Subscription-based MMOs usually give a free month with purchase, so immediately on release there is a tidal wave of players who rush through the game as fast as possible and complain that the game isn’t enough (or is too much) like WoW.
They flood the servers, then complain because they can’t get online fast enough because the servers are flooded. They complain there aren’t enough servers, when new servers open they complain because their buddy got stuck on the new server and can’t join the old server’s guild. They grind through the content like a starving man at a buffet then complain they ran out of things to do. They complain there aren’t enough players at max level, and then when the players get there they complain the newer players are noobs.
After 30 days, the credit card starts getting charged for the subscription fees, and like a cloud of locusts these players disappear into thin air. Server populations drop and all those new servers created to handle the overload are no longer necessary. Late-comers are stranded there and by the time they can move to a more populated server most of the players there are at max level so the new (old) server still seems underpopulated.
A minority of these locust-like players may remain because they have extra cash to afford a sub or don’t have a new game to go to. They harass players in game and post messages to the effect that the mass exodus means Game X is dead and will shut down shortly. They pretend to care about the game but don’t actually say anything constructive or even appear to care about building a communitiy within the game. They are just passing the time until Game Y is released so they can begin the process again.
I’ve seen this happen several times, in the last year or so several games have premiered and expanded. Rift, Cataclysm, SWTOR, TERA, The Secret World, GW2, MoP have been released and the Storm Legion expansion is coming in a few weeks. I don’t play WoW but I’ve tried several games on the list and they have all followed the same pattern.
The only exception with GW2 is that the game does not follow the subscription model, and so there is nothing pushing the locusts onward except the release of WoW’s and eventually Rift’s expansions. On the other hand, losing a chunk of belligerent and impossible to please players to another game doesn’t mean as much to Arenanet because they don’t rely on the sub fees to survive.
Not that it matters in this case because the majority of these players only pay for the box and cancel before the subscription fees kick in. So losing these players, whether they leave on their own or are encouraged to move on because of Arenanet’s actions, don’t make a dent in the long-range plans for GW2 or any other game.
You’re not fooling anyone. The game designers are a smart bunch, and they’ve been studying these trends for years. Yes, newcomers like Bioware make missteps and overestimate the effect their personal tweaks will have on the games and their players. But for the most part it is normal and expected that the game population will drop sharply around a month after launch, when the shiny begins to wear off and the ADHD crowd moves on to the next big thing.
It will be interesting to see the extent to which this happens to GW2, because there is nothing inherent to the game that really pushes these players onwards, once you buy the box you can come back to it a week, a month, a year later for no additional cost. The current drop is mostly due to MoP and will rebound when the shiny wears off there too. The handling of “farming” and “grinding” habits in the short term and long term may also have an effect in encouraging these players to move on, but I suspect it won’t be permanent. They’ll always have a free game to come back to between releases.