Guild Wars 2

Edit: For details of the ongoing anti-competitive beahviour in the masterwork dye market see my follow-up post three down

John Smith, [Had to post this here as your pm box is full]

Is large scale manipulation of prices for masterwork dyes an issue that’s worth addressing?

Background:
Masterwork dyes have high turnover and with margins after trading of 10+s per dye, the profits available are enormous.

I’ve been trading these dyes for most of this year, partly to help equip my characters and partly because I was offended by the price manipulation I saw when attempting to buy dyes for my characters at the regular buy price.

There are two standard manipulation behaviours:
1. Agressive control of supply by a very small number of traders, through regularly placing mass buy orders 1c above genuine purchasers, and then drop these again as soon as the legimate purchasers gave up and left the market. The effect was to widen the gap between buy and sell prices.
2. Holding back supply of a individual dye to the market until the sell price for that dye jumped to around 1g, then slowly selling stock down through the market until its price returned to its original level (recently 40-kitten.

My response to this was to trade at lower margin levels than the dominant traders. This has involved placing higher buy orders (greater than 1c uplift) and lower sell orders (often several silver lower) than the manipulated price levels. For the last few months I have been working to trade masterwork dyes at around 30s buy and 40-43s sell. Although this is returning margins significantly lower than those used by the dominant traders, it has still been surprisingly profitable.

I have also recently had several instances where I’ve identified the price inflation tactic (#2) being set up and been able to forestall this by posting larger quantities of dyes at the standard sell price.

As well as closing the gap between buy and sell prices, this has no doubt also had the effect of significantly reducing the profits the dominant traders have been able to pull out of the masterwork dye market.

Since I started doing this I have seen several attempts to drive me out of the market. My trades have been readily identifiable as I seem to be the only trader happy to share some profits with legitimate sellers and buyers by using increments greater than 1c for buy orders and when selling back (it’s possible there is now one other trader doing the same).

You will have noticed the sudden massive drop in prices for most Masterwork dyes.

Assuming this drop has been driven by a small group of people, it would appear to be a deliberate attempt to drive competitors like me out of the market by forcing losses on recently bought stocks of these dyes.

In commercial markets this sort of behavour is usually illegal. However I realise that the market of a MMO is a different sort of beast.

Is this the sort of market behaviour a problem for GW2?

Thanks

Have you been checking the prices of other things. I think if you do you’ll see that a number of items have dropped in price, starting from about 2 weeks ago to a couple of days ago. I checked several of the fine dyes, they had all dropped in price.

https://www.gw2tp.com/item/20323-unidentified-dye
https://www.gw2tp.com/item/24502-silver-doubloon
https://www.gw2tp.com/item/20740-violet-ice-dye
https://www.gw2tp.com/item/20664-citrus-breeze-dye

Perhaps it’s more related to fewer people playing right now with the content drought than it is market manipulation.

Zenguy.6421:

You will have noticed the sudden massive drop in prices for most Masterwork dyes.

Assuming this drop has been driven by a small group of people, it would appear to be a deliberate attempt to drive competitors like me out of the market by forcing losses on recently bought stocks of these dyes.

In commercial markets this sort of behavour is usually illegal. However I realise that the market of a MMO is a different sort of beast.

Is this the sort of market behaviour a problem for GW2?

Thanks

The recent massive drop in prices for identified dyes has come with the last gem store update and the new bundles, which include Unidentified Dyes (account bound but i guess once identified they are tradeable) and Black Lion Keys, so there are lots of dyes coming in from those BL chests also.

I dentified Dyes, especially fine and masterwork ones, have had big price spreads for a long time now, so they are attractive for flippers, so I wouldnt neccessarily agree with your assumption that your competition is just 1 guy or a coordinated group of people.

And even if it was, its not manipulation but how the market in GW2 works.
The competition makes you post higher bids and lower listings, which in good for the general player base because they can sell their dyes for a higher price directly and can buy it cheaper.

The strategies of “market manipulation” that you described usually never work, unless there is a shift in general supply or demand from the player base, especially for items that are not limited in supply to begin with.

The demand for dyes in general has seen a steady surge this year with all the new accounts being created after the 75% off sales earlier in the year and through HoT prepurchases.

Their supply usually spikes with changes to the gem store, like key sales, bundles that contain keys or dyes, special dye kit (like Shadow dyes), which also have 1-2 dozen regular dyes on their loot table, which usually drop hard. Abyss dye, for example, was part of the lions arch rebuild dye kit and dropped from 70 to 30g when it got reintroduced in July and now dropped from 70 to 40g when the new account bundles went live.

Even a newly introduced item to the BL Chest loot tables can spark a sudden supply spike for dyes in general as a byproduct of people going for the new shiny.

Edit: Not all of your perceived competition are flippers in the first place, they might be forgers as well.
For forgers, the price spread of the dye they are placing orders on doesnt really matter. If they want to forge rare dyes, they look at prices for masterwork dyes as a whole and only place orders on the ones with the lowest buy orders.

One masterwork dye might have a price 40s/70s and another one has a price of 20s/30s highest bid/lowest listing. You, as a flipper, might only place bids on the first dye, as it has a higher price spread and profit margin for each flip, the forger will place bids on the 2nd dye, as it has the lower highest bid. Sometimes, a dye is attractive to the forger and flipper at the same time because it has a low bid price compared to all other dyes and a high price spread.

The same goes for sell listings. Someone who dumps a a bunch of masterwork dyes might not have gotten them via buy orders but forged them with cheap fine dyes and paid a lower price than you did, so he doesnt care, if he undercuts you by a couple of silver.

The recent black lion offerings (account jump start/bump) gave account bound un-id dyes as part of the package. This is why the price of masterwork and probably other dyes have dropped in prices (the basic ones). People buy it, open the dyes and dump on the tp.

Real forms of manipulation (which usually fail) are more like:
https://www.gw2tp.com/item/68632-spring-roll (check month chart)

If it’s a natural drop, that’s great – especially as it means people can get dyes for their account cheaper than before.

Wanze.8410:

Identified Dyes, especially fine and masterwork ones, have had big price spreads for a long time now, so they are attractive for flippers, so I wouldnt neccessarily agree with your assumption that your competition is just 1 guy or a coordinated group of people.

While several people play this market, there is one that stands out for the size and pattern of their buy orders (it’s been an lesson in market manipulation watching them work).

Wanze.8410:

The strategies of “market manipulation” that you described usually never work, unless there is a shift in general supply or demand from the player base, especially for items that are not limited in supply to begin with.

I’m glad you said “usually”, because the masterwork dye market is one example where manipulation has been working.

“How?” you ask.

The first part is simple: control the supply. You do this by constantly overbidding competitors using volumes that would take several days to fill. Do this often enough and, even with large potential margins, other traders can’t get enough supply to justify the time it takes to participate in this market.

The second part is breaking even. Once you control supply, the only place people can get the dye they want is on the Sell market, which pushes up the Sell price.

The third part is making a killing. With the first two in place this becomes easy: Buy orders drop off because the only ones that ever get filled are yours; and as they do you can lower your buy price thereby increasing your margin.

For extra profits, watch for dyes that drop off in supply in the Sell market and hold back selling the supply you’ve cornered of these until the undelying demand causes the Sell price to spike.

All this depends on the follwing factors:
1. Low elasticity of both supply and demand
2. Buyers who want quick trades and will pay full price or leave the market when they can’t get that
3. Sellers who want quick trades and will accept lower prices when they can’t get that
4. Low or no cost for placing and revoking Buy orders
5. Someone with the time resources and inclination to dominate the market in this way

The first four are exactly how the masterwork dye market behaves (which is why it’s such a good market to manipualte), and at least one person (identifiable by the size and pattern of their Buy orders) fulfills the last. (FYI, I estimate this person, who adjusts their Buy orders 3+ times a day, at any time has over 1200g invested in Buy orders for Masterwork dyes, and has been making several hundred g/day profit.)

This is why the masterwork dye market has maintained such high margins, despite its healthy turnover and attractiveness to flippers.

Wanze.8410:

Edit: Not all of your perceived competition are flippers in the first place, they might be forgers as well.

Good point. However, forgers have little to no reason to actively repost Buy orders (which is where the manipulation has been occuring) several times a day.

Wanze.8410:

The same goes for sell listings. Someone who dumps a a bunch of masterwork dyes might not have gotten them via buy orders but forged them with cheap fine dyes and paid a lower price than you did, so he doesnt care, if he undercuts you by a couple of silver.

I’ve only seen Masterwork dyes dumped on the market in large quantities a couple of times this year – each time they created a short term blip that was absorbed by the market again within a couple of days.

Manipulation of the Sell market has been done by withholding supply rather than dumping. (The exception has been one early attempt to force me out of the market by driving up the Buy price, then dumping just enough dyes on the market to crash the Sell price temporarily.)

Zenguy.6421:

Is this the sort of market behaviour a problem for GW2?

Thanks

I am not John Smith, but no.

Dyes are account bound now which wasn’t the case at launch that said once a person collects on dye the no longer need to obtain that particular dye. In trading of the cheaper dyes there is obviously a ceiling that will happen when the majority of collectors obtain a particular color. When that happens they no longer have reason to obtain it and the will sit on the TP.

Coupled with the fact there isn’t a limit to how long a dye/item can sit on the TP the higher price will be maintained and even pushed higher in some cases. The supply is is lower than it once was due to the changes with binding it to an account but once the supply dries up and those higher sellers are either sold out or remove there dye the price should pitfall since at the second the TP see’s a clean slate the demand/supply factor kicks and people aren’t basing there prices on some poster from 6 months ago when the demand and supply rates were different. Then again even 6 months ago the prices were probably hovering around the supply and demand limits put in place when dyes first became account bound. If supply gets high enough then the old prices would be ignored but eventually rebound back up when it starts to dry out sine the old postings would remain and it would rubber band back to them.

Tis a bubble simple as that no one is trying to edge out anyone.

That is the tip of the iceberg for TP manipulation, lol. If you pick any niche and learn the typical flow, you will find that wherever there is profit, there is manipulation. Concentrating on one niche in a virtual economy that is manipulated by ANET at will, outside of the players control, is never going to provide guaranteed long-term gain. That’s true for any market. Diversify.

Zenguy.6421:

Wanze.8410:

The strategies of “market manipulation” that you described usually never work, unless there is a shift in general supply or demand from the player base, especially for items that are not limited in supply to begin with.

I’m glad you said “usually”, because the masterwork dye market is one example where manipulation has been working.

“How?” you ask.

The first part is simple: control the supply. You do this by constantly overbidding competitors using volumes that would take several days to fill. Do this often enough and, even with large potential margins, other traders can’t get enough supply to justify the time it takes to participate in this market.

The second part is breaking even. Once you control supply, the only place people can get the dye they want is on the Sell market, which pushes up the Sell price.

The third part is making a killing. With the first two in place this becomes easy: Buy orders drop off because the only ones that ever get filled are yours; and as they do you can lower your buy price thereby increasing your margin.

For extra profits, watch for dyes that drop off in supply in the Sell market and hold back selling the supply you’ve cornered of these until the undelying demand causes the Sell price to spike.

All this depends on the follwing factors:
1. Low elasticity of both supply and demand
2. Buyers who want quick trades and will pay full price or leave the market when they can’t get that
3. Sellers who want quick trades and will accept lower prices when they can’t get that
4. Low or no cost for placing and revoking Buy orders
5. Someone with the time resources and inclination to dominate the market in this way

The first four are exactly how the masterwork dye market behaves (which is why it’s such a good market to manipualte), and at least one person (identifiable by the size and pattern of their Buy orders) fulfills the last. (FYI, I estimate this person, who adjusts their Buy orders 3+ times a day, at any time has over 1200g invested in Buy orders for Masterwork dyes, and has been making several hundred g/day profit.)

This is why the masterwork dye market has maintained such high margins, despite its healthy turnover and attractiveness to flippers.

I think you greatly underestimate the velocity of a global market. Even if it only looks like you and another guy are mostly trading in a specific dye, the mayority sales is still done by consumers and players who sell a single dye.

I also disagree that the dye market has a low elasticity in supply and demand. Especially supply spikes at certain times, which is the main reason, dye prices arte so volatile.
Most of the masterwork dyes have a demand of a couple of hundred, which isnt much on a global scale. If supply gets increased (usually through gem store items and BL chests), buy orders drop quite quickly.

So in the end, you are just taking advantage of a volatile market and whatever strategy you are applying, has little influence.

If supply and demand was as unelastic as you say, it COULDNT work anyways.

Lets say a certain dye is being traded 100 times a day, 50 sold to buy orders and 50 through listings and 100 of these days get created every day.

Now you could block other players by constantly having a large quantity bid as the highest one for 10 days, earning yourself 500 dyes. But you wont block out competition completely, maybe 20 people overbid you with an order for one and got it filled, while you were asleep. Some might lose patience and buy directly, increasing sell listings value.

But once you start selling your stock, you are still in competition with other players, who got that dye from a bl chest or an UI dye, so out of a sudden, supply posted on the tp is larger than demand and the price falls. You will only be able to maybe sell half of your listings until you get undercut.

I dont doubt that the market you are working in is quite profitable and you can help accelerate price swings by various means, like large buy orders, withholding supply etc, but at the end of the day, wether you are active on that market or not, has very little influence on the price evolution, which mostly is determined by supply and demand swings triggered by the general player base, like gem store promotions or a surge of new accounts entering the market as consumers.

You also forget investors, who store their investments for a long time and at some point drop their supply on the market.

In the last 3 months, I bought up dyes for about 2.5k gold that i bought during times like these, when prices tanked. They are sitting in my bank and last time i checked, their value has risen to 6.5k gold.
Maybe i have a stack of a dye in there, that you were “manipulating” over the last couple of days or weeks and right when you decide to start selling your stock, i do the same.

And to get back to your initial questions: This is working as intended and is not anti competitive behaviour. Quite the opposite.

And i also disagree with the term manipulation in this context, because it has quite a negative ring to it.
Granted, I use it myself as it is the commonly used term for these kind of actions.

But i would say the proper term would be market interaction, as you are using the trading post like it is intended.

Even though many people dislike flippers and investors because they think we generally raise prices for them and inflate the market, thats not true and flippers and investors actually play a vital role in maintaining a balanced economy.
Flippers close price spreads by upping bids and lowering lowest listings, investors counter price swings, by buying up items whose supply is greater than demand, so they stop prices from falling to vendor value and once demand becomes higher than supply, they help to counter price spikes, by adding additional supply from their stock that is already available and doesnt have to be farmed by the player base.

@Zenguy

Well a cursory look at Masterwork quality dyes show the price drop aligns with the new Account kits at the gem shop with either 20 or 30 account bound UniDyes. Since you can sell the identified duplicates, the excess get posted. The 30-40% downward price adjustment happens since players undercut one another when they try to sell theirs first.

So nothing to see other than how a market responds when a new source is introduced.

Behellagh.1468:

snip

Not sure why you would try and oversimplify when there’s a great conversation going on above you.

I’ve also been following the prices of masterwork dyes and I have seen interesting spikes. I suspect manipulation, since they are always proceeded by a drop in supply.

Here’s the thing tho: these spikes never last more than a week. Prices spike and drop down, sometimes below the previous equilibrium, sometimes above it.

So I wouldn’t call it “anti-competitive” behavior — I’d call it “aggressively competitive”. Someone sees an opportunity, takes advantage of it, and profits off those who fail to look at the history of the item’s prices before they attempt flipping.

Anti-competitive behavior would be doing something that prevents others from entering the market at all or results in a long-term manipulation of prices. Neither of these things can happen as long as unidentified dyes continue to drop and/or people throw dyes at Zommy to see what he gives back.

Illconceived Was Na.9781:

Anti-competitive behavior would be doing something that prevents others from entering the market at all or results in a long-term manipulation of prices. Neither of these things can happen as long as unidentified dyes continue to drop and/or people throw dyes at Zommy to see what he gives back.

Dont forget crafting. It hasnt been profitable for the longest time but a couple of weeks back, I made a test run and I didnt lose any gold, while crafting color specific unidentified dyes. The profit wasnt great, considering you also have to pay karma but i think its the reason, why some prices stopped spiking.

I wouldnt try it now, though, as prices for dyes have dropped across the board.

Wanze.8410:

Illconceived Was Na.9781:

Anti-competitive behavior would be doing something that prevents others from entering the market at all or results in a long-term manipulation of prices. Neither of these things can happen as long as unidentified dyes continue to drop and/or people throw dyes at Zommy to see what he gives back.

Dont forget crafting. It hasnt been profitable for the longest time but a couple of weeks back, I made a test run and I didnt lose any gold, while crafting color specific unidentified dyes. The profit wasnt great, considering you also have to pay karma but i think its the reason, why some prices stopped spiking.

I wouldnt try it now, though, as prices for dyes have dropped across the board.

I have a spreadsheet that checks unidentified dye crafting profitability which I use every day when I log in. The color that is profitable changes often, but there is usually almost always one that is profitable.

mtpelion.4562:

Wanze.8410:

Illconceived Was Na.9781:

Anti-competitive behavior would be doing something that prevents others from entering the market at all or results in a long-term manipulation of prices. Neither of these things can happen as long as unidentified dyes continue to drop and/or people throw dyes at Zommy to see what he gives back.

Dont forget crafting. It hasnt been profitable for the longest time but a couple of weeks back, I made a test run and I didnt lose any gold, while crafting color specific unidentified dyes. The profit wasnt great, considering you also have to pay karma but i think its the reason, why some prices stopped spiking.

I wouldnt try it now, though, as prices for dyes have dropped across the board.

I have a spreadsheet that checks unidentified dye crafting profitability which I use every day when I log in. The color that is profitable changes often, but there is usually almost always one that is profitable.

Shhhh!

The main thing is there isn’t much demand for spectrum-specific unidentified dyes, so the profitability lasts only a few days (or hours). There are a number of other niches that are consistently profitable in the same cyclic way and for the same reasons: the demand is low so folks can’t craft arbitrarily large amounts of the item(s) and still profit, which means the competition remains low.

Illconceived Was Na.9781:

mtpelion.4562:

Wanze.8410:

Illconceived Was Na.9781:

Anti-competitive behavior would be doing something that prevents others from entering the market at all or results in a long-term manipulation of prices. Neither of these things can happen as long as unidentified dyes continue to drop and/or people throw dyes at Zommy to see what he gives back.

Dont forget crafting. It hasnt been profitable for the longest time but a couple of weeks back, I made a test run and I didnt lose any gold, while crafting color specific unidentified dyes. The profit wasnt great, considering you also have to pay karma but i think its the reason, why some prices stopped spiking.

I wouldnt try it now, though, as prices for dyes have dropped across the board.

I have a spreadsheet that checks unidentified dye crafting profitability which I use every day when I log in. The color that is profitable changes often, but there is usually almost always one that is profitable.

Shhhh!

The main thing is there isn’t much demand for spectrum-specific unidentified dyes, so the profitability lasts only a few days (or hours). There are a number of other niches that are consistently profitable in the same cyclic way and for the same reasons: the demand is low so folks can’t craft arbitrarily large amounts of the item(s) and still profit, which means the competition remains low.

What I, and I guess mtp, mean is to open crafted unidentified dyes and sell the dyes you get for a profit.
But youre right, sometimes its cheaper to buy an unidentified colored dye than crafting it yourself, thats what i did, anyways.

When the wardrobe changes went live, i made a spreadsheet to determine the real value of unidentified dyes, by calculating the average value of fine, masterwork and rare dyes. At that time, the real value was around 8-12s, while it was traded on the tp for 15-20s, iirc.

Its way easier to calculate for the crafted unidentified dyes, as their loot tables are significantly smaller.

FearedbytheGods.8617:

Behellagh.1468:

snip

Not sure why you would try and oversimplify when there’s a great conversation going on above you.

Because I was responding to his original post claiming manipulation to lower the price, thus messing with his market niche rather than the more obvious cause, a new source of masterwork dyes have appeared.

• It doesn’t take a great deal of research to see that supplies of masterwork dyes all started to increase about the same time of day.
• This also corresponds to the time the spike in the Gem Exchange rate started.
• Spikes like this on a Tuesday suggests an item returning or a new item appearing at the Gem Shop that is popular thus getting players to exchange gold for gems to get it.
• The change in the Gem Shop are the two “new” Account kits.
• These kits contain a number of unidentified dyes that can’t be traded so you must double click on them.

Therefore the logical conclusion in this case is the flood of new masterwork grade dyes is the result of these new Gem Shop items and not an organized plot to force him out of his TP niche.

But I didn’t feel like typing that much originally. And while Wanze is a fount of knowledge when it comes to TP strategies to make large amounts of gold over the long term, there is a much simpler explanation this time.

I’ve noticed some T6 mats have nosed dived too. Totems for instance are down to 26silver each, or where when I was on earlier today. That’s down 10 silver in a week.

BrotherBelial.3094:

I’ve noticed some T6 mats have nosed dived too. Totems for instance are down to 26silver each, or where when I was on earlier today. *That’s down 10 silver in a week. *

Besides being untrue (the lst time totems went over 35s was 4 weeks ago), its completely off topic.

Wanze.8410:

BrotherBelial.3094:

I’ve noticed some T6 mats have nosed dived too. Totems for instance are down to 26silver each, or where when I was on earlier today. *That’s down 10 silver in a week. *

Besides being untrue (the lst time totems went over 35s was 4 weeks ago), its completely off topic.

Then I’m wrong about when it was. But I don’t see how it’s off topic, as the same thing could be happening with T6 mats. Or it just a trend of more people selling there stockpiles of items. And I don’t think it was the 1st time totems went over 36 silver, unless you’ve been keeping track since launch. With out proof, you are talking trash.

BrotherBelial.3094:

Wanze.8410:

BrotherBelial.3094:

I’ve noticed some T6 mats have nosed dived too. Totems for instance are down to 26silver each, or where when I was on earlier today. *That’s down 10 silver in a week. *

Besides being untrue (the lst time totems went over 35s was 4 weeks ago), its completely off topic.

Then I’m wrong about when it was. But I don’t see how it’s off topic, as the same thing could be happening with T6 mats. Or it just a trend of more people selling there stockpiles of items. And I don’t think it was the 1st time totems went over 36 silver, unless you’ve been keeping track since launch. With out proof, you are talking trash.

Proof:

Zenguy.6421:

John Smith, [Had to post this here as your pm box is full]

…
Since I started doing this I have seen several attempts to drive me out of the market. My trades have been readily identifiable as I seem to be the only trader happy to share some profits with legitimate sellers and buyers by using increments greater than 1c for buy orders and when selling back (it’s possible there is now one other trader doing the same).

You will have noticed the sudden massive drop in prices for most Masterwork dyes.

Assuming this drop has been driven by a small group of people, it would appear to be a deliberate attempt to drive competitors like me out of the market by forcing losses on recently bought stocks of these dyes.

In commercial markets this sort of behavour is usually illegal. However I realise that the market of a MMO is a different sort of beast.

Is this the sort of market behaviour a problem for GW2?

Thanks

TP is the best PvP this game has to offer. Even if it was done on purpose, it is part of the free market and I don’t see why you would feel entitled to continue to “own” the market for a specific item. Besides, you could always buy up the new supply and try to defend your turf if you think that it is a true manipulation attempt and not a market shift.

Correction: The sudden drop in price is obviously a natural market shift in response to change in underlying supply.

However, the ongoing practice of one buyer (identifiable by the the volume and pattern of their buy orders) blocking out competing buyers has resulted in articifally high margins in this market.

Of course, whether or not that sort of anticompetive behaviour is actually a problem in an MMO market is a question that only someone like John Smith can really answer.

thehipone.6812:

I don’t see why you would feel entitled to continue to “own” the market for a specific item. Besides, you could always buy up the new supply and try to defend your turf if you think that it is a true manipulation attempt and not a market shift.

Lol. I don’t own that market and haven’t attempted to do so. But someone else has – and very successfully. They’ve had to work hard to do that, constantly posting and reposting their buy orders, but they’ve been able to draw enormous profits out of the market as result. (I know, because I’ve been amazed at how much profit I’ve been making, even though I’ve been getting only a fraction of the supply they have and have been reposting at much lower margins than them.)

Zenguy.6421:

Correction: The sudden drop in price is obviously a natural market shift in response to change in underlying supply.

However, the ongoing practice of one buyer (identifiable by the the volume and pattern of their buy orders) blocking out competing buyers has resulted in articifally high margins in this market.

Of course, whether or not that sort of anticompetive behaviour is actually a problem in an MMO market is a question that only someone like John Smith can really answer.

The high margins are due to the willingness of the general player base to sell to the highest bid and to buy listings directly.

Your Mr X has nothing to do with, unless you can present a proper argument that profit margins would get smaller, once Mr X leaves the market.

Wanze.8410:

Illconceived Was Na.9781:

mtpelion.4562:

Wanze.8410:

Illconceived Was Na.9781:

Anti-competitive behavior would be doing something that prevents others from entering the market at all or results in a long-term manipulation of prices. Neither of these things can happen as long as unidentified dyes continue to drop and/or people throw dyes at Zommy to see what he gives back.

Dont forget crafting. It hasnt been profitable for the longest time but a couple of weeks back, I made a test run and I didnt lose any gold, while crafting color specific unidentified dyes. The profit wasnt great, considering you also have to pay karma but i think its the reason, why some prices stopped spiking.

I wouldnt try it now, though, as prices for dyes have dropped across the board.

I have a spreadsheet that checks unidentified dye crafting profitability which I use every day when I log in. The color that is profitable changes often, but there is usually almost always one that is profitable.

Shhhh!

The main thing is there isn’t much demand for spectrum-specific unidentified dyes, so the profitability lasts only a few days (or hours). There are a number of other niches that are consistently profitable in the same cyclic way and for the same reasons: the demand is low so folks can’t craft arbitrarily large amounts of the item(s) and still profit, which means the competition remains low.

What I, and I guess mtp, mean is to open crafted unidentified dyes and sell the dyes you get for a profit.
But youre right, sometimes its cheaper to buy an unidentified colored dye than crafting it yourself, thats what i did, anyways.

When the wardrobe changes went live, i made a spreadsheet to determine the real value of unidentified dyes, by calculating the average value of fine, masterwork and rare dyes. At that time, the real value was around 8-12s, while it was traded on the tp for 15-20s, iirc.

Its way easier to calculate for the crafted unidentified dyes, as their loot tables are significantly smaller.

I remember this. At the time, I bought large quantities of identified dyes based on the same analysis (granted, mine was less precise). I wound up with more than 100k identified dyes — mostly blue (stacks 54c, with some more stacks at lower prices down through 14c depending on the dye), but also lots of greens (sets of 100 @1s) and some golds (10s). In hindsight, I made the best profit on the greens, which I dumped over a long period. Some of my sell orders are still open, but I’ve sold most of those identified dyes now. I also had some unid’ed dyes, but only 8 stacks or so.

My sell orders might have looked like manipulation.

I appreciate the value flippers provide in giving liquidity, but it’s fairly easy to avoid them if you’re not trading to make money: split the buy/sell spread in half, or even just go over the current high buy order by 10%. They’ll leave you alone, since it’s cheaper to let a few individuals purchase that way than chase full control over all supply. (I can’t get myself to flip because it’s too labor intensive — it’s exactly the kind of labor where software makes sense, but that’s against the ToS, so I’ll leave it to others to do so. <shrug>)

The market is a free market, supply and demand, if you really want an item, chances are you’ll pay a premium price for it, people will only pay as much as they’re willing though, if blue rose dye suddenly rose to 500g, nobody would buy it until it went back down to a reasonable price. there’s nothing wrong with what’s in OP as far as I read.

Zenguy.6421:

Lol. I don’t own that market and haven’t attempted to do so. But someone else has – and very successfully. They’ve had to work hard to do that, constantly posting and reposting their buy orders, but they’ve been able to draw enormous profits out of the market as result. (I know, because I’ve been amazed at how much profit I’ve been making, even though I’ve been getting only a fraction of the supply they have and have been reposting at much lower margins than them.)

Zenguy, what I’ve bolded is the real crux of the problem. You’re not fighting against a player, you’re fighting a bot. This has been a problem with the TP since the beginning. There are 3rd party programs out there that will notify you when your buy order has been covered (gw2bltc.com, for example). I believe this data will refresh every 3-5 minutes. That’s perfectly fine and supported by ArenaNet through the API. The problem, however, is that some kittenes out there have created a macro that’s somehow always signed into their account(s) and will quickly take down all the buy orders that have been covered and then repost at 1 copper higher. A good way for you to test if this is happening is to watch one of the dyes you have a buy order on and keep hitting refresh. You’ll see how fast the bot will take their order down and then repost. It’s near instantaneous and it will be across many items. I noticed this happening a couple years ago when I was trying to flip low volume weapons and armor. There was a bot that was specifically targeting certain prefixes. I just had to give up on those items. I tried reporting a couple times, but nothing ever came of it. I’ve noticed it happening on a large range of items in the ensuing years. The speed of the reposting and the corresponding interval of time (matching the API refresh) is always the give away. Unfortunately, the only advice I can give, since ArenaNet doesn’t seem to be bothered by this behavior, is to move onto a different item. You’ll never be able to beat that bot.

I wouldn’t discount reporting these, when you’ve found them. While Anet won’t respond to your reports, but I’ve noticed the behavior stopping after a report has been made.