Guild Wars 2

If you got yours from the mystic forge, what did you put in? I’m wondering if I need something specific or not.

There are some basic rules about the types of weapons to throw in (level and rarity for example), and you can always throw in 4 of the same type to force the same type to be given back, but mostly what you need is good old fashioned luck, and lots of it.

Throw in a lot of high level Exotics for best results.

When I use the MF, I use only exotics and of the same type.
(IE, 4 GS or 4 scepters, or you get the idea)
Since August 2014 I have gotten Dusk, Storm, the Axe, the Shortbow.
I use the items that have a specific name, not the generic blah blah berserk XXX.
I only use the MF a couple times a week, some times I get lucky, sometimes I don’t.

exotics so much better than rares that they’re worth it?…

the chance is higher, I wouldn’t necs buy exotics and throw them in – many end up worse off than buying the pre outright. I tend to store them up from drops and throw them in every few weeks and also throw in random rares daily. I’ve netted 1 precursor in about 9 months of doing that.

If you are planning on getting HoT, there will a scavenger hunt of sorts. that will be a better to do really.

Fenom.9457:

exotics so much better than rares that they’re worth it?…

I put in 400g worth of exotics and 200 of rares couple days ago. I got The Legend at the 2nd last craft on the rares.

Its RNG, but I think most people that have the bank. Use rares, because they are cheaper, and probably not too big of a % chance to make exotics worth it.

People throw up to 2500g in w/o getting one. Some get it at their first, 30th and 50th attempt. Its just random.

Pandeh.5248:

Its just random.

I think DR kicks in randomly for RNG as well. In my experience there seems to be alot higher chance to actually succeed on your first couple of tries when doing just a couple every other day on different characters, than doing it constantly on just one character. But maybe that’s just me.

I put in four different dungeon token long bows.

Jenstone.6891:

I use the items that have a specific name, not the generic blah blah berserk XXX.

According to devs, named exotics have exactly the same chance of producing a precursor as any other exotics of the same level.

Fenom.9457:

exotics so much better than rares that they’re worth it?…

Mostly its cheaper to throw in rares.

The chance to get an exotic from 4 rares is 20% on average and for 5 forge attempts with rares, you need 16 weapons (4+3+3+3+3), as you get 1 rare back the first 4 attempts.
To forge an exotic with exotics, you need 4.
Most rare weapons are craftable for 40-kitten atm or 50s on the tp.
If we take the 50s, the chance to get an exotic back from the forge costs you 8g.
Most exotic weapons are available for 3g on buy order, as you need 4, you pay 12g for an attempt for a precursor.

In general, the 4 weapons you put in need a combined level 300 or higher, 75 on average.
The cheapest would be to craft 3 level 80 rares and a beaded weapon, which is level 60 and costs about 25s to craft, plus 1500 karma.

Dawdler.8521:

Pandeh.5248:

Its just random.

I think DR kicks in randomly for RNG as well. In my experience there seems to be alot higher chance to actually succeed on your first couple of tries when doing just a couple every other day on different characters, than doing it constantly on just one character. But maybe that’s just me.

Yup, and if I had bought 8 less rares than I did I would of not gotten my drop.

I would probably take a break from the game, feeling sad, stupid and that I had wasted alot of gold.

As for MF being affected by DR. I think Anet should and would, and it would probably been a topic brought up by the players throwing thousands of rares into the forge every week/day.

Dawdler.8521:

Pandeh.5248:

Its just random.

I think DR kicks in randomly for RNG as well. In my experience there seems to be alot higher chance to actually succeed on your first couple of tries when doing just a couple every other day on different characters, than doing it constantly on just one character. But maybe that’s just me.

How much have you forged?

I forged over 200+, here’s my data with pictures:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Guildwars2/comments/32uj3o/data_200_precursors_for_science/

If you’re gonna chuck in exotic weapons, use dungeon exotics. It’s profitable either way because it’s a way to turn Dungeon tokens (Or PvP reward tracks) into gold since you get sellable exotics out of it. And if you get a precursor in the process, all the better. If you enjoy dungeon running or PvP thats a good way to have a chance at a pre without actually spending gold on gambling.

(And for what it’s worth, I did happen to get Dawn from doing so. Pure dumb luck though)

I always buy the 3 cheapest exotic weapons I can get for dungeon-tokens and throw them in together with a mystic-forge-stone. Still no luck…

Wanze.8410:

Fenom.9457:

exotics so much better than rares that they’re worth it?…

Mostly its cheaper to throw in rares.

The chance to get an exotic from 4 rares is 20% on average and for 5 forge attempts with rares, you need 16 weapons (4+3+3+3+3), as you get 1 rare back the first 4 attempts.
To forge an exotic with exotics, you need 4.
Most rare weapons are craftable for 40-kitten atm or 50s on the tp.
If we take the 50s, the chance to get an exotic back from the forge costs you 8g.
Most exotic weapons are available for 3g on buy order, as you need 4, you pay 12g for an attempt for a precursor.

In general, the 4 weapons you put in need a combined level 300 or higher, 75 on average.
The cheapest would be to craft 3 level 80 rares and a beaded weapon, which is level 60 and costs about 25s to craft, plus 1500 karma.

I gonna play around a bit with esoterics numbers. Without diminishing his efforts, i think 200 precursors is still a small sample size but for now, i will take his numbers as being correct, meaning the droprate of a pre is 0.7% or 143 forge attempts with an exotic outcome. If you use exotics, its pretty simple, you will need 4 + 142*3=430 exotics in order to forge a pre on your 143rd attempt.

Now for rares. As already mentioned, you need 16 rares to forge an exotic, assuming you get one every 5th attempt. To get 143 attempts, you need to forge 108 exotics, which you can then use to make another 35 attempts, adding up to 143 forged exotics, with 3 exos to spare.
108*16=1726 rares on average.

1726/430 is ~4, which seems to be the golden price ratio for determining if its cheaper to use rares or exotics.

If the average price to obtain an exotic is more than 4 times higher than the average rare weapon, its cheaper to use rares.

Lets have a look on average prices on the tp for the most expensive precursors, rares and exotics.

Legend: 1030g buy order/1200g lowest listing
Rare Staves: 45s/65s
Average price of crafting Legend with rare staves: 777g/1122g
Exotic Staves: 3g/4.5g
Average price of crafting Legend with exo staves: 1290g/1935g

Dusk: 1220g/1230g
rare GS: 45s/55s
Dusk with rares: 777g/950g
exo GS: 3g/4g
Dusk with exos: 1290g/1720g

Note: I am not sure, if both dusk and dawn are on the loot table for exotics from the forge seperately or not. My guess would be that they are not, so once you get an exo GS from the forge, you roll for it being a pre and if it is, you make a 2nd roll to determine if its dusk or dawn. In that case, you have to add the prices of dusk and dawn and divide it by 2.

Spark: 970g/1080g
rare daggers: 42s/58s
Spark with rares: 725g/1001g
exo daggers: 3g/4g
Spark with exos: 1290g/1720g

I think a pattern becomes apparent, if you want to forge an expensive precursor, get rares on buy order or craft them yourself.

Lets have a loog at using random weapons:
Cheapest exos: 1.2g/2g
Forge a random pre with random exos: 516g/860g
Cheapest rares: 25s/35s
Forge a random pre with random rares: 432g/605g

TL/DR: Use rares or buy my precursors from the tp

All 3 I got was from pure random lv80 rares weapons. 2 with 4 random weapons, and one was with 3 random weapons + 1 mystic forge stone.

Fenom.9457:

exotics so much better than rares that they’re worth it?…

It’s more that you have a better chance of getting what you want specifically with exotics. Looking at different scenarios:

4 exotic weapons of the same type. Throw 4 exotic rifles in. You are guaranteed to only get an exotic rifle in return. RNG will only choose from exotic rifles.

4 exotic weapons of different types. Throw any 4 exotic weapons in. You are guaranteed an exotic in return. RNG will choose from every exotic weapon type.

4 rare weapons of the same type. Throw 4 rare rifles in. You are guaranteed to get a rare rifle in return. You might get an exotic rifle. RNG will only choose from rare and exotic rifles.

4 rare weapons of different types. Throw any 4 rare weapons in. You are guaranteed to get any rare weapon in return. You might get an exotic of any type. RNG will choose from rare and exotic weapons of every type.

Add a piece of armor to 3 weapons, and the possible outcomes become multiplied. My brain tells me that throwing 4 exotic rifles into the forge gives me the best chance at receiving back The Hunter precursor. What I’ve witnessed also tells me that some lucky duck can throw 3 rare short bows and a rare sword in, and pull out The Hunter.

rhapsody.3615:

My brain tells me that throwing 4 exotic rifles into the forge gives me the best chance at receiving back The Hunter precursor.

It has the best chance, thats correct. However, currently, the cheapest way to get exotic rifle to forge into the the hunter is to forge rare rifles, which you got on buy orders, as the acquisition of the exotic rifle itself presents a chance on the hunter.

• Diminishing returns does not apply to the Mystic Forge. Nor does magic find.
• The drop rate for precursors under ideal conditions is tiny. You should be prepared to “throw away” 1,000s of gold before getting one — only the very lucky get one without giving away more than it would cost to buy outright.
• Throwing four rifles always yields a rifle. Throwing 3 rifles and a mystic stone or 3 rifles and any other weapon returns a random item.
• Four Exotics have a better chance of dropping a precursor than four rares, but it’s so much more expensive that most “industrial production” methods use rares instead.
• It’s commonly accepted that you need four items totaling 300 levels (so four L75 or three L80 + one L60). For throwing rares, this guarantees you get back an L80 rare or (20% chance) an exotic that has the highest chance of being L80 (there are exceptions for … reasons).

tl;dr the cheapest option is to buy the precursor directly. The cheapest form of gambling is to buy rares on the TP for aggressively low prices and forge those. You can increase your odds by sticking to a single weapon fitting the precursor you want.

Astralporing.1957:

Jenstone.6891:

I use the items that have a specific name, not the generic blah blah berserk XXX.

According to devs, named exotics have exactly the same chance of producing a precursor as any other exotics of the same level.

Yes, that is true.
I am not saying I have better luck with that.
Although, this is how I have gotten all of my 4 pre’s from the MF in the last 9 months.
The OP asked, “what did you put in?”
I am relaying to him/her what I do.
That’s all.

Jenstone.6891:

When I use the MF, I use only exotics and of the same type.
(IE, 4 GS or 4 scepters, or you get the idea)
Since August 2014 I have gotten Dusk, Storm, the Axe, the Shortbow.
I use the items that have a specific name, not the generic blah blah berserk XXX.
I only use the MF a couple times a week, some times I get lucky, sometimes I don’t.

What do you mean items with specific names ? Can you give some examples ? Also, do you put in 4 of exact same items or mix them up ? Same type named items but different ones ? Does that make any difference ?

Tongku.5326:

What do you mean items with specific names ? Can you give some examples ? Also, do you put in 4 of exact same items or mix them up ? Same type named items but different ones ? Does that make any difference ?

Ok, so if I was wanting to try for the GS I might put in:
Kymswarden, Naga Fan, Skybringer, Dhuuimseal
Say for the ax:
Ophidian, Truth, Knot of Justice, Jaws of Death
LB:
Arc, Drockners Recurve bow, Final Curse, Ganadriva

If I need to buy from the TP, I don’t go over 3.5g on the price.
But like with the bows, there are plenty of relatively inexpensive bows for 2g or so.
once a day or 3 times a week, that won’t break my bank.

This is what my method is.
It does not work every time, nor every 10 time.
RNG is RNG, but it is what I do.

I just threw in a mysti stone and the dungeon weapons I got from the reward tracks as I view them as perfect materials to used in the forges (that is if you don’t have any ascended/ exotic weapons of your own). Ok granted they are still valuable for salvage but I favour them in the mystice forge more.

In saying so I don’t remember which weapons I threw in when I got the mace precusor.