ bags. He had one Asc. armor drop. That’s a drop rate of 85/10,000 of a percent. In 2722 hours I’ve gotten 1 Asc. armor, 0 precursors.

OK, at that low rate, it’s entirely possible that the precursor drop rate is higher than that for Asc., maybe even much higher. I presume the rate in the MT has to be higher, or no one would waste so many rares/so much gold. However, it’s enlightening to know that drop rates in that range even exist.

IndigoSundown.5419:

Food for thought.

A while ago, a poster posted the results of opening ~11,800 champ bags. He had one Asc. armor drop. That’s a drop rate of 85/10,000 of a percent. In 2722 hours I’ve gotten 1 Asc. armor, 0 precursors.

OK, at that low rate, it’s entirely possible that the precursor drop rate is higher than that for Asc., maybe even much higher. I presume the rate in the MT has to be higher, or no one would waste so many rares/so much gold. However, it’s enlightening to know that drop rates in that range even exist.

Keep in mind it merely took him that many to get ONE ascended box. It could take him 1/10th as many to get the second, or 10 times as many to get the third. It’s also discounting where among that number he got the ascended chest. Hardly a viable set of data to determine the real drop rate. It is, however, a good snapshot of his rng at the time.

I’m tired of people posting complaints about not getting a precursor and also people posting the inevitable ’you don’t understand rng’ response. I’m also guilty of complaining and posted something similar about a year ago. To clarify, I have 3.6K+ hours game time and have never had a precursor from any source, neither do I expect to get one. I have learned not to expect any valuable drop as I never ever get one. I also regularly see guildies get lots of good stuff.

I believe what I see and not convoluted arguments backed up by vaguely insulting or condescending comments. I believe the rng system is either broken or weighted in that upon creation or via a cumulative set of circumstances, an account can be slightly luckier than others.

I have learned to accept that fact and now I simply sigh and type ’grats’ when I see a guildie getting their second or third precursor drop. My hope is now fixed upon precursor crafting in that I hope it’s no more involved than making Mawdrey II.

TL;DR If you haven’t got a precursor drop yet then accept you probably never will and move on.

Spirited Was Eceni.3869:

My hope is now fixed upon precursor crafting in that I hope it’s no more involved than making Mawdrey II.

TL;DR If you haven’t got a precursor drop yet then accept you probably never will and move on.

You can bet that it WILL be worst than Mawdrey II. In fact, I am willing to be that you will be gated more than 21 days that is takes to make Mawdrey II (if you don’t buy from TP the components). 21 days as in the 7 food items you need to craft 3 times (3×7 days). Not including the time you collect the mats needed for it.

I agree with you. If your character has never gotten a pre-cursor after so long, you will never get it. Either make another character, or just forget about getting one with the current char you have.

Is not the main source of precursors the mystic forge. I haven’t had one drop but had 5 out the mystic forge in 2.5k hrs.

Just 2786h? Pffft…. funny guy.

Like others have said, 7K hours (6,969 precisely), zero precursors. RNGesus hates me. LOL Have all gifts for the one I want made awhile ago. Hopefully, with HoT I can get it done.

eldrin.6471:

Is not the main source of precursors the mystic forge. I haven’t had one drop but had 5 out the mystic forge in 2.5k hrs.

^

Truthfully the MF seems to be the main intended source of precursors as it’s used to remove excess rare weapons from the economy and help keep prices for rares high that way. If there wasn’t this sink, the prices for rares and ectos would drop. This means that precursor drops from mobs is intentionally low and it’s not realistic to expect to ever see one from gameplay.

165 hours played and got Dusk. Only have 30% map completition -_-.

1800 hrs, no precursor drop. At the 1000 hr mark I stopped crying and decided to spend my time making gold to buy a precursor. I have now crafted both Twilight and Meteorlogicus.

For as long as MMOs have had the RNG system, I’ve had to contend with the fact that I never, ever, in all my life, have gotten something that was significantly “rare” enough to warrant special mention. I’ve been playing these games for12 years now. And in these 12 years I’ve learned why it is that the lottery is called a stupid people tax..

#1: You aren’t going to get a precursor. Period. All the money you throw at trying to get one is figuratively going down the toilet.

#2: If you can’t measure your progress, it means you can’t make any progress. You are no closer to getting a precursor today then you were at launch. No amount of playtime or money spent entitles you to miracles.

#3: Luck is for other people. It may seem like it is for everyone, but that is because whenever someone is lucky they shout it to the skies. For every person who is lucky, there are tens of thousands who aren’t.

#4: Hard work is for you. It is much more profitable to sell and merch goods for trading than it is to buy and burn them hoping common sense is wrong. Take advantage of the fact that you can make money off of other people playing the lottery.

#5: Don’t even try to get one. It is a waste of time, money, effort, and hope. The sooner you accept failure, the sooner you can get over it and do something productive.

10.672 hours. With speedrunning and champ training and all the goodies.

No precursor.

cough

Blood Red Arachnid.2493:

For as long as MMOs have had the RNG system, I’ve had to contend with the fact that I never, ever, in all my life, have gotten something that was significantly “rare” enough to warrant special mention. I’ve been playing these games for12 years now. And in these 12 years I’ve learned why it is that the lottery is called a stupid people tax..

#1: You aren’t going to get a precursor. Period. All the money you throw at trying to get one is figuratively going down the toilet.

#2: If you can’t measure your progress, it means you can’t make any progress. You are no closer to getting a precursor today then you were at launch. No amount of playtime or money spent entitles you to miracles.

#3: Luck is for other people. It may seem like it is for everyone, but that is because whenever someone is lucky they shout it to the skies. For every person who is lucky, there are tens of thousands who aren’t.

#4: Hard work is for you. It is much more profitable to sell and merch goods for trading than it is to buy and burn them hoping common sense is wrong. Take advantage of the fact that you can make money off of other people playing the lottery.

#5: Don’t even try to get one. It is a waste of time, money, effort, and hope. The sooner you accept failure, the sooner you can get over it and do something productive.

+1 with a particular like for point #2.

Girl in my guild had 9.4k hours with nothing to show.

I know! 9.4k hours!

6800 and no pre .. so where is your problem ? ^^

I got my first at around 4k hours from WvW, and got my next two in around 600 hours after that. That includes about 1.5k g wasted in forge without getting anything from there

dont bother mentioning bout precursor, havent even get a single ascended chest before..

Basandra Skye.4031:

IndigoSundown.5419:

Food for thought.

A while ago, a poster posted the results of opening ~11,800 champ bags. He had one Asc. armor drop. That’s a drop rate of 85/10,000 of a percent. In 2722 hours I’ve gotten 1 Asc. armor, 0 precursors.

OK, at that low rate, it’s entirely possible that the precursor drop rate is higher than that for Asc., maybe even much higher. I presume the rate in the MT has to be higher, or no one would waste so many rares/so much gold. However, it’s enlightening to know that drop rates in that range even exist.

Keep in mind it merely took him that many to get ONE ascended box. It could take him 1/10th as many to get the second, or 10 times as many to get the third. It’s also discounting where among that number he got the ascended chest. Hardly a viable set of data to determine the real drop rate. It is, however, a good snapshot of his rng at the time.

11,800 is a pretty large sample size. Also, where in the sample the single occurrence took place is not relevant to whether the sample size is sufficient to generate confidence. Feel free to offer other examples of similar size with different results, if you can find them and if you really want to have that conversation.

It’s also food for thought to consider that, if a similarly sized sample produced 10x the drops (the outcome if it took 1/10 the bags to get 1), the drop rate would change from 85/10,000 for a percent to 85/1,000 of a percent. While that is a higher drop rate, it would still be considered to be abysmal by many players.

Khristophoros.7194:

Is that strange? I always kinda assumed I would never find one.

Yeah i’m in the same boat as you. I don’t wanna buy one. I want to find one. I went to world bosses day after day, farmed cursed shore, stacks and stacks of bags, people around me getting precursors. Me, just the bags.

+1200 hours here. Got Storm from my Star of Gratitude. First pre ever. I wanted just one drop for the principle of it. I also know a person that got zap from one of the random world chests that you can find those map scraps from. I guess you can get precursors from the most unlikely locations. I always figured I’d get one from a world boss, champ bag, or forge if I was ever lucky enough.

Spirited Was Eceni.3869:

I believe the rng system is either broken or weighted in that upon creation or via a cumulative set of circumstances, an account can be slightly luckier than others.

I hear Anet’s selling tinfoil hats on the gemstore that come with a free dose of a dev telling you that this god kitten ed tired argument is completely false.

IndigoSundown.5419:

It’s also food for thought to consider that, if a similarly sized sample produced 10x the drops (the outcome if it took 1/10 the bags to get 1), the drop rate would change from 85/10,000 for a percent to 85/1,000 of a percent. While that is a higher drop rate, it would still be considered to be abysmal by many players.

An estimated drop rate, as RNG being RNG, it IS prone to streaks. While the odds of it would be low, it’s still enough of a likelihood to reduce something from being just short of a concrete number to being merely an estimate. Anet stating a confirmation is what takes it from theory to proven.

Not to mention, it DOES matter how many it took before he got it. Was it 100? 200? 3000? That number’s the real benchmark for an estimated drop rate, not the “I opened X in all, and got Y” number you’re going off.

Khristophoros.7194:

Is that strange? I always kinda assumed I would never find one.

2786 Lottery Tickets, 0 Jackpots

Is that strange? I always kinda assumed I would never win.

about 4900hrs – 0 pre

6,800+ hours. One “Rage” drop 6 months after the game launched. no big deal.

Doesn’t this ‘bad precursor drop’ luck go away when HoT brings with it the ‘guaranteed’ method of obtaining a precursor for your account?

While I’m at it… 4014 hours, 1051 days… 0 precursors. I had to buy mine off the TP.

On this topic, how cool would it be if they made it so that your chances of getting a precursor went up the longer you went without getting one. Like a magic find bonus exclusive to precursors that increases over time until you get one.

zapv.8051:

On this topic, how cool would it be if they made it so that your chances of getting a precursor went up the longer you went without getting one. Like a magic find bonus exclusive to precursors that increases over time until you get one.

I’m not sure sure that that would be a great idea either.

“Congratulations! You have played 10,000 hours and now you get your free precursor! By random selection you get a……. Carcharias! It’s worth 87 gold and after 10,000 more hours you’ll get another precursor, randomly chosen. Enjoy!”

Khristophoros.7194:

Is that strange? I always kinda assumed I would never find one.

dude don’t cry about it….i’ve been here since headstart, have over 8k+ hrs( of barely any afk time….done it all WvW zerging,roaming,gvgs….Dungeon speedclears,FOTM 50s, silverswastes/cursed shore/karka/dtop farming….pvp 3000 ranked games….almost 26k achivements…..lvl 80 of each class….

0 Precursors….neither drops or MF(stopped using MF after spending approx 1k gold on it)….and i’m not crying about it, thats life….Even made 5 revenenants cuz of the hype MF buff….to mix there exotic gear…no bueno….not even in beta servers…GG.

If you played more than 1k hours you should have been able to easily afford one from the TP.

Stupidity is not an excuse you drop on bad luck.

That’s rude ! >:[

Slapinator.4196:

That’s rude ! >:[

The truth is never pleasant, I just stated the facts…

My account is 624 days old(I’ve been away for work roughly 354 days), I played 697 hours…I got enough gold to craft Sunrise anytime I want. Tho I’d rather stare at a wall all day rather than achieve 100% map completion…

Liisjak.4509:

Slapinator.4196:

That’s rude ! >:[

The truth is never pleasant, I just stated the facts…

Firstly, you stated the facts in a rude way, which there was no need for.

Secondly, they are not facts. Just your opinion, which you expressed rather rudely, which there was no need for.

penelopehannibal.8947:

Liisjak.4509:

Slapinator.4196:

That’s rude ! >:[

The truth is never pleasant, I just stated the facts…

Firstly, you stated the facts in a rude way, which there was no need for.

Secondly, they are not facts. Just your opinion, which you expressed rather rudely, which there was no need for.

I’m sorry I haven’t realized we poop rainbows.
You call it rude, I call it truth.

Making poor choices and then blaming Zammoros or the RNG god, is just…sad.
It almost sounds like they’re entiteled to a precursor drop. In the end it’s just plain and simple…luck, like the bloody lottery, but you don’t see people on the street with signs and I don’t know what, crying about how they couldn’t build a house cause they haven’t won.

On the other hand, you could save up a couple weeks and buy it off the TP, which is a fact.

If you feel offended by what I wrote…good.

Liisjak.4509:

penelopehannibal.8947:

Liisjak.4509:

Slapinator.4196:

That’s rude ! >:[

The truth is never pleasant, I just stated the facts…

Firstly, you stated the facts in a rude way, which there was no need for.

Secondly, they are not facts. Just your opinion, which you expressed rather rudely, which there was no need for.

I’m sorry I haven’t realized we poop rainbows.
You call it rude, I call it truth.

Making poor choices and then blaming Zammoros or the RNG god, is just…sad.
It almost sounds like they’re entiteled to a precursor drop. In the end it’s just plain and simple…luck, like the bloody lottery, but you don’t see people on the street with signs and I don’t know what, crying about how they couldn’t build a house cause they haven’t won.

On the other hand, you could save up a couple weeks and buy it off the TP, which is a fact.

If you feel offended by what I wrote…good.

I really wish you the best of luck in life. You’re going to need it.

Liisjak.4509:

On the other hand, you could save up a couple weeks and buy it off the TP, which is a fact.

Inquiring minds wish to know your method of making 700g+ a week. Unless it’s playing the TP market, because I already do that for work and would sooner invest in Greek bonds than have to do that for “fun” as well.

The number of hours played doesn’t tell us very much about your chance to get a precursor.

• A friend goes AFK instead of exiting the game. Their /age is significantly greater than their actual time spent playing.
• Another friend has inventory management issues. Their /age includes a large fraction spent at the bank.
• One player I knew played 2k hours (almost) exclusively doing dungeons. That means: very, very few foes killed for the time spent.
• Another friend loves leveling up characters, so has spent a considerable fraction of time with characters below 80, and thus without any chance of getting a pre.

Telling us how many hours you play isn’t enough; it’s also important to describe how most of your time was spent (something we humans are notoriously bad about tracking).

IndigoSundown.5419:

Basandra Skye.4031:

IndigoSundown.5419:

Food for thought.

A while ago, a poster posted the results of opening ~11,800 champ bags. He had one Asc. armor drop. That’s a drop rate of 85/10,000 of a percent. In 2722 hours I’ve gotten 1 Asc. armor, 0 precursors.

OK, at that low rate, it’s entirely possible that the precursor drop rate is higher than that for Asc., maybe even much higher. I presume the rate in the MT has to be higher, or no one would waste so many rares/so much gold. However, it’s enlightening to know that drop rates in that range even exist.

Keep in mind it merely took him that many to get ONE ascended box. It could take him 1/10th as many to get the second, or 10 times as many to get the third. It’s also discounting where among that number he got the ascended chest. Hardly a viable set of data to determine the real drop rate. It is, however, a good snapshot of his rng at the time.

11,800 is a pretty large sample size. Also, where in the sample the single occurrence took place is not relevant to whether the sample size is sufficient to generate confidence. Feel free to offer other examples of similar size with different results, if you can find them and if you really want to have that conversation.

It’s also food for thought to consider that, if a similarly sized sample produced 10x the drops (the outcome if it took 1/10 the bags to get 1), the drop rate would change from 85/10,000 for a percent to 85/1,000 of a percent. While that is a higher drop rate, it would still be considered to be abysmal by many players.

I’d just like to point out that 1/11800 is equal to 0.85/10000 or a 0.000085% chance and this is for an ascended chest (which probably has a higher drop rate than a precursor), not 85/10000. So even at 10x miracle drop rate we’re still looking at 8.5/10000 or 0.00085%. Both are abysmally low rates and after seeing those numbers only cemented my decision to never bother with looting ascended gear or precursors. That’s 85ppm for crying out loud (out of 1 million chests, 85 are ascended) I’m likely not going to see 10,000 chests in 6 years of my casual playing since I care more about the progression of the story than the gaudy bling the game offers. Ideally, however, the person who did that test should do it ten more times, or have ten other people repeat it (peer review), to have a defensible drop rate.

Anyone complaining that they have x hours played and still no pre drop was under the mistaken impression that they had a reasonable chance of ever getting one to drop.

How many people here have played WoW? Did you ever have a bind on equip epic drop for you out in the open world? I never did. And I never expected to. It’s the same with precursors. If you expect to, don’t. It’s like expecting to win the lottery.

Almost 2k hours, 12 precursors. All from MF

Shufflepants.9785:

Anyone complaining that they have x hours played and still no pre drop was under the mistaken impression that they had a reasonable chance of ever getting one to drop.

How many people here have played WoW? Did you ever have a bind on equip epic drop for you out in the open world? I never did. And I never expected to. It’s the same with precursors. If you expect to, don’t. It’s like expecting to win the lottery.

More like there’s no direct correlation between hours played and precursor drops.

Pandaman.4758:

Liisjak.4509:

On the other hand, you could save up a couple weeks and buy it off the TP, which is a fact.

Inquiring minds wish to know your method of making 700g+ a week. Unless it’s playing the TP market, because I already do that for work and would sooner invest in Greek bonds than have to do that for “fun” as well.

I didn’t say 700/week, and I didn’t say playing with the TP. It’s just plain and simple farming, converting kitten you get into gold. If you really want that precursor you can farm it in a couple of weeks or 1 month, but if you’re a gambling junkie that’s another thing.

Therefore let’s not blame RNG for poor decisions that people made. Say you take into consideration 3000 hours, if you had pure profit of half gold per hour, you could easily buy a precursor and craft a legendary. But, we all know the estimate of gold per hour is much higher, so I guess it’s easier to blame the RNG than to admit that you threw your legendary into the toilette a long time ago.

Ayrilana.1396:

Shufflepants.9785:

Anyone complaining that they have x hours played and still no pre drop was under the mistaken impression that they had a reasonable chance of ever getting one to drop.

How many people here have played WoW? Did you ever have a bind on equip epic drop for you out in the open world? I never did. And I never expected to. It’s the same with precursors. If you expect to, don’t. It’s like expecting to win the lottery.

More like there’s no direct correlation between hours played and precursor drops.

In a strictly theoretical long term sense, there is a correlation between hours played and number of precursor drops, but because the drop rate is so low, the correlation is hard to see. For it to become readily evident on your own account, you’d need to play for hundreds of thousands if not millions of hours (more than a life time). This is why I say no one should ever expect to get one.