3 years no precursor drop!

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Posted by: cheetahmode.4623

cheetahmode.4623

hi
i have been playing this game since beta and i did not get any precursor is that part of the game design or is it because you want us to buy it always coz i feel realy lost !

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Posted by: chaosmaster.3196

chaosmaster.3196

hi
i have been playing this game since beta and i did not get any precursor is that part of the game design or is it because you want us to buy it always coz i feel realy lost !

You can craft your precursors now.

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Posted by: EphemeralWallaby.7643

EphemeralWallaby.7643

The RNG just hasn’t worked in your favor, unfortunately…. They’re just an incredibly rare drop. Similarly I keep reading posts about how World Bosses (especially Teq) are a valid source for Ascended drops, yet I’ve never gotten one… more bone spoons than I can count, lol.

You can hedge your bet, and keep trying for a precursor while saving up money to buy one on the TP. Or, just try and craft them instead.

I feel for ya’.

~EW

(edited by EphemeralWallaby.7643)

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Posted by: DGraves.3720

DGraves.3720

Join the club. …

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Posted by: Tumult.2578

Tumult.2578

1 looted in 3 years here. Although it’s not like it’s easy to tell you have a precursor.
A little blue text somewhere near the bottom of the items description is not that recognizable, assuming you looked at the item description. I bet many have been sold for base value.
Considering it’s likely the most important LOOT you will ever make in the game, I think a Precursor drop should be announced map wide by the game system and the item itself should be almost flashing red and green.

Oh, in all that time my luck has been 6 times better in the mystic forge.

(edited by Tumult.2578)

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Posted by: Ulion.5476

Ulion.5476

Its RNG and more about time spent farming than playing X years. Some players farm a lot, others spend most of their time afk in LA, and some just get lucky. I have gotten a precursor to drop every 1000 hrs or so. When you mystic forging for a precursor you will find a rate of 1/250 attempt with rares or 1/160 attempt with exotic per precursor. The precursor mastery system is comparable to slowly saving gold to buy a precursor instead of see you have to make 1000g for the precursor you want. That is just how rare they are.

Ele – Tarnished Coast
“Quoth the raven nevermore”
Platinum Scout: 300% MF

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Posted by: Renkencen.6127

Renkencen.6127

While I have yet to get a precusor as “drop” but have they change the RNG in the forge?

I doubt anyone will believe me but last month, I was able to get THREE Precusors from the Mystic Forge!

It started when I just putting in 4 random exotic and I ended with The Brand so then I focus on the Caudecus’s Manor reward tracks for the tokens. I picked up a exotic shortbow along the way so I turned the three dungeon weapons boxes into shortbows and ended up with The Dreamer. Same again with the Warhorn Howl.

Just to be clear, I ain’t pushing my luck cos after getting the Dreamer, I tried again with an exotic and 3 other weapon chests and just got a random exotics and same again with 4 randoms.

Right now, I will try one more time (getting these precusors means more time focusing on that specific dungeon reward tacks for the tokens and I’m on the last one) but after that I will do something else with the reward tracks.

Trying to turn those three precusor into legendaries will take a long time without resorting to becoming a gold farmer.

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Posted by: Illconceived Was Na.9781

Illconceived Was Na.9781

hi
i have been playing this game since beta and i did not get any precursor is that part of the game design or is it because you want us to buy it always coz i feel realy lost !

The game is indeed designed so that a tiny fraction of players get the rarest drops and the rest of us can sell unneeded items (that we get right & left) to save up and choose the stuff we really want, including precursors.

Also: you should describe from how many foes you get any loot, since you could have been running dungeons since BETA or farming Orr or playing PvP or WvW or — each of those activities has a drastically different opportunity for precursors, because the number of loot-bearing foes killed per hour is drastically different.

John Smith: “you should kill monsters, because killing monsters is awesome.”

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Posted by: EKAN.4051

EKAN.4051

hi
i have been playing this game since beta and i did not get any precursor is that part of the game design or is it because you want us to buy it always coz i feel realy lost !

Ive been playing the game since release, closing in 5k game hrs, and also never gotten a pre droped (if you mean drops).

Tho gotten like 10 or so from the MF, but probably cost more then gain.

Just get a pre drop from a chest or mob is crazy rare.

“Death is just another path”

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Posted by: Harny.6012

Harny.6012

You can craft your precursors now. [/quote]

You don’t understand.
He wanted one for free, for his loyalty.

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Posted by: Fade to Black.7042

Fade to Black.7042

does it include new ones (the mechanism..), since they’re ascended?

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Posted by: danielrjones.8759

danielrjones.8759

Done 100% map on 30 alts so far have never seen hide nor hair of a precursor. Have got 2 from forge. For me, It doesn’t seem like RNG exist. Seems a given I will never get one. I pretty much resigned to just save and buy.

(edited by danielrjones.8759)

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Posted by: Yalora Istairiea.6287

Yalora Istairiea.6287

cheetahmode: I just got my first Pre drop last month at about ~5500 hrs from Claw of Jormag. I gave up on throwing rare 80s into the MF cause if I would have kept and sold them all instead… I could have bought my Legendary already.

Not sure how many hrs you have logged so far but if you are below that, have faith, there is hope for you yet.

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Posted by: Deedrick.4372

Deedrick.4372

Here’s to another 3 with out a pre drop.... Unless you count all those troll chat links.

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Posted by: Milkshake.4038

Milkshake.4038

Its RNG and more about time spent farming than playing X years. Some players farm a lot, others spend most of their time afk in LA, and some just get lucky. I have gotten a precursor to drop every 1000 hrs or so. When you mystic forging for a precursor you will find a rate of 1/250 attempt with rares or 1/160 attempt with exotic per precursor. The precursor mastery system is comparable to slowly saving gold to buy a precursor instead of see you have to make 1000g for the precursor you want. That is just how rare they are.

Those numbers (1/250 and 1/160) are not correct.

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Posted by: Hanzlo.3148

Hanzlo.3148

1287 days 5600h 0 drops….

Once more into the fray. Into the last good fight I’ll ever know.
Live and die on this day.Live and die on this day.
Gunnar’s Hold – [ACID]

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Posted by: EphemeralWallaby.7643

EphemeralWallaby.7643

1287 days 5600h 0 drops….

…and a lot of fun playing: priceless.

~EW

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Posted by: Lyp Sao.1375

Lyp Sao.1375

0 drops

I never played the mystic toilet in two years.
Only six or seven tries and I got my Dusk.

ofc after I bought Dusk from the TP

Don’t fight the other ants
Fight the queens

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Posted by: Deedrick.4372

Deedrick.4372

Well if you have a spare, I will take it off your hands....

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Posted by: Lyp Sao.1375

Lyp Sao.1375

Well if you have a spare, I will take it off your hands….

I sold it immediately for the price I bought Dusk earlier. So no loss

sorry

Don’t fight the other ants
Fight the queens

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Posted by: Blude.6812

Blude.6812

Ditto. It really sux when you are a consistent outlier on the negative side of RNG.

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Posted by: Ulion.5476

Ulion.5476

Its RNG and more about time spent farming than playing X years. Some players farm a lot, others spend most of their time afk in LA, and some just get lucky. I have gotten a precursor to drop every 1000 hrs or so. When you mystic forging for a precursor you will find a rate of 1/250 attempt with rares or 1/160 attempt with exotic per precursor. The precursor mastery system is comparable to slowly saving gold to buy a precursor instead of see you have to make 1000g for the precursor you want. That is just how rare they are.

Those numbers (1/250 and 1/160) are not correct.

The probably of ~0.5% means that you can not reliably mystic forge a precursor unless you have a lot of gold to spend. Those are the numbers I got from a friend who use to craft precursors weekly. He had all of the legendaries years ago and multiple copies of precursors. The last time I talk with him he had made ~400 precursors. Need to look on forums to see if I can find that post with precursor data.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Guildwars2/comments/32uj3o/data_200_precursors_for_science/

That is the data from someone else in the precursor market. His average was 0.7% chance to craft a precursor. Data from the ~200 precursors that he had crafted at that time.

Ele – Tarnished Coast
“Quoth the raven nevermore”
Platinum Scout: 300% MF

(edited by Ulion.5476)

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Posted by: Milkshake.4038

Milkshake.4038

The probably of ~0.5% means that you can not reliably mystic forge a precursor unless you have a lot of gold to spend. Those are the numbers I got from a friend who use to craft precursors weekly. He had all of the legendaries years ago and multiple copies of precursors. The last time I talk with him he had made ~400 precursors. Need to look on forums to see if I can find that post with precursor data.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Guildwars2/comments/32uj3o/data_200_precursors_for_science/

That is the data from someone else in the precursor market. His average was 0.7% chance to craft a precursor. Data from the ~200 precursors that he had crafted at that time.

I think this guy is clever enough to create less precise data on purpose. You cannot check it, because you would have to do a lot of attempts to gather enough data. But let’s say that the chance is ~0.7%, I accept it.

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Posted by: Aro.8275

Aro.8275

Never had one drop from a creature, gotten two or three lion keys. Come to think of it havn’t seen a key drop since the update that supposedly made them more common as well.

Gotten one from the Karka pre’s like candy event (man what a lag fest but it was fun). And two last month from flushing the mystic toilet. At this rate won’t see another for 3 more years or whenever I get HoT in order to craft two Moots.

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Posted by: Danikat.8537

Danikat.8537

I’ve been playing since the first day of headstart, never taken a long break and I’ve never had a precursor drop at all. However I don’t find it surprising.

Firstly I’ve actually played for “only” 2,881 hours in that time. More importantly almost half of it has been spent on characters below level 80 who are much less likely to get a precursor as most loot scales to your character.

Add in time spend in low level areas (where there’s less chance of level 80 exotics dropping) and time spend afk, crafting, climbing the scenery, taking screenshots, gathering materials and doing other things that have absolutely no chance of getting a precursor and I’m left with relatively little time in which I could have gotten one.

Of course it’s impossible to say how much time there is when I had a chance at a precursor because I didn’t keep track and neither did the game, but it’s not a lot compared to the 3.5 years I’ve been playing.

It’s possible I could have gotten one because there’s a (very small) chance each time you do something that could give a level 80 exotic. In theory it’s possible to get one from the very first high level enemy you kill. But on the balance of probability it’s not at all surprising I’ve “been unlucky” and that other people who spend their time doing different things (farming high level maps or playing WvW for example) will be “more lucky” than me.

Danielle Aurorel, Dear Dragon We Got Your Cookies [Nom], Desolation (EU).

“Life’s a journey, not a destination.”

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Posted by: Tiger Ashante.1792

Tiger Ashante.1792

hi
i have been playing this game since beta and i did not get any precursor is that part of the game design or is it because you want us to buy it always coz i feel realy lost !

Don’t give up, your luck may change. I was the same 3.5 years no drop. I long believed precursors were a phantom, an illusion created to give us hope they actually exist out there in the world, like Santaclaus.

Then just today, i went to Southsun Cove and as always when i go there, i do the JP next to the entrance and then jump down on the ship and grab that little chest guarded by the Skelk Elite. I’ve done this hundreds of time so far but today, was the day. I opened that little chest today and guess what got out of it? Leaf of Kudzu! I was speechless, not something i ever expected, especially from that chest but there it was. It was odd too, as only 2 days ago, I put a bid on TP for Leaf of Kudzu, and it was nice to cancel it and get my money back. But nothing beat that feeling of realising, yes, they actually do exist and i finally got one! So you never know when and where luck may find you. And good luck in your endeavors, i hope you too finally get one.

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Posted by: moony.5780

moony.5780

hi
i have been playing this game since beta and i did not get any precursor is that part of the game design or is it because you want us to buy it always coz i feel realy lost !

You can craft your precursors now.

its cheaper to buy one from TP than to craft them XD…..

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Posted by: Aidan Savage.2078

Aidan Savage.2078

hi
i have been playing this game since beta and i did not get any precursor is that part of the game design or is it because you want us to buy it always coz i feel realy lost !

You can craft your precursors now.

its cheaper to buy one from TP than to craft them XD…..

Unless oyu want one of the new legendaries.

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Posted by: Shylock.4653

Shylock.4653

hi
i have been playing this game since beta and i did not get any precursor is that part of the game design or is it because you want us to buy it always coz i feel realy lost !

RNG isn’t tied on time, it is tied on tries. So if you play a lot in short time you have better changes than playing very little over long time.

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Posted by: Vavume.8065

Vavume.8065

Stating you have played for 3 years is kinda meaningless, you could have only played for 3 hours in all that time, /age would be a far better indicator of your luck.

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Posted by: Endless Soul.5178

Endless Soul.5178

I did get a Black Lion Key drop from a mob in Bloodtide Coast yesterday, however, I doubt I’ll ever get a precursor drop.

Asura characters: Zerina | Myndee | Rissa | Jaxxi | Feyyt | Bekka | Sixx | Akee | Tylee | Nuumy
| Claara
Your skin will wrinkle and your youth will fade, but your soul is endless.

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Posted by: seabhac.5346

seabhac.5346

I am also a member of this fine ‘zero precursor since launch’ club! I have 2 legendary weapons only because I bought the precursors for them. Each one took about a year to earn the gold to buy the precursor and all the mats to craft.

So, yeah. Not a club I willingly joined… just unlucky enough to meet the membership requirements!

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Posted by: Blockhead Magee.3092

Blockhead Magee.3092

FWIW I haven’t gotten a precursor drop and I’ve played since launch (thousands of hours across all game modes). My wife has played more than me and has gotten one. Our guild leader uses the mystic toilet several times a week and has crafted 218 precursors to date. He never has any money though, he sells the pre and buys exotics to throw into the forge and get another. RNG is evil.

I’d wager most of us don’t get the drops, but buy what we need (or craft now).

SBI

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Posted by: Ayrilana.1396

Ayrilana.1396

hi
i have been playing this game since beta and i did not get any precursor is that part of the game design or is it because you want us to buy it always coz i feel realy lost !

You can craft your precursors now.

its cheaper to buy one from TP than to craft them XD…..

There are a lot where it’s cheaper to craft them.

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Posted by: Werdx.2059

Werdx.2059

People need to understand,its not in Arena Net interest for us to get gold.

Someone who has large knowledge about computers and games,made post once and explained in details how RNG works.It is far from what Arena Net telling us.

When comes to magic find %,that’s just a myth,because i am running with 500 magic find all the time,never got item worth over 5 gold.I am getting same loot as someone who just started with game,and has 10 magic find.

I had 2000 different HoT bags ,which are affected with magic find,on account that has 7% magic find vs mine which had at that time 540% mf with all possible buffs.Got same things,and there was nothing different.

(edited by Werdx.2059)

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Posted by: moony.5780

moony.5780

hi
i have been playing this game since beta and i did not get any precursor is that part of the game design or is it because you want us to buy it always coz i feel realy lost !

RNG isn’t tied on time, it is tied on tries. So if you play a lot in short time you have better changes than playing very little over long time.

unluckily rng with computers is never real rng..bcs the system tend to go to the same nrs again and again..so there are really lucky acc and notlucky acc

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Posted by: maxwelgm.4315

maxwelgm.4315

People who gamble the TP or Teq as their main source of activity (or real life lottery for that matter) really need to rethink their focus as players (or citizens :P);

There is a concept in probability theory relevant for things which are either very likely to happen or very unlikely to, which is dangerously called “Almost Surely” (dangerously because it has a precise definition not necessarily identical to the usual English language term). Basically, it means the following: if something will almost surely occur, it will then happen with a very high probability (say, you are 99.999999% likely to get wet naked under rain), and should you have infinite time to measure infinitely many outcomes of that something, then it will happen, at least once, no matter what (you may [kind of] miraculously not get wet for some time naked under rain, but oh boy will you get wet after hours, let alone infinitely many).

Now I know this looks obvious but bear with me here and consider the opposite: say you have a probability of 0.00625 of getting that sexy precursor you want. I took that number from the 1/160 someone mentioned above and did not verify, doesn’t matter anyway, what matters to me, is that it’s very low. Now, this is not only low, like 1% low, it’s really low, in fact, a pessimist would tell you it might as well be considered zero. This event, as the above definition would induce us to think, will still happen, at least once, given infinite time and rare equipment, but question the practicality of this: surely, in average, you would have spent much more gold than the whole price of a legendary just to gamble for it! For more information, these two wikipedia articles (yup, wikipedia articles) will enlighten you on trying unprobable things for too much time/money:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Almost_surely
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Infinite_monkey_theorem

That’s not to say you shouldn’t do Teq, or throw stuff on Zommoros, when you feel like it. Who knows? But please do not count on it as your prime source for anything, because it will almost surely work

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Posted by: Ayrilana.1396

Ayrilana.1396

hi
i have been playing this game since beta and i did not get any precursor is that part of the game design or is it because you want us to buy it always coz i feel realy lost !

RNG isn’t tied on time, it is tied on tries. So if you play a lot in short time you have better changes than playing very little over long time.

unluckily rng with computers is never real rng..bcs the system tend to go to the same nrs again and again..so there are really lucky acc and notlucky acc

No. There isn’t.

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Posted by: moony.5780

moony.5780

hi
i have been playing this game since beta and i did not get any precursor is that part of the game design or is it because you want us to buy it always coz i feel realy lost !

RNG isn’t tied on time, it is tied on tries. So if you play a lot in short time you have better changes than playing very little over long time.

unluckily rng with computers is never real rng..bcs the system tend to go to the same nrs again and again..so there are really lucky acc and notlucky acc

No. There isn’t.

rng for machines is impossible..thats one of the first things electricengineers learn.

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Posted by: Ayrilana.1396

Ayrilana.1396

hi
i have been playing this game since beta and i did not get any precursor is that part of the game design or is it because you want us to buy it always coz i feel realy lost !

RNG isn’t tied on time, it is tied on tries. So if you play a lot in short time you have better changes than playing very little over long time.

unluckily rng with computers is never real rng..bcs the system tend to go to the same nrs again and again..so there are really lucky acc and notlucky acc

No. There isn’t.

rng for machines is impossible..thats one of the first things electricengineers learn.

Doesn’t mean that there are lucky and unlucky accounts as a result.

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Posted by: Milkshake.4038

Milkshake.4038

rng for machines is impossible..thats one of the first things electricengineers learn.

You can easily make real rng if you need it: http://www.idquantique.com/random-number-generation

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Posted by: Attis.8367

Attis.8367

I bought Dawn on TP and created Sunrise for my mesmer.

Some weeks later, I got a precursor drop (Spark) from lvl 10 molten bro fractal chest.

I have 1300 hours in the game,

Until Spark, I got nothing valuable (say worth more than 10 gold) from drops.

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Posted by: Halvorn.9831

Halvorn.9831

rng for machines is impossible..thats one of the first things electricengineers learn.

If you learned that, change the place where you learn. No good will come from there. This is plain wrong.

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Posted by: Danikat.8537

Danikat.8537

hi
i have been playing this game since beta and i did not get any precursor is that part of the game design or is it because you want us to buy it always coz i feel realy lost !

You can craft your precursors now.

its cheaper to buy one from TP than to craft them XD…..

There are a lot where it’s cheaper to craft them.

When HoT first came out most precursors were cheaper to buy than to craft. But that’s because the price crashed shortly after precursor crafting was announced, as a result of a lot of people rushing to sell ones they’d been saving because they assumed crafting would be cheap and easy and bring the price down even more.

Have a look at these two for example: The Lover and Zap and you can see a big increase in sell listings and resulting drop in price in March 2015 when precursor collections were announced and again in November 2015 when HoT came out. (You will need to set the graph to display ‘all’ and hide buy listings as they make sales hard to see.)

At the same time (when HoT released and even before for obvious things like T5 and 6 materials) the demand for everything involved in precursor crafting shot up and as a result the prices rose.

Now things are starting to calm down the difference is less significant and some precursors have actually become cheaper to craft. Over time it will probably become roughly equal, although precursors from other sources and other things which need the same materials will continue to have an effect.

Danielle Aurorel, Dear Dragon We Got Your Cookies [Nom], Desolation (EU).

“Life’s a journey, not a destination.”

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Posted by: Ayrilana.1396

Ayrilana.1396

hi
i have been playing this game since beta and i did not get any precursor is that part of the game design or is it because you want us to buy it always coz i feel realy lost !

You can craft your precursors now.

its cheaper to buy one from TP than to craft them XD…..

There are a lot where it’s cheaper to craft them.

When HoT first came out most precursors were cheaper to buy than to craft. But that’s because the price crashed shortly after precursor crafting was announced, as a result of a lot of people rushing to sell ones they’d been saving because they assumed crafting would be cheap and easy and bring the price down even more.

Have a look at these two for example: The Lover and Zap and you can see a big increase in sell listings and resulting drop in price in March 2015 when precursor collections were announced and again in November 2015 when HoT came out. (You will need to set the graph to display ‘all’ and hide buy listings as they make sales hard to see.)

At the same time (when HoT released and even before for obvious things like T5 and 6 materials) the demand for everything involved in precursor crafting shot up and as a result the prices rose.

Now things are starting to calm down the difference is less significant and some precursors have actually become cheaper to craft. Over time it will probably become roughly equal, although precursors from other sources and other things which need the same materials will continue to have an effect.

Zap costs 574G to craft with a buy order of 865G. The Lover, like most wood-based precursors, is better to buy on the TP.

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Posted by: Fernling.1729

Fernling.1729

rng for machines is impossible..thats one of the first things electricengineers learn.

If you learned that, change the place where you learn. No good will come from there. This is plain wrong.

http://programmers.stackexchange.com/questions/124233/why-is-it-impossible-to-produce-truly-random-numbers

True RNG is not possible, but true RNG is not necessary.

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Posted by: Danikat.8537

Danikat.8537

hi
i have been playing this game since beta and i did not get any precursor is that part of the game design or is it because you want us to buy it always coz i feel realy lost !

You can craft your precursors now.

its cheaper to buy one from TP than to craft them XD…..

There are a lot where it’s cheaper to craft them.

When HoT first came out most precursors were cheaper to buy than to craft. But that’s because the price crashed shortly after precursor crafting was announced, as a result of a lot of people rushing to sell ones they’d been saving because they assumed crafting would be cheap and easy and bring the price down even more.

Have a look at these two for example: The Lover and Zap and you can see a big increase in sell listings and resulting drop in price in March 2015 when precursor collections were announced and again in November 2015 when HoT came out. (You will need to set the graph to display ‘all’ and hide buy listings as they make sales hard to see.)

At the same time (when HoT released and even before for obvious things like T5 and 6 materials) the demand for everything involved in precursor crafting shot up and as a result the prices rose.

Now things are starting to calm down the difference is less significant and some precursors have actually become cheaper to craft. Over time it will probably become roughly equal, although precursors from other sources and other things which need the same materials will continue to have an effect.

Zap costs 574G to craft with a buy order of 865G. The Lover, like most wood-based precursors, is better to buy on the TP.

Sorry I should have made that clearer: I was only using them as an example of the volume of sell orders jumping up and the price dropping when precursor collections were announced and I only used those two because they were the first precursors I remembered the name of.

They weren’t supposed to be examples of ones that are cheaper to buy, or cheaper to craft.

Danielle Aurorel, Dear Dragon We Got Your Cookies [Nom], Desolation (EU).

“Life’s a journey, not a destination.”

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Posted by: Danikat.8537

Danikat.8537

rng for machines is impossible..thats one of the first things electricengineers learn.

If you learned that, change the place where you learn. No good will come from there. This is plain wrong.

http://programmers.stackexchange.com/questions/124233/why-is-it-impossible-to-produce-truly-random-numbers

True RNG is not possible, but true RNG is not necessary.

The important thing is that it is possible to have simulated RNG that has absolutely no connection to your account – so that even if it’s not completely random it will be equally random for everyone and no one will be guaranteed better or worse results.

Which does seem to be the case in GW2. Or at least the only evidence I’ve seen against it is purely anecdotal and more often than not along the lines of “My friend just pulled his 3rd precursor from the Mystic Forge, I once threw some rares in there and I lost money so obviously I have an unlucky account that will never get any good drops” with a follow up post further down where they admit that yes their friend does combine rares or exotics in the Forge several times a week and has never kept track of the results but suspects he’s lost more gold than he’s made overall.

Danielle Aurorel, Dear Dragon We Got Your Cookies [Nom], Desolation (EU).

“Life’s a journey, not a destination.”

3 years no precursor drop!

in Guild Wars 2 Discussion

Posted by: Ayrilana.1396

Ayrilana.1396

hi
i have been playing this game since beta and i did not get any precursor is that part of the game design or is it because you want us to buy it always coz i feel realy lost !

You can craft your precursors now.

its cheaper to buy one from TP than to craft them XD…..

There are a lot where it’s cheaper to craft them.

When HoT first came out most precursors were cheaper to buy than to craft. But that’s because the price crashed shortly after precursor crafting was announced, as a result of a lot of people rushing to sell ones they’d been saving because they assumed crafting would be cheap and easy and bring the price down even more.

Have a look at these two for example: The Lover and Zap and you can see a big increase in sell listings and resulting drop in price in March 2015 when precursor collections were announced and again in November 2015 when HoT came out. (You will need to set the graph to display ‘all’ and hide buy listings as they make sales hard to see.)

At the same time (when HoT released and even before for obvious things like T5 and 6 materials) the demand for everything involved in precursor crafting shot up and as a result the prices rose.

Now things are starting to calm down the difference is less significant and some precursors have actually become cheaper to craft. Over time it will probably become roughly equal, although precursors from other sources and other things which need the same materials will continue to have an effect.

Zap costs 574G to craft with a buy order of 865G. The Lover, like most wood-based precursors, is better to buy on the TP.

Sorry I should have made that clearer: I was only using them as an example of the volume of sell orders jumping up and the price dropping when precursor collections were announced and I only used those two because they were the first precursors I remembered the name of.

They weren’t supposed to be examples of ones that are cheaper to buy, or cheaper to craft.

Oh ok.

3 years no precursor drop!

in Guild Wars 2 Discussion

Posted by: Aidan Savage.2078

Aidan Savage.2078

hi
i have been playing this game since beta and i did not get any precursor is that part of the game design or is it because you want us to buy it always coz i feel realy lost !

RNG isn’t tied on time, it is tied on tries. So if you play a lot in short time you have better changes than playing very little over long time.

unluckily rng with computers is never real rng..bcs the system tend to go to the same nrs again and again..so there are really lucky acc and notlucky acc

And this is why I have the below post bookmarked.

Threads like these only show it’s a PERCEIVED problem, not an actual, provable, fixable, problem. Perceived =/= real.

Second, those complaining about lack of drops have a notable LACK of information about what they’re doing. Brand new accounts? Most of them are probably doing open world stuff, things that help level characters and AP. The “old” accounts? Sitting in LA griping or running dungeons. On top of that, the devs arent going to say kitten, because they’ve [b]already stated it[/i]. Why would they repeat something that players have been repeating when it’s clear people who are utterly convinced otherwise (like those wearing tinfoil) refuse to listen? For you, their silence may be an indirect confirmation of an “issue,” but for the rest of us, them not saying anything is perfectly reasonable.

Why is it reasonable? One, JS has stated nothing about your account (this includes your serial code, for mr tinfoil above that mentioned it) other than your magic find boost affects RNG. Two, he’s stated it repeatedly in multiple threads. Three, he’s the game’s Economist, someone who’s definitely going to know more about the RNG than say, Gaile. Especially when said RNG has an impact on the economy he’s in charge of monitoring. Four, a working RNG is going to have outliers, both those with abysmal luck, like the OP of every friggin “RNGesus hates meh” thread, and those who can pull out back to back precursors. I’m in the middle of the average and better luck right now, having recently pulled an ascended chest out of a champ bag. If I was on my desktop I’d upload a picture of it. Fifth, Anet probably understands there’s no reasoning with these people, so arent going to validate their non-concerns, whether with an affirmative or not.

As a sidenote, the OP of one of the other threads has been directly told by JS that account-determined luck is a steaming pile of dolyak kitten. Twice.

Finally, you get to/make a good point. Does the system work? Yes. Does the system work as intended? Quite likely. Does the system work as players think it was intended? Clearly not when you get threads like this. The last one is where a lot of players base their “it dont work” argument. It’s also why JS made a thread asking about the different options working WITH rng (not replacing) with alternate systems, similar to dungeon tokens and fractal relics. While the same idea, they’re different systems- one is for obtaining loot you cant get without doing the dungeon (sans pvp) even though the dungeon doesnt drop it directly (be nice if it could), and the other is a system for obtaining loot if RNG doesnt roll in your favor to give you the exact one you want/need.